114 FXUS63 KGRR 121051 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 651 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather today through Saturday morning - Showers and storms possible Saturday afternoon/night - Cooler and drier weather early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - Dry weather today through Saturday morning Vertical profiles are quite dry today, tonight and into Saturday. Moisture is being swept to the east and south with the frontal passage currently moving through the area early this morning. A drier westerly flow will prevail into Saturday. Surface dew points will hold in the middle to upper 50s through midday on Saturday which is significantly down from the lower 70s of the past couple of days. It will be cooler today with highs in the 70s. - Showers and storms possible Saturday afternoon/night A reinforcing cold front will move through the area Saturday night bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The deeper moisture will remain south of the area, but enough of a return happens to at least given a chance at some thunder again. There is a marginal chance at severe weather Saturday evening and Saturday night. The front will be pushed by a mid level upper wave sagging into the region from the north. SPC has us in a marginal threat for severe weather. 850mb low level jet speeds are 30-35 knots and MUCAPE values reach near 1,000 j/kg in pockets. Fairly quick mid level winds of 40-50 knots make damaging winds a threat but thinking the overall prospects for severe weather are on the low side for Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of the precipitation may linger across Southern Lower Michigan into Sunday morning before ending. - Cooler and drier weather early next week Cooler and drier weather will begin the work week as cool ridging builds in. 850mb temperatures actually drop into the single digits above zero next week. This will keep highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another chance for rain looks to come Tuesday into Wednesday with upper shortwaves rippling through the troughing that will be in place overhead. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours with little in the way of cloud cover. No restrictions to visibility are anticipated. Winds will be gusty from the west today at 10-20 knots with gusts towards 25 knots at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Current headlines, Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement both still look good with westerly winds of 10-20 knots with gusts of 20+ knots. Waves are 4.3 feet at the mid lake spotter buoy and 2-4 feet at our nearshore buoys. Conditions are close to criteria and can see the winds and waves still both coming up yet this morning. Beyond this morning we expect conditions to dip below advisory criteria levels for this afternoon through Saturday morning. Winds and waves will be on the increase again for Saturday afternoon/evening when another advisory/statement may be needed north of Grand Haven. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until noon EDT today for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion