355 FXUS63 KGRR 172033 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 333 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry Mix Tuesday - Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Wintry Mix Tuesday The weather system arriving early tomorrow morning has continued to shift southward. Precipitation trends continue to shift deepening on the location of the warm air advection. Current trends have snow most likely along and north of the I 96 corridor. Along and south of I 96 the warm air advection will cause a lack of saturation in the DGZ. Warm air advection from latest CAMS has +1C at 850mb into the I 94 corridor. That will limit snow production. However, given marginal surface temperatures it could mean some freezing rain/drizzle along with ice pellets at the surface. Best QPF is along and south of the Michigan and Indiana border. The biggest concern will be that the wintry mix will arrive and be strongest for the morning commute. The best chance for accumulating snow will be along and northward of the I 96 corridor, though a half an inch or less is expected. Between the I 96 and the I 94 corridor while snow accumulations are expected, it will have quite the wintry mix, with ice pellets predominate for a period. A wintry mix is expected along the I 94 corridor with the biggest concern to be ice accumulations, especially bridges and overpasses. Given the marginal temperatures any ice accumulations will be along and south of the I 94 corridor. Have held off on any advisory due to lack of certainty with amounts and temps. Temperatures will warm after sunrise, though precipitation will continue through the daytime, especially through southern lower. Precipitation along the I 94 corridor should transition to rain into the afternoon. Tuesday`s evening commute should be cold and wet with slick spots. - Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday Temperatures will continue to warm through the week with a return to the 50s Thursday into Friday. However that will bring a chance for rain Thursday night through Friday morning. Precip amounts will determine on low position, however the trough should sweep through Thursday night though the best QPF remains north and southward of Lower Michigan. Temperatures will continue to trend around to just above normal through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conditions will prevail until snow moves in around 12Z. There will be a quick transition to IFR conditions around that time which will persist into Tuesday afternoon. Northwest winds this afternoon around 10 knots with occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots then go light and variable this evening. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Ostuno/RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion