777 FXUS63 KGRR 231722 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1222 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Partly sunny and mild today - Chance of rain Christmas Eve, chance of freezing rain Christmas night and Friday - Chance of rain Saturday, then colder with snow && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 - Partly sunny and mild today Current radar shows light rain showers/drizzle over the eastern cwa moving east. This light precipitation was associated with a warm front that moved through earlier; the trailing cold front will cross the cwa later this morning, but no precipitation is expected. We`re going to see partly sunny skies today as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes. The cold air behind the front is progd to remain well north of the cwa. As a result, we`ll see highs in the lower to mid 40s today...roughly 10 degree above normal. - Chance of rain Wednesday night, chance of freezing rain Christmas night and Friday The next chance of precipitation...light rain...arrives Wednesday night. A weak wave riding the top of the upper ridge will move southeast across northern Indiana and produces a few hundredths of an inch of rain, possibly mixed with light snow toward morning. The real significance of that weak wave is that it helps to pull colder air from Canada behind a weak wave moving across Quebec. What has our attention is the potential for freezing rain Christmas night and Friday. Models are showing another short wave aloft that flattens the ridge and the associated surface low moves from the central Plains across lower Michigan. Depending on how much cold air is in place near the surface will determine the extent of the freezing rain potential. Forecast soundings indicate a warm nose from 700-900 mb with air below freezing at the surface. The northeast cwa is progd with lows in the mid to upper 20s Thursday night; the I-96 corridor has lows 30-31 degrees. This could lead to several hours of light freezing rain mainly north of I-94 and especially north of M-46. Temperatures will warm above freezing Friday, but the northeast cwa may retain temperatures closer to freezing. - Chance of rain Saturday, then colder with snow Another system moves in Saturday as the upper ridge axis drifts across the state. Any precipitation would be rain Saturday but turn to snow Sunday as the cold front moves through and h8 temperatures plummet from +8c Saturday night to -20c Sunday night. Lake effect snow showers will develop Sunday and continue Monday. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 20s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 VFR is forecast for this TAF period with some high clouds over the area today and sustained winds hovering around 10 kts. Some cloud cover could move conditions to MVFR starting in the 09z-12z time frame. A consensus of model guidance keeps conditions above IFR Wednesday morning, though a few individual models try to bring cloud cover just below 1000 ft. Not favoring those solutions at this point with lowering dew points overnight and guidance such as the RAP showing 975mb-925mb RH values not supportive of low clouds. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Hoving

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion