309 FXUS63 KGRR 061931 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 231 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong To Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening, Again Saturday Morning - Above Normal Temperatures into Next Week - Mid-Week System Brings Chance Of Storms and Snow && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 - Strong To Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening, Again Saturday Morning Several rounds of storms are expected over the next 24 hours, with the potential of strong to severe storms with each system. Round 1: This Afternoon and Evening The next round of convection looks to arrive from mid afternoon through mid-evening as the convection across Illinois propagates to the northeast and redevelops. The warm front currently near the Indiana state line will push north driven by low-level advection. Latest trends suggest it will set up invof I-96 bringing the best chance for surface based convection to the I-94 corridor west of Jackson, potentially as far north as I-96. Hail to 1 inch in diameter is possible in surface based and elevated convection, with winds to 60 mph possible in any surface based storms. Brief, weak tornadoes are possible given the strong amount of environmental shear with any surface based storms. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are expected in any storms. Round 2: Saturday Morning The next round arrives after 3am Saturday as additional thunderstorms arrive from the west with a 60 knot low-level jet. Storms then advance east through the next few hours, clearing the area near daybreak. Questions remain as to how far north the surface based instability gets, with recent short range model guidance suggesting the best potential for surface based destabilization across the southern half of the area. If sufficient instability builds, hail to 1 inch will be possible in any discrete storms, and wind gusts to 60 mph possible in any clusters/bowing segments. Given the strong kinematics at play, the concern for brief tornadoes continues if surface based storms are realized, likely via QLCS processes given weak hodographs above 1km. However, this is reliant on convection being surface based/low-level instability which is far from certain and will be impacted by earlier convection. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are expected in any storms. Additional thunderstorm redevelopment is possible with the passage of the cold front late morning into the early afternoon. If sufficient instability lingers ahead of the front isolated strong to marginally severe storms are possible, with damaging winds the main concern in any such convection. The other concern is heavy rainfall potentially leading to minor flooding across portions of the area. HREF LPMM guidance continues to suggest 2-3 inch rainfall totals are possible in isolated spots if training storms occur. This will also send some of our quick reacting river tributaries towards action stage (e.g. Sycamore Creek, the Red Cedar River) however they are not expected to reach flood stage. - Above Normal Temperatures into Next Week Highs today, as well as ahead of the cold front on Saturday will reach the 60s in many areas. It will be slightly cooler Sunday in the post frontal airmass with highs in the 50s. The 60s then return Monday ahead of our next system. Some record highs and warm lows may be tied or broken over the next few days. Check the climate section below for details on records. - Mid-Week System Brings Chance Of Storms and Snow Our next significant system arrives in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe ahead of phasing northern and southern stream waves across the middle of the CONUS. There are questions as to where the surface baroclinic zone sets up impacting whether and to what degree we break into the warm sector of the system. ML guidance has trended down with the potential for organized convection given a corresponding ensemble trend for a weaker and more southerly surface low. However, chances are not zero and we will continue to monitor for any shifts in the forecast. 850 mb temps crash as the colder northern stream air arrives for Wednesday. This will lead to rain mixing with and possibly changing over to snow on the back side of the system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 Rain and some embedded thunderstorms are moving into Lower Michigan from the southwest at 18Z. The rain will actually improve LIFR conditions to IFR and eventually MVFR this afternoon as visbys improve and low stratus breaks up. There should be a lull in the rain/thunder tonight before another line of rain and thunderstorms moves through late tonight, probably around 10 to 12Z. LLWS of 40 to 50 knots can be expected this today and tonight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026 Record High Temperatures... Friday March 6th... Grand Rapids... 68 (1983) Lansing... 65 (2009) Kalamazoo... 72 (1983) Battle Creek... 68 (1973) Holland... 72 (1983) Muskegon... 67 (1983) Saturday March 7th... Grand Rapids... 72 (2000) Lansing... 74 (2000) Kalamazoo... 76 (2000) Battle Creek... 76 (2000) Holland... 71 (2000) Muskegon... 64 (2000) Record Warm Lows... Saturday March 7th... Grand Rapids... 53 (2012) Lansing... 50 (2012) Kalamazoo... 50 (1983) Battle Creek... 51 (1973) Holland... 56 (2012) Muskegon... 50 (2012) && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Ostuno CLIMATE...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion