938 FXUS63 KGRR 030630 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 230 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Chance (20 to 30 percent) for Showers Today, Windy - Trending Warmer with More Rain Chances through Tuesday - Cooler Wednesday into Weekend, Frost/Freeze Possible && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026 - Slight Chance (20 to 30 percent) for Showers Today, Windy The shortwave trough over and surface low over Minnesota will gradually move into the area later this morning and afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually increase through the morning but whether showers make in into the region is uncertain. Soundings show a persistent layer of dry air at the surface which may limit rain from reaching the ground. Moisture isn`t that deep either, but the best chance (20 to 30 percent) for light showers will be during the afternoon when the best source of lift is present. The bigger story is that southwest winds will quickly pick up this morning with the low level jet moving over the region. Soundings mix down gusts 30 to 40 mph with the highest gusts during the afternoon. Some isolated gusts could approach 45 mph. - Trending Warmer with More Rain Chances through Tuesday We`ll see a brief warm up with lows in the upper 30s to 40s into Tuesday with highs in the 60s today and low 70s tomorrow. This is due to warm air advection within the stronger southwest flow in the low to mid levels. Within this southwest flow we`ll see positive vorticity advection streaming into the region starting Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. There are some differences in how fast the low to mid level fronts move through which would impact when dry conditions return along with temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best rain chances (50 to 70 percent) will be along and south of a Muskegon to Alma line. A few rumbles of thunder are possible Monday night into Tuesday. - Cooler Wednesday into Weekend, Frost/Freeze Possible Behind the front cooler temperatures return with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s resulting in the potential for frost each night into Mother`s Day weekend. Within the upper level trough, we`ll see a vorticity maximum swing through Thursday which could spark off some showers throughout the day. As the vorticity maximum exits the area, northwest flow moves in. We`ll need to monitor for any shortwave troughs as they could bring some slight chances (20 percent) for rain into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026 A brief period of low level wind shear is possible between 09Z and 13Z this morning. Southwest winds then pick up through the morning and afternoon. Gusts initially around 20 to 25 knots are expected before increasing to 30 to 35 knots this afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain VFR. Ceilings will gradually lower to around 6000 to 8000 feet this afternoon with a chance (20 to 30 percent) for showers. Showers may remain more virga due to dry air near the surface. Any rain that does reach the surface would be light. Winds become lighter toward the end of the TAF period with skies gradually clearing. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026 Southwest winds gusting 25 to 30 knots today will cause hazardous conditions to small craft. Waves are anticipated to build to 4 to 7 feet this morning into the afternoon. Winds will gradually fall into the 5 to 15 knot range tonight with waves slowly falling below 4 feet. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected once more Monday with southwest winds gusting to 30 knots and waves building into the 4 to 6 foot range largely north of Holland. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, but the threat may remain over land. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ038-045-046- 051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074. Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ039-040. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion