550
FXUS63 KGRR 221154
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
654 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow Ending this Morning, Another Round this Afternoon
- Bitterly Cold Starting Tonight
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
- Snow Ending this Morning, Another Round this Afternoon
Water vapor imagery when combined with the airmass RGB satellite
product shows a significant intrusion of high PV stratospheric air
down into the troposphere that is progressing eastward over far
southwest Lower MI at this time. This PV intrusion is providing
both lift and conditional instability to the ongoing LES that is
near its peak intensity. Snowfall rates will likely taper slightly
as we get closer to the morning commute, but travel will still
challenging. Also, given that the PV intrusion extends well west
into WI where convective snow showers are also ongoing (without
any help needed from Lake MI), it is unlikely that snow over SW
Lower MI will shut off completely until we get closer to noon.
Travel, particularly in the more exposed areas, will remain
challenging today due to some blowing and drifting of snow aided
by wind gusts from the west approaching 30 mph this afternoon.
Additionally, model guidance is hinting at a lower tropospheric
trough swinging through the area this afternoon and dropping
another inch or two of snow with greatest amounts displaced more
inland towards the US-131 corridor. So, be prepared for possible
rapid changes in visibility, especially on north-south oriented
roads (such as US-131) where both falling and blowing snow can be
expected to negatively impact the afternoon/evening commute.
- Bitterly Cold Thursday night into Saturday
Have upgraded the extreme cold watch to a cold weather advisory due
to a very high certainty of criteria (apparent temperature at or
below minus 15F) being met. The most severe conditions will be
Friday morning, however advisory criteria will likely continue to
be met the entire day (with the possible exception of extreme SW
Lower MI that will be underneath a plume of lake modified air).
It is not out of the question that parts of the advisory will later
need to be upgraded to an extreme cold warning (apparent
temperatures at or below minus 25F) for some local areas,
particularly farther north. Some guidance such as the HREF and EC
Ensemble has been well into this territory, but there is not yet
enough consensus in the full model suite to go this drastic just
yet. For example, the NBM 5.0 for Grand Rapids shows about a 40
percent chance of apparent temperatures even reaching minus 20F
Friday morning.
Regardless of which headlines are in effect, the key takeaway here
is that there will be dangerous cold in place beginning early Friday
morning, about 24 hours from now, and this will last into Saturday.
Please refer to the recently issued NPWGRR product for suggested
preparedness and precautionary actions to take.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
Radar trends indicate a gradual west to east end to snow. However,
there is a final band pivoting through that will affect the GRR
and LAN terminals in the immediate term with brief LIFR visibility
restrictions.
Otherwise, MVFR visibility restrictions can be expected for the
latter part of this morning in less organized snow showers. We
then expect a brief lull in precipitation until early this
afternoon when a north-south axis of snow centered along the
US-131 corridor and including the GRR and AZO terminals will
develop. Temporary IFR visibility restrictions can be expected in
this area.
Tonight, as an arctic cold front moves through the area, lake
effect snow will resume but be more confined to the lakeshore.
Visibility restrictions are in question because snow intensity
will be limited; however, flake size will be small and this is
more efficient at scattering light and impacting viewing
distances. For now will advertise MVFR restrictions, but it is
possible that MKG especially could drop to IFR after 03Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
No changes planned to the current forecast and headlines.
Dangerous gale and heavy freezing spray conditions will continue
through today and tonight. Freezing spray will last even longer
thanks to bitterly cold air crossing Lake Michigan.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ037-
038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
MARINE...TJT
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
