240 FXUS63 KGRR 291022 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 622 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain Showers Today - Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend - Unsettled Pattern Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Rain Showers Today A shortwave trough is currently moving into the area bringing scattered rain showers. Most unstable CAPE values will increase into this morning around a couple hundred J/kg. Therefore can`t rule out some isolated thunder. Ahead of the cold front, southwest winds will pick up with gusts around 25 mph this morning and early afternoon. As the front moves through late this morning and afternoon skies will clear with lighter northwest winds. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s with a chance for temperatures below freezing along and north of US-10. Friday dry conditions are expected with highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s. - Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend A subtle feature may clip southwest Michigan Saturday bringing some slight chances (20 to 30 percent) for rain. What ensemble members show rain keep any amounts light (less than a tenth of an inch). Timing wise, rain (if it occurs) looks to be during the morning and afternoon. Sunday is trending drier in the NBM with questionable low level moisture and better mid level moisture. Will still be on the lookout for some showers, but dry air toward the surface may delay any additional rainfall. - Unsettled Pattern Next Week Taking another look at the long range ensembles and cluster analysis, there continues to be differences in the overall synoptic pattern next week. Monday is trending drier, with more members focusing on Tuesday for rainfall. Chances then continue through the rest of the week with trough moving through the Plains. Chances will be tied to the timing of this feature and how it evolves. This trough will move onshore Sunday and with better sampling more details should become clearer. Within the largely southerly flow next week temperatures will remain mild for this time of year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will continue to move through the area until the cold front currently in Wisconsin pushes through this afternoon. A brief period of MVFR ceilings around 1500 to 2000 feet are expected with the front before skies clear. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of IFR ceilings with the front. An isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out with today`s showers. Otherwise expect southwest winds with gusts around 20 knots ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front (15-00Z) and become lighter. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Southwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 knots have been observed largely north of South Haven. Winds will continue to build before the front moves through later this morning and early afternoon. Wave heights around 3 to 5 feet are expected with 4 foot waves remaining north of South Haven. Waves drop below 4 feet this afternoon but we could see winds and waves approach Small Craft Advisory levels for a brief period tonight. Winds and waves are expected to remain below Advisory conditions Friday into next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion