229 FXUS63 KGRR 130638 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 238 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances of rain into Friday - Dry and seasonable this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 - Multiple chances of rain into Friday The last of the shower activity from the showers and storms that started moving in last evening are now along U.S.-131 and rapidly moving east. Once these are gone in the next couple of hours, we will stay dry until toward midnight tonight. We will see low clouds on the backside of the low spread across the northern half of the forecast area late this morning and early this afternoon. They will then move out by this evening. The cold front will drop down to just south of the state to about the I-80 corridor by 00z this evening. It will then slow down for a bit as we see a short wave eject from the Western long wave trough, and ride along it. A 30 knot low level jet mainly just south of the area will force showers to develop over roughly the south half of the forecast area. Thunder chances tonight look much less likely, with the sufficient instability present only near the I-94 corridor. Wednesday looks to be mainly dry as we see upper ridging build over the area behind the departing system Tuesday night, and the system organizing to move in here Thursday into Friday. The Thursday/Friday system will be quite dynamic as we have a strong northern branch wave diving southeast from Canada, and a wave across the SW U.S. lifting up to the NE and phasing with the northern stream system. Strong upward motion will move over the area on Thursday ahead of the phased long wave trough. An associated 40-50 knot low level jet will help to focus moisture transport over the area Thursday, bringing better rains to the southern half of the area once again. Thunder chances once again look limited to the I-94 corridor. Showers will continue Friday, with the focus of the rain being along the lakeshore. This will occur as the upper trough moves overhead briefly. The upper jet core sinks south of the state briefly, providing for deep colder air and instability over the lake. The lake is generally sitting around 15-17C and 850 mb temps are forecast to drop to around 0C Friday afternoon. The better lake effect rain showers will tend to be earlier. We see the upper jet core lift NE out of the area by later in the day. This will allow subsidence to help limit the vertical development of the lake effect by evening. We will see quite windy conditions with 40 mph gusts very plausible, especially near the lakeshore. - Dry and seasonable this weekend into early next week The upper trough will zip away from the area late Friday, and upper ridging will be building in quickly by Saturday. This upper ridge will be slow to move out due to the amplified upper air pattern with the stronger system just off of the east coast, and the closed off low to the west. Eventually this closed off low will weaken, and likely eject to the NE toward the area sometime early next week. This is likely to be our next chance of rain after Friday. The timing of it will depend how quick or slow the upper low is to dampen and move up toward the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 The last of showers and storms that will affect the terminals tonight are exiting the KLAN area just prior to the beginning of this forecast period. Some mid clouds are lingering behind. The more impactful thing this morning is the low level wind shear with 10 knots of wind at the sfc and almost 50 knots at 2k ft. This will diminish by 10z as the wind core moves by. Most of the area will stay dry and VFR through the day. Model guidance is indicating low clouds in the MVFR category affecting KMKG along the frontal passage and just behind. Areas further south will see less cloud cover, and VFR conditions. We are expecting at least a few showers approaching the terminals late in this forecast period. Have opted for VCSH at this time, and it can be better refined as we get closer to that time. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 We will continue to see Small Craft Advisory conditions persist into the early afternoon hours when the better gradient on the back side of the incoming low moves east. Waves coming down will follow their typical lag behind the winds coming down. Our next marine headline event looks to begin on Thursday out ahead of the stronger system moving in over the region. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely on the front end, with Gales likely on Friday on the back side of the system with strong cold air advection over the warmer lake. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion