862 FXUS63 KGRR 020830 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering Light Snow This Morning - Additional Snow Chances This Weekend into Monday - Milder Next Week with Rain/Snow Chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026 - Lingering Light Snow This Morning Lake effect snow continues mainly along a Muskegon to Grand Rapids to Lansing line. This area of snow is expected to shift south before tapering off to flurries later this morning as we lose the better low level moisture, colder 850mb temperatures, and subsidence moves in as the upper level trough shifts east. Additional amounts under an inch are expected, but expect slick conditions for the morning commute due to the snowfall yesterday evening and overnight. - Additional Snow Chances This Weekend into Monday Within the northwest flow with a trough to the east and a ridge to the west we`ll see a few more shortwave troughs move through the region. A quick moving shortwave will swing through during the day Saturday. The better moisture and warm air advection will be during afternoon along with some upper level divergence present with the 250mb jet. The quick nature however will limit accumulations mainly north of I-96 with amounts less than an inch as seen in the HREF and NBM distribution. Looking at sounding profiles we`ll have to watch for a brief period of light freezing rain/drizzle as snow ends Saturday evening. Sunday night into Monday probabilities are higher with warm air advection and better low level jet convergence paired with the positive vorticity advection. Accumulations of an inch or more are highlighted north of I-96 with probabilities of 40 to 80 percent with the highest probabilities north of US-10. - Milder Next Week with Rain/Snow Chances We`ll see a pattern shift next week as the upper level flow moves to westerly and then southwesterly. There is a agreement in this shift in the cluster analysis with a ridge setting up over the eastern CONUS and a trough over the western CONUS. This will bring a period of mild temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. There is a slight chance (20 to 30 percent) for rain and snow showers Tuesday. Better chances for rain (greater than 30 percent) hold off until Thursday. Depending on the timing and surface temperatures of each of these chances we`ll have to monitor the potential for freezing rain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 No significant changes from previous thinking. As expected, visibilities are increasing areawide into VFR territory as snowfall continues to diminish in intensity. Probabilities of IFR thresholds being met overnight continue to shrink, now estimated at less than 20 percent. The main question now is whether ceilings will remain above fuel alternate thresholds (2000 ft AGL) overnight. Some guidance suggests we will see at least a brief drop below that level and have included that in this update. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...TJT

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion