824
FXUS63 KGRR 231814
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
214 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and A Few Storms Sunday
- Warmer With Low Precipitation Chances Early Next Week
- Dry and Cool Late Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
- Showers and A Few Storms Sunday
Radar shows that ongoing showers continue to diminish this
afternoon. A lull in precipitation is expected for the evening and
overnight hours. Then, our next mid-level wave arrives driving a
line of showers across the area. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE
values of a few hundred J/kg which would be sufficient for some
embedded thunderstorms. The other concern is for areas of fog
development overnight given the high ambient moisture and light
winds. The best signal is across the US-127 corridor where light
north/northeasterly flow off of Huron may aid boundary layer
moisture.
- Warmer With Low Precipitation Chances Early Next Week
We see large scale ridging move in early next week as an Omega
Block pattern sets up across the Central CONUS. Rain chances are
low given that this will force the polar jet north and east of the
area. There are two chances worth mentioning, Monday and
Wednesday, both with low chances.
Monday will feature a low (less than 20 percent) chance of a
shower or storm across our northeast CWA as a weak mid-level wave
interacts with convergence off of Lake Huron with the ambient
flow. The best chance will remain north and east of the area
however.
Wednesday will feature a backdoor cold front moving in from the
north, a stationary front south of the area across the lower Ohio
Valley, and a shortwave attempting to reach the area. Given these
features don`t really overlap across the area, precipitation
chances are low, maxing out at 30 percent across the I-94
corridor. 850mb temps also climb into the mid-teens early next
week, allowing highs to climb well into the 80s.
- Dry and Cool Late Next Week
Once the back door cold front exits the area going into Thursday,
an overall cooldown is expected. Some uncertainty exists in the
placement of the polar jet and by extension the degree of the
cooldown. However, confidence is higher in dry conditions given
predominant surface and upper-level ridging and a drier ambient
airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
Generally IFR is more predominant near and southeast of GRR/Alma,
while MVFR ceilings below 2,000 feet prevail near South Haven,
MKG, and Big Rapids this afternoon. A few more hours of IFR
visibility with drizzle and mist is favored especially near and
southeast of GRR. There may be some scattering of the low ceilings
for a period this evening, but deteriorating ceiling or visibility
conditions are favored late tonight into Sunday morning as light
winds and lingering moisture favor some fog potential. Then
showers and a chance of a thunderstorm will move through during
the daylight hours Sunday morning. Look forward to improving
conditions from west to east Sunday late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
A weaker pressure gradient and by extension lighter winds/more
subdued waves is forecast over the next week. This means headlines
are not expected through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend
into early next week. Offshore flow continues through the rest of
the day before coming back onshore going into Sunday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
