895
FXUS63 KGRR 031910
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
310 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather into Thursday night
- Periods of showers and storms from Friday through Saturday
- Dry and warmer into the middle of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
- Dry weather into Thursday night
High confidence exists that dry weather will prevail tonight
through Thursday and into Thursday night. The atmosphere is quite
dry at the moment with dew points in the 30s and 40s at this time.
BUFKIT time/height overviews show limited moisture/clouds through
Thursday evening. The HREF on the other hand indicates an increase
in high clouds tonight into Thursday night. We generally have a
mostly clear to partly cloudy forecast for tonight into Thursday.
Highs on Thursday will rise well into the 80s.
We expect upstream convection on Thursday to try to spill into the
northern and western CWA overnight into Friday morning. We are
expecting decaying showers and embedded thunderstorms to press
into the area Thursday night, likely after 200am. Any convection
that develops with limited instability would be sub severe.
- Periods of showers and storms from Friday through Saturday
The main focus in the 7 day forecast is on the period from Friday
through Saturday when a cold front will press into and through the
forecast area. Convection on Friday will be modulated by morning
showers and clouds. It may be that instability is quite muted with
models currently showing 500 j/kg or less of MUCAPE through the
bulk of the day. Our better threat may come Friday evening with a
surge in the low level jet to 40-50 knots. There is low
confidence in storm morphology during the Friday evening/Friday
night time frame given the clouds/showers earlier. There is a
shortwave driving in at the mid levels though and a cold front
approaching so feel our first decent chance at storms, some of
which that could be strong will be Friday night.
There will likely be another lull in the activity Saturday morning
before a chance at showers and storms midday into the afternoon.
This activity will be driven by the cold front so we cannot rule
out some strong convection once again. Both the ECMWF and the GFS
have MUCAPE values between 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg. The threat area
will likely be confined to the southern half of the forecast area
and especially down towards AZO, BTL and JXN.
- Dry and warmer into the middle of next week
Despite a weak shortwave in the GFS trying to press into the
Western Great Lakes early next week we feel we should stay dry
from Monday into Wednesday. The ECWMF hangs on to ridging across
the area which should keep the weak wave at bay to our west. 850mb
temperatures slowly rise from the middle teens C to the upper
teens C next week so high temperatures will be well into the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
Scattered to broken CI is expected through the period. Light winds
will become mostly variable tonight and then become southwest
5-10kts Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
Surface high pressure will slowly slide away to the east tonight
which will allow return flow to set up. South winds of 5-15 knots
are expected tonight. A gradual ramp up in winds are expected as
we head into Friday and Friday night as the gradient tightens
between high pressure located over the southeast U.S. and a trough
of low pressure to our northwest. Winds will likely reach the
10-20 knot range on Thursday. Winds of 15-25 knots and a Small
Craft Advisory are likely from Thursday night through Friday
night. Highest winds and waves will be found north of Holland
given the southwest flow. After coordinating with APX, will hold
off on a headline for now. It will be issued by subsequent shifts.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
