790
FXUS63 KGRR 040739
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
239 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry Today, Rain Tonight into Thursday
- Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday
- Above Normal Temperatures Into Next Week (normal highs upper 30s
to low 40s)
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
- Dry Today, Rain Tonight into Thursday
Dry conditions are expected today with light southeasterly winds
and high pressure over the area. Pressure heights will increase
into this afternoon ahead of the upper level low as it tracks
through the Plains. Positive vorticity advection and an increase
in low to mid level moisture move in this evening with the
potential for a few showers largely south of I-96. Better chances
arrive with the surface low Thursday with a deep moisture profile
and better lift. Depending on how fast rain moves in toward the
US-10 corridor Thursday morning, there could be a brief window for
some freezing rain (20-30 percent). As the low departs late
Thursday afternoon low level moisture lingers potentially
producing some drizzle overnight. Probabilities of a half inch or
more are 30 to 60 percent south of M-46.
- Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday
A warm front moves through Friday with associated positive
vorticity advection and moisture bringing with it another chance
for showers early in the day. Instability builds into Friday night
with a strengthening low level jet in the southwest flow ahead of
a deep upper level trough. The low to mid level jet could be in
the 50-70 knot range by Friday night with MUCAPE values around 500
to 1000 J/kg into Saturday morning. The timing of the front
varies and will impact our risk for severe weather Friday night
into Saturday morning. Keep up to date with the forecast as we
fine tune timing and the potential for severe storms.
- Above Normal Temperatures Into Next Week (normal highs upper 30s
to low 40s)
Today high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to
mid 50s with lows tonight around 30 to 40. Thursday will be cooler
with the rainy weather and cloud cover, but after the warm front
moves through Friday highs in the 50s and 60s are expected with
the potential to tie or break high and warm low temperature
records Friday into Saturday. These warm temperatures continue
into next week but the second half next week looks to cool down as
seen in the long range ensemble members.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
IR loop shows a thin band of stratus near I-96 that`s been
wavering over GRR. The band is showing signs of diminishing and
we`ll be optimistic with ceilings overnight. Some fog has
developed at JXN and that`ll persist overnight, but likely not get
much more restrictive due to the higher cloud canopy over far
southern Lower from convection to the south.
Look for VFR conditions much of Wednesday. However, RH cross
sections show abundant low level moisture advecting northward
Wednesday evening which will result in MVFR/IFR ceilings.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
