091
FXUS63 KGRR 301221
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
721 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very cold air and chances for lake effect through tonight
- Next chance for snow Sunday night into Monday
- Temperatures warming towards normal next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026
- Very cold air and chances for lake effect through tonight
Very cold air has settled into the region this morning with -20C
to -22C air in place at 850mb. The -20C level is the threshold
where people very much notice the cold and consider it to be
cold even by Michigan standards. It is also the threshold where
road/travel issues increase as a result of surface air
temperatures dropping below values where salt has very limited
effectiveness. Thankfully there will not be much precipitation
today to complicate travel issues. Air temperatures as of 330am
have hit -23F at Leota up in Clare County. Most air temperatures
across interior Central Lower Michigan have fallen below zero.
Temperatures will continue to drop this morning given an
increasingly good radiational cooling setup as clouds and lake
effect snow showers end/move out of the area. The Cold Weather
Advisory will continue through 10am. Highs today will be in the
lower to middle teens F.
Lake effect will continue to peel away from Western Lower Michigan
for much of the day moving more towards WI/IL. This will allow for
at least some sunshine for most areas of Southwest Lower
Michigan. The flow over Northern Lake Michigan does start to back
more to the northwest which will push the band back inland near
the points in the late afternoon and evening hours. The band of
snow will hug the shoreline tonight before finally moving offshore
for good overnight. As the band of snow moves back ashore this
afternoon through a portion of tonight we could see local
accumulations of an inch or two, especially near the points. It
will not be as cold tonight coming up, but we will still be well
below normal, down towards zero in many areas.
- Next chance for snow Sunday night into Monday
A shortwave trough in the mid levels will push a weak cold front
through the region in the Sunday night and Monday time frame.
Overall we are not expecting significant snow with this system
given its weak nature and overall lack of deep moisture. There may
be some slight lake enhancement to the snow north of Muskegon, but
delta T`s are very marginal. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
20s to around 30 which will be warm compared to some of what we
have been through this past week.
- Temperatures warming towards normal next week
850mb temperatures will range from -7C to -10C Tuesday through
Thursday which should will bring temperatures much closer to
normal which is highs around 30 and lows around 15. As for
sensible weather, we do have an upper trough traversing the area
around the Wednesday time frame. Surface low pressure looks to be
off to our south however, which is where the much higher chances
for precipitation will be. Overall next week looks to feature more
typical winter weather...some small chance for snow and near
normal temperatures which will come as good news for many.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 720 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026
We start Friday with mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions across the
area at 12z. Most sites are VFR, but there is some MVFR ceilings
and visibilities across Southern Lower Michigan at the I-94 TAF
sites. These lower conditions are associated with a weak surface
low that is centered near South Bend, Indiana. The low will
continue to drift south today taking these lower conditions with
it. A mix of clear skies and VFR ceilings will drift in from the
north. As we head towards evening and especially into tonight
lower ceilings (MVFR) will redevelop both off of Lake Michigan and
pressing in on northerly winds. These clouds will try to clear out
late tonight. Bottom line is that changeable conditions are
expected the next 24 hours, especially in terms of ceilings.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
