800 FXUS63 KGRR 152333 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 633 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild Weather first half of the week - Mixed Precipitation events Mid week and possibly late week - Snow Possible again late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 - Mild Weather first half of the week Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through midweek. While none of the Max temps are approaching daily records, they are still 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Temps tonight into tomorrow morning will drop back into the upper 20s. The warm daytime temps, some snowmelt, weak flow and cool overnight temperatures should allow for some patchy freezing fog tomorrow morning. A weak short wave trough will swing through tomorrow. However, given the dry soundings, very little rain, if any, will fall. Continue to go with a dry forecast through most of Tuesday. - Mixed Precipitation events Mid week and possibly late week The mid week will be dominated by a negatively tilted upper level ridge that a building large upper level low will undercut. That colloquially is known as a "dirty ridge". That system will be accompanied by warm air advection , a warm frontal boundary and decent forcing along the boundary. NAEFS PWATS is showing 0.75 by 18Z Wednesday. That moisture along with isentropic ascent should bring rain to mix precipitation across the area. The best chance for mix precipitation will be through the northern forecast area, especially the US 10 corridor Reed City eastward. Soundings at Mount Pleasant show higher probabilities for rain, however there remains some chance for -FZRA/RA mix Tuesday night. Models start to diverge, however there remains a chance for a secondary low that could bring more rain Thursday evening into Friday. there is some question on low position and timing, which would determine precip type. So rain/mixed precipitation remains possible - Snow Possible again late in the week. The upper level pattern shifts late this week into next weekend. That would put us back into the cold air and bring another chance at winter. Temps will get back to normal with another chance for snow this upcoming weekend. Still to early to hint at amounts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 VFR conditions at West MI TAF sites early this evening will once again give way to MVFR visibilities in fog /3-5SM/ after about 04Z tonight, thanks to light winds and strong radiational cooling over remaining snow pack. Otherwise, weak/diffuse surface ridging will move across the region, and be located east of MI by daybreak. This will turn winds to the S/SW Monday, with speeds increasing to around 10 kts in the morning, and to 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts in the afternoon. Mid-high clouds will be prevalent, thanks to WAA associated with disturbance over the northern Great Lakes. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Smith

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion