663 FXUS63 KGRR 041956 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Friday Night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 - Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Friday Night After a stretch of quiet weather this week, the Great Lakes region will have a series of shortwave troughs coming through over the next week. The pattern will feature mild Pacific air streams in southwest flow into early next week before the polar jet dips south again by late next week. Moisture advects north this evening with showers spreading across the forecast area from the south overnight as a weakening shortwave trough moves through. Model soundings indicate freezing precip will not be an issue even across the higher elevations of Osceola and Clare Counties as the column would wet bulb above 0C at the surface by the time precip reaches that area around or after 12Z Thursday. A more significant trough ejects out of the western CONUS by the Friday with rain expected ahead and along a slow moving baroclinic zone from late Friday through Saturday and could bring a weakening line of convection. Current indications are for chance probabilities (30 to 40 percent) for elevated convection with a warm front feature Friday evening and a similar chance of convection after midnight ahead of the cold front. Severe threat may be limited by the expected late night/early morning passage of the storms and possible disruption of northward advection of deep moisture by strong convection to the southwest of Lower Michigan. Quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend with an active pattern continuing into next week. Confidence is still rather low with the details but a strong shortwave trough moves through in the Tuesday to with the potential for cold air and some snow returning after mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 A very nice day will slowly start to go downhill by late afternoon as clouds once again move in from the south and steadily thicken up. High confidence that I-94 corridor sites will drop to MVFR by around 00z/7pm and continue sliding down toward IFR cigs and eventually vsbys by shortly after midnight. It will take several extra hours to spread into the LAN/GRR/MKG locations, but all will eventually fall to IFR overnight and stay there for much of Thursday. While some rain showers are possible after midnight, the best chance for rain moves in Thursday morning for most locations. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...AMD

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion