557
FXUS63 KGRR 081057
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through first half of the weekend
- Chance of rain Sunday
- Warm with Rain Monday into Tuesday then cooler behind front
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
- Dry through first half of the weekend
Models remain persistent on a large upper level low over
north eastern Canada. The decent gradient will
keep cooler, drier northwest flow through the region through the
rest of today into Friday.
The clear skies and northwesterly flow could allow for patchy
frost along and north of the US 10 corridor.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the central plains and
upper midwest through Saturday. The warm air advection will
continue through Saturday with 850mb temps upwards of +17C. This
could correlate to temps near 80 across Southern Michigan, which
could be 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
- Chance of rain Sunday
The warm air advection will continue through Sunday with the
remnants of the tropical system will trek through the Ohio river
valley and overspread the state. Latest track keeps best moisture
southeast of the area. However, Area coinciding with I 69 and to
the Southeast could still see showers Sunday.
- Warm with Rain Monday into Tuesday then cooler behind front
As previous forecasts noted, a strong cold front should swing
through. Latest trends have the positively tilted trough extending
from an upper level low moving through the area Tuesday. This
could allow for more showers. It will also drop temperatures from
10 to 15 degrees above normal on Monday to near normal
temperatures and falling Tuesday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
VFR will dominate the weather pattern through the TAF period.
Gusty winds persist along the lakeshore, though most TAF sites
will see winds become light overnight. Expect winds to mix out by
mid to late morning and shift to the northwest with gusts upwards
of 25 mph this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Gusty winds from the west northwest will continue as a primarily
dry trough moves southward. The winds will increase after daybreak
and gusts will increase into the 25kts. Expect waves to increase
again, and waves lingering this morning.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Ceru
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
