186 FXUS63 KGRR 200802 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 302 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy Friday, Rain to Snow Showers - Colder With Snow Over the Weekend - Clipper System Mid Week Brings Wintry Mix && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 - Windy Friday, Rain to Snow Showers Wind Advisory for gusts around 45 mph near and south of Grand Haven, Grand Rapids, Ionia, and Saint Johns looks good. The morning will be breezy with southwest gusts over 30 mph, but the west-southwest peak gusts around 45 will probably occur during the afternoon. A few gusts to 50 mph can`t be ruled out, as some models indicate the presence of over 45 knots in the mixing layer around 1,000 feet on the south side of the surface low pressure system. Clouds and precipitation would tend to temper the surface wind gust threat, though the second shot of cold air advection occurring during the afternoon may overcome that. Muskegon, Montcalm, and Gratiot counties will be on the margins of the 45 mph wind threat, though their time frame of concern would be between 3 pm and 7 pm. To the north toward US-10, underneath the warm-secluded surface low, winds will hardly be a concern. Aside from the wind, it will also be a pretty raw day with drizzly rain showers, low clouds, and temperatures falling below 40, eventually giving way to snow showers by mid afternoon into evening from south to north. Can`t rule out slick spots in portions of West Michigan late in the evening, especially if temperatures err closer to the 10th percentile of NBM, which is closer to the consensus of short-term models, near freezing. Snow may linger over US-10 later in the night into Saturday morning, which is then where the potential for slick spots will shift. - Colder With Snow Over the Weekend Our taste of spring ends with temperatures in the 20s to 30s over the weekend. Slick spots on roads do seem possible again Saturday night into Sunday. The upper level trough will set up over the region with northwest flow bringing the colder air, along with a shortwave trough that will provide some lift for snow showers across the area. The best chances are Saturday night into Sunday as 850mb temperatures fall to around -13C. Lake temperatures are around 3C resulting in delta T`s in the mid teens so expect some light lake effect snow to be present mainly along the lakeshore to US-131. 24 hour probabilities of 2 inches or more are low the the highest probabilities of 30 percent in far southwest Michigan during the Saturday night through Sunday time frame. - Clipper System Mid Week Brings Wintry Mix Overall mostly dry conditions are expected with high temperatures in the 30s to 40s through next week. Our coldest temperatures are expected for Tuesday morning where lows could drop into the mid teens to single digits from south to north. A clipper system is expected mid week. Clusters show variations in the timing and strength of the quick moving system, but there is a signal for some accumulating snow mainly toward central Michigan with a 30 to 40 percent chance of 2 inches or more of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. A transition to rain is possible during the day Wednesday as temperatures warm, with the best chances of this occuring south of I-96. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 Periods of rain and IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected overnight. Easterly winds will quickly become westerly Friday and become strong with gusts toward 40 knots in the afternoon and early evening. The thunder potential is low but the best chances would be toward MKG. Colder air moves in Friday with the westerly winds. Rain is expected to transition to snow. Temperatures above freezing will cause any snow to melt on contact. Low level wind shear will be present as the front moves through Friday afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening for MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS/RAH AVIATION...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion