918
FXUS63 KGRR 091704
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1204 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very light freezing rain possible tonight north of US-10
- Warm Tuesday, low chances for precipitation Tuesday night
- Accumulating snow possible this weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
- Very light freezing rain possible tonight north of US-10
Model guidance has been consistent with barely brushing the northern
forecast area with precipitation in the tonight/Tuesday morning
timeframe associated with a clipper system. Low level warm advection
will increase today as the surface high slides east of the area.
Precipitation that occurs tonight will driven by system-relative
isentropic ascent associated with the warm advection. 09/00Z HREF
guidance gives a nearly 100 percent chance of 850mb temperatures
reaching or exceeding 2 degrees C over our northern CWA around
midnight tonight. This is sufficient for total melting of
hydrometeors, meaning that freezing rain would be the most likely
precipitation type in the Osceola/Clare County region, where QPF is
greatest. When referring to greatest QPF, we are only talking
around one or two hundredths of an inch, so that should limit
impacts for Tuesday morning travel.
- Warm Tuesday, low chances for precipitation Tuesday night
Temperatures moderate briefly Tuesday with highs most likely in the
upper 30s. Latest NBM guidance indicates about a 50 percent chance
of reaching a high of 40 at Jackson; for Grand Rapids, the
probability is more around 30-40 percent.
As noted before, there is at least some probability for accumulating
precipitation in the Tuesday night/early Wednesday timeframe due to
lift provided by an arctic front combined with marginally moistened
air (due to lake aggregate effects). Any moisture will be quite
shallow, possibly entirely below the DGZ. Thus, lake effect
freezing drizzle could accompany any flurries or light snow that
occurs. The most likely place for any of this to occur would be
north of I-96.
We should have a better idea of what to expect later today as
more short range guidance becomes available to diagnose the
possibilities. However, it should be noted that in situations
like these with such shallow lake-sourced moisture, it`s a pretty
big ask for even the high resolution convection allowing models to
get the details right. Sometimes, bulk diagnostics like boundary
layer convergence/omega/RH tell the story a lot better.
The odds favor Thursday and Friday being dry and uneventful.
- Accumulating snow possible this weekend
The 09/00Z cluster analysis shows a stronger signal for unphased
northern and southern streams starting to affect the area beginning
late Friday. The cluster with greatest membership among the medium
range ensembles (close to 40 percent of the members) shows a
southern stream shortwave trough heading towards the mid Mississippi
Valley this weekend, which would induce a surface low tracking
towards the OH Valley. This is a favorable set up for accumulating
synoptic snow over much of Lower MI. This appears most likely
occur around Sunday morning.
Other and somewhat lower probability cluster solutions indicate a
surface low track more over southern Lower MI with greatest
accumulations displaced farther north and more of a mixed bag of
precipitation types across southern Lower MI.
Clearly we are too far out to nail down specifics. The main point is
that accumulating snowfall is possible over the weekend and this
will be the most important thing to watch moving forward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
There are two primary concerns for aviation through 18z Tues. The
first will be a period of LLWS developing around 06z as a strong
low level jet moves into the southern part of Lower MI amidst
light surface winds. There will be roughly a 6 to 7 hour period of
LLWS at any given terminal. After this, a surface cold front moves
through in the 12z-14z Tues time frame and cloud bases will
rapidly drop behind it. Broad consensus exists on IFR developing
in the post-frontal environment. The HREF suite of models is
showing a 50-70% probability of dipping into the LIFR category for
all terminals except MKG during the 14z-20z Tuesday window. If
these probabilities hold (or increase), may need to go LIFR at
several sites.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...Hoving
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
