078
FXUS63 KGRR 120428
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1128 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer Temperatures continue into next week
- Next Chance for precipitation next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
- Warmer Temperatures continue into next week
Cold northwesterly flow will persist through the latter half of
the work week. Expect gusty winds to continue today before
slackening as the pressure gradient weakens tomorrow. The weak
trough will move eastward Friday.
A ridge will build into the Great Lakes region into and through
the weekend. As that ridge builds over the region, warmer than
normal temperatures will advect into Michigan. This will allow
temps to increase into next week. Anomalous warm air will bring
max temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the weekend
and 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the first half of next
week. Lows will remain below freezing through the weekend but get
above freezing next week.
- Next Chance for precipitation next week
Models continue to have the large upper level low moving through
the southern US from Sunday into early next week. A shallow
clipper will sweep through southern Canada during this timeframe.
However southern Michigan will remain solidly between these two
features and will be bifurcated. If the clipper shifts a little
further south, there is a slight chance for mixed precipitation.
However, a downward trend continues that this occurs. So not
expecting any precipitation at this time.
Zonal flow will then dominate the pattern early next week with
dry warm air continuing into mid next week. The next chance for
precipitation will be a system that moves through the upper
midwest mid next week. Models diverge on timing though ensembles
do show a decent chance for precipitation through that timeframe.
The question for that system is the position of the low. Depending
where it is situated will determine not only how much
precipitation SW michigan gets but what type. So there is some
confidence that we will see some precipitation by mid next week,
however, what type and how much remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
IR loop shows stratocu over central Lower is making steady
progress east with all but LAN/JXN clear at this point. Clearing
should occur at LAN and JXN within the next few hours. VFR
conditions are expected at the western terminals through the
period. Scattered to broken MVFR cu is expected at LAN/JXN during
the daylight hours.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
