654 FXUS63 KGRR 050423 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1123 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Friday Night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 - Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Friday Night After a stretch of quiet weather this week, the Great Lakes region will have a series of shortwave troughs coming through over the next week. The pattern will feature mild Pacific air streams in southwest flow into early next week before the polar jet dips south again by late next week. Moisture advects north this evening with showers spreading across the forecast area from the south overnight as a weakening shortwave trough moves through. Model soundings indicate freezing precip will not be an issue even across the higher elevations of Osceola and Clare Counties as the column would wet bulb above 0C at the surface by the time precip reaches that area around or after 12Z Thursday. A more significant trough ejects out of the western CONUS by the Friday with rain expected ahead and along a slow moving baroclinic zone from late Friday through Saturday and could bring a weakening line of convection. Current indications are for chance probabilities (30 to 40 percent) for elevated convection with a warm front feature Friday evening and a similar chance of convection after midnight ahead of the cold front. Severe threat may be limited by the expected late night/early morning passage of the storms and possible disruption of northward advection of deep moisture by strong convection to the southwest of Lower Michigan. Quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend with an active pattern continuing into next week. Confidence is still rather low with the details but a strong shortwave trough moves through in the Tuesday to with the potential for cold air and some snow returning after mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1115 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 A warm front is slowly moving north across northern IN and low level moisture has steadily increased across the region. We`ll see cigs fall below 1k ft overnight as light showers develop; heavier rain will remain south of the terminals. IFR conditions are expected to remain in place through the period. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion