871 FXUS63 KGRR 021912 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued dry through Thursday - Chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday - Warm weather continues && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 - Continued dry through Thursday High pressure will remain sprawled across the area the next day or two which will keep conditions dry. There is a high confidence in dry weather into Thursday evening. All ensembles are dry through Thursday afternoon. Not out of the question to see some rain develop Thursday night as upstream convection begins to close in from the northwest. - Chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday A stationary front will sag into the area from the north on Friday and move through the area as a cold front on Saturday and Saturday night. The front will get a push on Saturday from a couple of upstream shortwave troughs that phase over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. A good surge of moisture comes back into the Great Lakes region ahead of the front with mid 60s dew points at the surface. PWAT values will reach 1.75 inches per the models so there will be deeper moisture to work with. Given the upper wave moving through and stronger wind fields as shown by the GFS (30+ knots at 850mb and near 50 knots at 500mb), severe weather is certainly a possibility. The time frames of concern will be Friday evening and again Saturday afternoon. Friday evening looks like all of the CWA is in play for a chance at severe weather and Saturday afternoon looks like the south half of the area. - Warm weather continues Normal highs this time of year are in the middle to upper 70s. Normal lows are in the lower to middle 50s. We expect to be above normal the next 7 days. We are expecting highs in the 80s into the middle of next week and lows beginning to move into the 60s. So, it will feel much like summer. 850mb temperatures stay fairly steady through the period in the middle teens C which lends credence to the forecast. It will certainly feel like summer from Friday through Sunday when dew point temperatures climb into the 60s making it feel on the muggy side. Our current dew point this afternoon at 300pm for reference is 39F. Friday and Saturday we will likely have dew points around 65F which will be a noticeable change. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. We are not anticipating any restrictions to visibility and little in the way of clouds. A few high based cumulus clouds are occurring this afternoon and there are a few patches of cirrus, but in large part we are clear. That will continue to be the case tonight into Wednesday with sprawling high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. Winds will generally be northeast to east this afternoon at 5 to 15 knots. The exception will be MKG where a lake breeze will shift winds to the north and northwest after 20z and especially 22z. Winds will become light and variable after about 02z this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 High pressure will insure that we see another 24 hours of light winds and limited waves on Lake Michigan. Vertical profiles of wind near the lake show 10 knots or less of wind between this afternoon and Wednesday evening. So the quiescent conditions will continue through then. Wednesday night the high slips away to the east and return flow around the backside of the high commences. Winds will steadily ramp up from Thursday into Friday with 20-30 knot winds likely by Friday out of the southwest. Bottom line sub advisory conditions are expected tonight through at least Thursday morning. Thursday night into Friday we are most likely look at Small Craft Conditions. We could flirt with gales Friday evening. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion