194 FXUS63 KGRR 012247 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 547 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather through Monday night - Light precipitation chances Tuesday into Wednesday - Warmer and wetter Thursday into the Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Mainly dry weather through Monday night A sprawling area of high pressure is situated directly over the Great Lakes this afternoon. The high is providing mainly sunny skies across the area, the exception being West Central Lower Michigan near Ludington where some lake stratocumulus hangs on. These clouds will tend to dissipate tonight as the winds shift around to the south late taking these clouds northward. The high only slowly moves off to the east Monday and Monday night allowing a ridge to remain situated through the area. Bottom line...BUFKIT overviews are dry through the depth of the atmosphere and we expect dry conditions to prevail. Highs that were in the 20s to around 30 today will push towards 40 on Monday. - Light precipitation chances Tuesday into Wednesday Light precipitation is possible in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, but models have backed off in both probabilities and magnitude. Threats for mixed precipitation have dwindled with the lowering precip chances. The chance for rain stems from a developing warm front off to our south that will remain across Illinois and Indiana. The associated low lifts into Missouri on Wednesday and it is forecast to remain rather weak. There is not much of a mid level wave to speak of during this time with zonal flow in place. Bottom line, small chances for rain during this period mostly in the 30-50 pct range, slightly higher on Tuesday as the front makes a surge northward towards us. Possibly a few tenths of an inch of rain along I-94, but the operational GFS and ECMWF remain divergent with the ECMWF being mainly dry and the GFS putting down a quarter of an inch or slightly more. - Warmer and wetter Thursday into the Weekend Main focus of the 7 day forecast is on the more active period which stretches from Wednesday night and Thursday into the weekend. The pattern shifts with rising heights and increasing moisture. 850mb heights in the Friday time frame push to the 570s DM, which is more summer like than late winter. We will see two periods of rain one coming Wednesday night and Thursday as the Missouri low and its association mid level shortwave swing through. Another stronger system with much deeper southwest flow moves through from Friday into Saturday. Along with the much higher heights will come a surge in moisture from the south. 850mb dew points surge to +10C, surface dew points will flirt with 60F, PWAT values reach 1.3 inches and 850mb LIs dip to -3C Friday night. So, temperatures have a legit chance to push into the 60s with chances for thunderstorms at times, especially Friday afternoon and evening. We will be monitoring both the threat for storms and the threat for heavy rain as we move through the upcoming work week. Rainfall across Southern Lower Michigan looks like it could reach the 1-2 inch range. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 546 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 High confidence in VFR conditons through the TAF period thanks to a dry ambient airmass and high pressure dominating the forecast. Lake effect cloud development led to a brief window of VFR cigs this afternoon but the cloud cover should dissipate with sunset. Clear skies then dominate the forecast through the rest of the TAF period. Light and variable winds are expected overnight before increasing from the southeast beginning mid morning Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion