180
FXUS63 KGRR 222126
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
426 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake Effect Snow Showers Tonight into tomorrow
- Bitterly Cold Temperatures through Saturday
- More Snow Possible Sunday into Early Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
- Lake Effect Snow Showers Tonight into tomorrow
Lake effect snow continues tonight into tomorrow with strong
westerly to northwesterly flow overnight. The winds will remain
gusty from the US 131 corridor westward. Those gusty winds along
with lake effect snow showers could drop visibilities down to 1/4
mile at times. Strongest lake effect bands are expected tonight.
These visibilities and snowfall along with drifting and blowing
snow will cause impacts the evening and morning commutes
Snow amounts will vary due to the strong winds. Expect amounts of
1 to 4 inches of snowfall along and west of the US 131 corridor.
Higher amounts are possible in the northwest region, especially in
the Ludington and Hart area. Snowfall ratios will vary but fluffy
to very fluffy snow is expected.
. The cold air aloft moving overhead will make very fine snow
that will become could cause very slick roadways.
- Bitterly Cold Temperatures through Saturday
The high temperatures for the day have already occurred and
temperatures will continue to drop through tonight and tomorrow
into Saturday morning. The strong gusty winds along with the
dropping temperatures will allow for wind chills to drop in the
-20 to -30 range.
This event is really two fold. The frigid, arctic air mass moves
over the region with 850mb temps around -30. Considering the
latest soundings have the area mixing to the 850mb level, the
gusty winds will mix down that frigid air so wind chills along the
north of the I 96 corridor could be in the -20 to -30 range
tomorrow morning.
The winds will slacken Friday evening as the high settles over
the area Friday night into Saturday. While that will take away the
lake effect and blowing snow threat, the colder air will settle
over the region into saturday morning. the EC global ensembles,
along the with the short range CAMS have all trended colder. SO
based on these trends and the fact that we will have a clearing
sky and a fresh snowpack, the surface temperatures could drop to
-20 in some locations.
For more about local records please look at
the climate section below. When temperatures get this cold it
also does interesting things to the river.
For discussion about this please look at the hydro section
below.
- More Snow Possible Sunday into Early Next Week
The arctic air mass will move off to the east and our
temperatures will improve into the teens Sunday into next week
with overnight lows in the low single digits. The major winter
storm that will be affecting the central US could bring some bands
of snow Sunday night into Monday. Not expecting a major snow at
this point but the southern US 127 corridor could see some snow
showers Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
Snow and blowing snow continues to impact the terminals this
afternoon. MVFR and IFR conditions will continue to persist as
the snow remains into the evening hours. Slowly the snow should
start to pull closer to the lakeshore...but breezy winds may
continued to impact visibilities at all terminals through the
overnight hours. Some break from MVFR/IFR conditions is possible
Friday morning for most of the area...though KMKG may not see
improvement until after the taf period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
Have extended the gale into Friday afternoon. Dangerous gale and
heavy freezing spray conditions will continue through today and
into tomorrow. Freezing spray will last even longer thanks to
bitterly cold air crossing Lake Michigan.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
Bitterly cold temperatures will continue to increase the ice
forming on our rivers. Thankfully, most of our typical
trouble spots for ice jams are already mostly or completely
frozen over. However, river ice is notoriously unpredictable, and
the rarity of this upcoming cold snap will likely create some
minor ice jam issues in places that don`t typically have to deal
with river ice. For example, the last time it was this cold
(2019) the Muskegon River had some ice jam issues at both
Bridgeton and Newaygo, and there are already some signs that
something similar could be happening again this year. The bottom
line is that when we expect very unusual cold conditions, it`s not
unreasonable to expect some very unusual river ice issues
somewhere. Water levels around ice jams can go up/down much faster
than usual, so anyone living near a river should pay extra
attention to water levels over the next few days and have a plan
to respond if conditions change quickly.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 425 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
Forecast low temperatures on 1/24 and associated records:
GRR -17 (record -19 in 1948)
LAN -13 (record -22 in 1884)
MKG -6 (record -5 in 1970)
BIV -10 (record -12 in 1948)
AZO -13 (record -13 in 1963)
BTL -15 (record -13 in 1948)
Forecast high temperatures on 1/24 and associated record coldest
highs:
GRR 8 (record 6 in 1904)
LAN 8 (record 5 in 1963)
MKG 11 (record 7 in 1897)
BIV 9 (record 11 1987)
AZO 8 (record 5 in 1963)
BTL 8 (record 4 in 1963)
Some computer model guidance (ie. ECE/ECMWF/HRRR) supports pockets
of -20 or colder on Saturday. If that occurs, it would be the first
time since January 1994 that those temperatures would be recorded in
this region. The following temperatures are the coldest ever
recorded at our long term climate sites:
GRR -24 (2/13/1899 and 2/14/1899)
LAN -37 (2/2/1868)
MKG -30 (2/11/1899)
BIV -24 (2/1/1918)
AZO -22 (2/5/1918 and 2/10/1912)
BTL -24 (2/12/1899)
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
Extreme Cold Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Saturday for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059.
Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Saturday for MIZ064>067-071>074.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Maczko
MARINE...Ceru
HYDROLOGY...AMD
CLIMATE...Hoving
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
