217
FXUS63 KGRR 111820
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
220 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Brief period of light snow this afternoon/evening
- Mixed rain/snow and windy Thursday night/Friday
- Rain/snow/freezing rain/chance of thunder Sunday, then colder
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
- Brief period of light snow this afternoon/evening
Radar shows light rain moving back into the cwa from the southwest
this afternoon just behind a cold front. In fact, the light rain
will likely end as a brief period of light snow this evening.
Then, HREF cloud progs show skies clearing from west to east after
midnight. We should see some sunshine Thursday morning and early
afternoon before mid/high clouds move over the cwa ahead of the
next clipper.
- Mixed rain/snow and windy Thursday night/Friday
The aforementioned clipper is fairly potent and deepening as it
moves toward Michigan. Light snow is expected to develop over the
northern cwa Thursday evening in the warm advection wing of the
clipper, then change over to some light rain south of I-96, before
ending as light snow Friday once the cold front moves through.
Accumulations 3-5 inches of snow are possible north of M-57
Thursday night and Friday, tapering to less than an inch from
Muskegon to Lansing.
Both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles are (and have been for several
model runs) showing strong winds in the boundary layer late
Thursday night and Friday, generally 55-60 mph. Strong winds like
this may hinder cleanup efforts in areas hard hit by recent
storms.
- Rain/snow/freezing rain/chance of thunder Sunday, then colder
Once the precipitation ends late Friday, Saturday will see some
sunshine. But, it won`t last long because another strong spring
storm will arrive Sunday. Rain, snow, freezing rain, and thunder
(across the south half of the cwa) are all possible. And some of
it may be heavy. Some models show quite a bit of ice across the
northern cwa followed by snow, and a mix of that farther south.
Spatial and temporal resolutions remain to be worked out, but
this is shaping up as an impactful storm.
Temperatures behind the system Monday and Tuesday will only be in
the mid to upper 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
IFR and patchy LIFR conditions this afternoon will gradually
improve this evening to MVFR and then VFR after 06Z. Another batch
of precip is moving through late afternoon into early evening with
mixed rain and snow tapering off then ending this evening.
Northwest winds will gust over 20 knots this evening with some
gusts to 30 knots possible before decreasing to 10 knots or less
by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Heavy rain has ended across the cwa, but light rain will move
northeast across the region late this afternoon and turn to light
snow before ending this evening. Only a couple hundredths of an
inch of precipitation are expected this afternoon. We canceled
the flood watch; additional areal flooding is not expected.
Earlier this morning, a flood warning was issued for the Maple
River at Maple Rapids for an anticipated crest around 10 ft
Friday afternoon; a gradual fall is expected leading into the
weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion