403
FXUS63 KGRR 270630
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
230 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder, Quick Round of Light Snow Tonight
- Warming Back Up with Multiple Chances for Rain
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
- Colder, Quick Round of Light Snow Tonight
Temperatures have fallen behind the front and will drop into the
20s this morning. Highs today will only be in the 30s with some
spots hitting 40. Tonight temperatures fall into the teens and 20s
and then rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Saturday.
With the colder temperatures snow chances return. The shortwave
trough currently over North Dakota will move in during the late
afternoon/early evening toward Ludington and exit the area late
tonight. This is currently causing some light snow to fall in
North Dakota and expect the same to occur here. Snow/flurries
could make it as far south as the I-94 corridor, but higher
confidence will be along and north of I-96. A dusting of snow is
possible with areas north of US-10 potentially seeing around a
half inch. Probabilities of an inch or more are low (less than 20
percent).
- Warming Back Up with Multiple Chances for Rain
As mentioned in previous discussions, the long range ensembles
show an active pattern next week. We switch to more troughing to
the west and ridging to the east across the CONUS. Chances for
rain increase Monday night within the southwest flow and warm air
advection. A series of shortwave troughs will move through
bringing chances (40 to 70 percent) for rain and thunderstorms
Monday night through Thursday night. Cluster analysis shows some
variations in timing and strength of the troughs as they move
through along with surface low placement. Probabilities of an inch
or more of rain over a 24 hour period are low (20 percent), but
multiple days of rain may add up to 1.5 to 2.5 inches across the
area as shown by the WPC precipitation forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Ceilings will gradually improve this morning. GRR may bounce
between VFR and MVFR early this morning as MVFR ceilings are just
east of the area. Winds will continue from the north before
becoming more northwesterly this afternoon. A quick dusting of
light snow is possible largely north of the terminals between 00Z
and 06Z tonight. Have included a PROB30 group for MKG, GRR, and
LAN with the light snow chances. If the light snow occurs expect
ceilings to drop briefly to MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue due to winds and waves.
Winds will subside this morning, but 4 foot waves linger north of
Whitehall and south of South Haven. Adjustments to the Small Craft
Advisory may be needed for these areas.
Northwest winds pick up tonight and may bring a period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions late tonight into early Saturday
morning. Winds become southwesterly Saturday with warming
temperatures. There is a chance for winds and waves to hit Small
Craft Advisory criteria late Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
