569 FXUS63 KGRR 281056 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 656 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain Showers Late Tonight into Thursday - Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend - Unsettled Pattern Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 - Rain Showers Late Tonight into Thursday Shortwave trough moving through currently has sparked off some isolated light showers and sprinkles. Any light shower should clear the area by daybreak with skies clearing. Another shortwave trough moves through the northern Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Associated positive vorticity advection seems weaker, but mid level frontogenesis and low to mid level moisture with the front are sufficient enough for scattered showers to develop. These showers will move into the Ludington area around midnight and gradually shift southeast with the front into Thursday morning. Showers may linger through Thursday afternoon along the I-94 corridor before dry conditons return Thursday night. High temperatures today will be in the low 70s with lows in the 50s. Thursday behind the front temperatures will only warm into the 60s with low 70s across southern and south central Michigan. Temperatures Thursday night into Friday drop into the 30s. - Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend Ensembles and cluster analysis are trending drier for Saturday as high pressure holds a little longer over the Great Lakes region. There are still some solutions that bring light rain to the area, but the number of ensemble members has dropped over the past 24 hours. Current forecast has a 20 percent chance for southwest Michigan. Sunday the cluster analysis begins to diverge on the overall pattern. There is an increase in members showing light rainfall amounts over the area with positive vorticity streaming through and increased mid level moisture. Best chances 30 to 40 percent are along and south of I-96 with amounts less that a quarter of an inch. - Unsettled Pattern Next Week As mentioned in the previous section model solutions as seen in the cluster analysis diverge with lower confidence on the exact forecast for next week. A closed low is anticipated to develop over the Plains, but the exact strength, track, and timing vary. Southwest flow and the looming low could bring multiple rounds of rain to the area through most of next week. The chance for below freezing temperatures next week remains low as mild temperatures remain in place. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 VFR conditions continue with clearing skies this morning. Southeast winds turn to the south and southwest today with winds largely 5 to 15 knots. Low level wind shear develops between 6-12Z with southwest winds around 40 knots. At this time showers should largely hold off until after 12Z, MKG currently has a PROB30 after 7Z for light rain. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Offshore winds will gradually turn to the southwest today and build this evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop late tonight into Thursday with gusts around 25 knots and wave heights 3 to 6 feet. Highest waves are expected to be north of South Haven. A front will move through Thursday bringing lighter northwest winds and waves falling below 4 feet. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion