652 FXUS63 KGRR 151745 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1245 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 - Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess Quiet weather pattern continues as a southern stream low tracks south of Lower Michigan today. The northern stream remains separate with a clipper low passing north of Lower Michigan on Monday. We will have to watch model and radar trends tonight to see if any light precip will reach the northern forecast area Monday morning as suggested by some model guidance. Milder temperatures continue as the polar jet remains to the north until later this week. The next chance for precipitation is late Tuesday into Wednesday in an area of warm advection and isentropic ascent with enough moisture to bring rain or mixed precip with the highest chances across the northern forecast area. Thermal profiles of model forecast soundings show potential for freezing rain across the northern forecast area, where there have been a few freezing rain episodes during previous periods of milder temperatures this winter. A second wave of low pressure late in the week could also bring rain/mixed precipitation which should change to snow by late Friday as cold air filters in on the back side of the low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Mainly quiet weather will persist for West Michigan TAF sites. A weak surface boundary will weaken as it moves across state today. Meanwhile, a continued weak surface pressure gradient will permit winds to be light tonight and for good radiational cooling to set up once again. Consequently, see little reason why 3-5SM visibilities in fog won`t develop between roughly 04-14Z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with only some high cloudiness late tonight into Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...Smith

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion