535 FXUS63 KGRR 221033 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 633 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather through most of Sat with slowly increasing temps - Next chances of rain Sat night through Mon && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 - Dry weather through most of Sat with slowly increasing temps The upper trough that brought the cold front through the area yesterday remains over the area this morning. However the trough axis has shifted east of the area, putting the area under confluent flow aloft. This is leading to increasing subsidence and high pressure in the lower levels. This pattern holds through Friday, and only slowly breaks down on Saturday. Temperatures aloft at 850 mb have dropped down to around +7C behind the cold front and under the cold pool aloft. These temperatures aloft will support max temps in the mid 70s today. We will see them slowly recover through Saturday when the 850 mb temps warm to around +16-17C, helping to bring warm air up near 90F back to the area. Dew points will slowly creep up over the area during this time frame also. - Next chances of rain Sat night through Mon The confluent flow aloft, and sfc ridging will move sufficiently out of the area by Saturday night. This will allow a short wave to spill over the large scale ridge axis, and additional short wave activity will be possible. Even though the short wave activity will pick up next Sunday and Monday, low level moisture return is somewhat limited. The low level flow ahead of the short wave is not directly from the Gulf. Evapotranspiration from the corn fields in Iowa and Illinois will help increase the moisture some. This has the potential to be rounds of storms affecting the area as these waves will be riding the heat dome to our west. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 633 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Just about all of the stratocumulus clouds that were around last evening have moved out of the area or dissipated. Any that are left are VFR and mostly scattered or less in coverage. We will see high-based diurnal cumulus development by early afternoon. We will also see some wind gusts up to 22 knots or so develop inland as we mix a bit of wind down. Diurnal cumulus will diminish quickly toward sunset, and allow for clear skies once again. Winds will diminish, and go light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 We will maintain the Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements as is this morning for today. The strongest of the winds have moved by the area, but winds remain high enough to continue generating higher waves with colder air coming in over the warmer lake. The expiration time of late this evening looks very good. After the current headlines, the winds and waves will remain well below headline thresholds with high pressure coming in. It looks like it will take until later Saturday for stronger winds and building waves to possibly require headlines. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion