578
FXUS63 KGRR 201157
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy Friday, Rain to Snow Showers
- Colder With Snow Over the Weekend
- Clipper System Mid Week Brings Wintry Mix
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
- Windy Friday, Rain to Snow Showers
Wind Advisory for gusts around 45 mph near and south of Grand
Haven, Grand Rapids, Ionia, and Saint Johns looks good. The
morning will be breezy with southwest gusts over 30 mph, but the
west-southwest peak gusts around 45 will probably occur during
the afternoon. A few gusts to 50 mph can`t be ruled out, as some
models indicate the presence of over 45 knots in the mixing layer
around 1,000 feet on the south side of the surface low pressure
system. Clouds and precipitation would tend to temper the surface
wind gust threat, though the second shot of cold air advection
occurring during the afternoon may overcome that. Muskegon,
Montcalm, and Gratiot counties will be on the margins of the 45
mph wind threat, though their time frame of concern would be
between 3 pm and 7 pm. To the north toward US-10, underneath the
warm-secluded surface low, winds will hardly be a concern.
Aside from the wind, it will also be a pretty raw day with drizzly
rain showers, low clouds, and temperatures falling below 40,
eventually giving way to snow showers by mid afternoon into
evening from south to north. Can`t rule out slick spots in
portions of West Michigan late in the evening, especially if
temperatures err closer to the 10th percentile of NBM, which is
closer to the consensus of short-term models, near freezing. Snow
may linger over US-10 later in the night into Saturday morning,
which is then where the potential for slick spots will shift.
- Colder With Snow Over the Weekend
Our taste of spring ends with temperatures in the 20s to 30s over
the weekend. Slick spots on roads do seem possible again Saturday
night into Sunday. The upper level trough will set up over the
region with northwest flow bringing the colder air, along with a
shortwave trough that will provide some lift for snow showers
across the area. The best chances are Saturday night into Sunday
as 850mb temperatures fall to around -13C. Lake temperatures are
around 3C resulting in delta T`s in the mid teens so expect some
light lake effect snow to be present mainly along the lakeshore to
US-131. 24 hour probabilities of 2 inches or more are low the the
highest probabilities of 30 percent in far southwest Michigan
during the Saturday night through Sunday time frame.
- Clipper System Mid Week Brings Wintry Mix
Overall mostly dry conditions are expected with high temperatures
in the 30s to 40s through next week. Our coldest temperatures are
expected for Tuesday morning where lows could drop into the mid
teens to single digits from south to north.
A clipper system is expected mid week. Clusters show variations
in the timing and strength of the quick moving system, but there
is a signal for some accumulating snow mainly toward central
Michigan with a 30 to 40 percent chance of 2 inches or more of
snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. A transition to rain is
possible during the day Wednesday as temperatures warm, with the
best chances of this occuring south of I-96.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 657 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
Hard to see anything better than just temporary improvements in
ceiling/visibility today. Mostly expecting category to waver
between low IFR and low MVFR. Low pressure system tracking across
Lake Michigan and over Central Michigan has plenty of moisture
and clouds in the lower atmosphere. Will frequently be drizzly or
rain/snow mix today with icing conditions in the clouds. Winds
shifting southwest this morning and becoming increasingly gusty to
40 knots this afternoon. Less wind expected near LDM-RQB-MOP but
plenty of low ceilings.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MIZ056>059-064>067-
071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS/RAH
AVIATION...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
