026 FXUS63 KGRR 241936 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 236 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild tonight/Tuesday with rain showers - Winter weather arrives Tuesday night/Wednesday, travel impacts possible - Cold with snow showers Thursday through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Mild tonight/Tuesday with rain showers Little change in the forecast for tonight. The first area of low pressure from the southern stream will move northward into the cwa late tonight. Low chance (20-30 percent) of showers prior to 10z. The main push of precipitation will arrive in the far southwest cwa around 12z and move across the rest of the cwa during the day. All of it will be rain as temperatures will be around 40 overnight. - Winter weather arrives Tuesday night/Wednesday, travel impacts possible A deepening northern stream low will push a strong cold front across the cwa after midnight Tuesday night. By 12z Wednesday, h8 temperatures are progd to have fallen to around -5c. Rain showers along the front will turn to snow showers by morning. The ECMWF/GFS/3km Nam are similar in the speed of the cold air moving in. The difference in pressure between the deepening low and the strong high over the Plains will cause winds to increase substantially after the cold front moves through. ECMWF ensembles show a mean around 60 mph at Ludington and 58 mph at MKG; the GFS ensemble mean is 10 mph lower with wind gusts. Either way, Wednesday will be windy and we`ll probably need a headline for it along the lakeshore. Lake effect snow will also develop Wednesday and continue into Thursday. Temperatures will fall through the 30s Wednesday. Travel impacts may be mitigated by the warmer ground temperatures and by above freezing surface temperatures. However, that could change by Wednesday night as temperatures fall into the 20s. Some accumulation is possible with perhaps 1-3 inches Wednesday night. While the dgz is 5k-7k ft, much of the lift is noted below the dgz on Bufkit which may lead to smaller flake size. Also, the strong winds will likely cause flakes to break apart. While visibilities may be low, accumulations may be held in check. - Cold with snow showers Thursday through the weekend H8 temperatures will be near -12c Thursday through Friday. That creates high instability over the lake. A strong short wave moving through the upper trough will result in lake effect snow showers on Thanksgiving and will continue into Thursday night before diminishing Friday when drier air begins to flow over the lake. The next system from the southern stream will arrive Saturday. Given the cold air in place the precipitation will begin as snow but then mix with rain Sunday. We`ll like see some snow accumulation with that system as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR with ceilings above 12,000 feet this afternoon and part of the evening. Ceilings gradually deteriorate toward MVFR then IFR late tonight or Tuesday morning. MVFR may develop first around Ludington (LDM) after 00Z, then last around Lansing and Mount Pleasant (LAN, MOP) around 12Z. IFR with rain is likely to develop over the area between 12 and 15Z. A couple hours of error with the arrival of MVFR and IFR is possible for each TAF given the variance of models handling the increasing moisture in the lower atmosphere. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 A small craft advisory remains in effect through this evening. We issued a gale watch Wednesday through Thursday night. A deep low pressure system will combine with a strong high in the Rockies to tighten the pressure gradient and produce strong winds. This looks like a high end gale event and a few storm force wind gusts are certainly possible too late Wednesday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for LMZ844>848. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ846>849. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for LMZ849. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...CAS MARINE...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion