980
FXUS63 KGRR 111111
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
711 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing rain threat continues across Central Lower Michigan
- Clipper to bring swath of snow to the area Thur Night/Friday
- Impactful weather expected with system over the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
- Freezing rain threat continues across Central Lower Michigan
A wave of low pressure situated over Missouri this morning will
work northeast along the frontal boundary which stretches
northeast into Southern Lower Michigan. We will see occasional
rain showers spread across much of the area with wintry
precipitation expected across Central Lower Michigan. See the
hydro section below for details on additional rainfall. Off to the
north however colder air is in place which will result in the
potential for freezing rain up along U.S. 10. We are maintaining
the Winter Weather Advisory as it stands now for Lake, Osceola and
Clare counties. Surface air temperatures will be the coldest in
these three counties near or slightly below the freezing mark.
Elsewhere, the temperatures will be slightly warmer and we are
expecting rain. This afternoon as the low works to the east we
should see a rain to snow scenario with little in the way of
accumulation as the precipitation winds down behind the departing
low.
- Clipper to bring swath of snow to the area Thur Night/Friday
An Alberta clipper will pass through northern portions of the
state of Michigan Thursday night into Friday. Mainly rain is
expected across southern portions of the forecast area, from I-96
to the south. To the north however across Central Lower Michigan
will see see some warm air advection snow on the leading side of
the system followed by some wrap around snow as the system
departs. Accumulating snow looks likely across Central Lower
Michigan, especially on the high ground from Lake County east
through Osceola into Clare County. Amounts may be advisory worthy
from Baldwin east to Harrison and Clare.
- Impactful weather expected with system over the weekend
Another strong system is forecast to move into and through the
area over the weekend. The operational GFS and ECWMF differ on the
path which will have ramification in precipitation type and
amounts. The GFS has a further south track of the system through
portions of Northern Indiana and Ohio while the ECWMF takes the
low more on a northeast track right through the CWA. The GFS would
keep places like Central Lower mainly snow, while the ECMWF would
result into precipitation changing to all rain for a time on
Sunday. Obviously lower confidence at this range of the forecast
and we will be watching this system carefully. If the GFS verifies
a healthy swath of significant snow would fall across Central
Lower Michigan.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 711 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
IFR conditions will be prevalent this morning as low pressure
moves by to our south. Ceilings will be below 1,000 feet into the
afternoon at least to 18z or so. As the system moves by to the
east ceilings and visibilities will improve. VFR weather will
develop after dark. Winds will increase out of the west and
northwest today of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Much of the area saw 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. There was a swath of much heavier
rain though from Grand Haven northeast through Grand Rapids to
Stanton and Alma. In this zone 1.00 to 2.00+ inches of rain fell.
Flooding was noted in urban areas like Grand Rapids. The short
term motorist/travel impact of the event is over and we now shift
into the river portion of the event. First though, another wave of
precipitation will work through the area today as rain moves
northeast out of Missouri and through Lower Michigan today.
Additional rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is expected from
I-96 to the south with the potential for a half to one inch in the
same zone. So, the area that had less rain last night will fill in
with more rain today. Fairly widespread 1.00 to 2.00 inch totals
will be common by this afternoon. We will maintain the Flood Watch
given the anticipated wave of additional rain. We expect to issue
some river flood warnings today as new forecasts are generated
from the North Central River Forecast Center. These forecasts will
account for both rain that has already fallen and additional rain
that is expected today. The Grand and Kalamazoo river basins will
be most affected.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
MIZ038>040.
Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ050>052-056>059-
064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
