342 FXUS63 KGRR 291915 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 315 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday Morning - Several rounds of storms possible Tuesday into Tuesday night - Another chance for showers late in the week into Easter && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026 - Showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday Morning Dry air today will give way to moisture advection tomorrow. The zonal flow will shift late Monday into Tuesday. The forecast remains fairly on track with a low level jet fueling storms Monday night into Tuesday morning. The Upper level flow is fairly zonal Monday night into Tuesday. However, there remains a ribbon of moisture along with a short have trough that, coupled with the LLJ, should allow for elevated convection overnight into Tuesday morning. Latest soundings do show around 700 J/kg of CAPE. While not huge, given the strong shear, that could prove to be ample enough. A strong cap remains in place so mixing down winds may prove difficult. As such, large damaging hail remains the primary concern. The timing is interesting as it could arrive around sunrise, which could affect the morning commute. Latest Nadocast, 12Z Sunday, does indicate the potential for large hail through Lower Michigan. There is the potential for brief heavy rainfall with some of these storms. While QPF shouldn`t be to high, this will be the first of several rounds of potentially heavy downpours. - Several rounds of storms possible Tuesday into Tuesday night Depending on if storms from Tuesday morning linger or exit quickly will set up the rest of the day. The above mentioned trough will deepen and should bring several more rounds of convection as that deepening trough treks through region bringing another jet through the mid levels in the afternoon and evening timeframe. Tuesday will see larger CAPE values in the afternoon and a potential boundary through the southern lower Michigan. Latest CAMS do show the potential for some low level shear along the boundary so while tornadoes are not expected, can`t rule them out at this time. Given the potential intensity expect the storms to linger into the evening hours. Latest QPF has around an inch through these systems. While heavy downpours are expected to bring more rainfall, not expecting flooding at this time. - Showers late in the week with colder air into Easter The upcoming week is trending to be a more active pattern. Another round of showers will be possible Thursday into Friday with moist southerly flow. Friday should see a break in systems with another system potentially streaming through over the weekend. This could prove to be a wet Easter weekend. The solutions diverge but a strong cold front potentially treks through Saturday night into Sunday. Cold northwesterly flow will move in behind it with 850 temps potentially in the -7C range Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026 An expansive area of broken high clouds was noted on ir imagery early this afternoon and those high clouds will remain through much of the period. Low level flow will begin to strengthen from the southwest aloft overnight resulting in some LLWS and then lower cigs toward morning. VFR conditions are expected to remain in place. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Small Craft Advisory has ended with a lull in winds and waves until Monday night. Monday night winds will increase out ahead of an approaching system. This will result in another chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday night into Wednesday. Winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest behind the front Tuesday before winds become more offshore Wednesday into Thursday. Thunderstorms are expected at times Monday night into Tuesday night. Some could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Based on latest guidance the dewpoints should remain in the 20s this afternoon. So have adjusted the Dewpoints down to reflect that. This also will drop the RH`s into the upper 20s this afternoon. So expecting a drier day today. Winds should remain around 10 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible. Temps should drop off between 6 PM and 8 PM and RH`s should recover through that time to above 30 percent and increase as the evening continues. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ846>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...04 MARINE...Ceru FIRE WEATHER...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion