195 FXUS63 KGRR 231135 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 635 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake Effect Snow Showers Continue Today - Bitterly Cold Temperatures through Saturday - Cold and Snowy Weather Continues Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 - Lake Effect Snow Showers Continue Today A mosaic of local radars indicates multiple, surprising well organized, generally west to east oriented LES bands traversing most if not all of southern Lower MI. The bands are drifting southward and one of them is about to intersect the I-94 corridor during what fortunately should be a relative minimum in travel volume. Conditions in general under the bands are quite harrowing due to large concentrations of small crystal sizes that are very effective at reducing visibilities. Add to that the stronger winds working down to the surface in the vicinity of these bands that further reduce visibilities with blowing and drifting snow. At 2 AM, based on surface observations and the radar mosaic, the leading edge of the truly arctic air extended roughly along a La Crosse to Milwaukee to Grand Rapids to Alma line. LES was far less organized north of this boundary due to the increasing directional shear associated with enhanced low level cold advection (that is, backing flow with respect to height). This boundary will push south through the rest of the forecast area early this morning; the current organized LES bands will similarly be pushed out of the area. This transition will help alleviate to travel threats a little bit as we get closer to the morning commute, but blowing and drifting snow will remain a concern, along with rapid changes in visibility. After coordination with APX, have decided to extend the current winter weather advisory to 00Z since visibilities will continue to be an issue with the extremely small snow crystal sizes expected with this microphysics setup. - Bitterly Cold Temperatures through Saturday No changes to the current cold-related headlines are planned. The EC ensemble has been amazingly consistent from run to run with a forecast mean minimum temperature around minus 20 degrees F for Grand Rapids Saturday morning. Our "official" deterministic forecasts are running a smidge warmer than that (for example minus 12 is advertised at Grand Rapids for a low Saturday morning). This is because the deterministic forecast is really an amalgamation of different numerical guidance sources, including the GFS ensemble, Canadian Ensemble, and others that are not as aggressive as the EC Ensemble. The HREF, which will be increasingly weighted in the forecast as we approach Saturday morning, gives a greater than 60 percent chance of apparent temperatures at or below minus 20F, so the EC Ensemble has some company with its forecast. Please refer to the latest NPWGRR products for more information about this dangerous cold. - Cold and Snowy Weather Continues Next Week The extended forecast continues the theme of unseasonably cold and active weather. Models have been consistent with developing a Gulf Low that will track towards the northeast United States in the Sunday/Sunday night timeframe; this gives us a shot of synoptic snow followed by some LES, yielding roughly 2 to 4 inches south of I-96. It will be interesting to see if the low track trends towards the northwest in subsequent model runs, which would boost snow amounts. Models then latch onto a Clipper system that could give decent lake enhanced snow Monday night. Yet another Clipper could be lined up for Tuesday night. Snow might be less of a theme after Wednesday; however, we will likely remain in cold, deep cyclonic flow during the entire week so any day is game for at least some additional accumulations somewhere. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 As noted previously, the focus for lake effect snow will be more confined to the lakeshore today as winds turn to more of a northwest direction. MKG will be in IFR and even occasional LIFR visibility restrictions much of today due to the falling and blowing of very fine grain snowflakes associated with the bitter cold. The AZO terminal will also be affected but not as much given that this location will be near the eastern edge of the lake effect region. Blowing snow will be able to achieve MVFR and even temporary IFR visibility restrictions at all of the remaining terminals, chiefly this morning. Wind gusts should not be quite as strong by the time we get into the afternoon. For tonight, there is a good chance that all terminals, with the probable exception of MKG, will experience VFR conditions for the first time in a long time with light winds and mostly clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 No changes planned to the current headlines. Gale and heavy freezing spray conditions will continue much of today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Bitterly cold temperatures will continue to increase the ice forming on our rivers. Thankfully, most of our typical trouble spots for ice jams are already mostly or completely frozen over. However, river ice is notoriously unpredictable, and the rarity of this upcoming cold snap will likely create some minor ice jam issues in places that don`t typically have to deal with river ice. For example, the last time it was this cold (2019) the Muskegon River had some ice jam issues at both Bridgeton and Newaygo, and there are already some signs that something similar could be happening again this year. The bottom line is that when we expect very unusual cold conditions, it`s not unreasonable to expect some very unusual river ice issues somewhere. Water levels around ice jams can go up/down much faster than usual, so anyone living near a river should pay extra attention to water levels over the next few days and have a plan to respond if conditions change quickly. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 425 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Forecast low temperatures on 1/24 and associated records: GRR -17 (record -19 in 1948) LAN -13 (record -22 in 1884) MKG -6 (record -5 in 1970) BIV -10 (record -12 in 1948) AZO -13 (record -13 in 1963) BTL -15 (record -13 in 1948) Forecast high temperatures on 1/24 and associated record coldest highs: GRR 8 (record 6 in 1904) LAN 8 (record 5 in 1963) MKG 11 (record 7 in 1897) BIV 9 (record 11 1987) AZO 8 (record 5 in 1963) BTL 8 (record 4 in 1963) Some computer model guidance (ie. ECE/ECMWF/HRRR) supports pockets of -20 or colder on Saturday. If that occurs, it would be the first time since January 1994 that those temperatures would be recorded in this region. The following temperatures are the coldest ever recorded at our long term climate sites: GRR -24 (2/13/1899 and 2/14/1899) LAN -37 (2/2/1868) MKG -30 (2/11/1899) BIV -24 (2/1/1918) AZO -22 (2/5/1918 and 2/10/1912) BTL -24 (2/12/1899) && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ037- 038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059. Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ064>067- 071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...TJT MARINE...TJT HYDROLOGY...AMD CLIMATE...Hoving

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion