022 FXUS63 KGRR 261104 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 704 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Weather Ahead - Chances for showers and storms next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 - Hot Weather Ahead A weak ridge with zonal flow will dominate the pattern through the weekend with mostly fair weather through Sunday. The main caveat will be the strong moisture advection that will move through northern Indiana late today. While most of Michigan will remain clear, the I94 corridor and southward could see cloudy skies and perhaps light rain this evening. The sfc low will shift into Ohio by early Saturday and will shift any moisture eastward. High pressure will build over the region over the weekend with building temperatures that will continue through next week. Those building temperatures are the main story and concern. Headlines could be needed as Max Temperatures will go from 5 below normal yesterday, to potentially 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Monday. While these could be overstated, the EC and NAEFS ensembles continue to show temperatures anomalies continue to increase into next week. A 2.7 std anomaly is persistent through next week. That is a good indicator that warm air advection will be persistent and good correlation that high pressure will dominate the pattern as it settles over the Tennessee/Kentucky region. The other issue is the dewpoints that will be advected along with the warmth. While the heat alone can be troublesome, the advection of upwards of mid 70s dewpoints will further complicate the heat threat. While it may be cliche, it`s not the heat, it`s the humidity. So the heat and humidity will be problematic through most of next week. Heat indices at this time are only in the advisory range at this time, they will need to be watched closely as they could increase. Another understated issue for the heat is that overnight lows Monday evening into Friday morning will generally be 70 degrees and above. That will preclude much nighttime relief from the accumulating heat. - Chances for showers and storms next week Though there will be copious amounts of diurnal heat and humidity the high pressure should stifle most daytime convection. While the high will persist, there is a an old meteorological term colloquially known as a "dirty ridge". This is a ridge with short waves filtering through it that could provide enough instability to take advantage of any hot and humid air that is present. The above pattern could allow for chance showers and storms overnight Sunday into Monday and potentially midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 IFR cigs have developed at MKG and GRR with periods of IFR at JXN and LAN. Expect periods of IFR to occur through 14Z. MVFR vsbys have occurred at JXN this morning as well. This is due to low level moisture pooling overnight. Expect once the inversion lifts, these restrictions will lift and dissipate. The next concern is showers potentially affecting the southern TAF sites of AZO, BTL and JXN. Any restrictions from light rain would be MVFR and considering there remains some questions whether or not it will occur have gone with prob30s. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Periods of morning fog will be possible through the weekend. However, winds will be light as high pressure build over the region with fair winds and waves are expected through the weekend. Next chance for hazardous winds and waves will be Monday due to increasing southerly flow. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Ceru MARINE...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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