181
FXUS63 KGRR 192327
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
627 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazardous Travel Conditions into Early Tuesday Morning
- Additional Rounds of Snow Wednesday into Friday
- Rare and Potentially Near Record-Setting Cold This Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
- Hazardous Travel Conditions into Early Tuesday Morning
A slow downtrend in the hazardous conditions is expected through
tonight, as the worst of the winds and visibility is now past. West
wind lake effect snow will continue along with pockets of
blowing/drifting snow overnight, good for another 0.5 to 3 inches
area-wide, bringing storm totals (not counting drifts) in the
warning area to over 6 inches in many areas, and perhaps up to 14
inches between Holland and Grand Rapids where a narrow belt of 6 to
9 inches fell last night. Totals in central and south central
Michigan are expected to range around 1 to 4 inches.
Overnight, the air near the ground over Central Michigan may cool
and decouple, reducing mixing becoming and a little less windy.
Still, wind chills -10 to -15 F are likely, and a Cold Weather
Advisory continues for interior areas along/north of US-10. Mecosta,
Isabella, Montcalm, and Gratiot may also come close to a cold
advisory.
Lake effect snow will continue overnight, given persisting high
instability off the lake surface and inversion heights staying above
5,000 feet, though most snow production should stay above the DGZ,
limiting flake size. A weak 500 mb shortwave propagating through the
cyclonic synoptic pattern overnight may also throw the lake effect a
bit of a lifeline. With central Michigan interior potentially
decoupling, low level wind convergence and therefore the main focus
for snow will be near and west of US-131, with the exception of a
confluence band that could extend farther east toward the Lansing
area near or south of I-96.
Travel Tue morning will still be slow and slick given the lingering
snow and cold temperatures, but conditions slowly improve during the
day with light snow showers.
- Additional Rounds of Snow Wednesday into Friday
The next wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary will roll
through Wednesday morning, likely making for another challenging
commute. Moisture and lift aloft within the warm air advection
(front end) of this system occurring within about a 5,000 ft thick
DGZ will contribute to potential half inch per hour snowfall rates
leading into the morning commute. A swath of generally 1.5 to 3 inch
totals appears favored by mid day Wednesday. 5 inch totals may be
possible between Grand Haven and Ludington, where confluent SE/SW
flow in the vicinity of the surface low, surface frontogenesis, and
a shallow lake effect convective layer could contribute to enhancing
snowfall rates near the shoreline. But if the track of the low ends
up trending farther south, this scenario would be less of a
possibility. Temperatures starting in the teens will rise into the
mid 20s, perhaps around 30, during the day, making chemical road
treatment more effective.
Lake effect snow showers are then likely to continue late Wed
through Fri as progressively colder 850 mb air within the broad
cyclonic synoptic flow regime.
- Rare and Potentially Near Record-Setting Cold This Weekend
(Issued at 331 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026) ECE guidance has been
repeatedly indicating a rare bout of truly impressive cold coming
our way Friday into the weekend. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) appears
to be a major player in the longwave pattern and surface pressure
anomalies setting up over the northern United States later this week
and weekend. The AO is already negative and is about to drop further
into some impressive territory, potentially around an index of -5.
As the AO gets increasingly negative, we typically get increasingly
colder. ECE probabilities for 850mb temperatures to drop to -30C or
colder are now 80-100% across the U.P. and 60-80% near and north of
US 10. Various deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS have the -30C
isotherm (or colder) pushing through the entire Lower Peninsula.
The ECMWF and GFS push air temperatures at the surface into subzero
territory during the day Friday behind an impressive Arctic front
that sweeps through late Thursday night or early Friday morning.
Both models are indicating wind chill readings getting down to -25
or colder during the day. By Saturday, ECE mean high temperatures
are showing highs around 0F with low temperatures of -10 to -20
across the region. At GRR for example, over 50% of the ECE members
show -20 or colder and nearly 20% of the members show -24 or colder,
which would tie the coldest reading ever recorded at Grand Rapids.
Plenty could change between now and then but given the rarity and
strength of the signal it is important to mention, and temperatures
this cold can cause some significant issues to cold water pipes.
Very cold temperatures are shown by the ECE to continue through the
weekend and into the following week with additional subzero nightly
readings possible. This will be something to keep an eye on with
future forecast updates.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
Improvement will be slow tonight with MKG/AZO/GRR likely to stay
IFR through 12z Tuesday as lake effect snow showers continue.
BTL/LAN/JXN may bounce between MVFR and IFR as heavier showers
track over the terminals. BLSN will diminish over the next few
hours as winds continue to diminish. Leaned twoards MOS guidance
which seems to be handling visbys well in timing out improvements.
Snow showers will continue through late morning/early afternoon
Tuesday before ending. MVFR cigs should persist through the rest
of the TAF period. There are some signals in guidance that suggest
a period of IFR cigs could occur overnight, climatology suggests
this is uncommon in lake effect regimes to have left cigs MVFR
with this package. Wind gusts to 20-25 knots will persist through
the TAF period, highest at MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
Gales on Lake Michigan are diminishing as expected, and the warning
will be transitioned to a small craft advisory no later than 7 PM
today. Heavy freezing spray continues through tonight. Winds will be
a little less of a factor on Tuesday but still enough for some
freezing spray. Hazardous conditions for small craft continue
through the rest of the week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
Tuesday for MIZ038>040.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ039-040-
045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hoving/CAS
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion