280
FXUS63 KGRR 071127
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
627 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drying out and gradual warming through Tuesday
- Next chance of rain Wednesday with another cool down to follow
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Drying out and gradual warming through Tuesday
Last vestiges of the upper low and lake effect rain showers have
shifted just east of the forecast area this morning. These showers
are on the far western edge of the upper low, and are associated
with higher level moisture with the occluded low. Plenty of low
level moisture remains across the forecast area this morning. We
will see this tend to move out/mix out as the upper low continues to
rotate east.
We remain on the anti-cyclonic side of the upper level jet from
today right on through Tuesday. This will limit the stratocumulus
clouds and rain chances overall. We do remain close enough to the
northern branch of the upper jet that short waves embedded in that
flow and associated sfc fronts will brush the area. A couple of
these fronts move through early and then late Sunday. There is no
appreciable moisture with these fronts for our area, as the source
region will be over the mid and upper Plains.
High pressure then builds in slowly for Monday, and sticks around
through Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures rise to as warm as around 8C on
Tuesday. These temperatures aloft will support max sfc temps well
above average at least in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
- Next chance of rain Wednesday with another cool down to follow
Things become a bit unsettled around Wednesday and are likely to
remain unsettled through next Friday. As the upper ridge axis moves
east of the forecast area by Wednesday, we are likely to see two
decent pieces of energy move toward the area and likely consolidate
into one larger upper low.
We will see one wave come eastward out of the mid-Plains. Another
stronger upper wave dives SE from Canada around the same time. The
models have been showing this occurring beginning around the
Wednesday time frame. The details are likely a little uncertain as
is the case anytime you have phasing systems as exact timing of each
one will dictate the time of phasing.
Generally speaking, rain chances will arrive on Wednesday in advance
of the upper waves. Much of the synoptic precipitation shifts east
by Thursday as the new upper low induces cyclogenesis over the East
Coast.
What we see here is colder air dropping in for Thursday and Friday.
This is likely to produce some diurnal showers, and lake effect as
850 mb temperatures drop to around -2 to -3C, allowing for
sufficient instability in the lower levels, and deep instability
under the cold pool aloft. Max temps are likely to cool off to just
the 40s late in the week once again like the current pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
Low clouds continue to dominate over all of the terminals this
morning. We continue to expect they will remain in place and MVFR
through early afternoon. At that point, they will likely scatter
out/move east of the area and will become VFR.
The evening and overnight hours will feature mainly clear skies.
Winds from the SW will increase, especially at KMKG overnight with
a wind off of the lake. Late in this period, there is a fairly
good signal by multiple independent sets of data that low stratus
clouds will move in at all of the sites. To account for this, we
have brought in a bkn008 layer between 10-11z.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
