477
FXUS63 KGRR 230438
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1138 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No major impacts to travel this week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025
- No major impacts to travel this week
Despite radar imagery showing banded precip across Lower
Michigan, very little if any hydrometeors have made it to the
surface so far today. Forecast soundings suggest the column will
moisten up this evening with light snow or mixed precip possible
across the northern zones where temperatures will fall back into
the lower 30s. Given current radar trends and the overall modest
uplift associated isentropic ascent/warm advection overnight, we
expect any precip amounts to be light. Some untreated roads across
the higher elevations of Osceola and Clare Counties could be
slippery, otherwise no impacts expected.
There is a low chance of snow or mixed precip late Wednesday night
across the central and southern forecast area, but surface
temperatures near or above freezing will mitigate any potential
travel impacts. Low pressure tracks across Lower Michigan on
Friday but once again, temperatures are marginal for any frozen of
freezing precip to cause problems.
Truly cold air and lake effect snow does not return until early
next week, for Sunday and Monday when accumulating snow seems
likely as an upper low moves just north of Lower Michigan with
inversion heights around 10 kft, cyclonic flow, and -19C air at
850 mb combines to bring a shot of real winter.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025
A warm front lifting towards Southwest Lower Michigan from IA/Il
will bring MVFR ceilings to the TAF sites for the remainder of the
night. We should see ceilings in the 2000-3000ft range slowly
drift downward into the 1000-2000ft range later tonight. Rain
showers are expected at least in the 06z to 09z time frame. After
09z, the rain should be shifting off to the east. MVFR ceilings
will remain in place at 12z, but by 16z or so we should see
conditions become VFR. VFR weather is then expected for the most
part throughout the remaining duration of the TAFs, or through 06z
Wednesday. Winds from the south at 5-15 knots tonight will
gradually veer to the west on Tuesday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
