575
FXUS63 KGRR 041704
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
104 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and Warm Today
- Rain and Thunderstorms Return Friday into Saturday
- Mostly Dry Sunday into Next Week, Becoming Warmer
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026
- Dry and Warm Today
Another dry and warm summer day as the upper level ridge remains
over the area. Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s across much
of the area with 70s to near 80 along the lakeshore. Low dew
points will keep heat index values at or below the air
temperatures. Southwest winds pick up this afternoon with gusts
around 20 t0 25 mph.
- Rain and Thunderstorms Return Friday into Saturday
The upper level ridge breaks down tonight into Friday with a
shortwave trough expected to moves through Saturday. Ahead of the
trough moisture advection with precipitable water values climbing
between 1.4 to 1.8 inches into the afternoon. Convergence in the
wind field at 850mb to 700mb may spark off some showers Friday
morning with the potential for thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening.
Friday night into Saturday instability builds with the low level
jet working back into the area. 1000 to 2000 J/kg and 40 knots of
shear will allow for some more organized strong to severe storms
until the cold front moves through Saturday. Best chances for any
stronger storms will be along and south of I-96.
- Mostly Dry Sunday into Next Week, Becoming Warmer
High pressure with an upper level ridge builds back in for Sunday.
Looking at different ensemble members there are some signs that
there could be a week shortwave that moves through Tuesday into
Wednesday. Any precipitation looks light, but overall there is a
higher probability of conditions remaining dry in this pattern.
Therefore the probability of precipitation next week is limited to
20 to 30 percent at any one time.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the week with some spots
potentially hitting 90 degrees by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026
VFR continues into tonight ahead of a front that will move through
the region on Friday. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
could begin impacting mainly MKG/GRR/AZO by 18z Friday. Given some
uncertainty regarding intensity and coverage, PROB30s are the
appropriate way to handle the threat until getting into the
16z-18z time frame for these sites when SHRA may be predominant.
With questions regarding the degree of instability present, will
hold off mention on TSRA for now through the 18z ending of these
TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026
Southerly winds build with high pressure to the east and low
pressure to the west. Some isolated gusts north of Whitehall may
approach Small Craft Advisory levels, otherwise the higher gusts
are anticipated to remain over land today. As the pressure
gradient increases into Friday, Small Craft Advisory conditions
become more likely. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible Friday
into Saturday before the cold front moves through Saturday
afternoon. Some strong to severe storms are possible.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Hoving
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
