708 FXUS63 KGRR 051137 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 637 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain Continues into Thursday; Lakeshore Rain Chances Friday - Cooler Temperatures Settle in Through The Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 - Light rain showers persist today, shift to the lakeshore Friday. Behind yesterday afternoon`s cold front, the combination of cooler temperatures aloft (850mb temps of 2-4C), warm lake temperatures (14- 16C), and ambient low level moisture upstream continues to produce light but widespread lake-enhanced showers across lower Michigan. The greatest coverage early this morning has been north of a South Haven to Lansing line due to persistent southwesterly low level flow, with peak strength roughly along the US-131 corridor. While these showers will fluctuate through the morning and afternoon due to subtle temperature/wind fluctuations, these showers should largely persist. Meanwhile, expect much more typical temperatures for early November, with highs expected to top out in the low to mid 50s...very near seasonal averages. Later this evening, a reinforcing cold front will push through the area as a remnant surface low slowly moves southeast across Lake Huron. Behind this front, cold air advection will bring 850 mb temperatures down to around -2 to -4C, resulting in a nearly 15-19C difference from Lake Michigan water temperatures. However, winds will abruptly shift to the north-northwest behind the front as cyclonic flow develops, and eventually to almost due northerly. So, while lake-enhanced (and eventually purely lake effect) rain showers may intensify, most of these are expected to shift out to the open waters and along the immediate lakeshore by Friday morning. Meanwhile, ambient light rain that is not driven by lake effects are expected to gradually diminish through the night and Friday morning, so many interior areas should see mostly dry conditions during the day Friday. This may take longer to materialize in our far northeast (roughly M-20 and north) as these areas will be closer to the surface low, and may also see remnant lake effect bands from the northern Lakes. It also wouldn`t be a shock to see a few wet (and non-accumulating) snowflakes in the higher terrain of our far north early Friday morning, but this should be short-lived if it materializes. Otherwise, expect temperatures to dip into the 30s by early Friday morning, with perhaps a brief, light freeze in our far north. Friday afternoon will likewise be much cooler, with highs only topping out in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees, just a smidge below the daily average but on par with a typical early November day. - Cooler, more seasonable temperatures continue this weekend onward. Lake effect showers should diminish by Friday night, and from here out the Great Lakes will enter a generally dry northwest flow pattern, with a more active southern stream across the southern CONUS. A weak "clipper" type shortwave will pass the area to the northeast Sunday, which should reinforce seasonably cool air but is not expected to produce meaningful precipitation chances, lake- effect or otherwise. Instead, we will see dry conditions through the weekend, with morning lows near or slightly below freezing afternoon highs in the 50s. Longer range guidance also suggests that shortwave ridging may drive a very modest warming trend early next week, but for the most part temperatures are likely to remain near or just above average, with minimal precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 The primary concern during the 12Z TAF continues to be the persistence of light rain showers and MVFR ceilings. At the start of the period, shower coverage was increasing near GRR and MKG, and MVFR ceilings were observed at all local terminals. This is likely to continue through the early afternoon, when showers are expected to shift to the southeast and begin to impact AZO/BTL and possibly LAN. A cold front will then sweep through the area late afternoon/evening, and switch winds abruptly to the northwest. Showers are expected to shift further south and also out over Lake Michigan, limiting precipitation at local terminals after 00-03Z with the possible exception of MKG. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 Gusty southwesterlies will continue to produce steep waves in all nearshore waters through late afternoon/early evening today, necessitating the continuation of the ongoing Small Craft Advisory through 4PM. However, a cold front will abruptly switch winds to the north late this afternoon and evening, and increase speeds to the lower end of Gale strength across a majority of the open waters. While most nearshore areas will maintain Small Craft Advisory-level conditions, locally enhanced winds and larger waves are expected near Big and Little Sable points from late this evening through Friday evening, with localized gales and waves building to near 10 feet. As such, a Gale Warning has been issued for nearshore waters north of Whitehall, in addition to the Gale Warnings already in effect for the open waters. In addition, conditions will become increasingly favorable for isolated waterspouts over much of the waters overnight tonight through Friday afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>847. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ848- 849. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRC AVIATION...BRC MARINE...BRC

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion