549 FXUS63 KGRR 201744 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 144 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming Up This Weekend, Rain Saturday Night/Sunday - Seasonable Early Next Week With Generally Dry Conditions - Complex Pattern Late Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 - Warming Up This Weekend, Rain Saturday Night/Sunday A weak cold front is crossing the area this afternoon, with a limited supply of cold air preventing much of a cooldown. Flow turns southerly into Saturday with 850mb temps warming into the teens by Saturday Night. Surface ridging will keep things dry during this period with highs in the 50s north and 60s south. Late Saturday night into Sunday sees a cold front slowly drift across the area with rain showers expected behind it. A strong front- parallel component to the flow pattern will delay the cold air`s arrival until the precipitation is exiting the area favoring precipitation remaining rain through the whole period. Highs once - Warming Up This Weekend, Rain Saturday Night/Sunday - Seasonable Early Next Week With Generally Dry Conditions - Complex Pattern Late Next Weekagain may reach the 60s across Southern Michigan where the front arrives later. Across Central Michigan, earlier frontal arrival will looks to keep the northern third of the forecast area`s highs in the 40s. - Seasonable Early Next Week With Generally Dry Conditions Ridging is favored to return Monday as the front and associated mid- level wave depart. This will support generally dry conditions across the area. The caveat however is that embedded shortwaves (which are difficult to pin down the placement/timing of at this forecast range) may drive low precipitation chances. Highs will generally be in the 40s to low 50s, which is near normal for this time of year. - Complex Pattern Late Next Week Confidence decreases mid to late next week as the placement and positioning of upper-level troughing across the eastern CONUS will be dependent on the strength of ridging across the western half of the country. Given the prevailing troughing precipitation is likely. However temperatures are more uncertain. For example, 850mb temps Wednesday Afternoon are forecast to be in the negative teens if favoring the ECMWF solution, and the positive single digits with the GFS. Confidence in specifics of temperature and precipitation will become clearer in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Latest IR loop shows high clouds moving south across the region. Conditions are VFR at the terminals, but that will change this evening. A weak cold front will move south across Lower MI resulting in low cloud development and some fog after midnight. We could see cigs fall below 1k ft for a few hours prior to sunrise. However, once the front moves south of the terminals, cigs will quickly improve to VFR shortly after 12z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 The Grand River at Comstock Park continues to fall as of this afternoon, and should fall below flood stage by Saturday Morning. With light amounts of precipitation expected over the next few days, additional flooding is not expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion