266
FXUS63 KGRR 311903
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
303 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe chances through this evening
- Light freezing rain possible early Thursday
- Additional storm chances Thursday and Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
- Severe chances through this evening
Still keeping an eye on a line of storms just working into the
northern part of the county warning area this afternoon. This
line will slowly work south and east over the next few hours.
Winds and hail continue to be the main threats for this afternoon
and evening - with the threat being mostly over by 8-9pm or so for
west Michigan.
- Light freezing rain possible early Thursday
Big weather maker works through the western Great Lakes Region
late Wednesday with southern lower Michigan remaining mainly in
the warm sector Wednesday night into Thursday. Recent model trends
have been pulling this low track a little further to the northwest
with the colder air having a harder time getting into central
Michigan. This would keep the greatest impacts in Wisconsin and
the Upper Peninsula with an overall decreasing trend in potential
for freezing rain in the CWA compared to yesterday. Some light ice
accumulation may still occur in our far northern counties...especially
the slightly higher terrain in Osceola and Clare Counties and
maybe even eastern Lake County...so that will have to be watched
for a potential winter weather advisory for late Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Would expect brief impacts mainly between 4am
and 11am Thursday if ice materializes before temperatures warm
through the day.
- Additional storm chances Thursday and Saturday
Active pattern continues into the weekend - with additional
chances for storms Thursday and Saturday. Some severe weather
possibilities exist for both days with Saturday starting to look
like a potentially greater risk than late Thursday.
Storms aside - there will be a decent amount of rain this week
between today and Saturday. This should result in some rises on
area rivers and potentially some minor flooding in trouble spots
late this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Latest radar has storms streaming across the region with periods
of TSRA expected at all TAF sites this afternoon. The best chance
for storms will be at MKG, GRR, BIV and BTL. There remains a
chance for showers and storms at LAN and JXN, however it will be
slightly more scattered as the line moves into central Michigan.
Expect periods of IFR and lower cigs and vsbys with wind gusts of
30 to 40 kts in and around thunderstorms. Have adjusted tempo
groups for the TAF sites to adjust for latest timing of storms.
The main line will move eastward between 00Z to 02Z. Have Prob30`s
for LAN, JXN for this time. IFR ceilings will be most dominant
between 00z and 04z. Overnight a slight improvement to MVFR will
likely occur.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Hazardous winds and waves for small craft are expected much of
this week. The current SCA goes through 12Z Wednesday. There will
be a possible lull on Wednesday. Winds and waves will pick up
again Wednesday night and persist into the weekend,
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Maczko
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
