087 FXUS63 KGRR 021753 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 153 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Potential Tonight - Cool with Occasional Showers Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 - Frost Potential Tonight We have issued a Frost Advisory for tonight for roughly the eastern half of the forecast area with a Freeze Warning for Osceola and Clare Counties. Cool and very dry air mass in place with a 16 degree dew point currently at Cadillac. So even though clouds and winds are increasing after midnight in a warm advection pattern, temps could still plummet to near or below freezing by midnight. The threat will diminish late tonight as clouds arrive and winds increase. - Cool with Occasional Showers Next Week Upper troughing will prevail through next week across the Great Lakes region, bringing mostly cooler than normal temperatures and occasional showers as shortwave troughs pass through in fast northwest flow. A weak clipper arrives Sunday, with the sfc low center tracking across northern Lower Michigan. QPF is negligible as moisture is limited. Thunder along with gusty winds are possible on Monday afternoon and evening as low pressure deepens near James Bay and a trailing cold front moves through. The front stalls across the Ohio Valley with a surface low tracking northeast along the front. At this point it looks like the precip shield stays east of Lower Michigan. Even so, showers are possible on Thursday as steep lapse rates would support diurnally-enhanced updrafts and it is cold enough at mid and low levels for them to produce graupel. Frost/freeze conditions could persist into next weekend as cold northwest flow regime continues. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 Diurnal cu developed as expected this morning and will dissipate around sunset. Low level winds will increase overnight ahead of a cold front and we included LLWS for that. We`ll also see a mid deck of clouds move in from the northwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 A SCA is in effect for Sunday as southwest winds gust to 30 knots during the day. After a brief lull Sunday night, winds will increase again and another SCA will be needed for Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ038-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ039-040. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...04 MARINE...Ostuno

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion