307 FXUS63 KGRR 181202 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 702 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Central Michigan Freezing Rain into Wednesday Morning - Showers into Wednesday Morning, Thunderstorms Possible - Another Round of Showers and Thunderstorms Thursday - Rain Transitioning to Snow Friday, Becoming Colder && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 - Central Michigan Freezing Rain into Wednesday Morning Temperatures are currently around freezing in Clare and northern portions of Isabella County. We`ll need to monitor how temperatures trend overnight to see if the Advisory needs to be expanded. Guidance varies with CAMs running colder, especially early on in the forecast. This is resulting in higher ice amounts with the HREF, but current observation trends would suggest temperatures being a few degrees warmer. This will limit ice accumulations especially with warm ground temperatures. Ice accumulations would likely be limited to elevated surfaces like bridges, trees, power lines, etc. At this time will keep headlines in Clare and Osceola counties going with the best chance (50 percent) for a tenth of an inch or more in Clare County. Portions of Isabella and Mecosta could see a light glaze before sunrise but impacts will be limited due to the lower amounts and warm ground temperatures. - Showers into Wednesday Morning, Thunderstorms Possible Elsewhere overnight into Wednesday morning showers continue to move in. The left exit region of the upper level jet will provide upper level divergence over the area as positive vorticity advection and warm air advection continue to provide lift for the ongoing showers. The 850mb low level jet will also be in play along with strong low level frontogenesis providing an additional boost of lift with the front as it moves through Wednesday morning. Along the front thunderstorms will be possible with 100-300 J/kg of MUCAPE available between 6 to 11AM this morning from west to east. Drier conditions along with breezy westerly winds move in behind the front with gusts up to 35 mph possible. High temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s across much of the area with the exception of Isabella, Mecosta, Clare, and Osceola counties which will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. There is a chance that a few locations could hit daily record high temperatures today. - Another Round of Showers and Thunderstorms Thursday We`ll be locked into the west to southwest flow which will continue to feed moisture into the area along with warm air advection and positive vorticity advection for Thursday. Showers are possible (20 to 30 percent chance) as early as Thursday morning, but become more likely (60 to 80 percent) by Thursday evening with the potential for some thunderstorms. Temperatures once more are expected to be in the 40s and 50s. - Rain Transitioning to Snow Friday, Becoming Colder A low pressure system is expected to track through the area Friday bringing more rain with a transition to snow. There are slight differences in the low pressure track within the different model clusters. This is impacting temperature profiles and how quickly the colder air moves in and transitions rain to snow. Looking at sounding profiles moisture does not get deep into the dendritic growth zone and temperatures will be largely above freezing during the day which will lower snow liquid ratios and limit accumulations. Drier conditions move in for Saturday but highs will only be in the 30s over the weekend. Another round of light snow is possible Saturday night into Sunday as another trough swings through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 702 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 Poor aviation conditions are in place to begin the 12z to 12z TAF period. The worst of the conditions in the 24 hour TAF window is very much front loaded, occurring in the first 6 hours of the forecast. A warm front is lifting into Southwest Lower Michigan at this time and that is resulting in widespread IFR and MVFR conditions. A downturn into more IFR conditions is expected in the 12z to 15z window (due to both rain showers and low ceilings) and then a fairly rapid progression to VFR will commence between 15z and 18z. VFR weather is then expected the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. Winds will veer today from southeast this morning to southwest this afternoon associated with the low moving into the Northern Great Lakes. There is the potential for a rumble or two of thunder this morning, but feel the chance is too remote to include in any one TAF. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ039- 040. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion