091 FXUS63 KGRR 301221 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 721 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very cold air and chances for lake effect through tonight - Next chance for snow Sunday night into Monday - Temperatures warming towards normal next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 - Very cold air and chances for lake effect through tonight Very cold air has settled into the region this morning with -20C to -22C air in place at 850mb. The -20C level is the threshold where people very much notice the cold and consider it to be cold even by Michigan standards. It is also the threshold where road/travel issues increase as a result of surface air temperatures dropping below values where salt has very limited effectiveness. Thankfully there will not be much precipitation today to complicate travel issues. Air temperatures as of 330am have hit -23F at Leota up in Clare County. Most air temperatures across interior Central Lower Michigan have fallen below zero. Temperatures will continue to drop this morning given an increasingly good radiational cooling setup as clouds and lake effect snow showers end/move out of the area. The Cold Weather Advisory will continue through 10am. Highs today will be in the lower to middle teens F. Lake effect will continue to peel away from Western Lower Michigan for much of the day moving more towards WI/IL. This will allow for at least some sunshine for most areas of Southwest Lower Michigan. The flow over Northern Lake Michigan does start to back more to the northwest which will push the band back inland near the points in the late afternoon and evening hours. The band of snow will hug the shoreline tonight before finally moving offshore for good overnight. As the band of snow moves back ashore this afternoon through a portion of tonight we could see local accumulations of an inch or two, especially near the points. It will not be as cold tonight coming up, but we will still be well below normal, down towards zero in many areas. - Next chance for snow Sunday night into Monday A shortwave trough in the mid levels will push a weak cold front through the region in the Sunday night and Monday time frame. Overall we are not expecting significant snow with this system given its weak nature and overall lack of deep moisture. There may be some slight lake enhancement to the snow north of Muskegon, but delta T`s are very marginal. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 20s to around 30 which will be warm compared to some of what we have been through this past week. - Temperatures warming towards normal next week 850mb temperatures will range from -7C to -10C Tuesday through Thursday which should will bring temperatures much closer to normal which is highs around 30 and lows around 15. As for sensible weather, we do have an upper trough traversing the area around the Wednesday time frame. Surface low pressure looks to be off to our south however, which is where the much higher chances for precipitation will be. Overall next week looks to feature more typical winter weather...some small chance for snow and near normal temperatures which will come as good news for many. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 720 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 We start Friday with mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions across the area at 12z. Most sites are VFR, but there is some MVFR ceilings and visibilities across Southern Lower Michigan at the I-94 TAF sites. These lower conditions are associated with a weak surface low that is centered near South Bend, Indiana. The low will continue to drift south today taking these lower conditions with it. A mix of clear skies and VFR ceilings will drift in from the north. As we head towards evening and especially into tonight lower ceilings (MVFR) will redevelop both off of Lake Michigan and pressing in on northerly winds. These clouds will try to clear out late tonight. Bottom line is that changeable conditions are expected the next 24 hours, especially in terms of ceilings. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion