688
FXUS63 KGRR 071058
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
658 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Dry Into The Weekend
- Increasing Chances for Rain Sunday into Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
- Mostly Dry Into The Weekend
Within the northwest flow today we`ll see the shortwave trough
this morning exit the area with skies clearing out for the
afternoon. Tonight we`ll see another shortwave bringing cloud
cover and potentially some sprinkles or light showers. Confidence
was not high enough to add to the forecast as showers would be
shallow and elevated if they developed with little to no
precipitation making it to the surface. The best chance would be
north of M-20.
Cooler temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures Thursday night will bring another chance for
frost/freeze conditions for portions of north central Michigan.
While the forecast is currently dry for Friday. Warm air advection
with support of convergence with the low level jet could spark off
showers for Friday evening. There is an increase in members with
measurable precipitation Friday evening, therefore would expect
NBM PoPs to increase with the next run.
- Increasing Chances for Rain Sunday into Next Week
We`ll need to keep an eye on the tropical feature in the Gulf as
it could bring rainfall to the area Sunday depending on the track.
Otherwise we`ll see a stronger front move through with better
moisture for the beginning of next week. This will bring
additional chances for rain along with colder temperatures behind
the front.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
VFR conditions continue with winds becoming west northwesterly
this morning. Winds are expected to gust around 20 knots before
shifting to the southwest this evening. Another front moves
through tonight bringing an additional round of northwest winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
Waves and winds gradually fall below Small Craft Advisory
conditions this morning. However this break in the winds will be
short lived as gusts pick back up in the 20 to 25 knot range
tonight into Thursday for areas north of Holland. Waves will
increase into the 3 to 5 foot range for the entire nearshore
area. Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed.
Lighter winds move in for the first half of Friday, before
southerly winds increase with gusts approaching Small Craft
Advisory conditions mainly north of Grand Haven. Winds may remain
offshore enough to keep wave heights lower. As we head through the
weekend wave heights look to build once more at 4 feet or higher
for areas north of Holland.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
