484
FXUS63 KGRR 311223
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
723 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quieter next 7 days with some moderation in temperatures
- Clipper system moves through Sunday night into Monday
- Another clipper system moves through Thurs night and Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
- Quieter next 7 days with some moderation in temperatures
We have had some light snow after midnight which makes the 18th
straight day of at least a trace of snow at the NWS Grand Rapids
office. During those 18 days we have measured 32 inches of snow.
To say the least, it has been active. Today will also mark 14
straight days being below the freezing mark (32f). If you are
tired of the cold and active winter weather the next 7 days are
an improvement. We will see highs work back into the 20s and we
will push towards the freezing mark on a few days as well. We will
have much better driving conditions overall as some sunshine and
moderating temperatures will allow for road crews to apply salt
which will be more effective. Two main system are in the pattern,
both of which are clippers, one on Sunday night/Monday and the
other Thursday night/Friday.
- Clipper system moves through Sunday night into Monday
The first clipper will move through Sunday night into Monday with
a shearing upper wave and moisture that is not all that deep or
sustained in time. There will be enough lift and moisture however
to produce some snow across the entire forecast area ranging from
a half inch near Lansing and Jackson to an inch or two along the
Lake Michigan shoreline. Delta T`s are just enough around 13C to
aid in lake enhanced snow across Western Lower Michigan. The
highest snow totals will be found from Grand Haven north up the
shore due to southwest flow and the fact that the colder are will
be found there. This will not be a significant snow, especially
given what we have experienced the past two weeks. That said, the
Monday morning commute will likely be affected from the Grand
Rapids area to the north and west.
- Another clipper system moves through Thurs night and Friday
A stronger clipper system is forecast to move through the region
Thursday night into Friday. The early week system a 1010mb low
passing well off to our north over Ontario. The end of the week
system as a 997mb low moving through Lower Michigan. The heaviest
snow with clipper systems are usually near the track of the low.
This system is 6 days out and as such there are model differences.
The GFS tracks the low north of us, while the ECWMF takes the low
on a further south track right through Southwest Lower Michigan.
The GFS track would bring us some snow but amounts would be
light. The ECMWF track would bring several inches of snow to the
bulk of the forecast area. Suffice it to say we will be watching
trends with this system.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 723 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
High pressure is located just upstream of the area this morning
centered over portions of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Ahead of
the high, winds over Lower Michigan are from the north-northeast.
This flow is resulting in lake stratocumulus streaming into all
of the TAF sites at 12z. Ceilings range from 1,500ft to 2,500ft.
Through the course of the day these low clouds (the MVFR ceilings)
will push to the south and east, first clearing out of MKG this
morning. By this evening, the lower clouds will have exited all of
the TAF sites and mainly clear skies will then prevail through
tonight. Winds today will generally be from the north at 5-10
knots.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
