394 FXUS63 KGRR 141047 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 647 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers linger today across Southern Lower MI - Wet weather mid week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Chances for showers linger today across Southern Lower MI Surface cold front is situated near I-96 at 400am with a slow progression to the south. We expect the front to pass out of the CWA and south of I-94 by mid morning. Some lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through that time. MUCAPE values at this early hour are still around 1,000 j/kg. By 15z MUCAPE values should dip to near zero as the better moisture clears to the south. Showers should end by about midday. The morning will have a fair amount of cloud cover but we will see more sun as the afternoon wears on. Dry conditions are expected from this afternoon through Monday night. - Wet weather mid week On Tuesday a mid level shortwave trough will take aim on the area from the west. This mid level wave will push a cold front into the area at the same time. Surface dew points will increase into the lower 60s, combined with cooling in the mid levels will result in MUCAPE values exceed 1,000 j/kg. A surge in the low level jet on Tuesday to around 40 knots makes severe weather a possibility (wind/hail are most likely). We are in a day 3 marginal from SPC at this point. Upper troughing will linger into Wednesday and Thursday aloft with additional shortwaves working through the flow. At this point it looks like periodic showers and thunderstorms through the Tuesday through Thursday period. Models are still indicating a strong low moving through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. Rainfall amounts during the mid week period will likely approach or slightly exceed 1 inch in many areas. Highs during the work week look to stay in the 70s given cooler temperatures aloft. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 647 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 VFR weather is expected for the next 24 hours. The only real threat to that statement is the chance for some MVFR clouds this morning (mainly down towards KJXN). A cold front is progressing to the south and east of the area and KJXN will be in the closest proximity to the front. Scattered rain showers are expected this morning, but they should become few and farther between as we work through the day. Skies will trend towards clear later this afternoon and especially into tonight. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected today, especially after 15z or so. Speeds of 15 to 25 knots will be common. && .MARINE... Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Will be issuing a Beach Hazards Statement and a Small Craft Advisory from Grand Haven to the south. Northwest winds will pick up today in the wake of a cold front into the 15 to 25 knot range. We expect waves to build to 3 to 5 feet around midday which will continue into the evening hours. North sides of north piers will be the most dangerous places to swim today such as North Beach in South Haven and Holland State Park. Winds and waves will fall to below advisory threshold for tonight and Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this evening for MIZ056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>846. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion