137 FXUS63 KGRR 310510 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 110 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased Fire Weather Concerns - Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 - Increased Fire Weather Concerns Warm temperatures and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-30 percent the next several days will increase the concern for wildfires especially in the conifer forests north of Muskegon- Clare. Gusts up to 15-25 mph are occurring Saturday afternoon which are another component contributing to the concern. Winds on Sunday will be a little weaker, followed by breezy winds again on Monday. This dry pattern is expected to persist into Thursday, with low spread in the solution space among the model ensembles. - Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday The omega block episode over North America is favored to break down later in the week, allowing upper-level shortwave troughs to approach the Great Lakes from the west amid more quasi-zonal flow. The majority of global ensemble members wash at least a modicum of MUCAPE over Lower Michigan on Friday, marking our next potential for a thunderstorm. The arrival window of any precipitation during that day is still broad, which lends itself to greater uncertainty in the high temperature forecast (between lower 70s and lower 80s). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026 No significant changes to the going forecast. Predominantly easterly winds tonight will become light and variable going into Sunday morning. By early afternoon, winds will become westerly at MKG as a lake breeze develops. Only high clouds are expected through the TAF period, with high confidence in VFR given the dry ambient airmass. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 East winds gusting over 22 knots Saturday morning have generally diminished to 10 to 20 knots. Winds will become more northerly by the Sable Points later this afternoon, building waves 1 to 3 feet. Weaker winds are expected Sunday with direction dictated by the daily lake breeze cycle. North winds Monday strengthening 15 to 20 knots should build up some chop especially around the Sable Points, though for now expected to stay below the 3 to 5 foot range. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...CAS

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion