771 FXUS63 KGRR 191239 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 739 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning fog in portions of Central and South-Central Michigan - Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms today into tonight - Breezy Friday with snow showers into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 - Morning fog in portions of Central and South-Central Michigan Dense fog or freezing fog has settled over Central Michigan near and north of Alma to Big Rapids. Dense fog from Southeast Michigan has crept into eastern and central Ingham and Jackson counties per satellite and MDOT cameras. Some further westward advancement in Ingham and Jackson is possible but not certain. May have to join DTX in extending the advisory later in the morning. Some guidance sources erode the fog after daybreak with increasing surface winds but other guidance holds onto it until midday, particularly in Central Michigan. Fog may also return to Central Mich for a portion of tonight. - Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms today into tonight Early morning showers and thunderstorms have developed in northern Indiana, earlier than most of tonight`s models have suggested, where south winds around 850 mb are advecting moist air underneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This complex may skirt Jackson on its way to Southeast Michigan this morning, but confidence is fairly low in its evolution and impact. Several runs of the HRRR, which have been relatively aggressive in bringing just enough instability for a chance of thunderstorms into south-central Michigan this morning, suggest gusty southeast winds could emanate northwest of the precip complex. Mid-latitude cyclone out of Kansas today is expected to deepen as it tracks to West Michigan by Friday morning. Out ahead of it will be another mild day for much of the area, followed by modest midlevel instability to support showers and a slight chance of thunder from this evening into tonight. - Breezy Friday with snow showers into the weekend Cold air advection will be more pronounced on the south side of the low-pressure system`s track Friday, with strong wind gusts over 40- 50 mph possible in southern Michigan depending on the low`s eventual depth. Rain showers will also change to wet snow during the day. The broader synoptic pattern turns more favorable for lake-effect snow showers over the weekend with deeper troughing and cyclonic flow with colder 850 mb air flowing in. Can`t count out some limited to minor winter weather impacts on roads. Temperatures will be close to normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 739 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 IFR ceilings and/or visibility affecting mainly JXN, east of LAN, and AMN-MOP should linger for several more hours this morning. Fog is less of a factor compared to overnight now that surface wind speeds are increasing. Thunderstorms over South Bend (SBN) will have to be monitored for TS amendments at AZO, BTL, and JXN over the next few hours. The storms are on the northern fringe of instability brought on by moist air around 5,000 feet moving northeastward. Morning hazards aside, a period of VFR is favored this afternoon, but conditions should deteriorate to MVFR then IFR again between 21 and 06 Z as a low pressure system approaches with rain showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion