368 FXUS63 KGRR 231812 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday - Showers and A Chance of Thunderstorms Thursday - Dry and Warming This Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday Isolated flurries continue across south-central Michigan this afternoon and will diminish over the next few hours. No accumulation is expected. High pressure then arrives for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe with a dry low-level moisture profile supporting dry conditions. - Showers and A Chance of Thunderstorms Thursday Attention then turns to Thursday as a mid-level wave drives a surface low across the region. The attendant cold front with this low looks to bring rain showers to the area given the arrival of better moisture. Elevated instability will be supportive of a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of I-96 where the front arrives later in the day. This will be driven by an EML advecting into the area. SPC does have areas just to the south of our forecast area outlooked for potential severe weather Thursday. Given high deep layer shear, if we get sufficient instability we can`t completely rule out an isolated hail threat Thursday afternoon towards the I-94 corridor. The GEFS based ML guidance seems to support this as a low but non- zero potential event. However, confidence is low at this stage given questionable instability due to capping and moisture quality and agree with SPC that the best risk is south of us. - Dry and Warming This Weekend Cool weather Friday persists into the start of the weekend as upper- level troughing sets up across the area. However surface ridging and a dry ambient airmass will keep precipitation out of the forecast. Conditions begin to warm Sunday into Monday as large scale ridging displaces the trough from across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 High pressure over the upper Midwest will drift over the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and decreasing winds. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>847. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ848- 849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion