790 FXUS63 KGRR 040739 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 239 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry Today, Rain Tonight into Thursday - Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday - Above Normal Temperatures Into Next Week (normal highs upper 30s to low 40s) && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 - Dry Today, Rain Tonight into Thursday Dry conditions are expected today with light southeasterly winds and high pressure over the area. Pressure heights will increase into this afternoon ahead of the upper level low as it tracks through the Plains. Positive vorticity advection and an increase in low to mid level moisture move in this evening with the potential for a few showers largely south of I-96. Better chances arrive with the surface low Thursday with a deep moisture profile and better lift. Depending on how fast rain moves in toward the US-10 corridor Thursday morning, there could be a brief window for some freezing rain (20-30 percent). As the low departs late Thursday afternoon low level moisture lingers potentially producing some drizzle overnight. Probabilities of a half inch or more are 30 to 60 percent south of M-46. - Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday A warm front moves through Friday with associated positive vorticity advection and moisture bringing with it another chance for showers early in the day. Instability builds into Friday night with a strengthening low level jet in the southwest flow ahead of a deep upper level trough. The low to mid level jet could be in the 50-70 knot range by Friday night with MUCAPE values around 500 to 1000 J/kg into Saturday morning. The timing of the front varies and will impact our risk for severe weather Friday night into Saturday morning. Keep up to date with the forecast as we fine tune timing and the potential for severe storms. - Above Normal Temperatures Into Next Week (normal highs upper 30s to low 40s) Today high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with lows tonight around 30 to 40. Thursday will be cooler with the rainy weather and cloud cover, but after the warm front moves through Friday highs in the 50s and 60s are expected with the potential to tie or break high and warm low temperature records Friday into Saturday. These warm temperatures continue into next week but the second half next week looks to cool down as seen in the long range ensemble members. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1131 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 IR loop shows a thin band of stratus near I-96 that`s been wavering over GRR. The band is showing signs of diminishing and we`ll be optimistic with ceilings overnight. Some fog has developed at JXN and that`ll persist overnight, but likely not get much more restrictive due to the higher cloud canopy over far southern Lower from convection to the south. Look for VFR conditions much of Wednesday. However, RH cross sections show abundant low level moisture advecting northward Wednesday evening which will result in MVFR/IFR ceilings. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion