696 FXUS63 KGRR 091110 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 710 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain possible tonight - Isaias could bring some showers Sunday - Pattern change with Cold front Monday into Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 - Light rain possible tonight A negatively tilted mid level ridge will by driving to the east by an approaching upper level system moving through western Canada. This will bring some warm air advection into Michigan late today through Saturday. Given that warm air advection, there could be enough moisture and lift to bring some light rain this evening. The warm air advection will send Max Temps between 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the weekend and into Monday. While clear skies during the evening will lead to some crisp mornings, Saturday could see temps in the mid to upper 70s. If skies clear there is a chance to reach 80. - Isaias could bring some showers Sunday The next chance for any appreciable rain will be from the remnants of Isaias Sunday. While its not to prophetical to say, the best chance for rain on Sunday will be through the eastern half of the state. Models are fairly consistent, though it has trended eastward, and the track with NHC having it moving through KY as a depression Sunday. Expect increase clouds with showers along and east of the US 127 corridor. The ridge of high pressure to its west, correlated with deepening low over the west coast will keep Isaias from shifting to the west. The warm air will continue to dominate the area through Monday with highs continuing in the 70s. - Pattern change with Cold front Monday into Tuesday A cold front is still on track to swing through the area late Monday into Tuesday. While QPF remains spotty, the flow will shift to the northwest and bring temperatures down closer to normal. So enjoy the warmth as Autumn awaits you through the latter half of the upcoming week. That said, lows will only drop into the 40s through much of the region. The next system to keep an eye out for will be previously mentioned low over the west coast. That will trek across the states through the week and is currently trending an arrival time on Thursday. There is quite a bit of difference e on the position of the lows and its orientation. given that confidence is low on when it will arrive and how much QPF will be associated with it when it swings through Michigan. The GEFS does have anomalous PWATS upwards of 1.25 through the lower peninsula Thursday. So there is the potential for widespread rain Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 654 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 VFR cigs and vsbys will continue to dominate through the forecast period. Some bands of clouds should filter from the southwest this evening with a small chance of showers moving onshore from the lake between 00Z and 06Z. While the chances are still low, have kept in a PROB30 group at MKG to account for it. Have added some additional cu for the warm air advection and while MVFR cigs are possible, have kept them VFR for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Light flow will continue through today into tonight with light easterly flow. The gradient will increase tonight into Saturday morning, though it should remain primarily offshore through Saturday morning. There is a chance some gusts get into SCA criteria, but winds and waves will remain flowing offshore. As the warm front passes, the winds should shift to a south flow by midday Saturday. Will hold off on any headlines for now but one will probably be needed Saturday into Sunday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Ceru MARINE...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion