948
FXUS63 KGRR 080746
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
246 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry and mild through Tuesday
- Much cooler and unsettled weather beginning Wed and beyond
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
- Mainly dry and mild through Tuesday
Now that the upper low late last week has moved out of the area, we
are back to our dry and mild El Nino fall for a few days. More
specifically, the northern branch of the upper jet has lifted north
again, and will mostly be a non-issue through Tuesday.
We are just close enough the the upper jet that a fairly strong
upper wave embedded in it will try to just clip our northern
counties this afternoon, and bring a weak front through all of the
area. A sprinkle or light shower can not be ruled out up north, but
the moisture over the area is quite dry to start with, with no
significant moisture advection expected. We are likely to see some
clouds develop along the front with some help from the lake this
morning. Additional clouds will stream in behind the wave tonight
from the north, and some lake clouds are likely too. This cloud
cover will be too shallow to do much more than the clouds.
A ridge moves by on Monday which will eventually clear us out once
again. Then we look to see somewhat a repeat of today with a short
wave moving by to our north, and a weak and dry cold front moving
through on Tuesday. Even with these "cold fronts" moving through,
the air is not that much cooler with the deep cold pool staying
north of the area, and the flow coming from the Pacific. Highs
should be in the 50s and 60s through Tuesday.
- Much cooler and unsettled weather beginning Wed and beyond
We will see a change arrive on Wednesday as the upper air pattern
over North America amplifies quite a bit. This is being driven by
very strong northern and southern jets over the Eastern Pacific. The
most notable feature is nearly a 500 dam 500 mb low over the
northern Pacific. The downstream effects will be a strong ridge over
the Rockies, allowing strong long wave troughing developing over
much of the Eastern U.S..
We will see a southern stream system approach the area on Wednesday
from the west, with sufficient moisture advection ahead of it to
bring decent rain chances to the area. This low establishes the
trough over the area, and then a strong northern stream trough dives
south over the area with the establishment of the upper ridge to our
west. This phasing of the streams will help to develop a large upper
trough over much of the Eastern part of the country. This will allow
for a few more instability showers for our area, while the main
energy transfers to the East Coast.
Lake effect looks to get going also with the area firmly under the
upper cold pool and cyclonic flow from Thursday and beyond. The
general consensus is that the flow will be mainly from N to S,
favoring areas over the lake and maybe the immediate lakeshore.
Delta t`s will be in the mid 20s C with 850 mb temps expected to
drop to around -6 to -7C. This degree of cold air, if it occurs,
would be cold enough for some of the showers to be snow showers away
from the warmer lake. Not a lot of rain/snow chances will be present
inland, but hit or miss showers will be present for much of next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
We are starting out the forecast period with mainly clear skies
across all of the terminals. A weak front over Wisconsin is poised
to move through the area today. This will bring a period of a few
hours of low clouds based in the lower MVFR category from the NW
beginning this morning, and exiting the area to the SE this
afternoon. As this front moves through, we will see winds increase
from the WSW with gusts of 25 to 30 knots likely.
We will see clearing then take place this afternoon for a bit.
Then additional lower clouds will drop in just after sunset from
North to South. The northern terminals will see more extensive
cloud cover. This cloud cover is expected to be VFR, so it will
not be as much of an impact as the frontal clouds.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
