625
FXUS63 KGRR 172335
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
635 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake Effect Snow Showers and Slick Roads Tonight
- Impactful Snow and Blowing Snow Sunday Evening Through Monday
- Subzero Wind Chills Monday/Tuesday, Then More Snow Midweek
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026
- Lake Effect Snow Showers and Slick Roads Tonight
Lake effect snow showers amid WSW flow increased earlier today and
are helping maintain slick road conditions particularly in
Muskegon, Ottawa, and Kent counties. These snow showers are aided
by upstream low-level moisture in the DGZ which is producing snow
over southern Wisconsin, along with augmented lift from 925-850
mb frontogenesis, as a tongue of relatively colder 850 air is
advecting through northern Illinois, Indiana, and southern
Michigan.
Short term guidance favors an uptick in these snow showers this
evening where both the lake effect and fgen-related lift is
maximized, followed by a period of more concentrated but shifting
heavier snow bands overnight in proximity to a sharp surface
trough now moving south from northern Lake Michigan toward western
Lower Michigan. As such, expecting an additional 2 to locally 5
inches over most areas west of US-131 through daybreak Sunday,
along with continued slick roads.
- Impactful Snow and Blowing Snow Sunday Evening Through Monday
Snow intensity midday Sunday should be a little subdued prior to
the arrival of the next Clipper-style low during the evening.
Between about 4 pm and 10 pm Sun, southwest wind lake effect
mostly within the DGZ and midlevel snow production above the DGZ
will ramp up, followed by lake effect continuing as strengthening
winds become more west then northwest with Arctic air on Monday.
Upstream 850 mb air is favored to be around -20 to -23 C on Monday
with lake induced convection climbing above 10 kft. Temperatures
in the teens, powdery snow, and winds gusting 30-35 mph on Monday
will create blowing snow and travel difficulty not just within the
Lake Michigan adjacent counties (where snow totals should be
greater) but also well inland. Amounts of 4 to 6 inches (with
higher drifts) are possible near/west of US-131, and 1 to 3 are
possible toward Mid Michigan.
- Subzero Wind Chills Monday/Tuesday, Then More Snow Midweek
Lighter lake effect snow showers continue Monday night and
Tuesday. The core of coldest air will move through Monday night.
Tuesday morning lows are expected to be in the single digits with
wind chills -5 to -15 F.
Temperatures warm up into the balmy 20s on Wednesday before
dropping back into the teens Wed night and Thursday. The next
clipper system and following lake effect snow during that time
will be good for another few inches along with the increasingly
familiar travel challenges.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026
Lake effect snow showers increase in intensity this evening with
IFR likely at MKG and GRR. Southwest flow keeps the worst of the
showers north of the other terminals keeping visby restrictions
non-prevailing. The passage of a surface trough will help showers
push into AZO/BTL after 06z. Localized heavy banding will set up
bringing the potential for IFR and lower conditions, however
confidence in where banding sets up is low. Best chance appears to
be across MKG/GRR. Lower cigs also spread inland behind this
feature bringing widespread MVFR cigs to the terminals. Shower
intensity and coverage diminishes late Sunday morning with
impacts mainly lingering at MKG. Widespread snow arrives from the
west mid Sunday afternoon bringing IFR and lower visbys from west
to east through the evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026
Winds and waves hazardous for small craft persist through Sunday.
West-northwest gales and heavy freezing spray are possible early
Monday morning and through the day.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-071.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
