406 FXUS63 KGRR 011111 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 611 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clearing skies and cooler conditions through Monday - Mainly rain likely on Tuesday - Increasingly warmer and wet late in the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2406 - Clearing skies and cooler conditions through Monday The light snow from last evening is already a distant memory having already moved to the Lower Great Lakes and further east. The only thing remaining this morning from that system is some linger lower clouds over the southern third of the state. Our weather will be dominated by a fairly strong Canadian sfc ridge for the next couple of days. The air at 850 mb is cold enough for lake effect today, ranging from -11 to -17C across the area. However, we are on the anti-cyclonic side of the Northern branch of the upper jet, and the low level flow is offshore over the area being from the NNE. The models are in good agreement that we will see the clouds clear out of most of the area today, except for maybe the far NW corner where some lake effect clouds may linger. The aforementioned cold air at 850 mb will limit max temperatures today to the mid 20s to near 30. We will see a moderation of high temps for Monday as the sfc ridge moves east of the area, and southerly flow brings 850 mb temps to around 0C by Monday evening. This will support highs back into the 40s. - Mainly rain likely on Tuesday What had been looking like the potential for an impactful Tuesday morning with some mixed precipitation, now looks like that potential has diminished significantly. Even the chance of precipitation in general has gone down quite a bit. The amount of rain has diminished a bit as the southern branch of the jet is remaining a bit more suppressed as previously shown by a lot of the models and ensemble members. The wave responsible for the Tuesday system is still there, but not as much of a direct hit as previously thought. In addition, the timing is a bit delayed compared to previous thinking. This gives temps a chance to warm enough to keep precipitation mainly liquid. - Increasingly warmer and wet late in the week Even though we see the system on Tuesday move by, and expect cooler temperatures, we will actually see temperatures warm a bit for Wednesday. There is not really any cold air to be tapped as the northern branch of the jet is well north over Canada. We see a quick sfc ridge move by, and allow southerly flow to become established early Wednesday. This will bring warmer air up and over the area. The core of the southern jet should stay south of the area on Wednesday, and keep any precipitation south of the state. By Thursday, we will see the long wave trough over the Western U.S. take shape and complete the pattern change for our region. This will be that a SW flow aloft is established. This will allow energy ejecting from the western trough to lift NE toward the area. The first of those systems will approach Thursday. The system will draw quite a bit of warm air northward with it, and some rich moisture from the Gulf. Then another system will quickly organize and follow on Friday into Saturday. There is high confidence that we will be on the warm side of this system. Temperatures are easily going to be in the 50s, if not higher. Also with the arrival of the warm and wet weather, instability will build over the area, bringing a threat of some storms with both systems from Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 610 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 We expect a vast majority of the area will see VFR conditions for this entire forecast period. Low clouds that were over the southern terminals have pushed well south of the sites now. Mid clouds have been retreating to the north and dissipating. We expect these trends to continue. The only cloud cover that could cause some minor impacts would be some lake effect cloud cover near KMKG around 4k ft agl. Winds will generally be from the NE through today, switching to more NNW later in the afternoon. Skies should be clear everywhere tonight, and winds will go light and variable with high pressure passing through the area. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion