152 FXUS63 KGRR 052319 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 719 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and Thunderstorm Chances Continue into Early Monday - Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday - Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 - Showers and Thunderstorm Chances Continue into Early Monday The surface low continues to impact the area today into this evening bringing isolated to scattered showers. Mixed layer CAPE is around 500 J/kg south of I-96. This will be the area that has the best chance to see isolated thunderstorms. Instability decreases overnight with showers lingering into early Monday morning as the low slowly shifts east. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible with isolated amounts of 2-4 inches. - Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday High pressure gradually builds into the area Monday into Tuesday with dry conditions expected to last into Wednesday. Highs in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s are expected. Winds Monday will be from the northeast then become light and variable for Tuesday before shifting to the southwest Wednesday. - Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into Thursday Confidence continues with chances for rain and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough and associated front move through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time severe weather is not expected. There are some timing differences with this system as some guidance would bring the front through slower. If this happened shower and thunderstorm chances would linger into Friday. Otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 716 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Radar shows persistent showers near/over the terminals. Thinking this will dissipate with the loss of instability as the upper trough move east across the region. There could also be patches of MVFR/IFR and some fog overnight near JXN which saw quite a bit of rain recently. We likely won`t clear out overnight which should prevent widespread fog from developing. Improvement to VFR expected Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible into this evening mainly south of Holland. Northeast winds are expected to continue into Monday morning and then shift more to the north/northwest as high pressure moves into the region. With this advancing high the pressure gradient may increase enough for winds and waves to reach Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement criteria Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday winds will be light and variable then shift to the southwest Wednesday ahead of our next round of rain and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...04 MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion