911 FXUS63 KGRR 071838 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clearing tonight, dry through Wednesday - Warmer than normal temperatures through mid week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 - Clearing tonight, dry through Wednesday The upper low that created showers yesterday is exiting the state to the east. Visible satellite loop shows a well defined back edge to the clouds and clearing has reached the lake shore. As the upper low moves east and ridging builds in from the west, the clearing will move across the rest of the cwa this afternoon/evening. The upper flow pattern across the northern tier of states is generally northwest to southeast. Typical of this time of year, short waves moving through the flow will cross the state frequently. The next wave will move through Sunday followed by another wave over northern Lower Tuesday. A much more robust short wave will dig south across the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. The wave that moves through Sunday has little moisture with it and we won`t see anything more than clouds late tonight and Sunday morning. The short wave Tuesday moves across Lake Superior and won`t produce much more than some clouds Tuesday night and Wednesday. The deeper wave Wednesday/Thursday may give us some precipitation, depending on where the surface low ends up. Models are showing the surface low moving across the northern OH Valley Wednesday/Thursday and would pull the precipitation south. The exception may be for the lake shore area with persistent north flow and colder temperatures may produce some lake effect rain showers. For now, we`ll - Warmer than normal temperatures through mid week Highs are expected in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Wednesday, before cooling into the 40s Thursday/Friday. Normal highs are around 50. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 MVFR ceilings are beginning to scatter out as the influence of low pressure diminishes and high pressure ridging noses in. Expecting most of the area cloud cover to scatter to VFR in the next 1 to 3 hours, with VFR continuing through late tonight. The next low pressure trough approaching from the northwest will wash a weak front over the area Sunday morning. The HRRR and RRFS are indicating likely ceilings below 2,000 feet and down to IFR for a time Sunday morning. Conditions will deteriorate from northwest to southeast. Some improvement may occur Sunday afternoon with cloud bases climbing above 2,000 feet and going broken to scattered. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...CAS

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion