835 FXUS63 KGRR 241154 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 654 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous Cold Saturday Morning Then A Little Improvement - Sunday Snow in Southern Michigan - Cold Week Ahead With Lake Effect Snow && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 - Dangerous Cold Saturday Morning Then A Little Improvement Each location`s history is nuanced, though we appear to be in the midst of the coldest nighttime temperatures since 2019 in many locations (excluding the lakeshore this time, where it is a little warmer under lake effect clouds). For GRR, this morning`s low is minus 19 degrees. The last time it was minus 17 degrees was in 1996, and it was minus 22 in 1994. There is little wind given this pristine radiational cooling setup, though even at 5 mph, the wind chill is about 10 degrees colder. NBM 50th percentile high temperatures today in the mid- upper single digits will be close to the daily record cold highs. More info in Climate section below. Cold weather headlines should expire later this morning as wind chill climbs above -15, though will remain in the single digits either side of zero today. Wind chill may threaten another dip to -15 in some areas Mon morning and Tue morning. Semi-stationary convergence band of lake effect snow will loom just offshore Saturday, though possibly remain over western Oceana and Mason counties long enough to provide additional light accumulation. - Sunday Snow in Southern Michigan Most models continue to show snow affecting southern Lower Michigan Sunday morning through evening, heaviest during the afternoon. This will be on the northern periphery of the significant winter storm across much of the country to our south. Forecast soundings show temperature profiles solidly in the DGZ up to 15,000 feet thick, so even light snow production could result in decent totals. Assuming about a 20:1 snow/liquid ratio, NBM probabilities for 3+ inch snowfall is around 30 percent for Kalamazoo-Lansing, around 50 percent for Jackson, while only about 10 percent for Grand Rapids. - Cold Week Ahead With Lake Effect Snow Global ensembles continue to support temperatures staying below 20 degrees until possibly the end of the week. Another series of midlevel shortwaves amid northwest flow will continue to support frequent lake effect snow Monday through much of the week, though tapering late week for inland areas with high pressure and northerly flow tending to nose in. Tuesday may be a particular challenge with impacts to travel as a Clipper with a surface low produces at least light snow accumulations and brings winds gusting 20-30 mph, resulting in areas of blowing or drifting snow with temperatures still in the teens. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 654 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 IFR with lake effect snow continues near Ludington (LDM) for at least part of the day, elsewhere, some lake effect clouds near the lakeshore between 3,000 and 3,500 ft with flurries this morning. Should be VFR in interior portions of the lower peninsula. Significant winter storm south of Michigan will encroach lower ceilings tonight in southern Michigan tonight, with MVFR to IFR snow possible by Sunday morning especially around AZO, BTL, JXN, and possibly LAN. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Bitterly cold temperatures will continue to increase the ice forming on our rivers. Thankfully, most of our typical trouble spots for ice jams are already mostly or completely frozen over. However, river ice is notoriously unpredictable, and the rarity of this upcoming cold snap will likely create some minor ice jam issues in places that don`t typically have to deal with river ice. For example, the last time it was this cold (2019) the Muskegon River had some ice jam issues at both Bridgeton and Newaygo, and there are already some signs that something similar could be happening again this year. The bottom line is that when we expect very unusual cold conditions, it`s not unreasonable to expect some very unusual river ice issues somewhere. Water levels around ice jams can go up/down much faster than usual, so anyone living near a river should pay extra attention to water levels over the next few days and have a plan to respond if conditions change quickly. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 357 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 For reference, January 24 record cold low temperatures: GRR -19 (1948) LAN -22 (1884) MKG -5 (1970) BIV -12 (1948) AZO -13 (1963) BTL -13 (1948) January 24 record cold high temperatures: GRR 6 (1904) LAN 5 (1963) MKG 7 (1897) BIV 11 (1987) AZO 5 (1963) BTL 4 (1963) Coldest temperatures on record: GRR -24 (2/13/1899 and 2/14/1899) LAN -37 (2/2/1868) MKG -30 (2/11/1899) BIV -24 (2/1/1918) AZO -22 (2/5/1918 and 2/10/1912) BTL -24 (2/12/1899) && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ037- 043. Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS HYDROLOGY...AMD CLIMATE...Hoving/CAS

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion