185
FXUS63 KGRR 030828
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
328 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Round of Light Snow Today into Tonight
- Another Round of Snow Sunday Night into Monday
- Trending Warmer with Rain Chances Tuesday into Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026
- Round of Light Snow Today into Tonight
Within the northwest flow a shortwave trough will swing through
the Great Lakes Region bringing a round of light snow to the area.
The better moisture and lift will be focused along the lakeshore
and northern portions of the forecast area but all of west
Michigan could see some flakes today. Snowfall amounts will be
under an inch for most with little to no accumulation along the
I-94 corridor. The best chances (50 percent) to see an inch or
more will be in Mason and Oceana Counties. Most of the snow will
end by this evening with some lingering showers along the
lakeshore.
- Another Round of Snow Sunday Night into Monday
Better lift with a coupled left exit right entrance region of the
upper level jet, low level jet convergence, warm air advection and
positive vorticity advection move in for Sunday night into early
Monday morning. This will give us another quick shot of
accumulating snow with accumulations focused more north of I-96.
Probabilities of an inch or more start around 20 percent along the
I-96 corridor and increase toward 80 percent along US-10. Areas
along and north of US-10 also have a 50 to 70 percent chance of 2
inches or more. The one thing we`ll need to monitor as we head
into Monday morning will be how quickly the low levels dry out
before we lose cloud ice. If we remain saturated there will be a
concern for freezing drizzle resulting in a light glaze of ice.
- Trending Warmer with Rain Chances Tuesday into Friday
Before the upper level flow turns southwesterly, another shortwave
moves through Tuesday. Ahead of the shortwave we`ll see warm air
and moisture advection in the low levels. GFS soundings are
already showing a signal for fog to develop Monday night into
Tuesday morning before rain chances (20 to 30 percent) move in.
Tuesday morning will be another period we need to monitor for
freezing rain. Temperatures will initially be below freezing
Tuesday morning and if the rain starts early enough a light
glazing of ice is possible. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in
the mid 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday`s temperatures will be similar to Tuesday before the
southwesterly flow and warm air advection ramp up for Thursday
into Friday where highs in the 40s to low 50s are expected. Timing
looks better for the afternoon into Thursday night for rain (40-60
percent chance) with showers lingering into Friday before the
trough moves through bringing colder air and snow for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
No significant changes for this forecast iteration. High
probability (90 percent) for flight categories to remain better
than IFR through 12Z. As noted previously, we expect a chance for
lake effect clouds and possible light snow beginning shortly
after 12Z with the main concern being a decrease in ceilings to
below fuel alternate thresholds of 2000 feet AGL. This is far from
certain, however, so did not deviate from inherited PROB30s that
account for this.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...TJT
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
