656 FXUS63 KGRR 232314 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 614 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous Cold Through Early Saturday, Then Improving - Lakeshore Travel Slick into Early Saturday - Storm System Brings Light Snow Sunday - Next Week: No Big Warmup; Lake Effect Snow Chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 - Dangerous Cold Through Early Saturday, Then Improving Rare temperatures are being experienced region-wide with highs today struggling to get above 0F. The -30C isotherm at 850mb is overhead which is highly unusual. Adding to the impacts today has been wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph leading to wind chill readings persistently in the -15 to -25 range at our observing sites. Earlier this morning, numerous locations recorded wind chill readings of -25 to -30. At such cold temperatures, frostbite development on exposed skin can begin in 30 minutes or less. It`s best to limit outdoor exposure through Saturday morning. The low temperature forecast tonight is highly dependent on a few factors. First, we`ll be watching to see where an anticipated land breeze sets up. Currently high res model guidance is depicting the origins of this land breeze setting up just after 00z across Mecosta, Montcalm, Kent, and Barry Counties. This is where mesohigh development is likely, occurring over a very fresh snowpack with antecedent cold temperatures heading into sunset. This scenario typically allows for a rapid drop in temperature. Possibly combating this will be 1000-850mb RH values of 60-70% as shown by the RAP/HRRR/Nam3km. Mid and high level cloud cover in association with a developing winter storm south of our region may inch into the area in the 06z-12z time frame, but is not likely to be a significant mitigating factor in the cold. In spite of all these factors which are well handled by the HRRR, the 12z run is taking lows tonight into the -10 to -20 range with some low -20s indicated near the US 131 corridor. The ECE mean low at GRR is still very impressive at -20 and that has not changed for days. We would not be surprised to see some areas (particularly in Mecosta, Montcalm, Kent, Barry, and also Ionia) get down to -20 or colder, but expect some variability as temperatures will be highly sensitive to cloud cover. Since record keeping began in the 1890s, Grand Rapids has recorded -20 or colder only 11 times, most recently in January 1994. If the clouds stay away we could make a run at it. The 12z HRRR drops GRR to -24, which would tie the coldest reading ever recorded there. More info is in our Climate section. Regardless, the hazardous cold continues into Saturday morning before diurnal "heating" helps get our temperatures back above zero midday into the early afternoon. With light winds expected, wind chills will recover to around or slightly below zero. We are not currently anticipating the need to extend our cold headlines beyond 11am Saturday. - Lakeshore Travel Slick into Early Saturday The lake effect snow showers are still alive and well as inversion heights (ie. RAP analysis at BIV) are not bad at 7k ft. While the DGZ is at the ground in these types of temps, there is still production of plates and columns that can accumulate and they are certainly visibility crashers. Many periods of 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibilities have been reported along the lakeshore today, and as a result roads have continued to be quite slick. As a land breeze develops this evening, much of the snow shower activity will migrate to near the immediate coast or just offshore. However, 12z HREF guidance favors a land breeze convergence band setting up across western Oceana and Mason Counties overnight and as such we have extended the Winter Weather Advisory through 7am Saturday for those counties. It`s also possible that far western Muskegon County could get clipped with additional accumulating snow overnight but not enough confidence there to extend the headline. Total additional accumulations in those counties will be 1"-2" tonight but locally higher is possible in spots. Elsewhere, we anticipate letting the rest of the Advisory expire this evening at 7pm but our evening shift can reevaluate. - Storm System Brings Light Snow Sunday The large multi-state winter storm to our south will clip southern Lower Michigan on Sunday with some light to moderate snow. The probability of 2" or more is 60% or greater along I-94 and also east of I-69. Overall it looks like most locations especially near and south of a South Haven to Lansing line should pick up 1"-4" from this storm. North of there, an inch or less is likely but trends will be monitored. - Next Week: No Big Warmup; Lake Effect Snow Chances The theme next week is that the cold continues. ECE guidance does not get us out of the single digits and teens for highs for the rest of January, with several more subzero nights possible especially away from the lake. NBM guidance is a bit warmer factoring in the GEFS/CMC and associated deterministic guidance, but even that is still quite cold. In terms of snow chances, Monday will feature backing low level flow on the edge of the departing storm system to our south and as such there is a window for some lake effect snow showers in NW to WNW flow. Light accumulations are possible. Tuesday looks a bit more interesting as the ECMWF/GEM are showing a clipper system impacting the state with some potential for lake enhanced snow and blowing snow that could impact not just the lakeshore but areas further inland as well. ECE and GEFS members are showing good consensus for 30-40 mph gusts particularly near and west of US 131 as this clipper moves through. That could lead to some impacts to the Tuesday commutes so we will need to monitor trends with timing and amounts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 614 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 With decreasing winds, snow showers have retreated to the lake MI shoreline making all sites VFR except for MKG. For MKG, lake effect showers will continue through the night, likely with some decrease in intensity over the next few hours as a land breeze forces the heaviest showers offshore. Snow showers end by 12z with MVFR cigs persisting through the day. For all other terminals, VFR conditions are expected with greater coverage of VFR stratocu the closer to Lake Michigan the terminal is. Mid and high clouds will increase in coverage/lower Saturday morning as a storm system slides north across the CONUS. GRR, AZO, and BTL will see winds go southerly to southeasterly tonight due to the aforementioned lake breeze. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Bitterly cold temperatures will continue to increase the ice forming on our rivers. Thankfully, most of our typical trouble spots for ice jams are already mostly or completely frozen over. However, river ice is notoriously unpredictable, and the rarity of this upcoming cold snap will likely create some minor ice jam issues in places that don`t typically have to deal with river ice. For example, the last time it was this cold (2019) the Muskegon River had some ice jam issues at both Bridgeton and Newaygo, and there are already some signs that something similar could be happening again this year. The bottom line is that when we expect very unusual cold conditions, it`s not unreasonable to expect some very unusual river ice issues somewhere. Water levels around ice jams can go up/down much faster than usual, so anyone living near a river should pay extra attention to water levels over the next few days and have a plan to respond if conditions change quickly. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Forecast low temperatures on 1/24 and associated records: GRR -17 (record -19 in 1948) LAN -13 (record -22 in 1884) MKG -7 (record -5 in 1970) BIV -9 (record -12 in 1948) AZO -16 (record -13 in 1963) BTL -16 (record -13 in 1948) Forecast high temperatures on 1/24 and associated record coldest highs: GRR 6 (record 6 in 1904) LAN 7 (record 5 in 1963) MKG 9 (record 7 in 1897) BIV 8 (record 11 1987) AZO 7 (record 5 in 1963) BTL 7 (record 4 in 1963) Some computer model guidance (ie. ECE/ECMWF/HRRR) supports pockets of -20 or colder on Saturday. If that occurs, it would be the first time since January 1994 that those temperatures would be recorded in this region. The following temperatures are the coldest ever recorded at our long term climate sites: GRR -24 (2/13/1899 and 2/14/1899) LAN -37 (2/2/1868) MKG -30 (2/11/1899) BIV -24 (2/1/1918) AZO -22 (2/5/1918 and 2/10/1912) BTL -24 (2/12/1899) && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037-043. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ038- 044-050-056-057-064-071-072. Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ064>067- 071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Thomas HYDROLOGY...AMD CLIMATE...Hoving

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion