033
FXUS63 KGRR 072341
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
641 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon
- Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday
- Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday
- Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
- Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon
Surface observations at present show a robust cold front
(temperature difference across the front of 20F) that recently
passed through the Chicago metro area. Scattered showers are likely
along the front as it crosses lower Michigan. However, thunderstorms
are unlikely given a notable lack of instability across the region.
Any showers will clear the area by afternoon as the front exits to
the east. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely as the front moves
through.
- Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday
Surface ridging takes over as the dominating driver of our weather
pattern into Sunday. Sunday will be a bit cooler than the past few
days with highs in the 50s, still notably above normal for this time
of year. 850mb temps climb from near 0C tonight to near 10C Monday
driving Monday`s highs into the 60s. Expect dry conditions with
partly to mostly sunny skies.
- Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday
Our next system of note arrives mid next week ahead of phasing
northern and southern stream waves. Some questions remain on the
timing and degree of phasing, which will affect the low track and
subsequent northward extent of a warm sector across the area. the
GFS suite, including deterministic, ensemble, and AI model guidance
suggest a track closer to the Michigan/Indiana state line. The ECMWF
suite, excluding the AI-ECMWF (which is more in line with the GFS),
favors a more northerly track with the low moving across lower
Michigan. The main difference this would have is a faster changeover
to snow on the backside of the system. There is some potential for
thunderstorms as well, highest near I-94.
- Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week
The cold air brought in behind the northern stream wave will cause
precipitation to change over to snow, with a weak signal for a
period of wintry mix across Central Lower depending on how fast the
warm layer aloft cools. As the track of this system is fine-tuned
over the coming days, so will specifics on any wintry precipitation.
The upper-level troughing will result in a flip to a colder pattern
across the area, with 850mb temps going into the negatives. This
will bring highs back into the upper 30s/low 40s which is more
seasonable for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
Cold front has pushed east of all of our terminals, turning the
winds to come from the WNW and gusty. Some light drizzle/mist is
settling in behind the front, taking KMKG and KGRR down to IFR
cigs and vsbys. Based on radar trends, it looks like these
conditions will gradually make it into the rest of the terminals
this evening, before ending overnight. We expect conditions should
then improve to MVFR for cigs.
KMKG will see winds pick up once again late tonight after a brief
lull. The rest of the sites will then become gusty after daybreak
on Sunday. Wind gusts of around 30-35 knots are expected during
the heart of the day. The MVFR conditions should go VFR by mid
morning at all sites as low clouds clear out.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion