880
FXUS63 KGRR 220515
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
115 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with Morning Fog
- Chances for Rain Return Next Week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
No significant changes to the near-term forecast. MKG has already
started to see some reductions in visibility this evening,
becoming more widespread overnight thanks to favorable
radiational cooling conditions. 18z REFS probs continue to show a
similar story as noted earlier with 40-70% chance of sub 1 mile
visibiliites overnight. The best model signal for fog is north of
I-96 and west of US131, but given the favorable synoptic setup,
the threat for locally dense fog exists areawide. Reduced
visibilities and associated traffic slowdowns remain possible for
the Thursday morning commute.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
- Dry with Morning Fog
Our period of dry weather will continue through the weekend. A
shortwave trough and associated front will swing through this
evening. This is currently located in the UP into northern
Wisconsin. There is limited moisture with this disturbance,
therefore only expecting some cloud cover to move in. Skies clear
overnight with a moderate inversion developing and temperatures
falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. HREF and REFS show a 40 to
60 percent chance of visibilities less than a mile across much of
the area. The best chances are north of I-94. Fog could bring
slow downs for the Thursday morning commute.
Through the rest of the week we`ll see mostly sunny skies with
highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. There is
the potential for fog each morning as well.
- Chances for Rain Return Next Week
The upper level pattern changes for next week bringing several
shortwave troughs through the region along with better moisture.
This can be seen in the long range ensemble members that start to
bring in precipitation chances as early as Monday. More members
are dry Monday, therefore the NBM does not highlight any chances.
A larger number of members show rain Tuesday into Wednesday with
chances likely lingering through the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Areas of fog will be the main concern for aviation this morning,
otherwise, another clear day with light winds is expected. MKG
visibility has been bouncing around, indicating patches of fog may
be developing. Satellite and highway cameras show dense fog has
developed about 10 to 20 miles north-northwest of MKG. Models have
been portraying the greatest fog threat between MKG and LDM this
morning through 14Z, with patchy fog possible elsewhere.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Dry conditions continue with high pressure remaining in the area
keeping wave heights around a foot or less through Friday.
Southerly winds build this weekend and may approach Small Craft
Advisory criteria Saturday north of Grand Haven. Waves will also
build Saturday as well with the potential for 4 foot waves around
5 NM from shore north of Whitehall.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Thomas
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
