462
FXUS63 KGRR 051122
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
622 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy with Rain Showers Today
- Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Friday into Early Saturday
- Above Normal Temperatures Until Mid-Week System
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
- Cloudy with Rain Showers Today
Low pressure with plenty of low level moisture will result in
cloudy conditions with rain showers through this afternoon. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible south of I-94 this afternoon as
there will be some instability as the upper level low moves
through. Although our main source of lift exits the region this
evening, soundings show low level moisture sticking around.
Wouldn`t be surprised if patchy drizzle was present overnight into
early Friday. Temperatures today will be a cooler due to the
cloud cover, rain, and northeast flow.
- Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Friday into Early Saturday
The previously mentioned low level moisture may delay how fast
CAPE builds through the day Friday limiting the thunderstorm
potential until later. The low level jet moves in Friday afternoon
bringing low level convergence along with warm air advection. It
is with this lift we have our first initial chance for showers and
thunderstorms, although not expecting any strong to severe storms
with this initial round.
Instability builds through the remainder of the day into Friday
night along with the strengthening low level jet of around 60
knots. There will be plenty of wind shear into Saturday morning
along with 0-3km storm relative helicity. This is leading to the
marginal severe risk highlighted by the SPC Friday night into
Saturday morning. There still remains some uncertainty with the
overall timing of an anticipated line of thunderstorms that is
expected to move through Saturday morning. This will impact how
much instability is available as well. Some solutions have a
better set up for severe storms, while others are less favorable.
Keep up to date with the latest forecast as we get closer.
- Above Normal Temperatures Until Mid-Week System
Normal high temperatures this time of year are typically in the
upper 30s to low 40s and after today highs are forecast to be in
the 50s and 60s with some spots potentially approaching 70 into
next week. Currently there is a chance to break record high
temperatures in some spots Friday and Monday along with record
warm low temperatures Saturday and Tuesday. As with any spring
pattern however, there is agreement in the long range ensembles
with colder temperatures moving in behind a system mid week. Rain
chances increase Tuesday into Wednesday with a transition to snow
possible as the colder air moves in Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
LIFR ceilings will persist into Friday morning. Visibilities today
will likely be around 1 to 3 SM for areas along and south of I-96.
Off and on showers and drizzle are expected with the best chances
between 15-21Z as the low currently in southern Iowa moves into
the area. There is a low chance (20 percent) for thunder this
afternoon near AZO, BTL, and JXN. Lingering low level moisture
tonight may bring periods of drizzle into Friday morning.
Visibility tonight is expected to drop below a mile.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
