727 FXUS63 KGRR 111712 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1212 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow north this morning with no accumulations expected - Precipitation chances this weekend still trending downward && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 - Light snow north this morning with no accumulations expected APX radar shows light returns associated with LES extending as far south as northern Osceola/Clare counties with light snow being reported at CAD and HTL. Will keep slight chances for snow into late this morning. Accumulations are highly unlikely and travel impacts are not expected. - Precipitation chances this weekend still trending downward We will see a slow upward trend in temperatures into the weekend with predominantly dry conditions. Precipitation chances this weekend continue to look unfavorable, with maybe a 20 percent chance of a rain/snow mix south of I-96 during the day Sunday when highs are expected to reach 40 degrees. Such mild temperatures naturally reduce concerns for slippery travel. Any precipitation that occurs will almost certainly bring light accumulations, probably on the order of one or two hundredths of an inch. So, we are talking about a very low stakes forecast here impact-wise. The reason for any chances of precipitation at all likely has to do with the Canadian ensemble (GEPS), which has been favoring a more northern track of the surface low. This has been at odds with the ECMWF Ensemble (ECE) and the GEFS Ensemble. The AI GEFS does show a slight chance of precipitation along the I-94 corridor, which sort of splits the difference between the GEPS and the ECE/GEFS. It`s worth noting that it`s surprisingly common to see the control/deterministic member of an ensemble being a significant outlier relative to the other members. This is particularly common with the ECE, but it also happens a lot with the GEFS and even sometimes with the GEPS. This should serve as a reminder to not put too much stock into what can sometimes be a scary-looking deterministic medium range model solution that may entirely ignore the far more plausible scenarios provided by the ensemble. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 With the exception of JXN, predominantly MVFR conditions are expected through late evening. JXN will likely see a mix of VFR/MVFR. Satellite trends suggest raising cigs above 2kft for all sites this afternoon. Between the tendency for lake driven cloud cover to persist longer than expected, HREF guidance, and NBM guidance which handles lake effect stratocu well, have gone pessimistic and kept all terminals except LAN/JXN MVFR through the TAF period. They could go VFR late tonight but confidence in that is low. LAN/JXN being further inland are likely to go VFR after 05z. Gusty winds to 20 knots will diminish late this afternoon with winds aob 10 knots following into Thursday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion