064 FXUS63 KGRR 111139 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 639 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow north this morning with no accumulations expected - Precipitation chances this weekend still trending downward && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 - Light snow north this morning with no accumulations expected APX radar shows light returns associated with LES extending as far south as northern Osceola/Clare counties with light snow being reported at CAD and HTL. Will keep slight chances for snow into late this morning. Accumulations are highly unlikely and travel impacts are not expected. - Precipitation chances this weekend still trending downward We will see a slow upward trend in temperatures into the weekend with predominantly dry conditions. Precipitation chances this weekend continue to look unfavorable, with maybe a 20 percent chance of a rain/snow mix south of I-96 during the day Sunday when highs are expected to reach 40 degrees. Such mild temperatures naturally reduce concerns for slippery travel. Any precipitation that occurs will almost certainly bring light accumulations, probably on the order of one or two hundredths of an inch. So, we are talking about a very low stakes forecast here impact-wise. The reason for any chances of precipitation at all likely has to do with the Canadian ensemble (GEPS), which has been favoring a more northern track of the surface low. This has been at odds with the ECMWF Ensemble (ECE) and the GEFS Ensemble. The AI GEFS does show a slight chance of precipitation along the I-94 corridor, which sort of splits the difference between the GEPS and the ECE/GEFS. It`s worth noting that it`s surprisingly common to see the control/deterministic member of an ensemble being a significant outlier relative to the other members. This is particularly common with the ECE, but it also happens a lot with the GEFS and even sometimes with the GEPS. This should serve as a reminder to not put too much stock into what can sometimes be a scary-looking deterministic medium range model solution that may entirely ignore the far more plausible scenarios provided by the ensemble. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 639 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 The biggest decision with this update was what to do with MVFR ceilings. Nighttime microphysics satellite RGB shows extensive stratocumulus coverage over Lower MI. A sliver of cloud-free area is noted over parts of south central Lower MI, but this is expected to fill in later this morning. The presence of MVFR ceilings is not much in question today; the real questions are 1) whether these ceilings will drop below fuel alternates of 2000 ft AGL...hereafter fuel alts...and 2) how long this would last. Based on NBM guidance it seems the answer to the first question above is probably yes, fuel alts will occur, particularly after 15Z this morning. Regarding the second question of duration, HREF guidance keeps a greater than 90 percent chance of fuel alts most of today and probabilities above 50 percent continue all the way through 06Z tonight. This might be a bit too prolonged given that NBM guidance is leaning towards ceilings above 2000 feet by late afternoon. Have leaned towards the more optimistic NBM solution in this TAF package for timing the end of fuel alts, but it`s very plausible that they could persist well into tonight given that we are in a cold advecting, lake effect cloud pattern in early February. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...TJT

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion