954 FXUS63 KGRR 031141 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 641 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few snow showers with little to no impact through Wednesday - Accumulating snow likely Thursday into Friday - Cold this weekend then moderating temperatures next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 - A few snow showers with little to no impact through Wednesday The widespread light snow from Monday has diminished to some scattered areas of light snow this morning. The wave that was responsible for the snow from yesterday is well east of the area over New England already. There are a few features over the next 18 hours or so that will keep small light snow chances in the forecast. The first is a weak sfc trough that is trailing behind a short wave over Georgian Bay early this morning. The snow is not widespread, and where it is, it is generally light with visibilities only down to 3-5 miles. Moisture is not deep with inversion heights around 4-5k ft due to the cyclonic flow remaining north of the area. We will then see another short wave over the Western U.P. drop SE toward the area, and a final one pass through from Wisconsin through the area this afternoon. The passage of these features will help veer winds to the NNE tonight, taking most of the snow shower activity offshore, except maybe Little and Big Sable Points. Some of these snow showers will then come onshore on Wed, and diminish quickly as the flow turns onshore with sfc ridging diving just south of the area. The building subsidence will only continue to squash the snow showers as they move onshore. - Accumulating snow likely Thursday into Friday The persistent flow from the NW in this La Nina year will continue to keep the solid winter weather in place for the region. The next short wave in the NW flow will drop in on Thursday. As this wave moves through, we will see low level flow from the SW essentially provide steady warm air advection for the area. Even with these two forcing mechanisms moving through, deep moisture is lacking, so precipitation amounts will be limited. Another wave will quickly move in late Thursday night into Friday morning. This feature will be a bit more favorable for precipitation generation. It has a stronger upper jet supporting the wave, which helps with the strength of the wave. We also have a sfc trough coming through to supply the low level forcing. Finally, moisture is deeper with this system, so snowfall amounts are likely to be higher than the Thursday system. A couple of these waves have overperformed a bit as they can. One thing that should keep this Thu night/Fri system from overperforming will be low inversion heights remaining due to the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft staying north of the area. The lakeshore is likely to see the highest totals as lake enhancement will be likely with 850 mb temps around -8C. Again, the inversion should keep it from getting out of hand. - Cold this weekend then moderating temperatures next week Behind the strong wave and snow Thursday night and Friday, we will see another surge of arctic air drop in over the area. We see a temporary return of the flow from the arctic vs. the Canadian maritimes like this week. A large area of Canadian High pressure will drop down and supply the low level flow of arctic air. Lake effect does not look to be much of a factor this weekend even with the cold air coming back in. This is because this air mass is more shallow as is typical as we get to February, and the deep cold and cyclonic flow bypasses us the north/northeast. Sfc ridging builds in, keeping most of the area dry this weekend. We will notice the beginning of a pattern change take shape on Monday, that is likely to last much of next week. This pattern change is facilitated by strong Pacific jet energy pushing into the Western U.S. coast. This in turn pushes the ridge toward us, and we see return flow set up from the SW on Monday, advecting warmer temps up over the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 641 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 We are starting out this morning with MVFR ceilings down along the I-94 corridor terminals, VFR along the I-96 corridor, and MVFR north of I-96. The northern MVFR conditions are in the wake of a weak front dropping through. The winds are shifting from SW ahead of the front, to NW behind it along with the MVFR conditions. We expect the MVFR conditions to persist most of the day, along with flurries that should not bring visibilities down below MVFR. The wind will change this evening to become from the NE. This is likely to lift ceilings a bit to VFR. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion