724 FXUS63 KGRR 011639 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1139 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clearing skies and cooler conditions through Monday - Mainly rain likely on Tuesday - Increasingly warmer and wet late in the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2406 - Clearing skies and cooler conditions through Monday The light snow from last evening is already a distant memory having already moved to the Lower Great Lakes and further east. The only thing remaining this morning from that system is some linger lower clouds over the southern third of the state. Our weather will be dominated by a fairly strong Canadian sfc ridge for the next couple of days. The air at 850 mb is cold enough for lake effect today, ranging from -11 to -17C across the area. However, we are on the anti-cyclonic side of the Northern branch of the upper jet, and the low level flow is offshore over the area being from the NNE. The models are in good agreement that we will see the clouds clear out of most of the area today, except for maybe the far NW corner where some lake effect clouds may linger. The aforementioned cold air at 850 mb will limit max temperatures today to the mid 20s to near 30. We will see a moderation of high temps for Monday as the sfc ridge moves east of the area, and southerly flow brings 850 mb temps to around 0C by Monday evening. This will support highs back into the 40s. - Mainly rain likely on Tuesday What had been looking like the potential for an impactful Tuesday morning with some mixed precipitation, now looks like that potential has diminished significantly. Even the chance of precipitation in general has gone down quite a bit. The amount of rain has diminished a bit as the southern branch of the jet is remaining a bit more suppressed as previously shown by a lot of the models and ensemble members. The wave responsible for the Tuesday system is still there, but not as much of a direct hit as previously thought. In addition, the timing is a bit delayed compared to previous thinking. This gives temps a chance to warm enough to keep precipitation mainly liquid. - Increasingly warmer and wet late in the week Even though we see the system on Tuesday move by, and expect cooler temperatures, we will actually see temperatures warm a bit for Wednesday. There is not really any cold air to be tapped as the northern branch of the jet is well north over Canada. We see a quick sfc ridge move by, and allow southerly flow to become established early Wednesday. This will bring warmer air up and over the area. The core of the southern jet should stay south of the area on Wednesday, and keep any precipitation south of the state. By Thursday, we will see the long wave trough over the Western U.S. take shape and complete the pattern change for our region. This will be that a SW flow aloft is established. This will allow energy ejecting from the western trough to lift NE toward the area. The first of those systems will approach Thursday. The system will draw quite a bit of warm air northward with it, and some rich moisture from the Gulf. Then another system will quickly organize and follow on Friday into Saturday. There is high confidence that we will be on the warm side of this system. Temperatures are easily going to be in the 50s, if not higher. Also with the arrival of the warm and wet weather, instability will build over the area, bringing a threat of some storms with both systems from Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 High confidence in VFR conditons through the TAF period as a dry airmass and high pressure dominate the forecast. A few lake effect clouds will affect GRR/MKG through the day before clear skies, maybe with some cirrus for AZO/BTL/JXN, dominate the rest of the period. The widespread low and mid clouds will bifurcate the area to the north and south. Northeast winds today will become light and variable tonight before increasing from the southeast Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion