969
FXUS63 KGRR 021032
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
632 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers ending, then dry for a few days
- Mid week precipitation chances and beyond
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
- Showers ending, then dry for a few days
Regional radar shows much of the rain as dissipated north of a
Kalamazoo to Mason line. South of there, local radar showed a
deformation band of light to moderate rain. This will persist this
morning before it moves southeast out of the cwa late this
morning as the upper trough axis swings through. High pressure
will then build into the cwa and we`ll see sunny weather return
Monday and Tuesday.
Highs will top out around 80 late this afternoon and then we`ll be
in the lower to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday. Humidity will be held
in check Monday and Tuesday as dewpoints will remain in the 50s.
- Mid week precipitation chances and beyond
The upper ridge will move east during the middle of the week and
an upper trough pattern will develop and persist through next
weekend. That`s generally an unsettled pattern for the Great Lakes
as short waves rotate through the trough and act as a catalyst
for shower/storm development. Additionally, the upper trough
helps to push cold fronts through the region and they too help to
generate storms. Also true, is this type of pattern is difficult
to pin down timing wise as some of the short waves can be
innocuous and some more pronounced. So, as we look toward mid
week, models are showing a cold front drifting south across the
Lower Peninsula. We`ll likely see some shower/storm development
Wednesday afternoon/evening and then again over the weekend as
another front moves south across the state.
Given upper troughing in place, highs will remain in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
Skies are beginning to clear closer to the lake with large pockets
of VFR noted in observations. Think there will be some bouncing
between categories this morning as the low moves away to the east,
however. Overall, though, a gradual improvement in ceilings is
expected today. Expect some fog to develop after 06z tonight, due
to the abundant moisture near the surface from the recent rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
No changes to the marine headlines. As upper troughing moves east,
high pressure will build into the Great Lakes. Typically, we see
an increase in winds and waves as this occurs and today shouldn`t
be any different.
Yesterday, waves were highest off shore. However as winds become
northwesterly today, those higher waves will begin to move closer
to the shore and become hazardous to beach goers.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
late tonight for MIZ037-043-050-056-064.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ844.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday
for LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
