033 FXUS63 KGRR 072341 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 641 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon - Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday - Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday - Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 - Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon Surface observations at present show a robust cold front (temperature difference across the front of 20F) that recently passed through the Chicago metro area. Scattered showers are likely along the front as it crosses lower Michigan. However, thunderstorms are unlikely given a notable lack of instability across the region. Any showers will clear the area by afternoon as the front exits to the east. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely as the front moves through. - Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday Surface ridging takes over as the dominating driver of our weather pattern into Sunday. Sunday will be a bit cooler than the past few days with highs in the 50s, still notably above normal for this time of year. 850mb temps climb from near 0C tonight to near 10C Monday driving Monday`s highs into the 60s. Expect dry conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies. - Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday Our next system of note arrives mid next week ahead of phasing northern and southern stream waves. Some questions remain on the timing and degree of phasing, which will affect the low track and subsequent northward extent of a warm sector across the area. the GFS suite, including deterministic, ensemble, and AI model guidance suggest a track closer to the Michigan/Indiana state line. The ECMWF suite, excluding the AI-ECMWF (which is more in line with the GFS), favors a more northerly track with the low moving across lower Michigan. The main difference this would have is a faster changeover to snow on the backside of the system. There is some potential for thunderstorms as well, highest near I-94. - Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week The cold air brought in behind the northern stream wave will cause precipitation to change over to snow, with a weak signal for a period of wintry mix across Central Lower depending on how fast the warm layer aloft cools. As the track of this system is fine-tuned over the coming days, so will specifics on any wintry precipitation. The upper-level troughing will result in a flip to a colder pattern across the area, with 850mb temps going into the negatives. This will bring highs back into the upper 30s/low 40s which is more seasonable for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 641 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 Cold front has pushed east of all of our terminals, turning the winds to come from the WNW and gusty. Some light drizzle/mist is settling in behind the front, taking KMKG and KGRR down to IFR cigs and vsbys. Based on radar trends, it looks like these conditions will gradually make it into the rest of the terminals this evening, before ending overnight. We expect conditions should then improve to MVFR for cigs. KMKG will see winds pick up once again late tonight after a brief lull. The rest of the sites will then become gusty after daybreak on Sunday. Wind gusts of around 30-35 knots are expected during the heart of the day. The MVFR conditions should go VFR by mid morning at all sites as low clouds clear out. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion