887 FXUS63 KGRR 111126 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 626 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake Effect Snow into the Weekend - Cold Temperatures this Weekend into Monday - Potential Warm Up Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Lake Effect Snow into the Weekend Northwest winds off of Lake Michigan will bring lake effect snow and flurries to the area today. The better bands are to the north with the combined moisture and fetch of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Areas along and north of US-10 have the potential to see the southern ends of these bands today, however accumulations will be light with amounts of an inch or less. Tonight a system will pass largely to the south, but far southwest Michigan could get clipped with snow late tonight into Friday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected. A better shortwave moves through Friday evening into Saturday morning bringing with better low level moisture and a colder air mass over Lake Michigan. The dendritic growth zone will be closer to the surface limiting synoptic lift in this area along with an inversion preventing the moisture profile from becoming deep. Lapse rates will be decent along the lakeshore with computed instability off of the lake temperatures around 300 J/kg. The 25th to 75th percentiles show most of the lakeshore seeing 1 to 3 inches, with a 30 percent chance of seeing 4 inches or more. The better potential for these higher amounts will be in Ottawa Allegan, Kalamazoo, and Van Buren Counties in the south and Ludington County to the north. We`ll have to watch for a slight change in the wind direction as that will impact where those higher probabilities set up. As we continue Saturday afternoon into Sunday the air mass becomes colder with steeper laps rates, but the dendritic growth zone will be at the surface. Shallower moisture and with lift better above the dendritic growth zone will limit amounts. - Cold Temperatures this Weekend into Monday The bulk of our cold arrives Saturday with 925 mb temperatures around -15C resulting in highs in the teens and lows in the single digits with some spots potentially dropping below zero. Wind chills will be in the single digits above and below zero throughout the day Saturday. Temperatures slightly improve Sunday with highs in the low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to low teens. Similar conditions are expected Monday. - Potential Warm Up Next Week Temperatures look to warm after Monday with high temperatures rising above freezing for Wednesday and Thursday. There is a concern with these warmer temperatures as there are a few shortwaves that move through the flow. Depending on timing will impact the precipitation type. If we see any rain, there will be a concern for freezing rain due to the cold ground temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 626 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 MVFR ceilings are spreading inland from the lakeshore. Ceilings may bounce between MVFR and VFR for a few hours this morning. Ceilings are forecast to improve this evening to VFR however there is a chance that MVFR conditions linger overnight. With the clouds flurries and light snow showers will be possible, but little to no accumulation is expected. Northwest winds may gust to 20 knots for a couple hours this morning at GRR, AZO, BTL, and MKG. These stronger gusts will shift east to LAN and JXN this afternoon before winds become light and variable tonight. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion