526 FXUS63 KGRR 071140 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 640 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold this morning, lake effect snow pushing offshore - Brief burst of snow Sunday morning - Moderating temperatures next week with low chances of precipitation && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026 - Cold this morning, lake effect snow pushing offshore The 07/00Z 850mb upper air map nicely depicted the lobe of cold lower tropospheric air swinging across MI, with APX reporting a frosty -21C right about the time the thermal trough was crossing the area. Gradient winds are starting to relax, which will allow land breeze mesoscale forcing to become more prominent; this will turn winds near the lakeshore to an offshore direction, pushing LES bands offshore from southwest Lower MI. Farther north towards US-10, LES is a bit more persistent thanks to the aggregate effect of Lakes Superior/Michigan. However, this too is expected to gradually taper off early today. We are seeing a bit more lake effect cloudiness than expected and this may result in slightly milder minimum temperatures and apparent temperatures than previously thought. Nonetheless, many inland locations could still see wind chills bottoming out around minus 10 F this morning. - Brief burst of snow Sunday morning Our next snow will be tonight into early Sunday morning but is not expected to be impactful. A subtle upper PV lobe is expected to drop southeast across the area. This will be in the right entrance region of the upper jet where moderately ageostrophic upper flow will induce both mid-level ascent and frontogenesis. This is an interesting case in which the fgen axis is more or less pointed in the same southeastward direction that it`s traveling. This means a longer residence time for snow which will nudge up accumulations. However, we are not expecting anything too crazy given that the mid- levels appear relatively stable; this will weaken and spread out the upward vertical motion associated with the response to fgen. There is significant disparity among the short range models about where the presumed northwest to southeast oriented axis of snow will be located. Some models place it right through southwest Lower MI while others place it south of the area. Maximum amounts around an inch seems to be the consensus although localized amounts approaching two inches are not completely out of reach. - Moderating temperatures next week with low chances of precipitation As noted before, we are looking at a transition to ridging followed by a more zonal pattern with a pronounced upper jet across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, indicative of an underlying and relatively sharp low level thermal/thickness gradient. This fast zonal flow pattern makes it difficult to isolate windows of greater precipitation chances, but in general it appears that the late week is more favored. The EPS generally favors snow for precipitation type then, but about 10 percent of its members also advertise freezing rain. This will be something to watch, because although probabilities are low, there is potential for this to cause travel impacts. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 641 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026 We estimate a 10 percent probability of any terminal experiencing IFR visibility or ceiling restrictions prior to 18Z and a 20 percent probability of this occurring prior to 00Z tonight. The only change for this update was to add snow showers with MVFR visibility restrictions after 06Z tonight. Prior to that we will see frequent MVFR ceilings in the neighborhood of 3000 ft AGL. We do not expect fuel alternate ceilings below 2000 feet to occur today. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ039-040. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...TJT

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion