590
FXUS63 KGRR 042341
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
641 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of
Severe Storms Friday Night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
- Active Weather Pattern through Next Week with Marginal Risk of
Severe Storms Friday Night
After a stretch of quiet weather this week, the Great Lakes
region will have a series of shortwave troughs coming through
over the next week. The pattern will feature mild Pacific air
streams in southwest flow into early next week before the polar
jet dips south again by late next week.
Moisture advects north this evening with showers spreading across
the forecast area from the south overnight as a weakening
shortwave trough moves through. Model soundings indicate freezing
precip will not be an issue even across the higher elevations of
Osceola and Clare Counties as the column would wet bulb above 0C
at the surface by the time precip reaches that area around or
after 12Z Thursday.
A more significant trough ejects out of the western CONUS by the
Friday with rain expected ahead and along a slow moving
baroclinic zone from late Friday through Saturday and could bring
a weakening line of convection. Current indications are for
chance probabilities (30 to 40 percent) for elevated convection
with a warm front feature Friday evening and a similar chance of
convection after midnight ahead of the cold front. Severe threat
may be limited by the expected late night/early morning passage
of the storms and possible disruption of northward advection of
deep moisture by strong convection to the southwest of Lower
Michigan.
Quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend with an active pattern
continuing into next week. Confidence is still rather low with
the details but a strong shortwave trough moves through in the
Tuesday to with the potential for cold air and some snow returning
after mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
Thickening and lowering clouds have moved in from the south, with
conditions along the I-94 sites already down into MVFR cig
conditions. As the evening progresses, all locations will continue
going downhill primarily with cigs but eventually visibilities and
even some rain showers move in after midnight as widespread LIFR
conditions set up across the area. Winds will be light, but with
rounds of rain and extremely low clouds on track through much of
the day Thursday is looking like a very gloomy day. Conditions may
improve some perhaps to MVFR Thursday afternoon as some drier air
begins to move back into the low levels of the atmosphere, but
confidence in this happening isn`t terribly high, as low clouds
like to hang on longer than expected.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...AMD
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
