268 FXUS63 KGRR 071016 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 616 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry and cool through Wednesday - Rain Thursday; Rain and Snow Friday - Dry Saturday, then increasing rain chances through Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - Mainly dry and cool through Wednesday The cold pool aloft and northern branch of the jet are steadily moving ENE away from the area this morning. The anti-cyclonic flow ahead of the incoming upper ridge is bringing strong subsidence to the area. This will lead to diminishing lake effect low cloud cover currently across Northern Lower as it tries dropping down over the area. Temperatures will remain quite cold by early April standards as the northerly flow is continuing to advect cold and dry air from Canada. The ridge overhead early Wednesday should bring plenty of clear skies by then, with maybe some high clouds advecting in later Wednesday out ahead of the next incoming system. The far NW corner of the forecast may see a sprinkle being on the eastern edge of the stronger warm air advection, but dry low levels will really limit rain chances at the sfc. The return flow from the south will bring much more seasonable temperatures Wednesday with highs well into the 50s. - Rain Thursday; Rain and Snow Friday We see an abnormally strong upper low currently over British Columbia that will be dropping ESE toward the area by Wednesday night. As this system approaches, there is a period late Wednesday and Wednesday night where it is able to directly tap some good and deep moisture in the lower levels from the Gulf. We will see this precipitation in the form of rain as 850 mb temperatures will be up around +6 to +8C, and the moist axis is aimed toward the area. As time passes into Thursday, the low level flow becomes oriented more from the Southern Appalachians, so the moisture is limited from that point on Thursday. Thunder chances for our area seem a bit too low at this time to include a mention in the forecast. Sfc based and elevated LI`s are all positive, so we will hold off for a thunder mention at this time. It seems that the front will mostly clear the area by Thursday afternoon. This means that the moisture will be swept out, and we could see some clearing take place Thursday mid-late afternoon as high pressure builds in for a short period. The front does not go far, as it drops only to Northern Indiana and Ohio before stalling out as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. It will be there for upper jet energy to act on it, and these features phase on Friday. In addition to the strong dynamics, the low level flow will be more favorable to draw moisture northward out of the Gulf, and up and over the front. There is good agreement and consensus on bringing additional precipitation with this setup. There is a bit of uncertainty yet with this period, as there is some disagreement on p-type. The flow from the NE in the lower levels will feed cool and dry air over the area just north of the front. Therefore, if the air is cool enough, it would fall as some snow of the far northern periphery. This is one thing we will need to continue to monitor. - Dry Saturday, then increasing rain chances through Monday Upper and sfc ridging will help to sweep the front and moisture well out of the area by Saturday. The air will not be much cooler than Friday when the cool air is advecting in from the NE. We will see quite a change then take place by Sunday that the models and ensembles have been handling well for the last few days. A long wave trough will move over much of the Western U.S. by later Saturday and Sunday. This will bring a deep S to SW flow aloft over the area once again. Initially we may see the benefits of this being a significant warm up for Sunday as 850 mb temps warm into the lower teens C. The moist axis looks to stay west of the area for the day, allowing for a warm and mostly dry Sunday. This will change on Monday as the front inches closer, and the deep moist axis moves overhead. It will stay warm, but the day will likely be much more wet. This will be the beginning of yet another wet period, similar to what we saw last week. This could be concerning as area rivers and streams will not have had a chance to totally recover from the high to flooding flows currently going on. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 We are seeing the cloud cover across Northern Lower trying to move southward. However, it is drying up a bit as the flow is becoming more from the NNE, and the Lake Superior connection is not as much of an influence. The clouds should gradually dissipate through this afternoon. We will see high clouds move overhead out ahead of the next system, but VFR conditions will still rule. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 We will be issuing a Gale Watch for areas near Holland and northward for late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The current Small Craft Advisory remains in effect with no changes at this time. We are at the tail end of the ongoing Small Craft Advisory. High pressure is building in over the area, and the pressure gradient between the departing low and the incoming high is just about past the area. Winds will start to increase on the backside of the sfc ridge later Tuesday night and Wednesday. The core of wind with this event will be late Wednesday and Wednesday night, which is when we have the Gale Watch. Gales look likely for that, and we will likely need a Small Craft Advisory leading up to the Gale event. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 No significant rain is expected until Wednesday night and Thursday when one quarter to half an inch is forecast across the Muskegon Basin with lesser amounts to the south across the Grand and Kalamazoo river basins. Until then, crests will continue moving downstream across the rivers. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night for LMZ846>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ HYDROLOGY...Ostuno

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion