862
FXUS63 KGRR 191732
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1232 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazardous Travel Conditions into Early Tuesday Morning
- Additional Rounds of Snow Wednesday into Friday
- Rare and Potentially Near Record-Setting Cold This Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
- Hazardous Travel Conditions into Early Tuesday Morning
Phase one of the winter storm has been underway early this morning
with lake effect snow showers persisting as 1000-700mb flow off
the lake has transitioned to westerly and will soon go WNW to NW
later this morning, all with a deeply saturated column as
inversion heights are around 10k ft and will remain so until early
afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur from now
through about 18z. Snow will continue past 18z but lighter,
however the compensating factor then will be higher wind gusts.
Nam12 and RAP13 925-850mb and DGZ omegas have been solid at 6-10
ubar/s or even higher than 10 ubar/s at times.
Phase two of this event is when the winds kick in. Already we are
seeing the wind shift occur at the lakeshore and into the US 131
corridor with gusts of 20-30 kt and these winds will go up this
morning and spread all the way inland. As such, snow and blowing
snow will extend far inland as well. The worst travel conditions
will occur from now through the evening commute. The highly
powdery nature of the snow will blow sideways and fresh snow will
get lofted off the snowpack. Winds gusting in the 35-40 mph range
will lead to extensive loss of visibility and whiteout conditions
at times. Snow being lofted off vehicles and around vehicles that
are traveling will add to the hazardous conditions. Snow intensity
eases up this evening and the winds will start to decrease.
However, based on 00z guidance the snow showers will continue
tonight into Tuesday morning as a final vort lobe at 500mb moves
over the lake and provides about a 6 hour synoptic boost in the
03z-09z Tue window and recovery of inversion heights back to 10k
ft, leading to a perk up of snow shower intensity even as flake
size diminishes due to the DGZ being near the ground.
Snow showers will wind down on Tuesday with little in the way of
additional accumulation. In general, travel conditions should be
improving around the time of the Tuesday morning commute and
especially into the midday period. Wind chill readings will likely
drop close to -15 across US 10 early Tuesday morning and as such
will issue a Cold Weather Advisory from Lake County east to Clare
County.
- Additional Rounds of Snow Wednesday into Friday
Warm advection snow is very likely on Wednesday as an upper trough
swings through, a LLJ in association with a strong 850mb thermal
gradient sets up across MI/IL/IN, and a weak surface low moves
overhead. This will be a quick hitting but fairly impactful system
with 2"-5" over a 12 hour period Wednesday morning into early
afternoon. Snowfall rates of a half inch per hour or close to one
inch per hour at times are possible.
More upper troughing and CAA at 850mb over the lake late Wednesday
night into early Thursday may help regenerate lake effect snow
showers with additional accumulations in W to WNW flow. By Friday,
lake effect snow will take on NW to NNW orientation and thus
migrate closer to the lake.
- Rare and Potentially Near Record-Setting Cold This Weekend
ECE guidance has been repeatedly indicating a rare bout of truly
impressive cold coming our way Friday into the weekend. The Arctic
Oscillation (AO) appears to be a major player in the longwave
pattern and surface pressure anomalies setting up over the
northern United States later this week and weekend. The AO is
already negative and is about to drop further into some impressive
territory, potentially around an index of -5. As the AO gets
increasingly negative, we typically get increasingly colder. ECE
probabilities for 850mb temperatures to drop to -30C or colder are
now 80-100% across the U.P. and 60-80% near and north of US 10.
Various deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS have the -30C
isotherm (or colder) pushing through the entire Lower Peninsula.
The ECMWF and GFS push air temperatures at the surface into
subzero territory during the day Friday behind an impressive
Arctic front that sweeps through late Thursday night or early
Friday morning. Both models are indicating wind chill readings
getting down to -25 or colder during the day. By Saturday, ECE
mean high temperatures are showing highs around 0F with low
temperatures of -10 to -20 across the region. At GRR for example,
over 50% of the ECE members show -20 or colder and nearly 20% of
the members show -24 or colder, which would tie the coldest
reading ever recorded at Grand Rapids. Plenty could change
between now and then but given the rarity and strength of the
signal it is important to mention, and temperatures this cold can
cause some significant issues to cold water pipes.
Very cold temperatures are shown by the ECE to continue through
the weekend and into the following week with additional subzero
nightly readings possible. This will be something to keep an eye
on with future forecast updates.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
MKG remains mired in 1/4sm visbys due to the combination of snow
and blowing snow, with most other sites seeing IFR conditions for
the same reason. Slow improvement is expected this
afternoon/evening as winds decrease with snow showers continuing
through the TAF period. Can`t rule out LIFR conditions at
MKG/GRR/AZO this evening and tonight thanks to the very powdery
nature of the snow, but with low confidence have maintained the
prevailing IFR with this package. Eastward, MVFR conditions are
likely with the potential for IFR under any heavier snow showers
that make it inland. Between snow showers and lake effect
stratocu, the best improvement any sites should see tonight into
Tuesday is MVFR. Gusts to 30 knots are expected through this
evening before diminishing tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
Gale Warning and Heavy Freezing Spray Warning continue as winds
increase today. The freezing spray threat should end on Tuesday as
winds diminish.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
Tuesday for MIZ038>040.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ039-040-
045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hoving
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
