800
FXUS63 KGRR 152333
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
633 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild Weather first half of the week
- Mixed Precipitation events Mid week and possibly late week
- Snow Possible again late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
- Mild Weather first half of the week
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through midweek.
While none of the Max temps are approaching daily records, they
are still 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Temps tonight into tomorrow morning will drop back into the upper
20s. The warm daytime temps, some snowmelt, weak flow and cool
overnight temperatures should allow for some patchy freezing fog
tomorrow morning. A weak short wave trough will swing through
tomorrow. However, given the dry soundings, very little rain, if
any, will fall. Continue to go with a dry forecast through most
of Tuesday.
- Mixed Precipitation events Mid week and possibly late week
The mid week will be dominated by a negatively tilted upper level
ridge that a building large upper level low will undercut. That
colloquially is known as a "dirty ridge". That system will be
accompanied by warm air advection , a warm frontal boundary and
decent forcing along the boundary.
NAEFS PWATS is showing 0.75 by 18Z Wednesday. That moisture along
with isentropic ascent should bring rain to mix precipitation
across the area. The best chance for mix precipitation will be
through the northern forecast area, especially the US 10 corridor
Reed City eastward. Soundings at Mount Pleasant show higher
probabilities for rain, however there remains some chance for -FZRA/RA
mix Tuesday night.
Models start to diverge, however there remains a chance for a
secondary low that could bring more rain Thursday evening into
Friday. there is some question on low position and timing, which
would determine precip type. So rain/mixed precipitation remains
possible
- Snow Possible again late in the week.
The upper level pattern shifts late this week into next weekend.
That would put us back into the cold air and bring another chance
at winter. Temps will get back to normal with another chance for
snow this upcoming weekend. Still to early to hint at amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
VFR conditions at West MI TAF sites early this evening will once
again give way to MVFR visibilities in fog /3-5SM/ after about 04Z
tonight, thanks to light winds and strong radiational cooling
over remaining snow pack. Otherwise, weak/diffuse surface ridging
will move across the region, and be located east of MI by
daybreak. This will turn winds to the S/SW Monday, with speeds
increasing to around 10 kts in the morning, and to 10-15 kts with
gusts near 20 kts in the afternoon. Mid-high clouds will be
prevalent, thanks to WAA associated with disturbance over the
northern Great Lakes.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Smith
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion