309 FXUS63 KGRR 052330 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 630 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing drizzle likely tonight followed by snow showers Friday - Cold with lake effect snow along the lakeshore this weekend - Moderating temperatures early next week with precipitation possible Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026 - Freezing drizzle likely tonight followed by snow showers Friday Light snow is ongoing across West Michigan this afternoon driven by warm air advection and an associated upper-level PV maxima. Low- level water vapor imagery shows a mid-level dry slot across Wisconsin set to reach West Michigan late this afternoon into this evening. This will dry out the DGZ, with it not resaturating until after 06z Friday. With ample low-level moisture, any forcing will allow for a period of freezing drizzle/mist across the area. Greatest confidence is the northwest half of our forecast area (Allegan to Kent to Montcalm counties and north) where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. This is where visibility guidance such as the NBM, LAMP, and MAV guidance places the best signal along with BUFKIT cross sections showing the best low-level forcing. Less of a signal for low- level forcing exists in BUFKIT overviews south and east of the current advisory so will let subsequent shifts pull the trigger on an expansion if confidence increases. Deep moisture returns with a second mid-level wave resulting in a change back over to snow as the DGZ resaturates. With the wave giving us a glancing blow from the west, additional light snow is expected Friday morning. An arctic front then crosses through the area during the day Friday. This could bring snow squall-like showers as weak destabilization occurs along the front, though SBCAPE < 40 J/kg is on the weak side. Expect 2-4" of snow in the advisory area, and 1-3" across the rest of West Michigan. Post frontal cold air advection will drive gusty winds across the area in the 30-40 mph range. - Cold with lake effect snow along the lakeshore this weekend The arctic front brings in a much colder airmass Friday into Saturday as 850mb temps crash to near -20C. This will bring lows to near zero by Saturday morning with wind chills possibly below zero. This cold will generate at least some lake effect snow showers, however conditions are not favorable for significant accumulations due to a multitude of factors. We are not in our favorable cyclonic flow pattern, low-level moisture is marginal, and there is little synoptic support to lift inversion heights. The flow pattern goes predominantly northerly this weekend, which will keep lake effect snow showers mainly near the lakeshore. The arrival of surface and upper-level ridging, and marginal to poor moisture, may actually result in periods of sunshine inland over the weekend. - Moderating temperatures with precipitation possible Wednesday The arrival of upper-level ridging from the west and associated southerly flow will lead to temperatures moderating into early next week. 850mb temps likely climb above zero by Tuesday translating to surface temps topping out near forty. This will be in conjunction with a shift from out continental arctic airmass this weekend to maritime polar which is generally warmer as we tap into Pacific air. There are some signals for a system that could bring a wintry mix sometime Wednesday into Thursday. However, cluster analysis suggests there is still notable uncertainty as to when troughing displaces the ridge, and by extension sends this system into the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 621 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026 Light snow is falling across southwest Lower as seen on radar. However, spotter reports of light fzdz have been reported east of MKG. This was also noted on radar and expected as models have been showing the dgz becoming unsaturated this evening. Freezing drizzle will move across the terminals this evening and portions of the overnight at which time another short wave will move across southern Lake MI and result in more dgz saturation which will result in more light snow. The light snow will continue into the afternoon before diminishing late in the period. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ037>039- 043>045-050-051-056-057-064. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion