848
FXUS63 KGRR 141121
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet Weather into Tuesday then Potential Storminess
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
- Quiet Weather into Tuesday then Potential Storminess
Quiet weather pattern continues through the weekend as a southern
stream low tracks south of Lower Michigan. The northern stream
remains separate with a clipper low passing north of Lower
Michigan on Monday. Milder temperatures continue as the polar jet
remains to the north until later next week.
The next chance for precipitation is late Tuesday into Wednesday
in an area of warm advection and isentropic ascent with enough
moisture to bring a chance of rain or mixed precip with the
highest chances across the northern forecast area. Thermal
profiles of model forecast soundings show potential for freezing
rain across the northern forecast areas, where there have been
freezing rain episodes during previous periods of milder
temperatures this winter.
A second wave of low pressure late in the week could also bring
rain/mixed precipitation which should change to snow by late
Friday as cold air filters in on the back side of the low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
Patchy MVFR conditions in shallow ground fog at MKG early this
morning will dissipate with VFR conditions expected today. Then
low level moisture this evening will result in more fog formation
with MVFR conditions and patchy IFR possible overnight.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion