854 FXUS63 KGRR 141732 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers linger today across Southern Lower MI - Wet weather mid week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Chances for showers linger today across Southern Lower MI Surface cold front is situated near I-96 at 400am with a slow progression to the south. We expect the front to pass out of the CWA and south of I-94 by mid morning. Some lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through that time. MUCAPE values at this early hour are still around 1,000 j/kg. By 15z MUCAPE values should dip to near zero as the better moisture clears to the south. Showers should end by about midday. The morning will have a fair amount of cloud cover but we will see more sun as the afternoon wears on. Dry conditions are expected from this afternoon through Monday night. - Wet weather mid week On Tuesday a mid level shortwave trough will take aim on the area from the west. This mid level wave will push a cold front into the area at the same time. Surface dew points will increase into the lower 60s, combined with cooling in the mid levels will result in MUCAPE values exceed 1,000 j/kg. A surge in the low level jet on Tuesday to around 40 knots makes severe weather a possibility (wind/hail are most likely). We are in a day 3 marginal from SPC at this point. Upper troughing will linger into Wednesday and Thursday aloft with additional shortwaves working through the flow. At this point it looks like periodic showers and thunderstorms through the Tuesday through Thursday period. Models are still indicating a strong low moving through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. Rainfall amounts during the mid week period will likely approach or slightly exceed 1 inch in many areas. Highs during the work week look to stay in the 70s given cooler temperatures aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Rain will exit the area over the next few hours with KJXN likely to see some showers linger the longest. Occasional MVFR ceilings possible at least for a few hours at KJXN and maybe at KAZO and KBTL as well. Otherwise...sky will trend toward clear this evening with VFR conditions expected to persist through tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 411 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Will be issuing a Beach Hazards Statement and a Small Craft Advisory from Grand Haven to the south. Northwest winds will pick up today in the wake of a cold front into the 15 to 25 knot range. We expect waves to build to 3 to 5 feet around midday which will continue into the evening hours. North sides of north piers will be the most dangerous places to swim today such as North Beach in South Haven and Holland State Park. Winds and waves will fall to below advisory threshold for tonight and Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ056- 064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>846. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Maczko MARINE...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion