391 FXUS63 KGRR 292356 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 656 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread snow event through Sunday morning remains on track - Below average temps and periodic chances of snow showers next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Widespread snow event through Sunday morning remains on track At this time, we will not be making any changes to the headlines currently in place. The event has unfolded as expected so far with light snow having developed across all of the forecast area already. Regional radar imagery shows stronger radar returns to our SW that are poised to move in through this evening as expected. The isentropic ascent/warm air advection driving this part of the system is relatively light, interacting with an already saturated atmosphere. The main part of the event remains poised to move in beginning in the next few hours from south to north, and lasting off and on through a good chunk of tonight. The heavier snow is just about to move in over the far SW corner of the state as of 230 pm EST. It is at that time that we have the enhanced forcing with the main short wave that will traversing the area, along with some upper level jet coupling going on. The majority of the forecast area in the sweet spot for the widespread snow. with some margin for error if the axis of the best forcing changes a bit. Model consensus continues generally showing the going forecast snow amounts we have been advertising for the last couple of days with good run to run consistency in model solutions and ensemble means. We believe the only way that the forecast could deviate from the current forecast is for the U.S.-10 corridor to end up with more snow that currently forecast. Perusing all of the 12z data does not give us enough confidence to upgrade at this time. Something to watch up there is some possible enhancement from Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay with the flow from the east over Clare and Osceola counties that might bump their totals up compared to Mason and Lake counties. The synoptic snow then moves out first thing Sunday morning, which will transition to some lake effect snowfall for much of Sunday. Lake effect parameters are fairly decent for most of the day as we will see the upper jet surrounding the state with the cyclonic flow/upper cold pool overhead. Delta t`s increase to around 20C with inversion heights likely at or just above 10k ft. The favored area for lake effect will be at the lakeshore counties with the flow expected to be from the NNW much of the day. We can not rule out needing the headlines to be extended, or transitioned to an advisory for Sunday. Inversion heights will lower Sunday night as ridging aloft builds in. - Below average temps and periodic chances of snow showers next week Not a lot of detail can be put into the forecast for Monday and beyond, but the general pattern is fairly straight-forward. We are looking at an upper flow pattern that will be predominately from the NW through next weekend. What this means is that we will be seeing short waves embedded in the upper flow coming right at the area, providing periodic snow shower chances just about everyday at some point. It is tough to time any of these with much confidence beyond about 2-3 days. The upper jet will be such that we are not looking at significant lake effect with the jet core north of the area much of the time. As stronger short waves come through, the jet core may temporarily drop south of the area, allowing for enhanced snow chances along with lake effect/enhancement. Temperatures in this pattern will be generally below average through the period. This does not look like any prolonged period of any abnormally cold weather for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 656 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Surface low pressure continues to move eastward across Iowa as we approach 00z/7pm. Widespread snow is occurring east of the low stretching from Iowa through the southern Great Lakes including all of southern Lower Michigan. Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions are occurring at all of the TAF sites. These conditions will continue through tonight with the expectation to even dip into VLIFR at times. The bottom line is very poor aviation conditions are expected right through the night as widespread snow continues. Conditions will gradually improve through the day on Sunday moving from MVFR to VFR at most locations. KMKG will likely be impacted by snow showers during the day on Sunday as lake effect snow develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The Small Craft Advisory for tonight into Sunday remains intact with no changes. We will be upgrading the Gale Watch to a Warning for Sunday morning and afternoon for the entire nearshore. Winds will be coming up through this evening ahead of the system, but will be offshore in nature and warm advection in nature, limiting the wind gusts that reach the sfc. This will lead to the marginal Gale force winds staying out over the open waters of mid- lake. It is a different story on Sunday. We will see offshore winds switch to become from the NW (onshore). We will also see cold advection over the lake mixing down to the sfc over the warmer lake. It is much more likely we hit gales on Sunday vs. tonight. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ037>040. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Duke MARINE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion