873 FXUS63 KGRR 031855 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 155 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some Snow in Mason and Oceana Counties along the Lakeshore - Next Round of Widespread Snow Thursday into Friday - Cold this Weekend the Moderating Temperatures Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Some Snow in Mason and Oceana Counties along the Lakeshore Overall other than some light flurries most of the area will be dry through Wednesday. Within the north to northeast flow this evening an area of convergence will develop over Lake Michigan creating a narrow band of snow. This band of snow may clip portions of Mason and Oceana counties tonight into Wednesday providing a dusting to an inch of snow through Wednesday afternoon. - Next Round of Widespread Snow Thursday into Friday Warm air advection moves in for Thursday bringing another round of snow during the day along with some additional support from positive vorticity advection with a quick moving shortwave trough. As this lift exits moisture becomes more shallow and we`ll need to monitor for freezing drizzle Thursday night into early Friday morning. Another shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity advection move through Friday morning bringing back the deeper moisture for snowfall through the rest of Friday morning before dry conditions return. Total snowfall amounts will largely be 2 inches or less with areas northwest of Grand Rapids having the better chances (20 to 40 percent) of seeing 2-3 inches. Temperatures Friday are expected to warm into the mid 30s for much of the area before the colder air advects into the region. - Cold this Weekend the Moderating Temperatures Next Week Behind the cold front 850mb temperatures fall to around -18 C with limited moisture behind the front. Low inversion heights and drier air will not bring a favorable environment for lake effect snow. Therefore only expecting cold temperatures with highs in the teens to low 20s and lows around zero away from Lake Michigan. This dip in temperatures will be short lived as we gradually warm up Sunday into next week where we could see temperatures rise above freezing again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 151 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 MVFR cigs remain variable this afternoon through southern Michigan. Expect MVFR cigs to linger at the southern TAF sites, especially AZO, JXN and BTL with periods of MVFR possible overnight into Wednesday. Otherwise, the northern TAF sites should be VFR with light snow this afternoon, ending around 00Z. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion