421
FXUS63 KGRR 140757
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
257 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet Weather into Tuesday then Potential Storminess
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
- Quiet Weather into Tuesday then Potential Storminess
Quiet weather pattern continues through the weekend as a southern
stream low tracks south of Lower Michigan. The northern stream
remains separate with a clipper low passing north of Lower
Michigan on Monday. Milder temperatures continue as the polar jet
remains to the north until later next week.
The next chance for precipitation is late Tuesday into Wednesday
in an area of warm advection and isentropic ascent with enough
moisture to bring a chance of rain or mixed precip with the
highest chances across the northern forecast area. Thermal
profiles of model forecast soundings show potential for freezing
rain across the northern forecast areas, where there have been
freezing rain episodes during previous periods of milder
temperatures this winter.
A second wave of low pressure late in the week could also bring
rain/mixed precipitation which should change to snow by late
Friday as cold air filters in on the back side of the low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
The potential of some fog tonight is our main focus with the 06z
forecasts. KMKG has already seen a few brief periods of MVFR fog
over the last couple of hours. They will have the best chance of
impactful fog, likely into IFR category. This is because they have
the lightest winds there, and cross-over temperatures for fog are
more likely to be met. The threat will taper off as you head to
the SE, due to better winds holding up.
Once the fog burns off in the morning hours, lots of VFR expected
through the day. Winds will generally remain under 10 knots. It is
looking like fog will be more likely everywhere right at the end
of this forecast period with higher moisture and less wind
expected.
No concerns for the GRR forecast.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion