514 FXUS63 KGRR 230449 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1149 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake Effect Snow Showers Tonight into tomorrow - Bitterly Cold Temperatures through Saturday - More Snow Possible Sunday into Early Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 - Lake Effect Snow Showers Tonight into tomorrow Lake effect snow continues tonight into tomorrow with strong westerly to northwesterly flow overnight. The winds will remain gusty from the US 131 corridor westward. Those gusty winds along with lake effect snow showers could drop visibilities down to 1/4 mile at times. Strongest lake effect bands are expected tonight. These visibilities and snowfall along with drifting and blowing snow will cause impacts the evening and morning commutes Snow amounts will vary due to the strong winds. Expect amounts of 1 to 4 inches of snowfall along and west of the US 131 corridor. Higher amounts are possible in the northwest region, especially in the Ludington and Hart area. Snowfall ratios will vary but fluffy to very fluffy snow is expected. . The cold air aloft moving overhead will make very fine snow that will become could cause very slick roadways. - Bitterly Cold Temperatures through Saturday The high temperatures for the day have already occurred and temperatures will continue to drop through tonight and tomorrow into Saturday morning. The strong gusty winds along with the dropping temperatures will allow for wind chills to drop in the -20 to -30 range. This event is really two fold. The frigid, arctic air mass moves over the region with 850mb temps around -30. Considering the latest soundings have the area mixing to the 850mb level, the gusty winds will mix down that frigid air so wind chills along the north of the I 96 corridor could be in the -20 to -30 range tomorrow morning. The winds will slacken Friday evening as the high settles over the area Friday night into Saturday. While that will take away the lake effect and blowing snow threat, the colder air will settle over the region into saturday morning. the EC global ensembles, along the with the short range CAMS have all trended colder. SO based on these trends and the fact that we will have a clearing sky and a fresh snowpack, the surface temperatures could drop to -20 in some locations. For more about local records please look at the climate section below. When temperatures get this cold it also does interesting things to the river. For discussion about this please look at the hydro section below. - More Snow Possible Sunday into Early Next Week The arctic air mass will move off to the east and our temperatures will improve into the teens Sunday into next week with overnight lows in the low single digits. The major winter storm that will be affecting the central US could bring some bands of snow Sunday night into Monday. Not expecting a major snow at this point but the southern US 127 corridor could see some snow showers Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Lake effect snow showers continue to affect all of the terminals this evening. The worst conditions are at the northern terminals with the WSW flow off of the lake. We are going to see the heavier bands shift south and west as the flow becomes from the NNW through the next few hours. This will place the heaviest snow showers at KMKG and KAZO for a few hours. There are likely to be a few snow showers inland during the day. The bigger impact is likely to be BLSN with the gusty winds and fresh and dry snow. The strongest winds will be at KMKG where IFR is likely much of the day, with MVFR inland where winds are not as strong. Winds will diminish late this afternoon, which will diminish the blowing snow, and much of the snow shower activity should shift to right at the shoreline or just offshore. Inland areas are likely to clear out as this takes place. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Have extended the gale into Friday afternoon. Dangerous gale and heavy freezing spray conditions will continue through today and into tomorrow. Freezing spray will last even longer thanks to bitterly cold air crossing Lake Michigan. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Bitterly cold temperatures will continue to increase the ice forming on our rivers. Thankfully, most of our typical trouble spots for ice jams are already mostly or completely frozen over. However, river ice is notoriously unpredictable, and the rarity of this upcoming cold snap will likely create some minor ice jam issues in places that don`t typically have to deal with river ice. For example, the last time it was this cold (2019) the Muskegon River had some ice jam issues at both Bridgeton and Newaygo, and there are already some signs that something similar could be happening again this year. The bottom line is that when we expect very unusual cold conditions, it`s not unreasonable to expect some very unusual river ice issues somewhere. Water levels around ice jams can go up/down much faster than usual, so anyone living near a river should pay extra attention to water levels over the next few days and have a plan to respond if conditions change quickly. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 425 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Forecast low temperatures on 1/24 and associated records: GRR -17 (record -19 in 1948) LAN -13 (record -22 in 1884) MKG -6 (record -5 in 1970) BIV -10 (record -12 in 1948) AZO -13 (record -13 in 1963) BTL -15 (record -13 in 1948) Forecast high temperatures on 1/24 and associated record coldest highs: GRR 8 (record 6 in 1904) LAN 8 (record 5 in 1963) MKG 11 (record 7 in 1897) BIV 9 (record 11 1987) AZO 8 (record 5 in 1963) BTL 8 (record 4 in 1963) Some computer model guidance (ie. ECE/ECMWF/HRRR) supports pockets of -20 or colder on Saturday. If that occurs, it would be the first time since January 1994 that those temperatures would be recorded in this region. The following temperatures are the coldest ever recorded at our long term climate sites: GRR -24 (2/13/1899 and 2/14/1899) LAN -37 (2/2/1868) MKG -30 (2/11/1899) BIV -24 (2/1/1918) AZO -22 (2/5/1918 and 2/10/1912) BTL -24 (2/12/1899) && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ037-038-043- 044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059. Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for MIZ064>067- 071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Ceru HYDROLOGY...AMD CLIMATE...Hoving

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion