800
FXUS63 KGRR 140638
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
238 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Decreasing clouds and warmer today
- Increasing chances of showers/storms beginning Friday night
- Summer-like temperatures on the way
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026
- Decreasing clouds and warmer today
As mentioned below, quite a bit of stratocu continues to rotate
southward around the departing upper low. However, recent images
shows some breaks developing across the cloud mass, especially
over northern Lake Huron. Still expecting clearing skies this
morning leading to a party cloudy day. As upper ridging moves in
from the west, heights and temperatures will increase. H8
temperatures begin today around 0c across the cwa and rise to 6c
by evening. This increase will be reflected on the surface with
highs in the upper 60s today.
- Increasing chances of showers/storms beginning Friday night
Quasi zonal flow beginning Friday night will enable short waves to
traverse the region. Roughly half of the Euro ensembles produces a
hundredth or two of precipitation Friday night, but HRRR soundings
look pretty dry which suggests that virga may be the result of the
minor waves moving through.
Saturday, a warm front will be lifting northward across the OH/TN
valleys with showers/storms developing along it over Indiana. It`s
possible a few of these storms could push north into the southern
couple of rows of counties late in the day.
Strengthening low pressure over the Plains will push the warm
front through the cwa Sunday and chances for showers/storms will
increase. Moisture transport vectors increase Sunday afternoon
and precipitable water values increase to 1.75 inches. SBCAPE also
increases to 1500 j/kg. However, shear values are only progd
around 30 kts. This will likely limit severe potential Sunday;
higher values were noted west of the lake. We`ll have to wait
until Monday/Tuesday before the Plains low pushes a cold front
through the cwa to see the highest chances for precipitation
across the cwa. Even then though, NCAR medium range AI convective
hazards forecast indicates severe chances will be west of the cwa.
- Summer-like temperatures on the way
H8 temperatures will rise to 16c by Monday. This should push
temperatures well into the 80s...perhaps close to 90. Dewpoints in
the 60s will make it feel summer-like early next week. Highs will
be in the 80s Saturday and Sunday as well. Even after the cold
front moves through next week, highs are still progd in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026
Latest IR loop shows VFR stratocu moving south around the
periphery of the upper low that`s moving away from the state. MKG
will likely remain clear, but the other terminals will see bkn-
ovc050-070 through 15z or so before clouds scatter out. Then clear
to sct050 for the rest of the period as high pressure settles over
the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026
An upper ridge is building over the Great Lakes and will keep wind
and waves below advisory criteria today and tonight. However as it
moves east Friday, the gradient will tighten and south winds will
increase resulting in waves that build to 3 to 5 feet north of
Holland; a small craft advisory will likely be needed Friday
afternoon through Friday night.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
