406
FXUS63 KGRR 141135
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
635 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect showers and clouds today
- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late
week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
- Lake effect showers and clouds today
The trough that has been over the area for several days continues to
linger today with sub-zero 850mb temps. This will keep lake effect
stratus across the area, with lake effect showers over the lake into
the lakeshore counties as winds move from north-northeasterly to
northwesterly. Thermal profiles suggest snow mixing in is possible
before daybreak though no accumulation is expected if this does
occur.
- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late
week
The breakdown of a Rex block will move the aforementioned trough off
to the east with ridging and high pressure driving weather for the
first half to two thirds of next week. With 850mb temps climbing
into the 6C-8C range this will lead to warmer and dry conditions
with increased sunshine. Low pressure and a cold front return late
week, with a shortwave expected to ride the northern periphery of
the ridge. This does bring some rain chances back to the area. Highs
will be near 60 by the latter part of the week, notably above normal
for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Satellite trends have shown intermittent MVFR lake effect stratocu
reaching the terminals sooner than originally forecast, which is
being handled with TEMPO groups for the next few hours given the
more intermittent nature. Expecting widespread MVFR later this
morning through at least this evening with cigs falling below 2kft
at times. Have estimates for when ceilings reach VFR this evening,
however model guidance has a known tendency to be too agressive in
lifting ceilings to VFR so restrictions hanging on longer is
definitely possible. Otherwise, expect lake effect showers to stay
in the vicinity of MKG, with a low (20-30%) chance of hitting the
terminal proper as winds over the lake switch to onshore this
morning bringing the band of showers inland.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ844-845.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
