056 FXUS63 KGRR 210800 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 300 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake Effect Snow Tonight into Monday Morning - Snow Could Impact Travel Tuesday-Wednesday - Temperature Roller Coaster Late Week into Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 - Lake Effect Snow Tonight into Monday Morning After a period of record to near-record warmth across the region, much more typical late February weather settles in for a bit and the first opportunity for lake effect snow in quite some time arrives late tonight into Monday. While the main low that provided strong winds with some snow on Friday has moved east and weakened, lake aggregate troughing has set up over the region with a weak surface low indicated over Lake Huron keeping some light to occasionally moderate synoptic snow going near and north of U.S. 10 and into northern Lower MI. During the day, most of our region dries out. As we move past 00z tonight, renewed upper troughing moves over the Great Lakes and 850mb cold air advection commences as -10C to around -15C air arrives steadily from late tonight into Monday morning. This air will be plenty cold enough to create over lake instability with delta Ts getting to around -17C or -18C and lake induced CAPE values of 50-100 J/kg per the Nam12. Moisture depth actually looks really good with 15-20k ft indicated via Nam12 Bufkit soundings for various lakeshore locations, due in part to the lake aggregate low over Lake Huron sinking southeast and providing some mid to upper level snow production over the developing lake induced clouds and snow showers. As a result, as we head through the day Sunday there may be a hybrid look to the radar with some synoptic snow and lake effect snow occurring. While omegas within the DGZ itself look to be only -2 ubar/s or so, there will be generally decent lift in the 925-850mb layer with -3 to -6 ubar/s, highest near LDM and LWA and especially down toward BEH. Expect a wind component to be a factor as a strong surface high moves into the northern Plains (~1045mb) and a developing Nor`easter moves up the East Coast (970s mb), placing Michigan in between these two synoptic patterns and thus in a region of enhanced pressure gradient force with wind gusts of 30-35 mph likely as snow occurs. This may add a dicey element to travel conditions at times wherever snow bands occur especially near and west of US 131 Sunday into Monday morning. The NBM highs across the region may be a touch high on Sunday (low-mid 30s) with deterministic ECMWF/GFS/GEM supporting highs in the upper 20s to around 32 for much of the region, and certainly dropping colder Sunday night with teens to around 20 expected. The probability of 2" or more of snow during this period is 60-80% from Ludington to Pentwater/Hart and then in a triangular region from Holland to Kalamazoo and over to Pentwater. The probability of 4" or more for these same regions is 20-40%. Current storm total forecast amounts there are 1"-3" with spots of 3"-4" possible. Elsewhere it is looking like 0.5"-2.0" total from late tonight into Monday morning. Some delayed travel may occur. - Snow Could Impact Travel Tuesday-Wednesday Model guidance indicates a clipper system will likely impact Lower Michigan late Tuesday into Wednesday with snow being the expected precip type in spite of this being a warm advection event. Antecedent surface temperatures below freezing before snow occurs may aid in producing some slick conditions on roads. ECE/CMC probabilities for 1" or more along and north of I-96 are 60-80% late Tuesday into Wednesday with deterministic runs indicating 1"-3" possible. The timing of the snow may catch the Tuesday evening commute in this region so some impacts are possible then, as well as the Wednesday morning commute. Some shift in this area of snow may occur so trends will be monitored. - Temperature Roller Coaster Late Week into Weekend Ensemble guidance certainly has some spread late week into the weekend. Temps may recover into the upper 30s to around 40 Wednesday afternoon then drop back down Thursday with highs near or possibly below freezing. Mid 40s or warmer are currently favored by next Friday before another cold front may sweep through the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1107 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 Any snow overnight should be light. We`ll need to monitor for some drizzle/freezing drizzle as there could be a lack of cloud ice that would be needed for snow. Otherwise MVFR conditions are expected into Saturday with breezy westerly winds around 25 knots into early Saturday morning. Another round of snow moves in late Saturday night, but better chances are after 6Z. Therefore only included a Prob30 group between 3-6Z for MKG, GRR, AZO, and BTL. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion