432 FXUS63 KGRR 262323 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 623 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy Friday then Light Snow Saturday - Mainly Dry Sunday through Tuesday - Pattern Change Coming Mid Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 - Windy Friday then Light Snow Saturday Other than a few flurries this afternoon, dry conditions are expected through Friday. Warm air advection will keep lows warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s. The low level jet will ramp up Friday over the area ahead of the cold front bringing windy conditions across Michigan. Southwest winds gusting 30 to 35 mph are expected by the late afternoon with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. A cold front moves through Friday night, but not expecting any precipitation. Despite the strong frontogenesis and increasing precipitable water values, there isn`t enough moisture to work with. This is shown in ensembles and soundings. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning are expected to be in the 20s. An upper level trough moves through Saturday with upper level divergence and some low to mid level frontogenesis associated with the advancing high and a low pressure system to our south. Snow looks to start Saturday afternoon and ending Saturday evening. Probabilities of an inch or more of snow are currently 30 to 50 percent south of M-46. - Mainly Dry Sunday through Tuesday A shortwave trough moves through Sunday night into Monday with a system passing to our south. There is a 20 to 30 percent chances areas south of I-96 could see some light snow. It`ll be another cold day Sunday with highs in the 20s with winds from the north. Winds shift to the southeast to south Monday bringing slightly warmer temperatures in the low to mid 30s, but warm air advection kicks in more Tuesday with highs in the low 40s. There are some slight chances for rain and snow (20 to 30 percent) Tuesday. Clusters vary on when precipitation moves in with some solutions keeping Michigan dry until Tuesday evening. - Pattern Change Coming Mid Next Week Warmer and wetter conditions are expected for the second half of next week as we move more into southwest flow. Cluster analysis shows decent agreement with a few shortwaves moving through and rain chances Wednesday through Friday. Best chances for rain move in Wednesday evening into Thursday (50 percent or greater). Probabilities for an inch or more of rain within 24 hours remains low (20 percent). As for temperatures expect a return of highs in the 40s and 50s with lows on Wednesday in the 20s, and then 30s to low 40s Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 621 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. Mainly scattered high clouds moving across the terminals. Southwest wind will become gusty during the afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion