948
FXUS63 KGRR 142346
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
646 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Locally Heavy Snow Through Tonight Near The Lakeshore
- Lake Enhanced Clipper Brings Widespread Snow Friday
- Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into Early Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
- Locally Heavy Snow Through Tonight Near The Lakeshore
Radar shows a few bands of moderate to heavy lake effect snow have
developed over Lake Michigan clipping several of our lakeshore
counties. A perusal of the 12z high resolution guidance
predominantly suggests that these bands should shift west this
evening. Gave consideration to upgrading Van Buren County to a
Winter Storm Warning, however radar and 18z CAM trends continue to
support the band shifting east into Berrien County which is
already starting to occur. Isolated warning level snow amounts are
possible in extreme western Van Buren County but confidence in
the band persisting for enough time is not high enough to upgrade
to a warning. This is highly sensitive to small shifts in wind
direction Expect 4-7" of snow across western Van Buren, Allegan,
Muskegon, Oceana, and Mason Counties with isolated higher totals
possible. The eastern portions of these counties and the rest of
West Michigan look to see 3 inches or less. We then get a brief
break in the snow for Thursday as ridging takes over.
- Lake Enhanced Clipper Brings Widespread Snow Friday
The arrival of a potent shortwave and an associated clipper brings
our next snowmaker into the region early Friday morning. Widespread
snow continues through the day on Friday before transitioning to
lake effect snow showers Saturday morning. The lightest snow
amounts will be near US-127, and the highest amounts will be west
of US-131 where the greatest lake enhancement will be. Isolated
areas west of US-131 may see totals in excess of 6 inches. Exact
amounts will be fine-tuned over the next several forecast cycles
as the current winter weather event winds down.
- Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into Early Next Week
The trough driving the current cold snap remains centered over
the eastern CONUS through at least mid next week. A setup like
this is commonly associated with multiple rounds of lake
effect/enhanced snow with increased intensity at times as
shortwaves reinforce the cold airmass and provide forcing.This
will be reflected at the surface as several clippers into mid next
week. Accumulation will add up through the weekend into early
next week, though questions on timing of waves and associated
adjustments to the low-level wind exist affecting placement of the
greatest snowfall totals. The other concern is the enhanced cold
snap early next week as 850 mb temps crash well into the negative
twenties Celsius. This will translate to highs maxing out in the
teens and wind chills potentially dropping below zero at night
early next week, notably colder than3 recent conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
Snow showers continue across the region, but are beginning to
diminish as a strong short wave moves east. We`ll see the snow
showers continue to diminish overnight with VFR cigs returning
after 09z and continuing through the rest of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
The Gale Warning remains in good shape with gusts to 40 knots being
observed today at our shoreline observation sites. Winds subside
below gales tonight with conditions hazardous to small craft
persisting at least into the weekend. Freezing spray is also a
concern for mariners given the very cold airmass overhead.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-043-
050-064-071.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
