351 FXUS63 KGRR 221152 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 652 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow Showers Today into Monday Morning - Light Snow Tuesday into Wednesday - Additional Snow Possible Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Snow Showers Today into Monday Morning Mid level WV imagery overnight nicely shows a 500mb low moving across Lower MI. This feature moves east throughout the day which will help get deep NW flow going over the Great Lakes and also get the lake aggregate surface low over Lake Huron to start drifting southeast finally. Deep moisture will be in place per Nam/RAP Bufkit soundings with depth over 20k ft at times, longest-lasting along the lakeshore into tonight. That said, low level and DGZ omegas look modest for the most part and fairly spread out over the region through early afternoon before focusing along the lakeshore this evening into tonight. More substantial lift looks to set up near and south of South Haven tonight and especially toward Benton Harbor. Most areas should see snow showers throughout the day with additional snow amounts generally 0.5"-2.0" outside of the Advisory and 2"-4" (locally higher) within the Advisory. Factor in wind gusts of 25-35 mph and there will be some travel impacts at times with slick roads and reduced speeds. 00z model guidance supports the vast majority of the region staying near or below freezing today. - Light Snow Tuesday into Wednesday ECMWF/GEM/GFS guidance coming in overnight continues to support a clipper system impacting Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday with light snow accumulations likely. Heavy amounts are not expected given the quick hitting nature of the system, generally 1"-2" especially near and north of I-96 with some 3" amounts possible closer to US 10. However, it is noted that the ECMWF and GEM are coming in with much colder 850mb temps throughout Wednesday compared to prior runs, cold enough to support a period of lake effect snow showers on the back side of this clipper Wednesday morning into the afternoon provided enough low level moisture remains in place. Thus some light additional accumulations are possible but not certain yet. Highs Wednesday may occur early on (low/mid 30s at best) with temps falling during the day into the 20s most likely. - Additional Snow Possible Thursday ECE/GEFS guidance is in good agreement for Thursday with mean 500mb heights/vorticity indicative of a shortwave trough swinging through the region. Both ensemble suites show 80-100% probabilities for 850mb temps to stay at or below 0C across our region, with relatively high probabilities for temps to stay near or below 32 during the day. A big question mark is surface low development near the region, and if so how far north does it get. Some ensemble guidance keeps us dry with no surface low, but both the ECE/GEFS ensemble suites indicate a 30-40% probability for 3" or more and a 10-20% probability for 6" or more. There is certainly some bust potential with Thursday`s forecast given the high degree of ensemble spread. The main point here is that there is a fairly high ceiling to the snow amounts within the ensemble guidance (ie. 90th percentile snow amounts are 5"-8"), so while current odds don`t yet favor an impactful snow event the trends will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 652 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Snow showers are expected to impact all terminals today, though intensity should remain light for the most part. IFR should periodically be observed due to the snow reducing visibilities to 2sm or less. As NW winds increase today there may be BLSN to contend with especially at MKG. Depending on snow intensity trends we may have to go more pessimistic with visibility at KMKG especially after 16z. By 00z, much of the snow shower activity will migrate toward the lakeshore and it`s possible that the remaining lake effect snow will push offshore MKG. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MIZ037-043-064- 071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion