354 FXUS63 KGRR 191151 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 651 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous Travel Conditions into Early Tuesday Morning - Additional Rounds of Snow Wednesday into Friday - Rare and Potentially Near Record-Setting Cold This Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 - Hazardous Travel Conditions into Early Tuesday Morning Phase one of the winter storm has been underway early this morning with lake effect snow showers persisting as 1000-700mb flow off the lake has transitioned to westerly and will soon go WNW to NW later this morning, all with a deeply saturated column as inversion heights are around 10k ft and will remain so until early afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur from now through about 18z. Snow will continue past 18z but lighter, however the compensating factor then will be higher wind gusts. Nam12 and RAP13 925-850mb and DGZ omegas have been solid at 6-10 ubar/s or even higher than 10 ubar/s at times. Phase two of this event is when the winds kick in. Already we are seeing the wind shift occur at the lakeshore and into the US 131 corridor with gusts of 20-30 kt and these winds will go up this morning and spread all the way inland. As such, snow and blowing snow will extend far inland as well. The worst travel conditions will occur from now through the evening commute. The highly powdery nature of the snow will blow sideways and fresh snow will get lofted off the snowpack. Winds gusting in the 35-40 mph range will lead to extensive loss of visibility and whiteout conditions at times. Snow being lofted off vehicles and around vehicles that are traveling will add to the hazardous conditions. Snow intensity eases up this evening and the winds will start to decrease. However, based on 00z guidance the snow showers will continue tonight into Tuesday morning as a final vort lobe at 500mb moves over the lake and provides about a 6 hour synoptic boost in the 03z-09z Tue window and recovery of inversion heights back to 10k ft, leading to a perk up of snow shower intensity even as flake size diminishes due to the DGZ being near the ground. Snow showers will wind down on Tuesday with little in the way of additional accumulation. In general, travel conditions should be improving around the time of the Tuesday morning commute and especially into the midday period. Wind chill readings will likely drop close to -15 across US 10 early Tuesday morning and as such will issue a Cold Weather Advisory from Lake County east to Clare County. - Additional Rounds of Snow Wednesday into Friday Warm advection snow is very likely on Wednesday as an upper trough swings through, a LLJ in association with a strong 850mb thermal gradient sets up across MI/IL/IN, and a weak surface low moves overhead. This will be a quick hitting but fairly impactful system with 2"-5" over a 12 hour period Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Snowfall rates of a half inch per hour or close to one inch per hour at times are possible. More upper troughing and CAA at 850mb over the lake late Wednesday night into early Thursday may help regenerate lake effect snow showers with additional accumulations in W to WNW flow. By Friday, lake effect snow will take on NW to NNW orientation and thus migrate closer to the lake. - Rare and Potentially Near Record-Setting Cold This Weekend ECE guidance has been repeatedly indicating a rare bout of truly impressive cold coming our way Friday into the weekend. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) appears to be a major player in the longwave pattern and surface pressure anomalies setting up over the northern United States later this week and weekend. The AO is already negative and is about to drop further into some impressive territory, potentially around an index of -5. As the AO gets increasingly negative, we typically get increasingly colder. ECE probabilities for 850mb temperatures to drop to -30C or colder are now 80-100% across the U.P. and 60-80% near and north of US 10. Various deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS have the -30C isotherm (or colder) pushing through the entire Lower Peninsula. The ECMWF and GFS push air temperatures at the surface into subzero territory during the day Friday behind an impressive Arctic front that sweeps through late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Both models are indicating wind chill readings getting down to -25 or colder during the day. By Saturday, ECE mean high temperatures are showing highs around 0F with low temperatures of -10 to -20 across the region. At GRR for example, over 50% of the ECE members show -20 or colder and nearly 20% of the members show -24 or colder, which would tie the coldest reading ever recorded at Grand Rapids. Plenty could change between now and then but given the rarity and strength of the signal it is important to mention, and temperatures this cold can cause some significant issues to cold water pipes. Very cold temperatures are shown by the ECE to continue through the weekend and into the following week with additional subzero nightly readings possible. This will be something to keep an eye on with future forecast updates. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 Lake effect snow and blowing snow will be problematic for this TAF period. Winds gusting at or above 30 kts combined with falling snow will drop visibilities to 3/4sm or lower at times. Best risk for most frequent 1/4sm visibilities will be at MKG but can`t rule out other sites dipping down that low at times. Conditions improve this evening as winds decrease. There is still potential for visibilities after 03z tonight to drop to 3/4sm or less at MKG/GRR/AZO given very small flake size (a better visibility reducer) but not confident enough to include in the TAF at this time. The most likely scenario is 2sm-3sm visibility there. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 Gale Warning and Heavy Freezing Spray Warning continue as winds increase today. The freezing spray threat should end on Tuesday as winds diminish. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-038-043- 044-050-056-057-064-071. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ038>040. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ039-040- 045-046-051-052-058-059-065>067-072>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...Hoving

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion