711 FXUS63 KGRR 220812 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 312 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow Ending this Morning, Another Round this Afternoon - Bitterly Cold Starting Tonight && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 - Snow Ending this Morning, Another Round this Afternoon Water vapor imagery when combined with the airmass RGB satellite product shows a significant intrusion of high PV stratospheric air down into the troposphere that is progressing eastward over far southwest Lower MI at this time. This PV intrusion is providing both lift and conditional instability to the ongoing LES that is near its peak intensity. Snowfall rates will likely taper slightly as we get closer to the morning commute, but travel will still challenging. Also, given that the PV intrusion extends well west into WI where convective snow showers are also ongoing (without any help needed from Lake MI), it is unlikely that snow over SW Lower MI will shut off completely until we get closer to noon. Travel, particularly in the more exposed areas, will remain challenging today due to some blowing and drifting of snow aided by wind gusts from the west approaching 30 mph this afternoon. Additionally, model guidance is hinting at a lower tropospheric trough swinging through the area this afternoon and dropping another inch or two of snow with greatest amounts displaced more inland towards the US-131 corridor. So, be prepared for possible rapid changes in visibility, especially on north-south oriented roads (such as US-131) where both falling and blowing snow can be expected to negatively impact the afternoon/evening commute. - Bitterly Cold Thursday night into Saturday Have upgraded the extreme cold watch to a cold weather advisory due to a very high certainty of criteria (apparent temperature at or below minus 15F) being met. The most severe conditions will be Friday morning, however advisory criteria will likely continue to be met the entire day (with the possible exception of extreme SW Lower MI that will be underneath a plume of lake modified air). It is not out of the question that parts of the advisory will later need to be upgraded to an extreme cold warning (apparent temperatures at or below minus 25F) for some local areas, particularly farther north. Some guidance such as the HREF and EC Ensemble has been well into this territory, but there is not yet enough consensus in the full model suite to go this drastic just yet. For example, the NBM 5.0 for Grand Rapids shows about a 40 percent chance of apparent temperatures even reaching minus 20F Friday morning. Regardless of which headlines are in effect, the key takeaway here is that there will be dangerous cold in place beginning early Friday morning, about 24 hours from now, and this will last into Saturday. Please refer to the recently issued NPWGRR product for suggested preparedness and precautionary actions to take. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 We are seeing lighter lake effect snow showers at KMKG and KGRR to start off this forecast period. A more organized wave is moving across the I-94 corridor, and will bring LIFR to possibly VLIFR conditions in moderate to heavy snow through about 08-09z. Snow showers will become lighter for the latter half of the night and first part of the day. MVFR conditions will dominate in this relative lull. The lake effect will ramp up once again by early afternoon. KMKG, KGRR, and even KLAN will get into the stronger snow showers due to the flow, and extended convergence zone. This will bring more IFR back in for those sites, and could clip KAZO and KBTL. Then, late in this forecast period, we will see the arctic front drop through the area. This will likely have a band of more intense snow showers associated with it. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 No changes planned to the current forecast and headlines. Dangerous gale and heavy freezing spray conditions will continue through today and tonight. Freezing spray will last even longer thanks to bitterly cold air crossing Lake Michigan. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ037- 038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...TJT

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion