801 FXUS63 KGRR 062317 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 617 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind chills below zero tonight with lake effect snow across US10 and the lakeshore - Brief burst of snow Sunday morning - Moderating temperatures next week with low chances of precipitation && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 - Wind chills below zero tonight with lake effect snow across US10 and the lakeshore An arctic front is dropping across the CWA this afternoon with winds increasing to 30-40 mph. Scattered snow showers are ongoing immediately behind the front. As the core of cold air rotates through, lake effect snow showers develop tonight into Saturday. A quick inch or two of snow is likely across the lakeshore given the northerly flow regime, as well as across Lake and western Osceola counties being on the fringe of a Lake Superior connected band across APXs area. In collaboration with APX... totals are forecast to be to low to warrant an advisory across any of our counties, however isolated totals around 3 inches are possible across northern Lake County. In addition, lows near zero with winds around 10 mph tonight will support a chilly Saturday morning across the area. Morning wind chills will be in the -5F to -15F range. The coldest conditions will be across Clare and Osceola counties in our traditional cold hollows where a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect tonight. - Brief burst of snow Sunday morning Lake effect snow showers wind down Saturday with our next chance of precipitation arriving Sunday morning. This will be associated with an axis of 850mb FGEN crossing over the area providing forcing in conjunction with a mid-level wave. Given moisture is relatively marginal, snow totals should be an inch or less across the area. - Moderating temperatures next week with low chances of precipitation The pattern shifts a bit warmer early next week as the ridging across the western CONUS moves into the region. It flattens as it does so with several ridge-riding shortwaves. There will be a strong upper-level jet and associated low-level baroclinic zone across the central CONUS early to mid-next week. Shortwaves will lead to the development of a low/lows along the baroclinic zone, which may bring us chances for light precipitation through the week. Depending on the timing/position of the shortwaves/baroclinic zone, mixed precipitation could be in play as reflected in the EPS precipitation type progs. This far out, any specifics on timing and precipitation type are not possible to provide, but will be ironed out in the coming days. Temperatures will be much closer to normal than recent weeks, even above normal Tuesday with highs topping out near 40. sct && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 608 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 Gusty north winds behind the arctic front are slowly diminishing and we should see prevailing winds speeds aob 10 knots around midnight. The very cold air behind the front is generating some snow showers closer to the lake shore and we included that in the MKG TAF. Otherwise, mainly flurries at the other terminals with broken VFR cigs. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for MIZ039-040. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion