967
FXUS63 KGRR 071216
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
716 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Early morning fog today
- Warmer with occasional rain Thursday into Friday
- Cooling back towards normal with snow showers this weekend
- Weather to remain unsettled into early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026
- Early morning fog today
First order of business is to look at the fog and decide whether
or not its worthy of a headline this morning. As of 315am we have
3 ob sites that are at 1/4 mile visibility, they are Sparta,
Ionia and Battle Creek. 3 scattered ob sites at 1/4 mile is not
enough to warrant a headline now and the fact that the number of
ob sites has not increased in the last few hours also aides that
decision. Looking at BUFKIT overviews for this morning we have 20
knots of wind at 1,000 feet and 10 knots almost all the way to
the surface. This is probably the more important factor as the
wind will promote mixing and likely not allow the 1/4
visibilities to become expansive. Guidance shows visibilities
trending up a bit after sunrise. Bottom line...no fog headline for
now, but we will be monitoring. NBM hourly guidance shows the
chance of LIFR visibilities (less than 1 mile) steadily going
down hour by hour as we head through the rest of the night and
into the daylight hours.
- Warmer with occasional rain Thursday into Friday
We continue to expect warmer weather as we head into Thursday and
Friday with a surface low moving through the area. Deep southwest
flow will be occuring with this system which will surge 50s
temperatures into the area. The trends in the track of the low
have been further to the west which puts us squarely in the warm
sector. As such, our temperatures have trended up. We will likely
see some mid 50s for highs on Thursday in far Southwest Lower
Michigan (LWA) and possibly upper 50s in South Central Lower
Michigan (JXN) on Friday. Record highs for this time of year are
in the upper 50s to around 60 so this is certainly anomalous
warmth.
We are looking at periods of rain from Thursday into Friday, but
the heaviest rain may fall near and to the west of the track of
the low which looks to be to our west over Wisconsin. Current WPC
guidance shows 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain as the most likely
range across our forecast area with the heaviest being up towards
Ludington. The low may pass near Ludington as it moves northeast.
PWAT values with this system are forecast to eclipse 1 inch (max
near 1.1 inches). Looking at sounding climatology for the day at
DTX, this would be the new daily max. So, both anomalous warmth
and moisture are expected. Surface dew points surge to near 55f
Thursday night ahead of the cold front. Bottom line in terms of
impacts...we are going to lose the remainder of the snow pack and
we will see area rivers rising within bank. No significant
flooding is expected though.
- Cooling back towards normal with snow showers this weekend
This weekend a plains shortwave will lead to a digging upper
trough over the Great Lakes region. 850mb temperatures cool to
around -12C which is cold enough for lake effect snow production
with lake temperatures around +3C to +4C. We are looking at a rain
showers transitioning to snow showers scenario as we move through
the weekend. Not out of the realm to see some light accumulations
of snow both from synoptic scale features (surface low moving
through the region) as well as mesoscale lake effect drivers.
- Weather to remain unsettled into early next week
850mb temperatures moderate a bit into early next week, but a
parade of shortwaves is forecast in northwest flow. So, we will
likely see some scattered rain and snow showers during this time
frame which is what we have in the forecast. Highs look to be
slightly above normal for this time of year in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 716 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026
Widespread low clouds and fog are in place to start the 12z to 12z
TAF period. The low clouds/fog are a result of significant low
level moisture due to a melting snowpack and recent rain. LIFR
conditions are dominant at 12z, but we should see a slow
improvement today. Ceilings will trend to IFR this afternoon and
visibility will do the same. Increasing wind tonight from the
southwest will act to at least attempt to scour out the low clouds
and fog. Guidance has conditions tonight trending towards MVFR and
even VFR in the 06z-12z time frame. So, while conditions are poor
at the present time, trends are in the favor of better aviation
weather as we head into the afternoon and especially tonight.
Winds today from the west at 5-10 knots will back to the south
tonight at the same speed.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
