179
FXUS63 KGRR 051830
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
230 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and Thunderstorm Chances Continue into Early Monday
- Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday
- Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into
Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
- Showers and Thunderstorm Chances Continue into Early Monday
The surface low continues to impact the area today into this evening
bringing isolated to scattered showers. Mixed layer CAPE is around
500 J/kg south of I-96. This will be the area that has the best
chance to see isolated thunderstorms. Instability decreases
overnight with showers lingering into early Monday morning as the
low slowly shifts east. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible with
isolated amounts of 2-4 inches.
- Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday
High pressure gradually builds into the area Monday into Tuesday
with dry conditions expected to last into Wednesday. Highs in the
80s with lows in the 50s and 60s are expected. Winds Monday will be
from the northeast then become light and variable for Tuesday before
shifting to the southwest Wednesday.
- Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into
Thursday
Confidence continues with chances for rain and thunderstorms as a
shortwave trough and associated front move through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time severe weather is not
expected. There are some timing differences with this system as some
guidance would bring the front through slower. If this happened
shower and thunderstorm chances would linger into Friday. Otherwise
mostly dry conditions are expected Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Radar shows scattered light showers near the terminals and moving
southwest. Forcing remains present over the region with a surface
low moving across IN and an upper trough poised to move across the
lake. Daytime instability could still generate a storm or two, but
mainly over the southern TAF sites.
Given the recent rain along/south of I-96, some low ceilings and
reduced visibilities in fog are possible overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible into this evening
mainly south of Holland. Northeast winds are expected to continue
into Monday morning and then shift more to the north/northwest as
high pressure moves into the region. With this advancing high the
pressure gradient may increase enough for winds and waves to reach
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement criteria Monday
afternoon and evening.
Tuesday winds will be light and variable then shift to the southwest
Wednesday ahead of our next round of rain and thunderstorms late
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...04
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
