948 FXUS63 KGRR 301932 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 232 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow chances tonight - Milder with occasional chances of light snow into next week - System to watch late next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 - Light snow chances tonight After quite a cold, gloomy, and snowy last couple of weeks, most of the area is seeing a good period of sunshine this afternoon. The active weather has shifted to other side of Lake Michigan with a strong offshore flow having taken control of the region for now. Satellite imagery however shows another bank of clouds dropping south toward the area. Regional radar imagery shows some very light snow across much of Northern Lower, about ready to enter the northern border of the forecast area. This is out ahead of what appears to be a cold front. What is interesting however is that it actually has warmer air north of it that will spread in behind it. This is simply due to the origin of the air mass, as it is originating more from the Canadian Maritimes vs. the Arctic as has been the case the last couple of weeks. The light snow will amount to less than an inch for just about all of the area. The lakeshore could see a little more as the flow temporarily becomes westerly ahead of the front, and allows the lake to enhance it a bit. This will be mostly south of the area by 06z or so tonight. We will then see the flow become from the NE, pushing any lake effect offshore once again. - Milder with occasional chances of light snow into next week High pressure then builds over the area on Saturday. This will help to clear the skies out on Saturday. We will also see temperatures warm a bit. That is with the warmer air advecting in over the area. 850 mb temperatures warm from -22C this afternoon to about -10C later Saturday afternoon. This scenario is the beginning of a minor pattern change for the region, where we see more typical winter weather vs. the arctic air mass and non-stop lake effect over the last couple of weeks. The flow from the NW will continue, but will not be as cold due to the origin of the air mass. In addition, the northern branch of the upper jet will stay mostly north of the area. Thus, the deep and unstable cold air will also stay north, and keep any lake effect rather tame. We will see a couple of notable short waves in this time frame. One will come in Sun night and Mon. This short wave will be shearing out a bit as it approaches as the main energy dives south of our area. We see some modest warm air advection and forcing with the sheared out wave that moves through. This could bring some minor impacts to the Monday morning commute with light snow accumulations. The second wave looks to bring another chance of light snow to the area in the Tue-Wed time frame. Again, the deep cold air is not really over our area, and there is not much moisture available for this wave to act on. It looks rather weak, especially compared to what we have seen over the last couple of weeks. We will likely see temps drop a little in the wake of the Tue/Wed system, but nothing too cold expected at this time. - System to watch late next week A system that has more potential to bring impactful weather to the area late next week has our eye on it. The various models are all in agreement that a fairly strong jet streak of around 150-160 knots will be coming in from the NW and digging a system over the region. Obviously it is way too early to pin down any details with this, including track, interaction/phasing with other jet streaks, and such. It even has the potential to absorb enough warmer air ahead of it to cause p-type issues. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Ceilings build back in this afternoon from the north and could bring some light snow mainly between 00-06Z. Higher confidence in snow is along the lakeshore therefore have included -SN in MKG`s TAF with Prob30s elsewhere. Any snow accumulations are expected to be a half inch or less. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with the snowfall. Ceilings scatter out Saturday morning with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of Saturday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion