193 FXUS63 KGRR 201857 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 157 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds still possible through the afternoon - Snow chances continue through the weekend - Multiple weak system bring rain and snow next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 - Strong winds still possible through the afternoon So far the strongest winds with this event on the lakeshore have been 54 mph at the Saugatuck Pier and on land 48 mph at the Jackson airport. BUFKIT profiles still show winds to advisory levels in the mixed layer through this afternoon and early evening. Therefore, wind gusts to around 45 mph or possibly 50 mph will occur through 700pm or so. The low was at peak intensity this morning around daybreak and will continue to fill this afternoon. The window for stronger gusts is certainly closing given the low is in a weakening/filling state. - Snow chances continue through the weekend Light snow this afternoon is related to the surface low off to our north. Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s this afternoon have kept any impacts from the snow to a minimum. Bursts of snow have occurred with little to no accumulation due to the warm ground and marginal surface temperatures. 850mb temperatures are too warm for lake effect snow this afternoon and do not really become cold enough for lake effect snow until Saturday night. Light lake effect snow is possible Saturday night into Sunday. Omega fields do not look impressive so not expecting much in the way of accumulation during this time frame. Can`t rule out an inch or two Saturday night, especially up near Big and Little Sable Points and down towards South Haven. - Multiple weak system bring rain and snow next week Tuesday will bring a clipper system through the area with the chance for light snow. Temperatures look cold enough with this system for all snow. Best chances for some light snow accumulation with this system will be across Central Lower Michigan. Beyond the Tuesday system there is quite a bit of model disparity with another low set to traverse the area in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Given the timing differences at this range in the forecast, confidence in details is low. We have a rain and snow mix in the forecast for Wednesday at this point with a dry Thursday, but this could very much be subject to change. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 116 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 Showers have transitioned to snow with IFR cigs at MKG and GRR and IFR vsbys at AZO and BTL. Periods of IFR conditions will continue until around 22Z when the front will move through and conditions will slowly improve. MVFR cigs will persist overnight as will the winds. There is a 50 kt jet above, though winds mixing to the surface will be 30 to 40kts until the front moves through, between 22Z to 00Z. Conditions will improve after 00Z to MVFR and then improve further after 10Z. MVFR cigs or lower should persist through the TAF period. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MIZ056>059-064>067- 071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion