725
FXUS63 KGRR 231030
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
630 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy & Cooler Today; Isolated Shower Possible
- Dry Monday/Tuesday, Turning Wet Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
- Breezy & Cooler Today; Isolated Shower Possible
We`ll be west of a departing low pressure system today as cold air
advection occurs over the region and boundary layer mixing should
bring down 25-30 mph wind gusts to the surface. This cool NW
breeze will only yield max temps in the upper 60s to low 70s
today, below normal for the third week in August. CAMs are trying
to spit out a few rogue showers today, mainly across central Lower
MI, though these would be minor given decreasing low level
moisture and pathetic ELs. Not expecting lightning in this
activity today. Most areas will not get rained on.
- Dry Monday/Tuesday, Turning Wet Wednesday
The early week period looks tranquil with lighter winds as upper
heights build and partly to mostly sunny skies will dominate. The
next feature of interest is an upper trough that arrives Wednesday
during peak heating. ECE ensemble members are sold on 1000+ MUCAPE
across the region by afternoon/evening ahead of this feature, most
of which should be realized as surface based instability at this
point. GFS model soundings indicate moistening soundings during
the afternoon and night hours Wednesday as surface dew points try
to get into the 60s. Deep layer shear does not look very good with
maybe 25 kts or so, thus only quasi-organized convection is
likely, but trends will be monitored as we get closer. Best chance
for rain looks to be 18z Wednesday through 06z Thursday. Can`t
rule out some leftover/lingering showers or scattered storms on
Thursday mainly across mid Michigan and points east. Just depends
on how fast the upper trough moves, but there is time to watch.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
VFR is forecast for this TAF period. Breezy conditions expected at
the terminals with gusts around 25 kts. Cloud bases around 5k ft
this afternoon with only a widely scattered shower possible, most
likely avoiding the terminals but will maintain some PROB30s to
cover threats at A) AZO and BTL through ~14z and then B) LAN and
JXN for diurnally driven showers possible from 18z-00z. There does
not appear to be enough instability to warrant any mention of
thunder.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
The forecast is unchanged for today with winds and waves remaining
hazardous to small craft and hazardous swim conditions for the
beaches. Expecting 4 to 6 ft for all areas with NW flow of 15 to
25 knots and some gusts to 30 knots possible. These winds and
waves will not subside until this evening into tonight. After
today, waves may reach 2-3 ft on Monday with a further diminishing
into Tuesday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...Hoving
MARINE...Hoving
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
