941 FXUS63 KGRR 120802 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 301 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild with rain/snow chances through early Wednesday - Colder with frequent light snow chances late week and next weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 - Mild with rain/snow chances through early Wednesday Today looks like it could be both the quietest and mildest day of the foreseeable future for SW Lower. Typical cool season low clouds are in place this morning, along with another layer of mid clouds associated with a weak upper short wave riding north of the area. The short wave will be exiting the region this morning, with ridging building back in for a short duration. It looks like we are likely to see at least some clearing this afternoon, with highs around 40 supported by 850 mb temps of around +2C. The break of precipitation chances will be short as we see the next short wave in the series come in around daybreak Tuesday on the WNW flow aloft. This short wave is a little stronger than the one this morning, and is a little further south for a more direct hit on the forecast area. The mild air in place, along with more warm air advection ahead of the wave supports more of the precipitation being rain vs. snow. We are not looking at a lot of precipitation as moisture is not all that deep. The deeper moisture is ahead of the system with a likely quick burst of mainly rain. Then we are likely to see the precipitation go to more drizzle as moisture depth shrinks, and the DGZ is not saturated. Liquid precipitation is likely to continue until Tuesday evening/night as the colder air arrives. The column should be all below freezing by daybreak Wednesday, and the DGZ will become saturated once again. - Colder with frequent light snow chances late week and next weekend We will see much colder air arrive with an arctic front first thing Wednesday morning. Good run to run consistency over the last 48 hours now has increased the confidence on this timing. It is all driven by a strong ridge building over the Western U.S.. That in return is dislodging the arctic air from Northern Canada, northwest of Hudson Bay. 850 mb temps of around -19C will be aimed right at the area, as will the strong upper wave supporting it. There is likely to be a burst of snow with the arctic frontal passage, but lake effect does not look favorable after the passage as the low level flow will be offshore from the NNE. This continues right into Thursday as ridging builds in for a period or so, with highs struggling to hit 20F. The pattern change to much more amplified flow will be mostly complete with long wave troughing encompassing just about all of the Eastern half of the country. We will see additional short waves dive in over the region straight from the arctic region, and continue to reinforce the cold air and keep snow chances in with the waves and lake effect. Exact timing and tracks of the waves this far out for Friday and beyond is tough to pin down. What we do know is that we will be in the prime area under cyclonic flow aloft and the upper cold pool to support good lake effect chances for Friday and beyond. This pattern is looking such that we will see snow chances everyday, and gradual accumulations will begin to pile up with frequent nickel and dime events for the western half of the forecast area, along with prolonged colder than normal temperatures. That is about right as we approach the climatological coldest time of the year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 MKG should see ceilings improve to VFR between 6-8Z. For other locations MVFR ceilings linger until 9-12Z. We`ll see MVFR ceilings return briefly Sunday morning before scattering out during the afternoon. Southwest winds will remain breezy through the forecast with gusts around 25 knots before subsiding around 21Z-00Z tomorrow afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 We have the ongoing Small Craft Advisory in effect for the current wind event ahead of and behind the wave moving through the northern Great Lakes. Our bigger concern is the strong Gale event that is looking more and more likely late Tuesday into Wednesday. This looks like a solid Gale, with even a small chance of some Storm Force gusts. We are still a little ways out, so no headlines yet for this event. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...RAH MARINE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion