012 FXUS63 KGRR 011933 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 233 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small rain chances through Tue; Rain Likely Tue night/Wed - Cooler with rain chances Thu-Fri - Dry Saturday with rain chances increasing Sun && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Small rain chances through Tue; Rain Likely Tue night/Wed Another day of mostly cloud cover for the area today. Regional radar imagery looks a bit more ominous than reality with a short wave moving through. This is the case with plenty of echoes present, but clouds below 10k ft are few and far between. We will see the short wave move out tonight, and short wave and long wave ridging will build over the area. Monday will see another day with plenty of cloud cover as low level and upper level moisture moves in. Forecast soundings and moisture X- sections indicate a lack of clouds/moisture in the mid levels with about a 6-8k dry layer in between. Can not rule out a sprinkle, but there is really no forcing most of the day. We do see a better low level jet set up late in the day and Monday night that will be focused on the northern portion of the forecast area. This will result in some showers for Central Lower. Most of Tuesday will be mostly dry across the area. We see the showers Monday move to the north, and we will be waiting for the moisture axis ahead of the incoming long wave trough and cold front. Another period of ridging will be in place most of the day, with the area in the warm sector. 850 mb temps of around +13C will support highs in the 70s once again. The best chance of rain with this entire system will come overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. We see the nose of a 50 knots low level jet set its sights on the forecast area. In addition to the rain, there looks to be just a enough instability for a rumble of thunder late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning just ahead of the front. Sfc based and elevated lifted indices are slightly negative at this time. The front will move through mostly by dark Wednesday evening. - Cooler with rain chances Thu-Fri We will see a break in the rain chances Wednesday night behind the cold front as we end up under the dry slot. This will cool off the temperatures a bit too, but not significantly yet. The upper low will settle over the area by Thursday, bringing with it better deep layer instability and cyclonic flow along with short waves. This will bring showery weather off and on for Thursday and much of Friday, with highs dropping back into the 50s. Lake effect rain showers will also be possible with 850 mb temps dropping to almost 0C, bringing delta t`s to the mid teens C. - Dry Saturday with rain chances increasing Sun The upper jet core will shift out of the area Friday evening, bringing anti-cyclonic flow back to the area. The showers should taper off as the colder air aloft also moves out of the area. We are looking at a dry and cool day on Saturday right now as ridging building in. There is pretty good agreement that another short wave will be diving down from the NW on Sunday, bringing more chances for rain to the region, and reinforcing colder air. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 VFR conditions will continue to dominate the pattern through most of the TAF period. A weather system will bring some mid to low level moisture early tomorrow. This should bring MVFR cigs late tomorrow morning, early tomorrow afternoon. Expect MVFR cigs at the southern TAF sites of JXN, AZO and BTL between 14Z at 17Z. LAN cigs should remain above 030KFT, however their is a small chance some clouds drop to MFR category at times. Most cigs should remain above IFR, however IFR is possible after 16Z at AZO, BTL and JXN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>846. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ847>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion