068 FXUS63 KGRR 082351 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 651 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain this Evening into Friday - Snow this Weekend - Rain/Snow Chances into Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 - Rain this Evening into Friday The low pressure system over eastern Kansas will continue to shift northeast bringing a round of rain and a few rumbles of thunder late this afternoon into Friday. There will be plenty of synoptic support with this system as it approaches with upper level divergence, positive vorticity advection, warm air advection, and a strong 60-70kt low level jet. As mentioned before precipitable water values will be around 1 in the north to 1.2 across southern Michigan which is above the climatological max. A band of 1-1.5 inches of rain is possible while most areas see less than an inch. Rain will gradually end Friday morning and may mix with some snow north of M-20. The inversion will prevent winds from reaching Advisory levels, however gusts around 40 mph are expected to develop after sunrise and continue into the early afternoon. There is a chance some stronger gusts could mix down to the surface with the rain and any thunderstorm. - Snow this Weekend Another shortwave trough swings through Saturday bringing a round of snow to the area. There has been a slight trend downward in amounts, however still looking like an Advisory level snowfall along the lakeshore Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. The probability of 2 or more inches of snow is 70 percent or greater along and west of US-131. As snow transitions more to lake effect Sunday morning, most of the accumulations will be focused in southwest Michigan. Northwest winds pick up on the backside of the low with northwest winds gusting around 20-30 mph during the day Sunday with gusts along the lakeshore potentially to 35 mph. Highs over the weekend will be in the low to mid 30s with lows in the 20s. - Rain/Snow Chances into Next Week Within the upper level flow there is not clear prolonged dry break as we see several shortwave troughs move through the region bringing with it rain/snow chances. At this time precipitation is more likely Tuesday into Wednesday with dry conditions Monday. Highs will be in the 30s with lows in the 20s before becoming colder Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 636 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Rain and lowering cig/vis conditions are moving into all locations and will continue to trend down toward IFR/LIFR through the evening hours. Conditions stay fairly poor for much of the overnight period, including significant low-level wind shear conditions continuing through morning at all locations. Winds begin to shift to more of a west-to-east direction in the morning hours as temperatures drop and conditions trend upward toward mvfr in the afternoon hours of Friday. There remains some chance for a few thunderstorms during the overnight hours, which could briefly mix some of the strong winds at 2000 feet down closer to the surface during stronger convective cells. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...AMD

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion