847
FXUS63 KGRR 092338
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
638 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Benign weather through Tuesday with a dry cold frontal passage
tonight
- System brings rain showers Wednesday followed by lake effect
rain/snow showers late week
- Conditions dry out this weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
- Benign weather through Tuesday with a dry cold frontal passage tonight
A cold front is expected to cross the area tonight into Tuesday
morning across a northwest flow regime. Moisture is lacking in the
low-levels based on BUFKIT overviews supporting a dry forecast with
cold fropa. Highs well into the 50s and possibly the low 60s in
spots are favored.
- System brings rain showers Wednesday followed by lake effect
rain/snow showers late week
A clipper system moves south of the area Wednesday with increasing
moisture bringing rain showers beginning mid-day. Increasing
northerly flow behind this system brings 850mb temps down to near
-5C, which brings a 18-20C deltaT with current lake temps. Lake
effect showers are expected, with FZLs as low as 2kft based on
BUFKIT overviews suggesting rain will mix with snow at times. North
to North-Northeast flow keeps the heaviest precipitation offshore,
though in the CWA the highest totals look to be near Big and Little
Sable points and near South Haven. Enhanced chance for snow to mix
in will occur in these areas as well, as better forcing leads to
higher rates/better wet-bulbing. There will also be several
shortwaves rounding the parent trough in place across the area that
would locally enhance precipitation based on placement and timing.
- Conditions dry out this weekend
As of now, conditions are forecast to dry out going into the
weekend, especially the late weekend. This will be driven by both
surface ridging and mid-level ridging/warm air advection ending
moisture flux for lake driven precipitation and subsidence. This
will also mark the beginning of a warmup back into the 50s after the
notably cooler mid to late week period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
VFR is expected through Tuesday morning. Winds will be generally
at or below 10 knots, from southwest tonight, becoming northwest
Tuesday morning after a cold front passes through. 30 knots of low
level wind shear is possible for a few hours late tonight around
06 Z. The HRRR and RRFS both show a small amount of fog developing
around 12 Z, however, due to stronger winds just above the
surface, confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at
this time.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...CAS/Angerman
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
