856 FXUS63 KGRR 192247 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 547 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow and wind diminishing - Warmer Saturday, colder Sunday - A warm Christmas && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 - Snow and wind diminishing After peaking around 45 mph at a couple of locations (GRR & LAN), winds have been slowly decreasing as high pressure builds across the lake. Radar also shows a slow decrease in echos and echo tops that`s expected as warmer air aloft begins to flow over the lake. There has been a small erosion of the western cloud edge over Lake Michigan within the last hour or so, signaling the arrival of the warmer air aloft. At this point, we`ll let the winter weather advisory expire at 4 pm. However, there will likely still be some snow ongoing; blowing and drifting will continue to decrease throughout the afternoon and evening. - Warmer Saturday, colder Sunday Southwest winds ahead of the next cold front will push high temperatures into the upper 30s Saturday. A strong cold front will move through mid day and give us around a 30 percent chance of light snow as it moves through. Some light rain could mix in near the lake shore and perhaps a little sleet over the northeast cwa. H8 temperatures will fall from -4c to -18c by Sunday morning, setting us up for a cold Sunday; highs lower to mid 20s. - A warm Christmas High pressure quickly moves over the cwa Sunday afternoon and the warmup will commence. H8 temperatures warm to +2c by Monday afternoon, plus 4c by Tuesday afternoon and +7c by Christmas. Light snow is expected Monday as a warm front moves through; perhaps a half inch north of I-96. Warmer temperatures will continue advect into the region. Light rain is possible Christmas Eve as a warm front lifts north across northern Indiana. a 15-20 percent chance of rain exists on Christmas. It won`t be snow, though as highs are expected from the mid 40s near US-10 to mid 50s south of I-96. Temperatures at the start of next weekend will remain mild too; highs in the mid 40s as a broad latitudinal ridge develops over the center of the country. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 547 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 Snow will have largely diminished by 00z with MVFR cigs ongoing. Cigs lift after 02z through 6-7z from southwest to northeast as low-level dry air filters in. LLWS develops after 10z tonight as winds increase to 60 knots at 2kft, persisting through around 18z when the greater winds aloft move out. Winds will become southerly overnight ahead of a cold front crossing the region, becoming westerly after the front passes. Gusts to 30 knots are likely starting late tonight into the day on Saturday, highest at MKG. Confidence is not high, but the cold front may bring in snow showers. Best chance appears to be at MKG/GRR so have gone PROB30 there and left snow out at the other terminals. Rain may also mix in if precipitation is observed. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 We extended the gale warning until 4 pm based on obs along the lake shore. We also issued a small craft advisory from 4 pm until 6 pm Saturday, at which time we may need another gale warning as a strong cold front moves across the lake. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion