293
FXUS63 KGRR 140627
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
227 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds continue into this evening with some additional snow
- Strong storm to impact area Saturday night-Monday trending NW
- Moderating temps and quiet conditions mid-late next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026
- Strong winds continue into this evening with some additional snow
We will be leaving all headlines with the current event as is with
this afternoon`s forecast package.
The biggest impact for most of the area with the current system is
the wind. We have seen some of the top winds thus far range from 56
to 62 mph. We continue to see many sites gusting into the 50+ mph
range this afternoon. Wind cross sections show 50 knots of wind at 1-
2k ft agl until about 22-00z this evening.
The other impact expected through this evening will be additional
snow showers affecting most of the area, but additional
accumulations expected over the higher elevation of the interior
portions of Central Lower. Most sites have gone back to snow after a
mix of rain earlier. The U.S.-127 corridor is still seeing some
rain, but colder air advecting in there will change it over to snow
soon. The Central Interior area is the most favored for additional
snow accumulations with the favored area of the upper wave moving
across this area. Some of which will be after dark that will help
the cause for sticking, and the higher terrain (lower freezing level)
will also assist.
Thankfully the air does not get too cold before the snow stops later
this evening. This will allow many roads to dry before they could
potentially freeze. The best chance for ice on the roads will be up
north where snow will accumulate and temps will drop below freezing
sooner.
We will see all snow end no later than around 06z tonight as the
entire upper wave finally moves far enough east of our region. High
pressure will settle in for Saturday.
- Strong storm to impact area Saturday night-Monday trending NW
We will be leaving the current Winter Storm Watch as is for this
forecast package.
The dry period on Saturday will be short lived as precipitation will
make a run over the forecast area later Saturday night. This
precipitation will be the result of low level moisture transport
ramping up ahead of the main storm system that will just diving into
the Plains at that time. This precipitation will start largely as
snow with sufficiently cold enough air as it develops along and
north of I-96. The precipitation will expand southward as a warm
front develops at the sfc near the MI/IN line. Some of this
precipitation may start out as rain as it will be warmer closer to
the front. The snow up north could transition to a mix of sleet and
freezing rain for a bit as the elevated warm layer advances
northward.
By mid-late Sunday afternoon, the latest trends in just about all of
the model platforms have the mixed precipitation shifting north of
our forecast area border. The trend with the system has been to the
NW over the last few runs with the upper system wrapping up better.
What looked like heavy snow and some freezing rain a couple of days
ago for Ludington, now looks like some snow and freezing rain going
to rain as warmer air gets further north.
Now with the further north placement of the warmer air, one has to
look at the other side of this system, the severe thunderstorm
potential. Obviously a LOT of sheer going on with the strong upper
jet overhead. However, instability at this time is looking quite
weak, with maybe just enough for a chance of thunder. This is the
case as the system looks to be starting to occlude as it gets here,
and the best sfc based instability rides along the MI and IN/OH
border. Still time for this to change, and it could become more of a
problem if the trend to the NW continues.
Maybe the worst conditions of this whole system will be on the
backside of the system on Monday into Monday night. We will see all
precipitation change to snow as the cold air moves back in. This
cold air will come in via strong winds on the backside. We will
likely see the wraparound snow bring some accumulations and blowing
snow, and then some lake effect when the air becomes sufficiently
cold.
- Moderating temps and quiet conditions mid-late next week
Once the large low lifts NE and away from the area later Tuesday, we
will see conditions settle down for the rest of the week. One more
wave moves through Wednesday, but it will not have much moisture
associated with it.
Temperatures will start out cold on Tuesday with the core of the low
level cold air in place. We then see upper heights build from the
main ridge axis over the Western portion of the country. The
northern jet stream will lift well north of the area, and the upper
flow will come from the Pacific. The low level flow will be coming
from the SW, helping to advect warmer air over the area for the end
of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Areas of MVFR ceilings around 3,000 feet will scatter out this
morning. VFR is likely during the day. Northwest winds become
light and variable midday, then become southeast or east Sat
evening. After 03 Z Sun, light snow may develop near and north of
MKG, GRR, and LAN. MVFR to IFR visibility is likely going into the
night especially to the north of that line, affecting central
Lower Michigan.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Small craft advisory this morning as gusty northwest winds
subside, followed by diminshing wave heights through the day.
Anticipating another small craft advisory beginning late Sat night
for breezy east winds and waves building offshore. South gales are
possible along the shoreline on Sunday (most likely south of
Whitehall). North gales are possible near Big and Little Sable
Points Sunday night. Northwest gales are likely along the whole
nearshore on Monday, with a chance of some storm force gusts.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
MIZ037>040-043>045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
