593
FXUS63 KGRR 140025
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
725 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers ending, then dry into next week
- Much warmer next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026
- Isolated showers ending, then dry into next week
Radar continues to show a dominant lake band moving south over
Lake MI, but appears to be just west of the Points. A weaker band
of light rain showers from Lake Huron was moving SSW over
Portland. All of the precipitation will continue to weaken tonight
and Saturday morning.
The lake-induced precipitation has been a ramification of colder
air brought south within the deep flow of an upper trough.
Boundary layer flow is generally from the NNE and so that has
limited the areal extent of precipitation across the cwa. The
models show a general rex block across the northern US, but also
show it breaking down this weekend as a strong short wave is
ejected eastward from the deep eastern Pacific trough. The result
will be ridging that will build over the Great Lakes and end the
precipitation. We`ll see a gradual reduction of cloud cover as the
weekend progresses and quite a bit of sunshine next week.
- Much warmer next week
H8 temperatures currently near -6c are progd to warm to around +8c
by Thursday as heights rise under the upper ridge. That will
result in surface highs climbing from the upper 40s this weekend
to lower to mid 50s early next week to around 60 toward the end of
the week Highs by next Thursday will be 10-15 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026
Southwest Lower Michigan remains in a lake effect regime with
stratocumulus clouds (mostly VFR bases) moving through the region.
A sizable area of clearing has developed as of 00z in a north
flow. We expect either VFR bases or sct/clr skies tonight. Around
daybreak, the winds will back and flow more off of the lake will
commence. This will bring in more in the way of clouds and lower
ceilings (MVFR) during the day on Saturday. We will have the
chance for some light rain showers towards MKG Saturday morning.
Winds will be light north tonight trending northwest on Saturday
at 10-15 knots.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
