959 FXUS63 KGRR 031934 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 234 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Milder Temperatures with Occasional Storminess && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 - Milder Temperatures with Occasional Storminess The Great Lakes region will have two shortwave troughs coming through this week as cold high pressure is replaced by milder air streams in southwest flow. The first trough is minoring out as it moves through and the bulk of the QPF remains south of the forecast area. Current POPS and QPF may need to be lowered, especially across the northern forecast area, if this trough continues the flatter, weakening trend shown in some of the model guidance. A more significant trough ejects out of the western CONUS by the end of the week with rain expected ahead and along a slow moving baroclinic zone from late Friday through Saturday. Current indications are for chance probabilities (30 to 40 percent) for QPF over an inch of rain possible by Saturday, especially with any embedded convection. Quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend with an active pattern continuing into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 Lower cloud decks have moved into the area, though rain looks like it will stay safely south of all locations. Southern sites of AZO/BTL/JXN have dropped to IFR, with MVFR in LAN and GRR. These cigs stay in place through around 00z/7pm this evening before clouds lift at all locations through mid evening. There`s a slight chance of some patchy fog formation after midnight, especially in the more southern sites along I-94, but doesn`t look like it will be enough to bring visibilities down below 4 miles at any locations. Winds remain generally light throughout the period at all locations and while some clouds move back in late tomorrow. Conditions should remain VFR at all locations tomorrow. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...AMD

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion