733 FXUS63 KGRR 170454 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1154 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers into Saturday morning - Lake Effect Snow continues through Sunday - Bitter Cold and snow to start the week ahead && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 - Snow showers into Saturday morning Surface low will allow periods of snow showers to continue through this evening. Another round of snow is moving onshore and will make its way through southern lower Michigan through the first half of the evening. This will correspond with areas of the best omega especially closer to the lakeshore. A short wave trough will be moving through north of I 96 overnight that will correspond with better QPF, better frontogenetic forcing and slightly warmer temps. As temps get colder, flake size will get smaller. So with colder air south of I 96 have decreased snow amounts slightly. So best snow bands overnight will be north of I 96 with an additional 2 to 5 inches and locally higher amounts possible. 1 to 3 inches expected along and south of the I 96 corridor, especially west of US 131. - Lake Effect Snow continues through Sunday Lake effect snow will continue through the weekend, with highest amounts west of the US 131 corridor, especially the lakeshore. Some areas along the lakeshore could see snow the entire weekend. Snow rates and infiltration inland will increase Saturday evening. Latest Omega shows a weak band through Southern Kent county and a prolific band due to a thermal trough and an area of QPF along the US 10 corridor. Sunday will begin with another break in the snow showers. This is due to a weak negatively tilted upper level ridge that will keep the coldest air to the NW and reduce any instability. That break will be short lived as the arctic front moves southward into the region Sunday evening. The best timing for snow Sunday will be out ahead of the arctic front. While 850mb temps will be -16C range it will correspond with area of strong lift and instability. That will allow for increase snowfall. Once the 850mb air gets below -20C, while there will be snow and reduced visibilities, the type of snow that is generated will become smaller and is more difficult to accumulate. Along those lines, strong wind will correspond at and beyond the front which will see drifting and blowing snow. Lows Sunday into Monday will be in the single digits with an additional 2 to 5 inches of snowfall expected, highest amounts West of US 131. - Bitter Cold and snow to start the week ahead As previously stated an arctic air mass will move over the region Monday and Tuesday. 850mb temps as low as -25 to -30C are possible Monday. Daytime temperatures will uncharacteristically drop as the day continues with lows Tuesday morning around 0F. The other concern with these low temps will be corresponding winds. The signal for a strong gradient remains. Winds of 15 to 25 with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible Monday. While highest winds will be along the lakeshore, widespread gusty winds across the lower peninsula are expected. The persistent wind will drop wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning in the -10 to -20 range. Have held off on any watches for now but a cold weather advsy will probably be needed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 Radar shows an area of 25-35 dbz echos near MKG/GRR. This corresponds to 1/2 mile visibility and perhaps brief periods of 1/4 mile visibility. This area of snow will persist for a couple of hours before moving northeast. The southern terminals will see the lower visibility band move east with fairly rapid improvement around 20z. Another surge of arctic air will move over the lake late tonight and produce another round of lake effect snow and lower visibilities Saturday morning, mostly at GRR/MKG, but perhaps clipping AZO...although that is less certain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 Aviation weather conditions are highly variable tonight with convective type snow showers moving through Southwest Lower Michigan. There are areas of VFR along with snow showers that are producing IFR ceilings and visibilities. We feel as we move through the overnight hours, the snow showers will begin to concentrate north of the TAF sites up towards LDM. Many of the TAF sites will trend towards VFR tonight before returning to widespread MVFR ceilings on Saturday. A burst of snow showers is expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening and this activity will largely affect MKG, GRR and AZO. Winds will be gusty from the southwest much of this TAF period in the 10-20 knot range with some higher gusts. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037-038- 043-044-050-056-057-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion