383 FXUS63 KGRR 201053 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 653 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional rain mainly far south through today - Small chance of residual showers south for Monday and Tuesday - Seasonable and mainly dry Wednesday and beyond && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - Additional rain mainly far south through today We have cancelled the Flood Watch a few hours early this morning. We have seen quite a bit longer of a break of the steady and heavier rain than expected Saturday afternoon through the current time. It seems that the area of showers/storms that moved through Saturday morning, pushed the elevated baroclinic zone/front aloft a bit further south. The low level jet has taken time to re-establish itself, which it is now doing to our SW. It is likely that the band of rain completely SSW of the forecast area early this morning could sneak up to our far SW corner as the next wave pushes it north just a little bit. Consensus from new model guidance and mean amounts show that far SW Van Buren could see an inch or so of rain today, with lesser amounts to the NE. This area did not see the heavier amounts yesterday, as they were a little further north. The bottom line is we are not expecting any areas to see 4-5 inches total from this that was the impetus for the Watch. It may take much of the day for the rain to push south of the area once it moves in, but all areas should be dry by sunset tonight. - Small chance of residual showers south for Monday and Tuesday The boundary that has been the focus of the rain the last few days is expected to be pushed further south, and will be much less of an influence on the area as compared to the last couple of days. The upper low that is in charge of the synoptic pattern over the region is showing signs over having less of an influence on the weather for Southern Lower, resulting in lower chances of rain for only the southern areas through Tuesday. This trend is the result of the upper low complex showing more likelihood that it rotates further south, and has much less of a direct influence on our weather as a stronger high pushes it south away from the area. - Seasonable and mainly dry Wednesday and beyond The models are in good agreement (for now) that the upper low will move far enough away by Thursday that we get under the influence of a stronger long wave ridge that slowly builds toward the area. This will get held up by stronger systems to our west and east. We will start out cool with highs barely in the 60s. Building heights and a flow of warmer temperatures eventually from the south will push max temps back up in the 70s for the latter half of the area with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 We continue to see the LIFR -VLIFR conditions in place for mainly ceilings, but some visibilities also. Rain shield has now moved in over most of the terminals, except KMKG. This rain will hold for a few hours at KGRR and KLAN, and the I-94 for most of the day. The low level flow from the NE will try to improve the ceilings slowly as drier air moves in and there is some diurnal lifting. The northern terminals will see this sooner than the southern terminals. We do expect to see most, if not all sites slowly become VFR by mid evening. Clouds may clear for the I-96 terminals tonight, while the clouds hold for the I-94 corridor. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 We will be issuing a Small Craft Advisory for the northern two marine zones for today and tonight. We will be holding off on a Beach Hazards statements due to more of an offshore flow and the weather preventing it from being a good beach day this late in the season. Strongest winds behind the departing system will be across northern areas beginning later this morning, and then waves coming down overnight. The southern areas will see winds near criteria, but it is marginal considering they will be completely blowing offshore. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion