859 FXUS63 KGRR 031133 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 633 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning Showers, then Mostly Dry through Thursday - Turning Colder and Unsettled Friday into the Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Morning Showers, then Mostly Dry through Thursday Rain is moving through this morning with the shortwave trough and mid level moisture axis. Dry conditions return 6AM to 10AM from west to east as dry air quickly moves in aloft. Winds will be breezy with southwest winds initially this morning gusting around 30 to 35 mph and then turn to the northwest with the front this afternoon. Areas along the lakeshore mainly north of Muskegon could see gusts to 40 mph. Increasing heights and subsidence will bring a period of dry conditions through Tuesday. Cloud cover is expected to increase Tuesday night with the low level jet and warm air advection providing some lift ahead of the next shortwave. However the overall track of the low pressure system has trended northward along with the better moisture and dry air will limit our rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday (20 to 30 percent). This is also seen in the cluster analysis with most members keeping the area dry through Thursday. - Turning Colder and Unsettled Friday into the Weekend As we head into Friday and the weekend the upper level pattern becomes more active. Cluster analysis is in agreement in the overall timing and depth of the shortwave trough moving through Thursday night into Friday. This is leading to a higher percent chance for rain (60 to 80 percent) in the NBM ensemble forecast. However there is still uncertainty with exact amounts as the 10th to 90th percentile spread is less than a tenth of an inch to around an inch across the area. The upper level low that will bring the shortwave through Friday will linger over the Hudson Bay area before moving south into the Great Lakes region. This will keep a cooler air mass in place along with additional rounds of lift through the weekend. Rain is likely through Saturday, but depending on the overall temperature profile that develops we could see our first snowflakes of the season Saturday night into Monday. The cluster analysis however varies into several solutions. Depending on the solution the air mass may be colder or warmer which would impact any chances for snow. Either way we should see the coldest air yet this season with NBM ensemble probabilities of high temperatures less than 40 degrees in the 40 to 60 percent range across the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 633 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 The back edge of the rain and clouds is moving into Ludington currently and will continue to track east this morning exiting the area around 14Z. Ceilings may briefly drop to 2000 feet at GRR otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Gusty southwest winds will turn to the northwest behind the front later this morning and afternoon with gusts remaining around 25 to 30 knots through the day. Winds become lighter around 00Z resulting in a brief period of low level wind shear through about 6Z with the stronger winds aloft. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 Southwest gales continue this morning before a lull during the late morning and early afternoon before northwest winds build behind the front. There is higher confidence in persistent gales north of Grand Haven. South of Grand Haven gales could be more isolated. Wave heights peak this morning in the 7 to 11 ft range with 6 to 9 foot waves expected into this evening. High pressure moving in tonight into Tuesday will cause winds wand waves to decrease with wave heights dropping below 4 feet Tuesday morning. Winds and waves build again Tuesday night into Wednesday as another low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes with gusty southwest winds Tuesday night becoming northwesterly Wednesday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion