428 FXUS63 KGRR 241900 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 200 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick Round of Snow This Evening - Lake Effect Snow Late Tonight into Wednesday - Mostly Dry Wednesday through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 - Quick Round of Snow This Evening The feature to watch for this evening is currently moving through Wisconsin. Currently snow ahead of a front is dropping visibilities below a mile. Snowfall rates around a half inch to an inch are expected with this band along and north of M-20 and around a quarter of an inch per hour further south. Probabilities of snowfall rates of an inch or more are around 40 percent along and north of US-10. Timing would bring this round of snow into the Ludington area around 5pm then expanding southeast toward a Holland to Grand Rapids to Mount Pleasant line around 7pm and into the Jackson area round 9pm. Snowfall will last around 1-3 hours over any one location. Areas along and South of I-96 are expected to see an inch or less with areas further north in the 1-3 inch range. Winds behind the front could gust to 40 mph or higher which would cause blowing and drifting snow. Quick reductions in visibility, accumulations, along with blowing and drifting snow could cause impacts to the evening commute, with the highest risk along and north of M-20. - Lake Effect Snow Late Tonight into Wednesday Within the shortwave that will bring the round of snow this evening, another round of positive vorticty advection will swing through with the colder air advecting in over the lake. Delta Ts will be in the mid to upper teens paired with moisture in the dendritic growth zone lake effect showers are expected to develop mainly north of I-96. Inversion heights will prevent showers from becoming deeper, but still expecting some light accumulations late tonight into early morning with another inch or less of snow with the highest amounts north of US-10 and west of US-131. - Mostly Dry Wednesday through Friday, Snow Possible This Weekend Outside of the light lake effect in the north Wednesday morning, dry conditions are expected through Friday. Temperatures will trend warmer each day with mid to upper 40s expected for Friday. A cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday, although moisture is lacking with the front. This weekend we`ll be on the northern edge of a couple systems that could bring some accumulating snow for Saturday and Sunday. 24 hour probabilities of an inch or more for Saturday after 30 to 40 percent and on Sunday 20 to 30 percent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 Key changes: - refined timing of narrow snow band passing early tonight - added LLWS to northern terminals after snow band passes - went slightly more optimistic with cigs/vsbys at AZO/BTL/JXN A narrow band of snow associated with a cold front was moving east-southeast across northwest WI at this time. This feature looks more potent than before, so we are introducing either TEMPO or PROB30 of what should be relatively brief IFR restrictions for our northern terminals. There appears to be a more significant difference between how much conditions deteriorate at terminals farther north (MKG...GRR...LAN) versus to the south (AZO...BTL... JXN) and have attempted to represent that here. Winds behind the front will be gusty even at the surface, but LLWS nonetheless looks like a possibility at least early on with indications of a 40-50 knot wind surge not far above the surface and immediately behind the front. Conditions could quickly improve behind the front with MVFR ceilings above fuel alternates, but ceilings may eventually drop below 2000 ft AGL areawide as colder and lake moistened air works into the region, especially after 06Z. These final details have not been included in the TAFs for the sake of brevity. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...TJT

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion