420 FXUS63 KGRR 150446 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1146 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally Heavy Snow Through Tonight Near The Lakeshore - Lake Enhanced Clipper Brings Widespread Snow Friday - Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into Early Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Locally Heavy Snow Through Tonight Near The Lakeshore Radar shows a few bands of moderate to heavy lake effect snow have developed over Lake Michigan clipping several of our lakeshore counties. A perusal of the 12z high resolution guidance predominantly suggests that these bands should shift west this evening. Gave consideration to upgrading Van Buren County to a Winter Storm Warning, however radar and 18z CAM trends continue to support the band shifting east into Berrien County which is already starting to occur. Isolated warning level snow amounts are possible in extreme western Van Buren County but confidence in the band persisting for enough time is not high enough to upgrade to a warning. This is highly sensitive to small shifts in wind direction Expect 4-7" of snow across western Van Buren, Allegan, Muskegon, Oceana, and Mason Counties with isolated higher totals possible. The eastern portions of these counties and the rest of West Michigan look to see 3 inches or less. We then get a brief break in the snow for Thursday as ridging takes over. - Lake Enhanced Clipper Brings Widespread Snow Friday The arrival of a potent shortwave and an associated clipper brings our next snowmaker into the region early Friday morning. Widespread snow continues through the day on Friday before transitioning to lake effect snow showers Saturday morning. The lightest snow amounts will be near US-127, and the highest amounts will be west of US-131 where the greatest lake enhancement will be. Isolated areas west of US-131 may see totals in excess of 6 inches. Exact amounts will be fine-tuned over the next several forecast cycles as the current winter weather event winds down. - Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into Early Next Week The trough driving the current cold snap remains centered over the eastern CONUS through at least mid next week. A setup like this is commonly associated with multiple rounds of lake effect/enhanced snow with increased intensity at times as shortwaves reinforce the cold airmass and provide forcing.This will be reflected at the surface as several clippers into mid next week. Accumulation will add up through the weekend into early next week, though questions on timing of waves and associated adjustments to the low-level wind exist affecting placement of the greatest snowfall totals. The other concern is the enhanced cold snap early next week as 850 mb temps crash well into the negative twenties Celsius. This will translate to highs maxing out in the teens and wind chills potentially dropping below zero at night early next week, notably colder than3 recent conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Variable conditions are occurring across the TAF sites as we approach 05z. A dominant lake effect snow band has shifted mainly offshore and certainly west of MKG. Inland, many TAF sites are still being affected by narrow lake effect snow bands that have origins well north of the area (across Northern Lake Michigan and Lake Superior). These snow bands are producing IFR conditions however as both ceilings and visibilities have been impacted. The expectation is that the snow band over Lake Michigan should largely stay out there tonight and should not affect the TAF sites. As the band becomes more dominant overnight over the lake, this should tend to clear out the remaining TAF sites or at least trend conditions to VFR. We feel this will likely happen by 09z at most sites. During the day on Thursday the lake effect band over the lake will try to come back inland, this will likely occur during the midday and early afternoon hours (17z to 21z or so) with some MVFR conditions possible at MKG. Otherwise the daytime will be VFR we believe as high pressure builds in. The next system will begin to affect MKG after 02z-03z Thursday evening with snow and lowering ceilings/visibilities. Winds will gradually taper late tonight and into Thursday morning. The gustiness that is occurring now will trend down as the stronger winds aloft diminish some. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 The Gale Warning remains in good shape with gusts to 40 knots being observed today at our shoreline observation sites. Winds subside below gales tonight with conditions hazardous to small craft persisting at least into the weekend. Freezing spray is also a concern for mariners given the very cold airmass overhead. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-043- 050-064-071. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion