796 FXUS63 KGRR 262323 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 623 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow & blowing snow tonight/Tuesday, cold wind chills - Periods of snow through Friday - Cold this week, not as cold as last week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 - Snow & blowing snow tonight/Tuesday, cold wind chills Radar shows light lake effect snow showers falling over the cwa. H8 temperatures are still creating enough over-lake instability for snow showers, but the boundary layer is a bit dry, which is why we aren`t seeing more in the way of accumulations. The next clipper will move through tonight and bring another surge of arctic air with it. This clipper will also bring a fairly tight pressure gradient, resulting in gusty winds late tonight and Tuesday; ECMWF ensemble mean is near 35 mph. HREF snowfall progs paint 1-3 inches of synoptic snow after midnight tonight west of US-131 and an inch or so east of there. There could be isolated 4 inch amounts. Bufkit omega profiles show a well defined omega bullseye in the DGZ around 09z tonight at GRR which should result in some heavier snow in prior to sunrise. Of course, this will have a detrimental impact on the morning commute. Given the combination of snow (another 1-2 inches Tuesday) and wind, we`ve issued a winter weather advisory for the western half of the cwa from midnight through 7 pm Tuesday. I wouldn`t be surprised if the advisory is extended in time because lake effect snow will be ongoing for a couple of days. The southeast cwa will won`t see the synoptic snow until later tonight and as a result will see colder temperatures. When combined with the wind, wind chill temperatures will fall to -15 to -20 Tuesday morning; a cold weather advisory is in effect for tonight and Tuesday morning. - Periods of snow through Friday H8 temperatures remain aob -20c through Friday which means lake effect snow will continue. Synoptic enhancement of the lake effect snow will occur Tuesday night and again Wednesday night as short waves rotate through the upper trough and across the cwa. Each wave will increase inversion heights for several hours resulting in more accumulation. By Thursday, boundary layer winds become more northerly which will pull the lake effect snow bands westward toward the lake shore. - Cold this week, not as cold as last week Highs will be in the mid teens this week which is warmer than the single digits of last week, but still much colder than the normal highs around 30. We`re not going to see 30 for a while, but we`ll likely see lower to mid 20s high temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 Radar shows the ongoing snow this afternoon is dissipating with a period of VFR likely through at least 05z. After 05z a clipper brings widespread MVFR to IFR snow and MVFR cigs across the terminals. The greatest chance of IFR is at MKG/GRR/AZO. Behind this system lake effect snow showers develop with westerly flow becoming west northwest through the day. MKG and AZO will see the worst conditions given the flow direction though restrictions are likely at all terminals. The caveat is being so far inland, conditions may become more variable at LAN and JXN as the winds take on more of a northerly component. The other factor to contend with is BLSN, especially at MKG/AZO/GRR/BTL given gusts of 25-35 knots. Have gone IFR visbys at the greatest confidence terminals and borderline IFR at the others with this package, though BLSN may well bring IFR to the rest of the terminals. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ058-059- 064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion