268
FXUS63 KGRR 281505
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1005 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect continues through Thursday night
- Ridging provides quieter weather finally over the weekend
- Temperatures warming back towards normal early next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
We extended the winter wx advisory through 10 am Thursday and
added Mason, Oceana, and Muskegon. ECMWF/GFS both show another
short wave moving southeast across the lake this afternoon. Given
good over- lake instability, snow showers should increase in
coverage and intensity. Bufkit omega shows a couple of bullseyes
within the DGZ during this time and HREF snow progs suggest a few
more inches of snow accumulation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
- Lake effect continues through Thursday night
Today will be the 15 straight day in Grand Rapids of at least a
trace of snow. During that 2 week period we have measured 30.2
inches of snow here at the NWS Grand Rapids office. So, if it
seems like winter has been on a roll of late you are right. We
have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10am for Ottawa,
Allegan, Van Buren and Kalamazoo Counties. The question this
morning is whether to let it ride or cancel it. Have made the
decision to maintain the headline. The reasoning is that shortwave
energy upstream is approaching Lake Michigan from Wisconsin and
we expect a bit of a boost to the ongoing activity as we approach
and move through the morning commute. Moisture is not all that
deep, but sufficient with model data and our VWP confirming 5,000
feet of depth. The DGZ is completely contained within this cloud
layer with lift seen in the BUFKIT overviews for the remainder of
the night and much of the morning. Light snow will continue and we
have seen an increase in intensity and an aerial expansion since
midnight. Expect it to uptick a bit more as the shortwave gives
the LES a synoptic scale boost. The snow will not be heavy, 1-2
inches, but that snow combined with temperatures in the single
digits to lower teens will continue to make for impacted travel.
The snow will be lighter in other areas today.
Lake effect snow will continue tonight, Thursday and Thursday
night as well. The flow during this time frame will slowly be
veering to the north which will eventually take the lake effect
snow off shore, but that will not happen until Thursday evening
into Thursday overnight. The snow during this time frame will be
light but it will continue.
The cold weather will remain in place through Friday as 850mb
temperatures hover a couple degrees either side of -20C. 850mb
temperatures this cold result in cold temperatures at the surface
resulting in travel impacts. So, look for snow packed and icy road
conditions across Western Lower Michigan to continue through the
remainder of the work week (Fri).
We are likely looking at the need for Cold Weather headlines
Thursday night into Friday morning. Wind chill values are forecast
to reach the -15F to -25F range. Much of the area will see these
values with the exception being down towards I-94.
- Ridging provides quieter weather finally over the weekend
Once the lake effect snow goes off shore Thursday night we are
looking at a more quiet weather pattern...finally. Friday through
Sunday will be dominated by surface ridging and what should be dry
conditions.
- Temperatures warming back towards normal early next week
Temperatures at 850mb begin a slow warming trend starting Friday
night. 850mb temperatures over GRR Fri afternoon will be near -22C.
Those temperatures warm to around -10C by Monday and will push to
around -5C on Tuesday. What this means at the surface is that
highs that have been in the teens will rise at least into the 20s
on Monday and may push to around 30 on Tuesday. That will allow
road crews to attack the snow and ice buildup on area roads that
the current temps do not (salt is ineffective at the current
temperatures). Normal highs for this time of year are around 30
and we will finally get back towards normal early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 705 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
Lake effect snow showers will continue both today and tonight,
with the most intense snow showers likely occurring this morning
(12z-17z). MVFR conditions will be prevalent through the next 24
hours with fairly widespread 2000-3000ft ceilings hanging on.
Visibilities will range from VFR to occasionally MVFR inland at
LAN and JXN to MVFR occasionally IFR to the west at MKG, AZO and
GRR. Tonight the winds in the cloud layer will veer from a more
westerly direction to more of a north trajectory. As such, the
clouds and snow showers will tend to migrate closer to the
lakeshore. Inland TAF sites will trend VFR tonight. The lake
effect should be less potent tonight coming up, so even at the
lakeshore it will be trending better with time.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-043-
050-056-064-071-072.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
