754 FXUS63 KGRR 281957 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers with significant winds and blowing snow tonight-Mon - Additional chances for snow showers Tue and Wed and colder - Moderating temperatures and mostly quiet late week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 - Snow showers with significant winds and blowing snow tonight-Mon The latest suite of data continues to justify well the headlines that were issued earlier. We remain in the warm air advection precipitation ahead of the sfc low that is just SW of Chicago at 2 pm EST/19z. So far, lightning has been been observed as far north as I-94. The best chance of lightning looks to be over the next few hours, before the elevated instability moves out by mid evening as the sfc low moves NE of the area. We see the rainfall diminish quite a bit this evening as the dry slot moves over much of the area as the entire system occludes. A few showers will remain, but the heavier rain will be done. Then we will see precipitation rates pick up with the approach of the wrap around cold conveyor that slams in across the area just prior to daybreak. This will change the rain to snow, and bring some light accumulations to the entire area. Temperatures fall, but the coldest of the air is delayed getting in here by the lake, and the trowal. By the time the lake effect gets going just prior to daybreak, the mean low level flow will be mainly from the NW, favoring the NW and SW corners of the area. Combine decent lake effect snows, and the winds gusting up to 60 mph along the immediate lakeshore, and 50-55 just inland, this will create some dangerous traveling conditions on Monday with blowing and drifting snow. As you move further inland, the snow showers will not be as widespread, and the winds a tad lighter. Impacts are still expected, especially for the Advisory areas. By the time you get to the Mt. Pleasant to Lansing corridor, not much additional snow will be accumulating, and the winds will be a bigger impact, with just some blowing and drifting expected. The lake effect will wind down quickly then Monday night, as will the winds. The upper wave supporting this moves out, and the jet core and deep cold air lifts NE of the area by Monday evening. This will allow conditions to improve steadily late Monday and Monday night. - Additional chances for snow showers Tue and Wed and colder We see a short break in the better lake effect Monday night and Tuesday morning, before an uptick in snowfall is expected to happen Tuesday afternoon. We will be in the flow from the NW once again, like much of December was prior to the recent mild weather. We will see a short wave drop in by Tuesday afternoon. This system does not have a lot of moisture with it. However, the flow from the WSW and remaining colder air will allow the lake to enhance the snow a bit for the WSW favored areas into Tuesday night. Another break in the activity occurs early Wednesday, before yet another short wave dives in from the WNW. That short wave looks to dive a little further south, and the low level mean flow will be from the NNW. It seems that the southern portion of the forecast area will see the better chance for snow showers then. Temperatures will drop even more behind this system, with highs likely staying in the teens on New Years Day. - Moderating temperatures and mostly quiet late week What we see happen the remainder of the week is heights will build a bit, and likely keep most of the short wave activity north of the area. This occurs as the large amplitude upper ridge builds to the east a bit. We do not see the entire ridge move in, but enough to push the northern branch of the upper jet far enough north away from the area. Precipitation chances look rather low to start the new year with this pattern taking shape. Temperatures also will recover a bit once the cold air on New Years Day has a chance to moderate with the higher heights building in. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 A dynamic weather event is unfolding across the region. Lightning was noted across northern IN moving slowing north into southern Lower. We`ve included a VCTS after 19z until 22-23z. Elsewhere IFR/LIFR cigs vsbys will be widespread in rain/fog. A strong cold front moves through this evening. Temperatures will fall and winds will increase from the WNW. Lake effect snow will also develop creating blowing/drifting with largest accumulations closer to the lake shore. IFR vsbys in SN/BLSN will be common overnight into Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 Storm Warnings remain out for the lake for tonight into Monday, and latest model trends continue to show corresponding wind speeds/ frequent gusts 50+ knots are expected on the backside of the system in the cold air advection and strong pressure gradient. The peak winds are expected Monday morning and early afternoon, before gradually diminishing. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 We are watching the trends on the area rivers with this period of rain coming through. At this time, we are expecting a couple of points (Holt on Sycamore Creek and Vicksburg on Portage River) to approach Minor Flood levels, but likely to stay just below. Runoff is likely to freeze up later tonight as temperatures drop below freezing, and then levels will gradually stabilize after that. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ037-038- 043-044-050-056-064-071-072. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ039- 040-045-051-057-058-065-066-073. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ046-052-059- 067-074. MARINE...Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...04 MARINE...NJJ HYDROLOGY...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion