321
FXUS63 KGRR 170458
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1158 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog expected again tonight
- Mixed precipitation possible with thunderstorms Wednesday
- Mixed precipitation with thunderstorms possible again late week
- Low chances for accumulating snow this weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
- Fog expected again tonight
There is disparity among guidance sources about how much fog we
should expect overnight and Tuesday morning. Given that the
environment won`t be terribly different from previous mornings, we
should expect a repeat of at least some fog. The NBM deterministic
guidance is very aggressive in advertising widespread visibilities
(vsbys) of a quarter mile or less. Other short range guidance,
including the HREF, shows around a 50 percent chance of vsbys
dropping below a mile. Surface wind guidance suggests a bit of a
col setting up somewhere across our southwest forecast area (that
is, far southwest Lower MI). This could promote localized dense
fog - and perhaps not coincidentally, this is where visibilities
are forecast to be the lowest.
- Mixed precipitation possible with thunderstorms Wednesday
Model guidance has been consistent with keeping a 10-20 percent chance
of accumulating freezing rain (FZRA) across our far northeastern zones,
including Clare and Osceola counties. This looks like a case where
the leading edge of precipitation approaching from the south encounters
reinforcing cold, dry easterly flow just north of the lifting warm
front. This would provide a brief window of FZRA with accumulations
on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch. The warm front
should make steady progress north through the CWA during the day,
which should greatly limit the impacts with any ice accumulation
that manages to occur.
SPC has included general thunder for our entire CWA in the latest
Day 3 outlook. This agrees with a wide range of guidance sources,
including both NCAR and NSSL Machine Learning (ML) models, as well
as with deterministic guidance such as the last couple runs of ECMWF
Lightning Flash Density. Probabilities for severe thunderstorms
are quite low...we estimate 5-10 percent chances of this occurring.
Highs Wednesday still look quite warm with NBM giving a greater than
50 percent of maximum temperatures reaching 60F along I-96 (away from
the immediate lakeshore) and a greater than 80 percent chance of this
happening along and south of I-94. The AIGEFS is not quite as aggressive,
keeping our southern forecast area more in the 50s. Regardless, we
have good confidence that Wednesday will see temperatures somewhere
around 20 degrees above normal.
- Mixed precipitation with thunderstorms possible again late week
There is significant disparity among the model solutions regarding
what to expect with the next wave of low pressure, but the most plausible
scenario at this point is precipitation lifting north into the area
starting Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms will also be possible
during this time. Minimum temperatures Friday morning drop below
freezing up towards US-10, where there could be a mix of rain and snow,
and this wintry mix is expected to spread southwards during the day
Friday. This is admittedly a rather precise description, but one that
is quite subject to change given the relatively poor predictability
at this forecast range.
- Low chances for accumulating snow this weekend
Impacts are expected to be limited this weekend. Snow eventually
becomes the most likely precipitation type with little to no
accumulations expected. Temperatures at 850mb won`t be particularly
cold; medium range ensemble guidance shows only a 40 percent
chance of less than -10C, which is marginally favorable for lake
effect. Highs should climb into the lower/mid 30s both days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
Overall the forecast remains on track with areas of fog
developing overnight into Tuesday morning. MVFR/IFR visibilities
are likely with the best chance for LIFR visibilities between
9-13Z Tuesday. Ceilings could fall below 1000 feet. Already seeing
MKG reporting FEW- SCT003. Conditions gradually improve to VFR
13-17Z from south to north. Toward the end of the forecast period
showers move in with ceilings lowering to IFR values Tuesday
night.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
