841
FXUS63 KGRR 021148
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
648 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow moving through the area today
- Mainly dry mid week with temperatures nearing normals
- Snow Thursday night into Friday
- Turning colder again next weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
- Light snow moving through the area today
A mid level shortwave is approaching the area from Wisconsin this
morning. Down at the surface, the wave is driving a cold front
towards Southwest Lower Michigan. The front is stretched from
northeast to southwest across Wisconsin at 08z. Ahead of the
system a warm air advection band of snow can be seen spreading
into Western Lower Michigan as of 820z. The snow is best depicted
in the models on the 285k and 290k isentropic surfaces where
strong upglide is noted in conjunction with low condensation
pressure deficits. The snow is being enhanced by the lake with a
significant flare in intensity noted in the past half hour. The
lake is unstable enough to produce lake effect snow outright with
delta T`s in the middle teens C.
The expectation is that the warm air advection band of snow will
work quickly to the east in the next 3-6 hours exiting the U.S.
Highway 127 corridor in the mid/late morning hours. The heaviest
snow is ongoing now and will continue for a few more hours before
sweeping east/losing intensity. The depth of moisture dwindles
significantly by mid to late morning and in fact the DGZ becomes
unsaturated which may lead to some freezing drizzle this
afternoon. Freezing drizzle is being reported upstream in WI/IL.
As for the snow, the amounts being forecast have not changed with
a trace to a half inch forecast in most areas and potentially an
inch or two in West Central Lower Michigan from Holland northward
up the shore, including areas just inland from Coopersville to
Newaygo to Baldwin. Some very marginal lake effect snow may
persist into tonight. Any amounts would be very light and likely
contained to areas near the points of West Central Lower Michigan.
- Mainly dry mid week with temperatures nearing normals
An uneventful mid week period is expected which may be welcomed by
many given what the last 2 weeks of January brought the area.
While we are in a northwest flow during this time aloft with
occasional shortwaves, the surface pattern will be dominated by
high pressure. Very little in the way of precipitation is expected
from Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the
20s with lows in the teens which will is very close to normals for
this time of year.
- Snow Thursday night into Friday
A clipper system is still forecast to move through the area during
this time frame, but the trend has been for the low to pass well
off to the north now. Without the boost synoptically from the low
snowfall amounts will be less. We still could end up seeing a 2-4
inch snow towards Lake Michigan with a boost via lake effect, but
many areas may end up with 2 inches or less. So, the weekend will
be bookended with chances for snow neither of which should reach
moderate impacts. Impacts will mainly be some slowed travel for a
fairly short period of time.
- Turning colder again next weekend
Both the GFS and ECMWF bring a surge of colder air into the Great
Lakes region Friday night into Saturday. The GFS drives the cold
air directly into Lower Michigan where as the ECMWF is more of a
glancing blow. Saturday looks to be a day like the recent past
with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits. The
cold air does not stay long as it is dislodged by a push of above
zero C air at 850mb out of the plains states by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
A swath of snow is moving through Southwest Lower Michigan at 12z,
with ceilings on the decline. We expect ceilings to drop into the
MVFR and then IFR categories this morning as the snow works from
west to east ahead of a cold front. The snow itself is dipping
conditions to IFR in many areas at 12z. The snow will exit the
area between 14z and 17z. A several hour period in the wake of the
snow may yield some freezing drizzle. By mid to late afternoon,
the snow and freezing drizzle should be coming to an end with MVFR
ceilings persisting into the overnight hours. Winds will shift
from the southwest to the west with the passage of the cold front
is most areas.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
