911
FXUS63 KGRR 071838
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clearing tonight, dry through Wednesday
- Warmer than normal temperatures through mid week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Clearing tonight, dry through Wednesday
The upper low that created showers yesterday is exiting the state
to the east. Visible satellite loop shows a well defined back edge
to the clouds and clearing has reached the lake shore. As the
upper low moves east and ridging builds in from the west, the
clearing will move across the rest of the cwa this
afternoon/evening.
The upper flow pattern across the northern tier of states is
generally northwest to southeast. Typical of this time of year,
short waves moving through the flow will cross the state
frequently. The next wave will move through Sunday followed by
another wave over northern Lower Tuesday. A much more robust short
wave will dig south across the Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Thursday. The wave that moves through Sunday has little moisture
with it and we won`t see anything more than clouds late tonight
and Sunday morning.
The short wave Tuesday moves across Lake Superior and won`t
produce much more than some clouds Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The deeper wave Wednesday/Thursday may give us some precipitation,
depending on where the surface low ends up. Models are showing the
surface low moving across the northern OH Valley
Wednesday/Thursday and would pull the precipitation south. The
exception may be for the lake shore area with persistent north
flow and colder temperatures may produce some lake effect rain
showers. For now, we`ll
- Warmer than normal temperatures through mid week
Highs are expected in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Wednesday,
before cooling into the 40s Thursday/Friday. Normal highs are
around 50.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
MVFR ceilings are beginning to scatter out as the influence of low
pressure diminishes and high pressure ridging noses in. Expecting
most of the area cloud cover to scatter to VFR in the next 1 to 3
hours, with VFR continuing through late tonight. The next low
pressure trough approaching from the northwest will wash a weak
front over the area Sunday morning. The HRRR and RRFS are
indicating likely ceilings below 2,000 feet and down to IFR for a
time Sunday morning. Conditions will deteriorate from northwest to
southeast. Some improvement may occur Sunday afternoon with cloud
bases climbing above 2,000 feet and going broken to scattered.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Monday
for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
