566 FXUS63 KGRR 232345 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 645 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect snow winding down - Clipper system snow expected on Tuesday - No major systems expected Wednesday through Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 - Lake effect snow winding down Lake effect snow continues this afternoon with limited visibilities occurring both at Ludington and down at Benton Harbor. North flow long axis of the lake snow bands are occurring with a connection to Lake Superior. Delta T`s are in the mid to upper teens C so plenty of instability is in place. As we progress through the night moisture depth dwindles and ridging become more dominant. 850mb temperatures also begin to warm so instability will be trending down. Given factors are trending against lake effect going forward not expecting significant additional accumulation. Cannot rule out a local inch or two down towards South Haven and Covert though. - Clipper system snow expected on Tuesday A clipper system has remained steady in the models now for days...bringing snow to the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. The track of the low is well off to the north of the forecast area over Lake Superior and the U.P. Even so, we are looking at accumulating snow near and north of Interstate 96. The accumulations near I-96 will be light, half inch or less. The more consequential snows in our area will be up towards U.S. 10 where 1-3 inches of snow is expected to fall. Most of the snow will fall in a burst during the afternoon and evening working southward through the area ahead of the associated cold front. Visibilities will likely drop towards a half mile in the heavier band. - No major systems expected Wednesday through Monday Beyond the clipper system tomorrow there are really no major systems in the pipeline from Wednesday through the weekend. Another clipper passes way off to our north, north of Lake Superior, Friday into Friday night, pushing a cold front through here dry. A large sprawling surface high builds in for Sunday. There are indications for a streak of precipitation moving through the area Saturday night north of a low moving through the Ohio Valley, but models are not consistent so confidence is low. In terms of temperatures through the week, it will be a bit up and down with colder air wrapping back in behind the Tuesday clipper. A warm up occurs into Friday before things cool off once again into the weekend. The warmest day will be Friday when we warm into the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 Key change: - Added PROB30 for snow showers Tuesday afternoon Estimated probabilities for the following to occur at any terminal through the period... IFR restrictions: 5 percent Fuel alternate ceilings: 20 percent (best chances at MKG) We already are seeing far less cloudiness over interior Lower MI at this time. This will continue with perhaps brief periods of MVFR ceilings (greater than 2000 ft) overnight. After 12Z... ceilings should gradually transition from MVFR to VFR with bases well above 6000 ft AGL. Added snow showers Tuesday afternoon with visibility restrictions expected to stay above 3SM. There is a 30 percent chance that visibilities at MKG/GRR/LAN could briefly drop to 3SM or less. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...TJT

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion