071 FXUS63 KGRR 212354 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 654 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers into Monday, heaviest along the lakeshore - Snow accumulations likely Late Tuesday into Wednesday - Briefly milder air late week with precipitation chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 - Snow showers into Monday, heaviest along the lakeshore We will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for Mason, Oceana, Allegan, and Van Buren Counties from 7 pm this evening through 1 pm on Monday. No much going on at the current time across the area, with mainly just a shroud of low clouds blanketing the area this afternoon. There was a band of light snow across portions of Osceola and Clare counties earlier that has lifted north of the area this afternoon. We will see some light snow showers develop across the area through this evening. A fairly robust vort max can be seen on the visible and water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon moving over Northern Illinois. This feature is not doing much over that area this afternoon with limited moisture there. However, as the forcing and mid/upper level moisture from this feature moves over our area, it will combine with the lake clouds to develop snow showers across the area as the dgz becomes much better saturated. The snow amounts with this system alone will not be much, generally less than an inch for most areas through Sunday morning. However for northern and southern sections of the lakeshore, we will see some better accumulations of snow. A sfc trough will drop through this evening, changing the mean low level flow from westerly to more north/northwesterly. Inversion heights will be rising with colder air and cyclonic flow aloft moving overhead in the wake of the Illinois wave moving through. The lake effect does not look to get too out of hand, but we do expect that parameters are favorable enough that the aforementioned locations will see enough snow for some impacts. Helping this out will be a trajectory coming in off of Lake Superior, pre- conditioning the bands. The cyclonic flow and cold air aloft will remain over the area likely through Monday morning, before the jet lifts NE of the area, and the environment become quite hostile for good lake effect. Overall from later this evening through Monday morning, 4-7 inches looks like a good bet for those favored lake effect areas. Some locally higher amounts are likely. Away from the lakeshore, a grand total of only an inch or so is expected. - Snow accumulations likely Late Tuesday into Wednesday Snow showers will taper off then Monday afternoon and evening, giving the area a break from them likely through early Tuesday as upper ridging moves through. This will be short lived however as the flow from the NW will be very progressive. The next short wave will then arrive Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The air ahead of this system is not too cold, but right now it looks as if it will stay just cold enough to allow any precipitation to fall as snow. Snow amounts generally look to be on the lighter side with this event with not a great deal of enhancement from Lake Michigan. The air with the system is not that cold, and therefore the instability over the lake is not that great. In addition, snow ratios will be held down due to the not-so-cold temperatures. - Briefly milder air late week with precipitation chances We have been watching one more system that will be approaching the area in the latter portion of the week. This system has been lacking any good run to run consistency over the last 24-48 hours. For example, the deterministic run of the Euro had the sfc low tracking across Northern Lower 24 hours ago, and bringing rain to the area. Now the 12z run it has it tracking south of the area, which would barely clip the southern section of the forecast area. The gist of this is that a great deal of uncertainty remains with this Thu-Fri system, and not a lot of stock can be put into any solution yet. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 MVFR cigs continue to overlay across all of Lower Michigan. Light showers have started to form along the I 94 corridor. Bands of snow will become more organized as the evening progresses. Expect periods of MVFR to IFR vsbys after 03Z especially along the lakeshore. Models have adjusted the timing and infiltration eastward of some of the more intense bands. There is a chance for IFR cigs and vsbys at all TAF sites from 09Z to 15Z Sunday morning. MKG should see the most persistent snowfall, however, behind the front, the northerly flow could shift much of the snow offshore. So have periods of IFR included. Winds will shift to the northwest post frontal, from 12Z to 18Z from the northwest to southeast respectively and will become gusty upwards of 25 kts. Snow will persist through Sunday, However, after 18Z should be only MVFR east of the lakeshore. MKG is the exception where periods of IFR are probable most of the day. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MIZ037-043-064- 071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion