901 FXUS63 KGRR 041852 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 252 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather expected for much of this week - Limited chance of frost Tonight...Better chance Monday Night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 - Dry weather expected for much of this week Strong high pressure building in will bring dry weather through much of the week. Northwesterly flow aloft Tuesday through late this week brings with it some chance for very light rain...though not much in the way of moisture will be available for producing anything too heavy or to widespread. Best chance for that should be north of the forecast area. - Limited chance of frost Tonight...Better chance Monday Night Non-zero chance for pockets of frost tonight in our far northern zones but lower levels should remained mixed enough tonight to keep the temperatures up. There is a better chance for frost Monday night into early Tuesday with less wind and clouds. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 No major aviation concerns are expected over the course of the next 24 hours, 18z to 18z. If there is one, it is the MVFR ceilings that have pressed into the MKG area. Model guidance and satellite loops support a thinning of these ceilings and likely a rise as well given we are approaching the max in diurnal heating. The bottom line is we feel these MVFR ceilings will lift and begin to thin/scatter out over the course of the next 1-3 hours. We are not expecting the MVFR conditions to make it into the other TAF sites. There is a small potential for ceilings below 3k feet at GRR, but not much more than an hour or so. Otherwise we expect clearing to take place later this afternoon and evening with little to no clouds expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Fog should not be an issue tonight given winds just off the deck in the 10-20 knot range. West to northwest winds this afternoon that will gust into the 10-20 knot range will settle to light and variable tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Northwesterly winds to keep waves up through the overnight hours into early Monday. Have extended the existing small craft advisory and added the southern zones where waves will increase this evening. Could see waves linger into mid-late Monday morning for some...though winds quiet down and most of the day should see smaller waves. Tuesday could be another small craft day with breezy conditions expected in the afternoon/evening. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Maczko AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Maczko

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion