446
FXUS63 KGRR 011740
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and Breezy with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns
- Showers and storms possible late this week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
- Dry and Breezy with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns
A large upper level low off the east coast will swing an upper
level wave through the region today. While this wave will be
moisture starved, it will allow for a tightening of the pressure
gradients over Michigan. That will allow for gusty winds this
afternoon. Those winds, coupled with the dry air and temps in the
80s will bring elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
subside this evening.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through at least midweek,
however the low will shift eastward tomorrow and winds are
expected to be lighter.
- Showers and storms possible late this week
A positively tilted upper level ridge and a large sfc high
pressure system will dominate the weather this week. This will
keep any advancing showers from the west to stall or move around
it. This will keep the Lower Peninsula dry through Thursday. The
models begin to diverge due to timing and position of the incoming
low. However, the ridge will flatten and moisture flow will
increase Friday into Saturday. Couple that will the fact that the
sfc high will have shifted to the south east US. That will stream
gulf moisture through the central US, the Great Lakes and then
through the Mid Atlantic. QPF is not expected to be abnormal,
NAEFS mean PWATS are near normal, however it gives us the next
chance for showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
VFR conditions are expected with few-scattered daytime cumulus
with bases 7,000 to 8,000 feet having just developed. Winds will
be from the northeast around 5 to 10 knots, except near Lake
Michigan where winds will be more from the north-northwest. A push
of breezier 10 to 15 knot winds off Lake Huron / Saginaw Bay is
expected for several hours this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
Latest wind models have backed off a bit though the HRRR
continues to have slightly higher northerly flow near the points.
There is the potential for waves to build to near SCA criteria
this afternoon. However, the winds shift to the east with the
front and become offshore flow.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Ceru
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
