390 FXUS63 KGRR 021655 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1155 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances for precipitation remain for Tuesday - Warm and wet Thursday through Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 - Low chances for precipitation remain for Tuesday and Wednesday Quite a dry air mass in place over the area this morning, at the surface and aloft. Surface dew points are in the single digits to lower teens, allowing temps to fall quite a bit with clear skies and light winds. This dry air mass will allow temps to warm quickly today with plenty of sunshine expected to hold. We should see temperatures 10+ degrees warmer compared to Sunday with a southerly component to the wind helping bring warmer air aloft over the area. Clouds will be on the increase tonight as we see some upper jet energy associated with the southern stream come out of the Plains and try to move toward the area. We see some weak short wave activity actually pass through between 06 and 12z tonight. This will have no moisture to work with at that point yet. Then we see some degree of jet coupling take place and likely stay just south of the forecast area on Tuesday as the southern branch remains just far enough away. The various models continue to show some light precipitation possible, some of which is some light freezing rain. QPF amounts are all generally 0.01 inches or a trace, with the highest amounts across the I-94 corridor. Forecast soundings indicate that if any precipitation occurs, it would likely be mainly some drizzle/freezing drizzle. That is because there is quite a bit of dry air in the column above 925-850 mb. The trace amounts in the models look to be associated with the arrival of relatively shallow low level moisture. The window for any possible freezing precipitation is also quite small as sfc temps rise above freezing by mid-morning. This wave will move away from the area, and additional short wave activity coming out of an upper low over the Rockies will try to bring precipitation chances to Wednesday. Once again, the chances are quite low as the southern jet axis keeps the best forcing with the short waves just south of the area. We will end up under a nice sfc ridge between the short wave activity to our south, and the polar jet well north in Canada. This is likely to keep us dry on Wednesday with temps remaining mild. - Warm and wet Thursday through Saturday The forecast for rain chances to increase on Thursday remains consistent with previous forecast cycles. We will see the upper low spinning over Northern California this morning gradually move over the Plains, then lift ENE toward the area on Thursday. The difference with this system is it buckles the upper jet enough that the sfc reflection helps advect better warmth and moisture from the Gulf up and over the area. This is shown in the PWAT progs as they increase to over 1.00 inches on Thursday. The sfc low is expected to pass over the forecast area, providing a direct hit for the rains. The Thursday system should have exited the area by sunrise on Friday, providing a relative dry period for 18-24 hours before the next sfc low along the front lifts NE across the region. Even better moisture will come up over the area Friday with PWATS increasing to almost 1.5 inches. The warmer and wetter air will provide sufficient instability to support a chance of thunderstorms later Friday into early Saturday. This will also bring some of the warmest temps in this pattern to the area Friday-Saturday. The whole system will be swept out by later Saturday with a more zonal upper air pattern redeveloping as the northern stream flattens the upper flow a bit. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 High confidence in VFR for the next 12 hours given a dry ambient airmass and high pressure dominating the forecast. Low-level moisture streams in from the south late tonight into Tuesday morning causing cigs to lower and thicken. MVFR cigs possible along I94 after 10z and likely after 14z, with some uncertainty as to if MVFR conditions can reach the I-96 terminals. Winds over the TAF period will predominantly from the southeast at 10 knots or less. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion