108 FXUS63 KGRR 031655 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1255 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light Rain Tonight - Several Chances For Frost/Freeze Conditions Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 - Light Rain Tonight Tonight sees a mid-level wave track across the area dragging a cold front with it. Compared to yesterday guidance suggests a more robust mid-level wave and better moisture quality. This brings at least low rain chances as far south as I-96, potentially further south, and warrants scattered PoPs north of approx. M20. - Several Chances For Frost/Freeze Conditions Next Week Conditions then are favored to remain dry into early next week as even with frontal boundaries and several shortwaves persisting in northwest flow, moisture quality is poor. Will keep the going NBM dry forecast given that which keeps conditions dry. The main concern is frost, particularly Sunday Night and Monday Night. Behind the cold front, 850mb temps fall to around 0C along with a drier airmass and surface high. This will favor ample radiational cooling. Sunday Night frost potential will be primarily across the northern CWA similar to this morning. However the coldest air arrives Monday Night with lows in the low to mid 30s. More widespread frost is possible with potentially freezing conditions across the northern interior CWA, especially in the known cold hollows. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Diurnal Cu have developed predominantly along and south of I94. Most terminals should see indefinite ceilings over the next few hours but intermittent VFR cigs are likely based on satellite trends over the next few hours at AZO/BTL and have added a TEMPO group accordingly. Tonight, widespread mid and high clouds move in with showers likely remaining north of the terminals. Then elevated dewpoints behind a cold front bring additional diurnal Cu development Sunday morning. Cloud bases with this will likely be in the 2.5-3.5kft range. Southeast winds today are expected to become northwesterly Sunday behind the aforementioned cold front.&& .MARINE... Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Diurnal Cu have developed predominantly along and south of I94. Most terminals should see indefinite ceilings over the next few hours but intermittent VFR cigs are likely based on satellite trends over the next few hours at AZO/BTL and have added a TEMPO group accordingly. Tonight, widespread mid and high clouds move in with showers likely remaining north of the terminals. Then elevated dewpoints behind a cold front bring additional diurnal Cu development Sunday morning. Cloud bases with this will likely be in the 2.5-3.5kft range. Southeast winds today are expected to become northwesterly Sunday behind the aforementioned cold front. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ847>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion