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FXUS63 KGRR 281145
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
645 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing Rain North Today
- Snow/Wind Tonight and Monday
- Light Snow Tuesday Night/Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
- Freezing Rain North Today
Overrunning pattern with warm advection showers this morning will
result in some icing across the northeast interior forecast area.
Fortunately, QPF is expected to be light the next few hours.
Temperatures and dew points are forecast to get above 0C by noon
so the threat should be ending shortly after. Current forecast ice
amounts are around a tenth of an inch for parts of the advisory
area, primarily in the higher elevations of Osceola and Clare
Counties.
- Snow/Wind Tonight and Monday
A 500 MB cut off low deepening as it moves across the Great Lakes
in a strongly amplified flow regime is attended by a surface low
tracking through the center of the forecast area this evening. The
low deepens about 15 mb between this afternoon and Monday morning
with its strong pressure gradient forcing an isallobaric response.
Model cross sections of winds show 50 knots in the mixing layer on
Monday in the cold advection, and wind gusts along Lake Michigan
could top 60 mph. Further inland, there could be some gusts
nearly that strong as well but winds will generally be in the 40
to 50 mph range on Monday.
As the low tracks through Central Lower Michigan during the
afternoon, there could be a rumble of thunder in low-topped
convection in the warm sector south of the low center, generally
along and south of I-94. Colder air arrives on the back side of
the low by midnight and lake-enhanced snow will overspread the
forecast area early Monday, continuing into the evening before
inversion heights drop below 5 kft Monday night as the low pulls
away. Snow and blowing snow could disrupt travel during this time,
especially west of US-131.
- Light Snow Tuesday Night/Wednesday
Fast northwest flow will bring a clipper low on Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but model trends are for this low and shortwave trough
to be weaker and sheared-out with light lake effect snow
persisting into Wednesday and possibly Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
Low clouds will persist through much of today with LIFR
conditions into the afternoon. There could be a slow improvement
this afternoon as rain moves through but even then IFR conditions
should prevail. Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon but
were left out of the forecast for now. LLWS is also possible this
afternoon and overnight.
Rain changes to snow by 06Z with areas of blowing snow late
tonight. Surface winds will gust over 30 knots after midnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
No changes to the Storm Warning. Winds of storm force are expected
after midnight and lasting into early Tuesday. Gales will continue
after that into Wednesday along with freezing spray.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
MIZ038>040-044>046.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
MARINE...Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
