545 FXUS63 KGRR 070639 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 239 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly Dry Into The Weekend - Increasing Chances for Rain Sunday into Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 - Mostly Dry Into The Weekend Within the northwest flow today we`ll see the shortwave trough this morning exit the area with skies clearing out for the afternoon. Tonight we`ll see another shortwave bringing cloud cover and potentially some sprinkles or light showers. Confidence was not high enough to add to the forecast as showers would be shallow and elevated if they developed with little to no precipitation making it to the surface. The best chance would be north of M-20. Cooler temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures Thursday night will bring another chance for frost/freeze conditions for portions of north central Michigan. While the forecast is currently dry for Friday. Warm air advection with support of convergence with the low level jet could spark off showers for Friday evening. There is an increase in members with measurable precipitation Friday evening, therefore would expect NBM PoPs to increase with the next run. - Increasing Chances for Rain Sunday into Next Week We`ll need to keep an eye on the tropical feature in the Gulf as it could bring rainfall to the area Sunday depending on the track. Otherwise we`ll see a stronger front move through with better moisture for the beginning of next week. This will bring additional chances for rain along with colder temperatures behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 Low level wind shear will shift east of the area with the 850 mb jet. Ceilings around 8000 feet are shifting east of the area currently with ceilings around 12000 feet moving in from the northwest. These will clear later this morning with mostly clear skies for the rest of today. Northwest winds with gusts around 20 knots are expected today. Cloud cover will increase tonight, but the probability for any rain is low. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 Waves and winds gradually fall below Small Craft Advisory conditions this morning. However this break in the winds will be short lived as gusts pick back up in the 20 to 25 knot range tonight into Thursday for areas north of Holland. Waves will increase into the 3 to 5 foot range for the entire nearshore area. Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed. Lighter winds move in for the first half of Friday, before southerly winds increase with gusts approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions mainly north of Grand Haven. Winds may remain offshore enough to keep wave heights lower. As we head through the weekend wave heights look to build once more at 4 feet or higher for areas north of Holland. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion