944 FXUS63 KGRR 271925 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 225 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly greater snow accumulations Saturday afternoon/evening - Rain chances return Tuesday - Wet and warmer Wednesday through Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Slightly greater snow accumulations Saturday afternoon/evening Latest deterministic model guidance indicates total snow accumulations greater than 2 inches north of a Muskegon to Alma line and centered in the US-10 vicinity by Sunday morning. This is a bit of an outlier compared to post-processed ensemble guidance such as NBM version 5 and the 12Z SPC HREF, which both indicate about a 30 to 40 percent chance of exceeding 2 inches in this area. The greatest snowfall rates look to occur in the 8 pm to midnight timeframe Saturday night. The Mount Pleasant to Big Rapids corridor may see the greatest accumulations thanks to favorable placement underneath the expected FGEN band combined with lake enhancement associated with N-NE flow off Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay. Lesser accumulations on the order of an inch or less are expected farther south all the way towards the I-94 corridor according to the aforementioned deterministic guidance. That said, the 12Z HREF does indicate a secondary relative maximum of 1-1.5" around I-94 in the overnight hours. On the heels of these detailed descriptions I will hasten to add that, as noted previously, amounts and location remain rather uncertain given questions about moisture, microphysics, and FGEN band placement. However, the consistent theme has been that this looks like an non-impactful event given expected amounts and timing of snow. - Rain chances return Tuesday As noted before, we are looking at moderating temperatures through the week. However, one change is that we now see a northern stream upper PV max approaching the western Great Lakes Tuesday and crossing Tuesday night. This ought to provide a rain/snow mix Tuesday and Tuesday night north of a stationary front where PV forcing will be coupled with lower tropospheric isentropic lift. - Wet and warmer Wednesday through Friday Model guidance continues to forecast a wet and unsettled pattern, especially in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. ECMWF ensemble guidance shows about a 10-20 percent chance of seeing freezing rain during this time, which is a distinct possibility given that cold/dry advecting east-northeast low level flow may be present. This will have to be watched. By the time we get to Friday, chances for mixed precipitation are reduced, but chances for thunder and significant rainfall both increase. Predictability remains very limited this far out, but there does appear some probability (10-20 percent) exists for having rainfall that could produce at least some minor flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cold front will move across the terminals this evening. Ahead of it, a strong southwest flow will create a few hours of LLWS. Gusty surface wind behind the cold front will diminish after 06z. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion