011
FXUS63 KGRR 082304
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
704 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and Storms possible Saturday
- Cooler than normal with Frost/Freeze possible Sunday morning
- Showers possible again Tuesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026
- Showers and Storms possible Saturday
The large upper level low over Hudson bay will bring a short wave
through the area late tonight, early Saturday. This could allow
for some light showers Saturday morning, mainly along the
lakeshore and US 10 corridor. The limiting factor will be the
dryness of the atmosphere. Only expecting light rainfall.
As the trough and associated front move to the east the gradient
at and behind the front will allow for gusty winds Saturday
afternoon. Expect 25 to 35 mph winds tomorrow afternoon, mainly
east of the US 131 corridor. Those gusty winds will continue into
Saturday evening.
The frontal pattern that will move through Saturday has strong
mid level shear associated with it. There is some concern that as
it moves eastward it could couple with daytime heating to allow
for scattered thunderstorms. SPC has the southeastern in a
marginal risk for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.
This includes far southeast Jackson County. Most, if not all
convection should form eastward, but if the front stalls there is
a chance for storms in southeastern Jackson county. Given the
previously mentioned conditions, any storms could be strong.
Any storm chances will dwindle quickly Saturday evening.
- Cooler than normal with Frost/Freeze possible Sunday morning
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue. The cold
northwesterly flow will Saturday into Sunday should allow skies to
clear which could allow for another chance frost/freeze conditions
Sunday morning. The large upper level low will move to the east
Sunday into Monday.
- Showers possible again Tuesday
High pressure ridge will build over the area Monday into
Tuesday. Mid range models are in good agreement with the passage
of an upper level system timing Tuesday night into Wednesday,
though it is still progged to move fairly quickly.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026
Daytime Cu is present along I-94 with a very dry ambient airmass
supporting VFR bases. Overnight, singals exist for an area of low
clouds to develop near I-94. AZO/BTL will be right on the edge of
the low clouds with MVFR conditions possible. The most likely
terminal to see MVFR conditions, potentially approaching IFR, is
JXN. Any low clouds clear by mid-morning Saturday with wing gusts
increasing to around 25 knots through the late morning and into
the afternoon. As a front crosses the terminals Sunday morning
into the early afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop. Thunder potential is best east of the terminals given
frontal timing, with the most likely terminal impacted being JXN.
Will leave thunder out of all terminals and showers out of all
terminals except JXN given low confidence in terminal impacts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026
Strong gradient flow out ahead of the approaching system should
allow for gusty winds and building waves tonight into tomorrow. As
such there is a concern for winds and waves to be hazardous to
small craft. At first, through the north and then through the
south behind the front from northwesterly flow. As such have a
Small craft advisory through the first half of Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026
Lowered NBM dew points for today given soundings showing mixing
heights rising to 7500 feet. This gives Min RH around 25 percent
this afternoon. Deep mixing will yield winds of 20 knots at the
surface as well, so we will have to monitor for RFW criteria being
reached this afternoon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Ceru
FIRE WEATHER...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
