848 FXUS63 KGRR 191025 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 625 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of freezing rain this morning - Rain north tonight, low chances for freezing rain - Warmer Saturday with Rain changing to snow Sat night-Sun - Dry early next week with seasonable temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - Pockets of freezing rain this morning Satellite and radar indicated an area of convective cells extending from eastern WI into southwest Lower MI. This appears to be associated with an upper PV max moving southeast across northern Lower MI at this time. It`s possible we are seeing the back edge of precipitation over eastern WI, but then again, satellite does show another more subtle upper PV max farther upstream crossing over extreme western Lake Superior as it moves southeast. As noted before, this is a complicated setup. Weakly forced and largely elevated popcorn convection like we`re seeing here is something that convection allowing models are not usually going to handle well, if at all. Although radar reflectivities are occasionally exceeding 40 dBZ with these cells, surface precipitation amounts so far have been light, on the order of a trace to a hundredth of an inch. This is not surprising given that cloud bases are generally 8000 ft AGL or greater, allowing substantial sub-cloud evaporation to occur. RWIS data shows road temperatures have dropped below freezing across of all of our CWA except for near the I-94 corridor. We expect temperatures there to drop below freezing as well. This is a forecast with very limited certainty but substantial potential risk with respect to the morning commute. Questions remain concerning exactly how much precipitation will fall early this morning. A trace could be non-impactful, whereas even a hundredth could bring very slippery conditions. Given the limited certainty, will be issuing a special weather statement later this morning instead of an advisory. We expect spotty icing conditions this morning, which can actually be more dangerous when traveling, especially at highway speeds. Air temperatures are expected to warm rather quickly after sunrise. Road temperatures will of course lag this a bit, but we nonetheless expect any slippery travel conditions to be greatly reduced if not eliminated before 10 AM for most areas. - Rain north tonight, low chances for freezing rain We will see another short wave move through the region, with this one further north than today`s and tonight`s waves. We will be a bit warmer when this system comes through, and the precipitation shield with this will be further north also. Current indications are that temperatures will be warm enough for this to fall as rain instead of freezing rain. This would be most likely to occur over Osceola and Clare Counties with amounts in the 0.01 to 0.10 inch range. There is obvious concern in this area about any additional freezing rain that might occur given what has already happened there. At this point, probabilities for even 0.01" of freezing rain are in the 10-20 percent range for northern Clare County. We will be monitoring new probabilistic guidance as it becomes available to see if trends change. - Warmer Saturday with Rain changing to snow Sat night-Sun Southerly flow will hold on Saturday, even in the wake of the Friday wave. This is going to give max temps for Saturday a head start, with max temps topping out at least in the 50s up north, and 60s down south. In fact, the front that will be coming down has showed a slowing trend, and will give the area a good chance of a warm spring day, especially for areas away from Lake Michigan. This warm up will be short lived as a stronger upper wave will come by and push a stronger cold front through the area. The frontal passage itself Saturday night will be mostly dry as the flow ahead of it will be coming from the Plains. This means there will be little to moisture initially available. A better chance for precipitation will come late Saturday night and into Sunday post frontal. Initially most of the precipitation could be rain as enough warmer air lingers. We could see it turn to some snow possibly early Sunday as enough cold air moves in. - Dry early next week with seasonable temperatures Behind the cold front and upper wave on Sunday, we will see a fairly strong Canadian ridge move in for at least Monday. Some uncertainty has crept in with additional short waves trying to drop in as early as Tuesday, and more likely Wednesday. This pattern will keep temps in the seasonable range. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 625 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 This update is significantly more optimistic than before with only a 10 to 20 percent chance of IFR restrictions at any terminal. If IFR were to occur, it would be prior to 15Z and would most likely be associated with ground fog in the vicinity of where precipitation occurred and due to nearly calm winds. Regarding ceilings, they are 80 percent likely to remain above fuel alternates and 90 percent likely to remain above IFR. This is based on current observations and model guidance. Winds will be light and variable in direction much of the day across southwest Lower MI, except for MKG, where a lake breeze is expected to develop by afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 This flooding event has just about peaked with the four sites near or above flood stage having crested. With light amounts of precipitation expected over the next few days, additional flooding is not expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ/TJT AVIATION...TJT HYDROLOGY...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion