052 FXUS63 KGRR 251655 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1155 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing rain potential tonight/Friday - Rain Sunday changing to snow Monday, colder && .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 We will be updating the forecast this morning to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area beginning at 10z/5 am EST Friday. Latest model guidance is coming in this morning with no real changes from what the trends have been over the past couple of days. Confidence is high that just about all of the forecast area will see at least a little bit of freezing rain that will cause some travel impacts over this holiday period. We will break out the advisory into two sections. One will be for the far SW corner where any freezing rain will be brief before changing over to rain as temps sneak above freezing. We are thinking mainly a glaze of accretion is expected there. Elsewhere, the sub-freezing temps will hold on a little longer for more of this quick hitting system. Accumulations of ice are likely to be up to a quarter of an inch, with the most the furthest east. Models are continuing to show some localized heavier bands of precipitation possible. We are not worried however that it will equal warning criteria. Any heavier rates will tend to run off, and not increase ice amounts much. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 - Freezing rain potential tonight/Friday Low pressure passing by to the south across Indiana will result in a north to northeast wind today through Friday morning. Cooler air will begin to filter into the cwa tonight from southeast Ontario sending surface temperatures below freezing. Meanwhile, aloft, an approaching low in Iowa and it`s LLJ will pull warmer air northward over the cwa resulting in a classic freezing rain sounding. Overall, the forecast hasn`t changed much during the past few days. QPF has decreased a bit with the latest guidance since yesterday, but we`re still expecting around a tenth of an inch of ice beginning just prior to sunrise and continuing into the afternoon, before the wave moves east and takes the precipitation with it. Surface temperatures will remain aob freezing in the far northeast cwa and those areas will see the most ice; the far southwest cwa might not see much ice at all. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we`ll wait to issue any headlines, since the event likely won`t begin until closer to sunrise Friday. Icy roads/sidewalks/driveways are a distinct possibility Friday morning until they can be treated. - Rain Sunday changing to snow Monday, colder An upper ridge will move over the Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday sending high temperatures into the 40s and 50s Sunday. Meanwhile, low pressure over the Plains will move east resulting in rain Sunday that`ll change to snow Sunday night as colder air flows into the region behind the trailing cold front. Some lake effect snow will develop as h8 temperatures fall to -16c Monday. Snow showers will linger into Tuesday before the cold air lifts out. Another brief shot of snow is possible Wednesday night as a clipper moves southeast across northern Lower, but details remain elusive as this wave of low pressure remains far enough north that it may not impact the cwa. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 This forecast period will see the core of the high impacts expected arrive late in the period at just about all of the terminals. Much of the first 12-16 hours will see little to no impacts with VFR expected to dominate. There is some stratocumulus cloud cover over KLAN as of 17z based around 1500 ft. Satellite trends show this mixing out as it is quite shallow, and ridging is building in. More extensive cloud cover around 5k ft will start moving in toward and after midnight EST/05z. Then, we expect precipitation to start to develop around 10z or so at the western terminals, and shortly after that for the eastern sites. Precipitation is expected to begin as fzra at all sites, and MVFR will arrive at the same time. Temps will slowly rise then through the morning, changing fzra over to rain from SW to NE through the end of the forecast period. LIFR conditions are expected to move in at all sites also. Lightest amounts of ice can be expected at KAZO where a brief glaze is likely, and up to a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation is likely toward KLAN and KJXN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-065>067-073-074. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EST Friday for MIZ064- 071-072. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion