315 FXUS63 KGRR 191959 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 259 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain tonight - Rain changing to snow on Friday - Strong winds from I-96 to the south on Friday - Turning colder with lake effect snow over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 - Periods of rain tonight Low pressure will lift northeast from near Kansas City this afternoon to Southeast Wisconsin by 12z on Friday. An occluded front will lift into the area tonight. Periods of rain are expected tonight with the most concentrated occurring overnight just ahead of the front. 850mb moisture transport and PWAT values spike in the overnight time frame. There is a small chance for thunderstorms, but as we work through the night instability that was already low drops off even further. At this point given very low probabilities have left thunder out of the forecast. Most areas will see rainfall amounts of a half inch or less, but a few locations over Central Lower Michigan could exceed a half inch. These totals should not affect river levels much. - Rain changing to snow on Friday The low will lift into Northern Lower Michigan on Friday with a depth in the mid 990s mb. The low peaks around 990mb in the morning over Northern Lower Michigan. Cold air will pour into the area from the west on Friday on the south side of the low and some snow will mix in with the rain in the midday hours, before a rain/snow mix becomes more dominant in the afternoon. At this point not expecting much in the way of accumulation in most areas, but a dusting to perhaps an inch may occur. There is some indication for a localized 1-3 inches downwind of Lake Michigan centered on Ottawa and Allegan Counties. This could be related to some wind convergence (both speed and directional) on the south side of the low, but not playing this up for now. Even if this occurred, not expecting big impacts given marginal temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. - Strong winds from I-96 to the south on Friday We have issued a Wind Advisory for much of Southern Lower Michigan (from the I-96 row of counties to the south), including Holland, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo and Jackson. BUFKIT overviews from both the NAM and the GFS show 45 mph in the mixed layer on Friday in these areas. The wind will ramp up through the course of the morning and peak in the afternoon in most areas. - Turning colder with lake effect snow over the weekend Colder air filter into the region over the weekend and into early next week in northwest flow. Sunday into Monday we should have delta T`s in the middle teens C which will result in some light lake effect snow over Western Lower Michigan. The flow transitions to northerly fairly quick with RH levels forecast to drop, so not expecting any big accumulations. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 A line of showers continues to move through southeast Michigan this afternoon. This has brought MVFR vsbys to LAN and JXN. As this is convective expect them to move off by 19Z. Have adjusted the timing in the TAF`s for tonight`s incoming precipitation. Band of showers should move through after 00Z. Have MVFR cigs beginning around 01Z with further reductions around 03Z. Showers with MVFR cigs and vsbys are likely between 03Z to around 10Z. There could be periods of IFR cigs and vsbys through that timeframe. Expect some improving conditions around sunrise with IFR cigs settling in late in the TAF period. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EST Friday for MIZ056>059- 064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion