654
FXUS63 KGRR 050423
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1123 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of
Severe Storms Friday Night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
- Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of
Severe Storms Friday Night
After a stretch of quiet weather this week, the Great Lakes
region will have a series of shortwave troughs coming through
over the next week. The pattern will feature mild Pacific air
streams in southwest flow into early next week before the polar
jet dips south again by late next week.
Moisture advects north this evening with showers spreading across
the forecast area from the south overnight as a weakening
shortwave trough moves through. Model soundings indicate freezing
precip will not be an issue even across the higher elevations of
Osceola and Clare Counties as the column would wet bulb above 0C
at the surface by the time precip reaches that area around or
after 12Z Thursday.
A more significant trough ejects out of the western CONUS by the
Friday with rain expected ahead and along a slow moving
baroclinic zone from late Friday through Saturday and could bring
a weakening line of convection. Current indications are for
chance probabilities (30 to 40 percent) for elevated convection
with a warm front feature Friday evening and a similar chance of
convection after midnight ahead of the cold front. Severe threat
may be limited by the expected late night/early morning passage
of the storms and possible disruption of northward advection of
deep moisture by strong convection to the southwest of Lower
Michigan.
Quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend with an active pattern
continuing into next week. Confidence is still rather low with
the details but a strong shortwave trough moves through in the
Tuesday to with the potential for cold air and some snow returning
after mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
A warm front is slowly moving north across northern IN and low
level moisture has steadily increased across the region. We`ll see
cigs fall below 1k ft overnight as light showers develop; heavier
rain will remain south of the terminals. IFR conditions are
expected to remain in place through the period.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion