288
FXUS63 KGRR 080707
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
307 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy today
- Dry weather into Tuesday morning
- Low moving through Great Lakes Tues/Wed brings precipitation
- Clipper to end week brings another round of precipitation
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026
- Windy today
We are expecting a windy day today as a gradient tightens between
a deep low moving across Canada and high pressure situated over
the southern U.S. Winds will likely gust to 40-45 mph in most
areas, so we will be close to wind advisory criteria. At this
time, we are not expecting widespread gusts of 45 mph so will hold
off on a headline for now. Cannot rule out a few gusts to 45+ mph
but confidence in this occurring is not high and again the gusts
to that magnitude are likely to not be widespread. If we see gusts
to 45 mph it will likely be in the midday hours from Holland and
Muskegon northeast through Grand Rapids and Howard City to Mt.
Pleasant. The HRRR suggests just below advisory criteria and we
are going to lean on that guidance.
- Dry weather into Tuesday morning
Zonal upper flow will persist from today through Monday night. No
systems are expected to affect the area during that time frame.
Southwest flow will occur today and tonight before a dry
stationary boundary sags into the area on Monday. The boundary
will remain in place into Monday night with no precipitation. The
focus will be on a developing low in the plains states that will
move into the Southern Great Lakes into Tuesday night. Highs will
be in the 50s today, 60s on Monday and potentially push to near 70
along I-94 on Tuesday. Normal highs this time of year are in the
lower 40s at Kalamazoo, so Tuesday`s high will be 20-30 degrees
above normal.
- Low moving through Great Lakes Tues/Wed brings precipitation
A low will sweep through the Southern Great Lakes region in the
Tuesday and Wednesday time frame bringing precipitation to the
entire area. The trend in the operational models in the last 24
hours is for the ECWMF to be further south with the low more in
line with what the GFS was showing yesterday. The ensemble means
of both models support this track (across the MI/IN line to
Southern Lower Michigan area). The surface low will be driven by a
strong upper shortwave which will bring rain and thunderstorms
initially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Colder air will
filter in on the north side of the low on Wednesday bringing a
rain/snow mix to the area before the precipitation ends into
Thursday.
- Clipper to end week brings another round of precipitation
The weather pattern will stay active into the end of the week with
a strong upper wave pushing a clipper quickly through the region
Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will be marginal with
this system waving at 850mb from single digits above and below
zero C. Surface temperatures will also oscillate from below
freezing to above and back below again as the low traverses the
area. Rain and snow is the going forecast now for both Thursday
night and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
Latest trends in the radar imagery indicate that the drizzle is
diminishing in coverage and intensity, and visibilities and
ceilings are improving a tad. We expect that a general improving
trend will continue, with some periods of lower IFR conditions
scattered around through the coolest part of the day. Winds are
diminishing, but will ramp back up at KMKG overnight, and at the
rest of the sites after daybreak.
The MVFR ceilings will linger into the morning, before breaking
out by afternoon. The further North and West will have more cloud
cover, that will be VFR based up around 10k agl. Winds will become
quite gusty with gusts of 30 to 35 knots likely for most
locations Sunday afternoon. These winds will diminish close to
sunset.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion