841 FXUS63 KGRR 161852 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and wind decrease tonight - Frost and freeze conditions tonight - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain and wind decrease tonight Rain and wind both decrease as we move through tonight. There is a definite diurnal component to the rain and we see in the models a distinct downward trend in both intensity and areal extent between 800pm and 1100pm. Mainly dry weather is expected from 1100pm on. As for the wind, the peak in the wind will occur this afternoon and evening with a noted downward trend in gustiness after 1100pm. Wind gusts through the evening will reach 20-30 mph with a few higher gusts. After midnight especially winds will decrease considerably. - Frost and freeze conditions tonight We have gone ahead and issued a Frost Advisory for our southern 2 rows of counties, essentially from Holland to Lansing to the south. To the north of there we have issued a Freeze Warning. The exception is the U.S. 10 row of counties where the growing season has ended due to earlier freezes. We are looking at temperatures tonight ranging from the upper 20s north in Central Lower Michigan to the lower 30s in the south towards I-94. Frost and freeze potential may occur in spots again Saturday night. The best chances will be across our southern CWA where there will be less wind. - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week High pressure will dominate the area weather both at the surface and aloft from this weekend through the upcoming work week. Ensemble members of the GFS and the ECWMF are entirely dry during this time frame which leads to a high confidence dry forecast. High temperatures will rebound from the 50s this weekend to the 60s next week. The normal high for today in Grand Rapids for reference is 61. We will have below normal temperatures this weekend moderating to slightly above normal next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northwest winds pick up this afternoon with gusts around 25 to 30 knots. Showers continue before tapering off around 21Z to 00Z this evening. Some brief reductions to MVFR visibltiites are possible with heavier showers. Ceilings will bounce between MVFR and VFR until 00Z. MVFR ceilings will range around 1500 to 2500 feet. After 00Z we`ll see clearing overnight into Saturday with winds becoming lighter from 03Z to 09Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds on Lake Michigan are just beginning to reach the peak phase, which is between 200pm and 100am. The actual peak will occur late this afternoon and evening between roughly 400pm and 800pm. We have had winds reach gale force already, but the more sustained gale is just now commencing. Waves have pushed towards 10 feet in our nearshore area, but should exceed 10 feet as we move forward into the evening hours. Bottom line, the Gale Warning looks good. Southwest flow ramps up on Saturday and from Saturday late afternoon into Sunday we are looking at another wind/wave event. At this point it looks like a Small Craft Advisory event, but it may be borderline gale in our northern zones. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ064>067-071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...RAH MARINE...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion