869
FXUS63 KGRR 312346
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
746 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe chances through this evening
- Light freezing rain possible early Thursday
- Additional storm chances Thursday and Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
- Severe chances through this evening
Still keeping an eye on a line of storms just working into the
northern part of the county warning area this afternoon. This
line will slowly work south and east over the next few hours.
Winds and hail continue to be the main threats for this afternoon
and evening - with the threat being mostly over by 8-9pm or so for
west Michigan.
- Light freezing rain possible early Thursday
Big weather maker works through the western Great Lakes Region
late Wednesday with southern lower Michigan remaining mainly in
the warm sector Wednesday night into Thursday. Recent model trends
have been pulling this low track a little further to the northwest
with the colder air having a harder time getting into central
Michigan. This would keep the greatest impacts in Wisconsin and
the Upper Peninsula with an overall decreasing trend in potential
for freezing rain in the CWA compared to yesterday. Some light ice
accumulation may still occur in our far northern counties...especially
the slightly higher terrain in Osceola and Clare Counties and
maybe even eastern Lake County...so that will have to be watched
for a potential winter weather advisory for late Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Would expect brief impacts mainly between 4am
and 11am Thursday if ice materializes before temperatures warm
through the day.
- Additional storm chances Thursday and Saturday
Active pattern continues into the weekend - with additional
chances for storms Thursday and Saturday. Some severe weather
possibilities exist for both days with Saturday starting to look
like a potentially greater risk than late Thursday.
Storms aside - there will be a decent amount of rain this week
between today and Saturday. This should result in some rises on
area rivers and potentially some minor flooding in trouble spots
late this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
The boundary has shifted south so the thunderstorm threat has all
but ended. There is a slight chance that a weak line moving
eastward from the Lake could cause a brief storm. So for that,
have left a Prob30 in AZO for the next few hours. Otherwise, the
plethora of moisture has allowed for reductions in vsbys and low
cigs across the region. GRR, MKG BTL and LAN all have periods of
IFR. That will continue through most of the evening. The northerly
flow will bring some colder, drier air so there is a chance that
cigs increase to above 1KFT. However, the drop in winds around
06Z could allow these cigs to cool and condense with IFR between
09Z and 14Z. CIGS will improve mid to late tomorrow morning,
improving to MVFR between 14Z and 18Z and then to VFR afterward.
There is still some evidence that the LLJ is aloft so have left
LLWS for the next few hours as the southern TAF sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected much of
this week. The current SCA goes through 12Z Wednesday. There will
be a possible lull on Wednesday. Winds and waves will pick up
again Wednesday night and persist into the weekend,
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Maczko
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion