374
FXUS63 KGRR 270613
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
213 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry though Saturday
- Periods of Showers and Thunderstorms Saturday Night into Next
Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
- Dry though Saturday
Drier air is working in behind the cold front that has recently
moved through the state. The upper level low will continue to
rotate a few shortwave troughs this afternoon and early Friday.
Outlier solutions try to pop up some showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and Friday afternoon, but overall probabilities are
low (less than 20 percent) for any one location. Pressure heights
increase Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds to
our south. Highs into Saturday will be in the 70s to low 80s.
- Periods of Showers and Thunderstorms Saturday Night into Next
Week
We`ll remain on the northern edge of high pressure into next week.
There aren`t any significant shortwaves moving through, but the
low level jet will gradually shift into the area bringing us
multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday
night and continuing into next week. Our chances will ebb and
flow with the low level jet as it will be our main source of lift
along with advecting in some high precipitable water values (1.5
to 2.0 inches) and dew points (60s). There are differences in
where exactly the low level jet sets up which will impact who sees
the best chances for rain and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for heavy rainfall, although probabilities for higher
amounts for any one location are low due to the uncertainty of
where rain and thunderstorms are most likely to track.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Visibilities may jump between VFR and MVFR this morning with the
best chance for sustained MVFR conditions at JXN through 13Z.
Otherwise expect some SCT diurnal cumulus around 5000 to 7000
feet to develop this afternoon with northwest winds around 5 to 15
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Winds and waves continue to come down with current observations of
waves around a foot and winds 5 to 15 knots. Northwest winds will
continue through the day with wave heights around 1 to 2 feet.
Winds then become more easterly into Friday morning. The lake
breeze will develop Friday afternoon with waves heights around a
foot or less.
Our next chance for Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk
conditions moves in Saturday and continues through at least Sunday
due to stronger southwest winds causing waves to build. Our next
chance for thunderstorms moves in Saturday night and continues
into next week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
