848 FXUS63 KGRR 041738 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1238 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - More abnormal warmth today, with showers through late afternoon - Cooler, more light rain Thursday and Friday - More seasonable temperatures this weekend onward && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 - More abnormal warmth today, with showers through late afternoon After a record-setting warm day yesterday, abnormally warm temperatures are expected again today as robust southerly flow persists ahead of an advancing occluded front. While much more widespread cloud cover and precipitation (more on that below) will shave about 5 degrees off of yesterday`s highs, and likewise make record high temperatures a little bit more difficult to achieve, it will nonetheless be around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. On the other end of the spectrum, while temperatures early this morning are exceptionally warm for this time of day at this time of year (mid to upper 60s), record warm minimum temperatures are not expected to be in danger as we do expect cooling this evening behind the passing occluded front. This should result in a "midnight low" temperature at most locations, rather than the typical early morning low temperature timing. Meanwhile, on-and-off light rain and a few convective showers remain in the forecast for today, and we`ve already seen a few of these showers scrape the lakeshore early this morning. This initial light rain appears to be driven largely by warm advection and isentropic ascent, and high resolution model guidance continues to project an enhanced period of mainly stratiform rain spreading into most of the area for a few hours shortly after sunrise this morning. What is less certain is how precipitation will evolve following this initial round of light rain, as there will likely be a bit of a lull and at least a brief window for modest destabilization and scattered convection from early to mid afternoon. MLCAPE projections are meager (100-250 J/kg) and concentrated within a shallow layer, but there is enough there to support a few stronger showers capable of an occasional lightning strike or 30-40mph wind gust, particularly along the advancing occluded front. By late afternoon/early evening (5-7 pm), these showers and the aforementioned front will move east of the area, and put a (temporary) end to precipitation. - Cooler, more light rain Thursday and Friday By Thursday, while low level flow will still be out of the southwest, modest cold air advection should bring temperatures down about 10-15 degrees from today, which is still slightly above average but much more seasonally appropriate. Meanwhile, the remnants of the occluded low will be driven southeast by a more robust surge of cooler air, and the associated cold front will sweep through the area overnight and Friday morning. The key takeaway for our area throughout all of this is that we will likely see an extended period of light showers beginning in northern areas during the day Thursday, spreading southeast into the remainder of the lower peninsula Friday behind the cold front. Some lake-enhanced showers remain possible behind the front as well, but due to the northerly fetch, most of this lake enhancement will remain over the open waters and along the immediate lakeshore. In any case, rain amounts throughout this are expected to be very light. Finally, this should bring high temperatures to their lowest point of the next week, with highs dipping into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. - More seasonable temperatures this weekend onward Behind Friday`s cold front, much more typical temperatures can be expected over the weekend, as ensemble guidance has trended slightly cooler with regard to the post-frontal airmass. In fact, we may see a localized freeze in many areas Saturday and Sunday mornings, with best chances for a more solid freeze (below 30 degrees) north of the M-20 corridor. High temperatures are also expected to remain near seasonal averages over the weekend (low to mid 50s). Meanwhile, precipitation chances remain low over the weekend (and beyond), but there remains a slight chance (20%) for some spotty lake-effect rain showers Sunday as a weak shortwave and reinforcing shot of cool air move through the area. In the extended period (Monday onward), a slight moderating trend in temperatures appears likely, with minimal chances for additional precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 Generally went more pessimistic with ceilings for the next 24 hours, keeping them around 1,500 feet much of the time. There may be times when ceilings dip to IFR below 1,000 feet or climb above 2,000. Rain showers this afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front are bringing visibility to temporary IFR also. There is less than a 30 percent chance of a thunderstorm over the next several hours, though some showers could become moderate to briefly heavy with convective tops to 15,000 feet which is presently about -10 C. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 Daily record maximum temperatures for November 4 (and the most recent occurrence) are as follows: Grand Rapids (GRR): 75 degrees (2015) Lansing (LAN): 76 degrees (2015) Kalamazoo (AZO): 77 degrees (1987) Muskegon (MKG): 71 degrees (2022) Battle Creek (BTL): 75 degrees (2015) Holland (BIV): 73 degrees (2020) && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ844>846. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ847>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRC AVIATION...CAS CLIMATE...BRC

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion