504
FXUS63 KGRR 032342
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
642 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder Temperatures with Occasional Storminess
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
- Milder Temperatures with Occasional Storminess
The Great Lakes region will have two shortwave troughs coming
through this week as cold high pressure is replaced by milder
air streams in southwest flow.
The first trough is minoring out as it moves through and the bulk
of the QPF remains south of the forecast area. Current POPS and
QPF may need to be lowered, especially across the northern
forecast area, if this trough continues the flatter, weakening
trend shown in some of the model guidance.
A more significant trough ejects out of the western CONUS by the
end of the week with rain expected ahead and along a slow moving
baroclinic zone from late Friday through Saturday. Current
indications are for chance probabilities (30 to 40 percent) for
QPF over an inch of rain possible by Saturday, especially with any
embedded convection.
Quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend with an active pattern
continuing into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
MVFR (to IFR over the southern locations along I-94) cigs are
slowly improving from north to south as drier air moves back into
the area. MKG/GRR/LAN still expected to largely clear out this
evening, though it`s now looking like it`ll take longer for the
southern sites of AZO/BTL/JXN to get rid of MVFR cigs, potentially
after midnight. The signal for development of some fog, again
especially over the southern sites, is still there but is not
strong, especially if the clouds take their time dissipating.
Thus, not thinking the fog will be a big event tonight. Wednesday
still looks VFR and nice most of the day at most sites, though
another round of MVFR to IFR conditions (cigs and eventually
vsbys as well) move in from the south late early Wednesday
evening.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...AMD
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion