838
FXUS63 KGRR 282347
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
647 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Accumulating snow sliding through this afternoon into tonight
- Potential for a light wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday
- Warmer with periods of rain mid week into next weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Accumulating snow sliding through this afternoon into tonight
Winter wants to hang on as we flip the calendar from February into
March. Snow is spreading our direction from upstream in Wisconsin
and we should see accumulating snow this evening. The bulk of the
snow should fall across the area between 400pm this afternoon and
400am early Sunday morning. The snow is occurring within an area
for frontogenesis aloft between 850mb and 700mb. The models have
zeroed in on the I-96 corridor and the next row of counties south
of that as the area that should see the higher accumulations. So,
Muskegon, Holland, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Allegan, Hastings, Eaton
Rapids and Mason are some of the locations that should be in the
heavier band. At this point we are thinking 1-3 inch accumulations
will be the norm in this zone with an isolated 4 inch amount
possible is the banding remains steady state as it moves through.
Heaviest snow rates will occur this evening. To the north and
south of the heaviest swath, for areas like Central Lower
Michigan and down towards I-94, we are looking at trace amounts to
around 1 inch of new snow. No headlines for this event as the
totals don`t meet criteria and the snow is falling in off peak
travel times...after dark and on a weekend. Slippery travel can
certainly be expected though this evening. The snow should have
moved east of the area by daybreak on Sunday.
- Potential for a light wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday night
The pattern changes as we head into the latter portions of the
work week with warmer air and periods of rain. Ahead of this
warmth though as the cooler air near the surface hangs on we may
see some brief periods of freezing rain from Monday night into
Tuesday night. This does not look to be heavy and it is
questionable whether or not it occurs at all. Tuesday during the
day we look warmer where the precipitation type would be mainly
rain. Something to watch at this point, but again this is a low
confidence forecast somewhat based on the fact that the warm front
to our south is positioned differently by the models. Bottom line,
small possibilities for some light freezing rain Monday night and
again Tuesday night.
- Warmer with periods of rain mid week into next weekend
For those looking for a taste of spring it appears the later half
of the work week and into next weekend may speak to you. We warm
up with high temperatures trending from the 40s into the 50s. We
could even be looking at some lower 60s next weekend into early
next week. As with most surges in warm air in March we are looking
at periods of rain. There is the potential for 1 inch or more of
rain towards I-94 as moisture surges in from the south. A bit
early to nail down placement and amounts, but the trends point
towards Southern Lower Michigan as the location for the heaviest
rain for now. Plenty of time to watch trends on locations and
amounts of heaviest rain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
Overall the forecast remains on track. The axis of heavier snow
has set up from MKG to GRR to LAN. It is in this area to expected
visibilities below a mile and ceilings potentially dropping below
1000 feet at times. 1-2 inches of snowfall are expected through
6Z, but isolated higher amounts up to 4 remain possible for those
areas that remain under the heavier snow longer. Further south
have increased the visibilities and ceilings for AZO to JXN as the
snow is setting up north of these areas. Some light snow remains
possible with brief periods of MVFR conditions.
Overnight into Sunday morning conditions improve to VFR with dry
conditions and light northerly winds.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
