495 FXUS63 KGRR 011149 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 649 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clipper brings snow to the area Tonight into Monday - Another clipper with snow expected Thursday night and Friday - Temperatures on a moderating trend through the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 - Clipper brings snow to the area Tonight into Monday Even though we have a couple of chances for snow in the next 7 days, conditions will not be anywhere near as severe as they were the past 2 weeks. The main reasons for this is two fold...a moderation in temperatures so road conditions will be better and heavy snow is not expected at this time. The first chance for snow occurs tonight into Monday when a clipper moves from Southern Manitoba into Ontario passing north of Lake Superior. Given the fact the low will be well north of the area we are not expecting heavy snow along its southward extending cold front which moves through our area on Monday. Most areas will see a trace to around a half inch of snow. Areas from Grand Haven northward to Ludington and Baldwin could see a general 1-2 inch snow as the lake enhances the synoptic snow a bit. Delta T`s will be marginal but enough instability for a lake component to the overall snow. If the morning commute on Monday is going to be affected much it will be for places like Muskegon, Ludington and Fremont. The lift that is seen in BUFKIT overviews is not centered in the DGZ, so flake size will likely be small. Deepest moisture is centered right around 7am Monday. - Another clipper with snow expected Thursday night and Friday Much of the mid week time frame is characterized by ridging at the surface. Therefore the Monday night through Thursday time frame will feature quiet weather. The next system to bring sensible weather to the region will be a stronger clipper that moves through Thursday night and Friday. The clipper will have a potent cold front that is set to traverse the area Friday morning. A more widespread snow is expected with this system due to a deeper low and a much more formidable mid level shortwave. Snowfall amounts with this system remain consistent model run to model run in the 1-3 or 2-4 inch range. - Temperatures on a moderating trend through the week This should be the last truly cold morning through Friday as 850mb temperatures have moderated. The -20C and colder temperatures are gone and we should be fairly close to -10C all week. This results in high temperatures being in the 20s much of this week with lows in the teens. The warmest day of the week will probably be Friday before the cold front moves through. Highs on Friday will likely be around 30 which is normal for this time of year. We do cool off once again on Saturday behind the cold front but the cold air surge is more of a glancing blow especially in the ECMWF. Bottom line...pretty typical winter weather the next 7 days with a couple chances for snow and near to slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 649 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 Winds have become onshore over Western Lower Michigan and this has brought in some MVFR ceilings to places like MKG and LDM. There will be a surge this morning into the afternoon of some MVFR ceilings, especially for MKG and GRR. Not sure how well these clouds hold together given the winds in the cloud layer are light (10-15 knots) and the push is occurring beneath ridging. The main forecast focus is on the light snow and lower ceilings that develop tonight ahead of a cold front associated with a clipper system. Conditions at all TAF sites will become MVFR by 12z with both ceilings and visibilities dipping into the category. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DUKE AVIATION...DUKE

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion