874
FXUS63 KGRR 160437
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1137 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southwest Flow Lake Effect Snow Tonight and Friday
- Lake Effect Plus Arctic Blast Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
- Southwest Flow Lake Effect Snow Tonight and Friday
Classic southwest flow lake effect snow set up for tonight through
Friday with clipper surface low tracking across northern Lower
Michigan and surface ridge axis to the southeast over the Ohio
Valley. A vorticity maximum at the base of the shortwave trough
axis will aid in providing lift as inversion heights increase from
around 5 kft this evening to over 10 kft by noon on Friday. Expect
bands of heavy snow to be aligned from near South Haven to the
northeast and clipping western Kent and Newaygo Counties.
The flow goes more westerly Friday afternoon as the shortwave
trough axis moves east and the heavier snow should taper off as
inversion heights come down below 10 kft.
- Lake Effect Plus Arctic Blast Next Week
A longwave trough will persist through the weekend and LES will
continue to flare up at times as weak, quick moving shortwave
troughs rotate through. It will be cold through the week with 850
mb temps bottoming out around minus 25C on Monday and Tuesday.
Right now our forecast apparent temperatures are only minus 10F
during this time, but relatively unmodified arctic air coming
around the southern part of Lake Michigan could penetrate into the
southern half of our forecast area and deliver below zero air
temperatures and wind chill/apparent temperatures of minus 20F or
lower. This is something we will focus on the next few days to see
if cold weather headlines will be necessary.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
A clipper system will move through the TAF sites over the next 24
hours. It is currently diving southeast out of MN. Snow associated
with the clipper will move through all of the TAF sites late
tonight and especially into the day on Friday. Lake enhanced snows
will affect MKG and GRR the most.
By 12z-13z MVFR ceilings will have spread into all of the TAF
sites with MKG potentially dipping to near IFR. Snow will spread
into MKG around 08z and into the other TAF sites between 10z and
14z. The most widespread snow and the worst of the conditions will
occur between 15z and 21z as visibilities dip to IFR and below and
ceilings bottom out around 1,000 feet. The snow will persist for
the remainder of the TAF period, from 21z through 06z, with
visibilities improving slightly. Ceilings will likely remain
between 1,000 and 2,000 feet.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037-038-
043-044-050-056-057-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion