490
FXUS63 KGRR 281043
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
643 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and Trending Warmer into Next Week
- Rain and Thunderstorms Monday Night into Tuesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026
- Dry and Trending Warmer into Next Week
Ongoing light snow showers will gradually taper off by 5am.
Otherwise dry conditions are expected as pressure heights rise
today. Temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday with
highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Warm air advection will bring
mostly cloudy skies to the area this afternoon and evening.
Southwest winds this afternoon will continue to advect warm air to
the area into next week with temperatures warming into the 50s on
Sunday and 60s on Monday.
- Rain and Thunderstorms Monday Night into Tuesday
Attention then turns to Monday night into Tuesday as moisture and
lift better line up. Upper level divergence will be present on the
south edge of the upper level jet. The low level jet will also be
in play with warm air advection and moisture advection.
Precipitable water values will gradually build to around 1.25
inches. Instability will also be increasing with 500 to 1000 J/kg
by Tuesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the coverage
Monday night and how long it may linger into Tuesday. Depending on
how the first round plays out along with the timing of the front
Tuesday will impact our severe potential Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Overall several models (CSU, NSSL, and NCARs AI- NWP
forecasts) highlight the probability for severe thunderstorms over
western Michigan. We`ll continue to monitor trends and update the
forecast as timing and hazards become clearer.
Winds Tuesday also could be quite breezy with the stronger winds
aloft. Warm air advection at the surface will provide suitable
lapse rates for gusts aloft to mix down. ECMWF probabilities of
40 mph gusts or greater are 50 to 80 percent across much of the
area. After Tuesday dry conditions move in for Wednesday with
temperatures in the 40s. Depending on the low track Thursday into
Friday, rain may impact portions of the area, with the best
chances (50 percent) along and south of I-94.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the day today. Northwest winds
will shift to the southwest this afternoon. BKN ceilings around
13000 feet are expected to move in this evening. Tonight the low
level jet will result in low level wind shear around 6Z continuing
into Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Northwest winds will gradually weaken resulting in lower wave
heights by the late afternoon. Winds shift to the southwest this
afternoon and build into Saturday night. Another Small Craft
Advisory will be needed tonight into Sunday due to wind gusts
approaching 25 knots and wave heights 3 to 6 feet. Winds will
remain from the southwest until a front moves through Tuesday.
Rain and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front Monday
night into Tuesday along with Small Craft Advisory conditions.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
