058
FXUS63 KGRR 011918
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Threat for Freezing Rain Thursday Morning
- Chance for Severe Weather Thursday Afternoon/Night
- Another Round of Strong Storms Possible on Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
- Threat for Freezing Rain Thursday Morning
Precipitation moves in from southwest to northeast between 2 AM
and daybreak Thursday. Forecast wet bulb temperatures in the
relatively higher terrain of interior Central Michigan favor
freezing rain at the onset of precipitation, before temperatures
warm later in the morning. With perhaps slightly cooler wet bulb
temperatures expected than previously, the 12Z HREF FRAM and
freezing rain QPF from ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian models have
trended a little south, with a higher potential for a quarter
inch of ice in the high points of Osceola and Clare counties. Have
expanded the winter weather advisory for the counties adjacent to
Osceola and Clare to account for these trends.
The window for freezing rain is fairly short but precipitation
will be moderate and winds will be breezy. Impacts are more iffy
south and west of Osceola/Clare, but bridges and overpasses could
be affected briefly during morning travel. If ice accretion is
indeed efficient in Osceola and Clare, some power outages could
occur.
- Chance for Severe Weather Thursday Afternoon/Night
Temperatures and moisture increase substantially near and south of
I-96 mid to late afternoon Thursday with a northward moving warm
front. Thunderstorms around mid day are possible but will be well
elevated and unlikely to be severe. More surface-based convection
is then possible in Southwest Michigan during the evening. This
high-shear low-CAPE setup offers some risk of damaging wind gusts,
and even a tornado given ample low-level moisture and curved
0-1 and 0-3 km hodographs. Hail threat is low as most of the CAPE
will be concentrated in warmer air at lower altitudes.
- Another Round of Strong Storms Possible on Saturday
(Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026)
Another low will move through the area on Saturday associated with
a stronger upper trough. Wind fields with this system are even
stronger aloft with a 60kt low level jet and a 70kt mid level jet.
The question is how much instability we will have before the cold
front sweeps east during the day. If the timing of the front slows
up just a bit it will place a portion of our area in the warm
sector at max heating. We will be watching this time frame closely
for another round of potential severe weather.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Widespread MVFR ceilings continue this afternoon There remains a
chance that all TAF sites will improve the VFR late this
afternoon, after 20Z, albeit briefly. Conditions will deteriorate
overnight as the warm from moves northward. The cold air from the
north will bring a slight chance for freezing rain overnight,
primarily between 06Z to 12Z at MKG and GRR. For that have
PROB30s. MVFR will work north with both ceilings and visibilities
trending down with rain. IFR is becoming more likely after 12z on
Thursday in most areas. Northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots today
will veer to the east tonight. Low level wind shear will become a
concern early tomorrow afternoon. While winds will remain gusty
upwards of 25 to 30kts from the east at the surface, the Jet
around 2KFT will be from the south upwards of 45 to 50kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Beginning another small craft advisory with east winds
strengthening late this evening, gusting at the shore 20-30 knots
overnight into Thursday morning. Winds veer more south by
Thursday evening, building larger waves in the nearshore, and
scattered thunderstorms over Lake Michigan are likely. Gale force
wind gusts are possible Thursday evening, especially in and around
thunderstorms.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Two main additional rounds of rain are expected over the next few
days. This should add 1-2 inches of rain to most areas,
especially over the Muskegon River basin and western/lower Grand
River basin. Thankfully, water levels have largely recovered from
the last rainy weather pattern a few weeks ago, but this will get
water levels rising again. Currently, the most vulnerable
locations to potentially reach minor flood levels over the coming
days are along the Muskegon River (primarily in Newaygo and
Bridgeton), and along the Maple River in Maple Rapids (tributary
to the Grand River). However, any shifts north or south of the
upcoming heavy rain axis will change these results. Now is the
time for people along West Michigan rivers to pay extra attention
and have a plan to respond if water levels rise unexpectedly.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for
MIZ038-044>046.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Thursday for
MIZ039-040.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS/Duke
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...CAS
HYDROLOGY...AMD
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion