871
FXUS63 KGRR 021912
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
312 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued dry through Thursday
- Chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday
- Warm weather continues
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026
- Continued dry through Thursday
High pressure will remain sprawled across the area the next day or
two which will keep conditions dry. There is a high confidence in
dry weather into Thursday evening. All ensembles are dry through
Thursday afternoon. Not out of the question to see some rain
develop Thursday night as upstream convection begins to close in
from the northwest.
- Chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday
A stationary front will sag into the area from the north on Friday
and move through the area as a cold front on Saturday and Saturday
night. The front will get a push on Saturday from a couple of
upstream shortwave troughs that phase over the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest. A good surge of moisture comes back into the
Great Lakes region ahead of the front with mid 60s dew points at
the surface. PWAT values will reach 1.75 inches per the models so
there will be deeper moisture to work with. Given the upper wave
moving through and stronger wind fields as shown by the GFS (30+
knots at 850mb and near 50 knots at 500mb), severe weather is
certainly a possibility. The time frames of concern will be Friday
evening and again Saturday afternoon. Friday evening looks like
all of the CWA is in play for a chance at severe weather and
Saturday afternoon looks like the south half of the area.
- Warm weather continues
Normal highs this time of year are in the middle to upper 70s.
Normal lows are in the lower to middle 50s. We expect to be above
normal the next 7 days. We are expecting highs in the 80s into the
middle of next week and lows beginning to move into the 60s. So,
it will feel much like summer. 850mb temperatures stay fairly
steady through the period in the middle teens C which lends
credence to the forecast. It will certainly feel like summer from
Friday through Sunday when dew point temperatures climb into the
60s making it feel on the muggy side. Our current dew point this
afternoon at 300pm for reference is 39F. Friday and Saturday we
will likely have dew points around 65F which will be a noticeable
change.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026
VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. We are not anticipating
any restrictions to visibility and little in the way of clouds. A
few high based cumulus clouds are occurring this afternoon and
there are a few patches of cirrus, but in large part we are clear.
That will continue to be the case tonight into Wednesday with
sprawling high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region.
Winds will generally be northeast to east this afternoon at 5 to
15 knots. The exception will be MKG where a lake breeze will shift
winds to the north and northwest after 20z and especially 22z.
Winds will become light and variable after about 02z this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026
High pressure will insure that we see another 24 hours of light
winds and limited waves on Lake Michigan. Vertical profiles of
wind near the lake show 10 knots or less of wind between this
afternoon and Wednesday evening. So the quiescent conditions will
continue through then. Wednesday night the high slips away to the
east and return flow around the backside of the high commences.
Winds will steadily ramp up from Thursday into Friday with 20-30
knot winds likely by Friday out of the southwest. Bottom line sub
advisory conditions are expected tonight through at least Thursday
morning. Thursday night into Friday we are most likely look at
Small Craft Conditions. We could flirt with gales Friday evening.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
