316 FXUS63 KGRR 282240 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 640 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light Rain Tomorrow - Scattered Showers Possible Saturday - Pattern shift with rain chances next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 - Light Rain Tomorrow Models and ensembles are in great concurrence on the passage of an upper level trough with a corresponding mid level wave and cold front. The initial trough will begin moving across the Lake late tonight, early tomorrow. Showers are possible beginning towards sunrise in the northwest. NAEFS ensembles has best PWATS in our region in the Ludington region though the best moisture along the front overall remains through northern lower. As the front sweeps across the state throughout the day it will reinvigorate as it reaches southern lower, with showers possible along and south of the I 94 corridor in the afternoon and early evening. Temps tomorrow will remain fairly warm with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. After Max temps of 15 to 20 degrees above normal today and tomorrow, high`s on Friday will seem pedestrian. However, highs on Friday, in the low 69s, will still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lows Thursday night into Friday will be closer to normal, with lows in the 30s. - Scattered Showers Possible Saturday Eyes continue to be on the October 31st forecast. The analysis continues to trend drier, though there is a persistent wave moving from the southwest through the daytime Saturday. Wave of mid level moisture will trek through lower Michigan moving from the southwest to the northeast. The main question remains how much rain will occur. Trends in ensembles and mid range models have best chance of rain through the southwest with scattered showers moving across the state through the afternoon. QPF overall is fairly sparse so light rain is expected as this point. - Pattern shift with rain chances next week Sunday continues to show better moisture streaming into the Ohio Valley and through southern lower Michigan late Sunday. This could bring some showers chances along and south of I 96. There is an increasing disparity in the analysis onward. However, the overall trend is for temps to warm back up above normal, 10 to 15 degrees, by the middle of next week. Long range models are showing a system that should make its way through the inter mountain west and through the Great Plains next week. Moisture boundaries moving off of this system could bring some chances for showers, especially mid next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 640 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Skies are clear this evening, with attention then turning to an upstream cold front across Wisconson. Showers are possible beginning near 6-8z with this front at MKG. Cannot rule out MVFR visbys within the showers. A low (5-10%) chance of thunder exists at MKG as instability wanes, with confidence to low for TAF inclusion. MVFR cigs are likely along and just behind the front as it traverses the area for several hours with fuel alternate cigs possible in showers. Shower activity wanes near daybreak before redeveloping early Thursday afternoon near the I-94 terminals. Celings then scatter out behind the front. In addition, expect a period of LLWS late tonight into Thursday morning as a low-level jet crosses the terminals, with wind gusts to 25 knots likely at MKG, LAN, and JXN at times with the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026... Winds have shifted to the southwest and have begun to increase to not quite criteria. Expect winds waves to increase overnight with Small Craft Advisory conditions from late tonight into Thursday with gusts around 25 knots and wave heights 3 to 6 feet. Highest waves are expected to be north of South Haven. A cold front will move through Thursday, shifting winds to the west throughout the day and then to the northwest by tomorrow evening. This will slacken winds and waves should drop below 4 feet late tomorrow. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion