948 FXUS63 KGRR 080746 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 246 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry and mild through Tuesday - Much cooler and unsettled weather beginning Wed and beyond && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Mainly dry and mild through Tuesday Now that the upper low late last week has moved out of the area, we are back to our dry and mild El Nino fall for a few days. More specifically, the northern branch of the upper jet has lifted north again, and will mostly be a non-issue through Tuesday. We are just close enough the the upper jet that a fairly strong upper wave embedded in it will try to just clip our northern counties this afternoon, and bring a weak front through all of the area. A sprinkle or light shower can not be ruled out up north, but the moisture over the area is quite dry to start with, with no significant moisture advection expected. We are likely to see some clouds develop along the front with some help from the lake this morning. Additional clouds will stream in behind the wave tonight from the north, and some lake clouds are likely too. This cloud cover will be too shallow to do much more than the clouds. A ridge moves by on Monday which will eventually clear us out once again. Then we look to see somewhat a repeat of today with a short wave moving by to our north, and a weak and dry cold front moving through on Tuesday. Even with these "cold fronts" moving through, the air is not that much cooler with the deep cold pool staying north of the area, and the flow coming from the Pacific. Highs should be in the 50s and 60s through Tuesday. - Much cooler and unsettled weather beginning Wed and beyond We will see a change arrive on Wednesday as the upper air pattern over North America amplifies quite a bit. This is being driven by very strong northern and southern jets over the Eastern Pacific. The most notable feature is nearly a 500 dam 500 mb low over the northern Pacific. The downstream effects will be a strong ridge over the Rockies, allowing strong long wave troughing developing over much of the Eastern U.S.. We will see a southern stream system approach the area on Wednesday from the west, with sufficient moisture advection ahead of it to bring decent rain chances to the area. This low establishes the trough over the area, and then a strong northern stream trough dives south over the area with the establishment of the upper ridge to our west. This phasing of the streams will help to develop a large upper trough over much of the Eastern part of the country. This will allow for a few more instability showers for our area, while the main energy transfers to the East Coast. Lake effect looks to get going also with the area firmly under the upper cold pool and cyclonic flow from Thursday and beyond. The general consensus is that the flow will be mainly from N to S, favoring areas over the lake and maybe the immediate lakeshore. Delta t`s will be in the mid 20s C with 850 mb temps expected to drop to around -6 to -7C. This degree of cold air, if it occurs, would be cold enough for some of the showers to be snow showers away from the warmer lake. Not a lot of rain/snow chances will be present inland, but hit or miss showers will be present for much of next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 We are starting out the forecast period with mainly clear skies across all of the terminals. A weak front over Wisconsin is poised to move through the area today. This will bring a period of a few hours of low clouds based in the lower MVFR category from the NW beginning this morning, and exiting the area to the SE this afternoon. As this front moves through, we will see winds increase from the WSW with gusts of 25 to 30 knots likely. We will see clearing then take place this afternoon for a bit. Then additional lower clouds will drop in just after sunset from North to South. The northern terminals will see more extensive cloud cover. This cloud cover is expected to be VFR, so it will not be as much of an impact as the frontal clouds. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion