781 FXUS63 KGRR 151126 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 626 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warmer through Wednesday - Chance of rain Thursday/Saturday, Mild && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Dry and warmer through Wednesday Latest IR loop shows most of the Lower Peninsula covered in a stratocu deck; 00Z raobs reveal a stout inversion around h85 that is trapping moisture underneath. Across the UP and southern Canada, drier air was working south skies were clearing. As the upper low to the east moves away, high pressure over the MS Valley will move over the Great Lakes and we`ll see decreasing clouds this afternoon. Temperatures will be on the upswing this week due to increasing heights aloft. H8 temperatures near -4c this morning will rise to +8 by Thursday. This will result in highs climbing from the mid 40s today to upper 50s by Thursday. - Chance of rain Thursday/Saturday, Mild The next chance (around 30 percent) of rain arrives Thursday as a weak cold front moves through. There`s virtually no cold air behind this front and the low associated with it is north of Lake Superior. Thus, that 30 PoP over the northwest CWA Thursday may be generous. The larger focus comes over the weekend, when a high amplitude trough over the West Coast move east. That wave is progd to phase with a short wave dropping south from Canada and producing a deeper low over the upper MS Valley. The cold front associated with that low will then move east late Saturday. That means a very mild day Saturday...highs in the lower 60s, before showers move through ahead of the front. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 No change from the previous forecast. IR loop shows abundant clouds across Lower MI. 00Z raobs indicate a pronounced inversion around h85 that is trapping moisture below it which is leading to a bkn/ovc MVFR deck. Models show this inversion breaking down this afternoon as drier air and subsidence advect eastward under the ridge to the west, which will enable ceilings to lift and eventually scatter out. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion