570 FXUS63 KGRR 132330 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 630 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warmer through Tuesday, wintry mix possible mid week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 - Dry and warmer through Tuesday, wintry mix possible mid week Visible loop shows clear skies across the region this afternoon due to high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. As the high tracks toward the SE US, a southern stream low will move east across the southern tier of states. Models show the precipitation shield moving as far north as central Indiana. The cwa will remain dry, however, we may see some mid/high clouds move into the region Saturday. Once that low moves away Sunday, predominately clear skies will return that will continue into early next week. Meanwhile, a northern stream low will push a cold front south into Lower MI late Monday, creating a baroclinic zone that an eastward moving lee side low will use to track toward Lower MI Wednesday. Strong isentropic ascent in the warm sector will result in precipitation developing across central Lower. The ECMWF ensembles keep the baroclinic zone a bit farther south than the GFS ensembles do and so they develop some freezing rain across the central cwa Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The GFS is a bit warmer and farther north and is mostly rain. DESI LREF guidance shows a 15-20 percent chance of 0.05 inches of ice during this time. There`s enough model guidance to get our attention to the possibility of freezing rain, but it`s a bit too early to start pinning down timing and amounts. Once that low moves by, another is quickly on it`s heels Thursday night and Friday. This system will be colder and the snow potential is higher. LREF probabilities show a 33 percent chance of 2 inches of snow north of I-96. Probabilities will changes as we go through the weekend into next week, but we`ll keep an eye on it. High temperatures during the next week will climb into the lower 40s Saturday and rise to the mid 40s Sunday. Across the southern cwa, 50s are possible by Wednesday, but that depends on exactly where the baroclinic zone sets up. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 630 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 Primary aviation concern over the next 24 hours is the potential development of fog overnight. Clear skies and light winds will once again allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions. However, higher dewpoints make the chances a bit greater than last night. The greatest concern is at MKG and GRR where temps are likely to fall to or below crossover temps overnight; especially at MKG with dewpoints currently in the low 30s. Have included restrictions at both terminals. Confidence is lower at the other terminals where overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer so have limited to 6SM visbys with this package. Given the dependence on the extent of radiational cooling, this is a moderate confidence forecast, with details becoming clearer over the coming hours as temperature and dewpoint trends evolve. Any fog that does develop burns off by mid-morning with mainly mid and high clouds through the rest of the day. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion