536
FXUS63 KGRR 271135
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
635 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Band of light snow accumulations Saturday afternoon/evening
- Mainly dry with moderating temperatures Sunday through Wednesday
- Wet and warm period beginning late next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
- Band of light snow accumulations Saturday afternoon/evening
Satellite imagery this morning looks similar to this time yesterday
morning with mainly clear skies over most of the area and just some
clouds NE of the forecast area.
The noteworthy items for today will be the increasing winds, and
resulting much warmer temperatures compared to the last couple of
days. The increasing winds from the SW will be the result of a
fairly strong sfc low organizing over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces, and zipping east to Ontario by later today. There is a
strong pressure gradient between the low, and a 1020 mb sfc high SE
of the state later today.
The forecast area is expected to stay dry, even with the strong
warm flow, and cold front moving through late this evening. The
strongest forcing with the sfc low and upper low will stay well
north of the area. There is very little moisture to work with, and
the inflow for the system will be coming off of the Plains.
The focus then shifts to the band of snow that will move through the
area late Saturday afternoon and evening. The various sets of data
have been in generally in good agreement with uncertainty still
present with regards to the details. One trend has been for snow
amounts to drop a bit over the last few model runs. This is not
surprising given we are dealing with very little moisture, and a
flow from the NE ahead of the system will drive in more dry air from
Canada.
The axis of best snow also remains a bit uncertain. This is not
surprising either given we are dealing with the main forcing being
mid level fgen resulting from upper jet coupling over the area. The
area most likely to see the best accumulations will be from I-96 to
about a Pentwater to Mt. Pleasant line, with the actual highest
totals likely ending up as a narrow axis.
- Mainly dry with moderating temperatures Sunday through Wednesday
Low level flow from the NE will continue over the area through
Sunday in the wake of the jet coupling/mid level fgen snow maker.
This flow will advect shallow colder air over the area with 850 mb
temperatures likely ranging from -10 to -15C. This will support the
coldest temperatures over the next week with highs likely in the 20s.
We will see temperatures recover a bit on Monday as sfc ridging
passes east of the area, and more of a srly flow sets up for a day.
Most of the area should stay dry from Sunday right on through
Wednesday. This is because Lower Michigan will end up in between the
two branches of the upper jet. The northern polar jet will be over
Southern Canada, while the subtropical jet will end up just south of
the area. There will be a couple of disturbances embedded in the
southern branch that will try to bring precipitation close to the
southern portion of the forecast area. These chances are fairly low
as the systems approach, the flow will become from the NE once
again, bringing in dry low level air that will try to eat away the
precipitation from the northern edge. We will leave some small
chances of mixed precipitation in. Otherwise max temps will be
mainly in the 40s through mid-next week.
- Wet and warm period beginning late next week
The general pattern being advertised by the various sets of data
continue to indicate a pattern change evolving that will facilitate
a warmer and wetter pattern.
This pattern change is the result of multiple upper troughs
affecting the SW portion of the country. The position of these
troughs will set up a deep flow from the SW. Multiple pieces of
energy will eject from the parent low/trough, and will lift up over
our area. These systems will tend to draw deep moisture up from the
Gulf, along with warmer temperatures.
The first of these wet and warm systems continues to look like it
will arrive around the Thursday time frame. Enough warm and moist
air looks to advect up this way to bring at least a small chance of
elevated thunder. There also may be a small chance of mixed
precipitation over the interior portions of Central Lower as some of
the shallow cold air may get stuck right at the surface briefly,
before the warm air overcomes the cold air.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
Skies are once again starting out mostly clear across all of the
terminals this morning, like last morning. Some patchy fog has
showed up at KMKG, bouncing between MVFR and IFR with some likely
shallow ground fog. Obviously any fog will burn out quickly with
winds picking up and temperatures warming. Winds are likely to
gust as high as 30+ knots ahead of the next incoming front from
the SW.
Some mid and high clouds will move across the area once again
later this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds will continue until
around sunset. Winds aloft will remain up, so have maintained the
low level wind shear starting around 00z with around 50 knots.
This does not last that long, as winds aloft diminish after
04-05z.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
