695
FXUS63 KGRR 071850
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
250 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fairly Quiet Weather into the Weekend
- More Heavy Rain possible early Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
- Fairly Quiet Weather into the Weekend
Cold high pressure is in place tonight but warm advection gets
underway Wednesday morning with light snow chances across the
northwest forecast area early Wednesday morning as a warm
advection "wing" is depicted by the high resolution models.
Forecast soundings still show a wedge of dry air persisting in the
lowest couple thousand feet, so it is the classic forecast problem
of whether the precip will evaporate aloft, i.e., the "virga
storm" or reach the surface. Will have low chance POPs across the
north for Wednesday morning.
The low center passes across southern Canada by Thursday with a
trailing front bringing rain as it pushes south then stalls. A
wave moves along the front with an area of frontogenesis bringing
more rain for Thursday night into Friday, with the highest POPs
and QPF across the southern half of the forecast area.
- More Heavy Rain possible early Next Week
The pattern across the CONUS reverts to the western trough,
southeast ridge for early next week with a southerly flow feeding
moisture into the Great Lakes as low pressure ejects out of the
Plains. More flooding is possible along with conditional chances
for severe convection. Most likely time window appears to be
Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
Skies are clear across the region as high pressure remains
overhead. We`ll see some mid and high clouds develop Wednesday
morning as the next system approaches, however, ceilings will
remain aoa 12k ft.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
A Gale Warning has been issued for north of Holland and a SCA
between St Joseph and Holland from Wednesday morning to Thursday
morning as high pressure moves east and south winds ramp up.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
No significant rain is expected until Wednesday night and Thursday
when one quarter of an inch is forecast across the Muskegon Basin
with lesser amounts to the south across the Grand and Kalamazoo
river basins. This should not have a significant effect on the
rivers, where crests from the heavy rainfall last Saturday will
continue moving downstream across the rivers.
Another wet weather pattern is established early next week and
some flooding is possible,
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
for LMZ844-845.
Gale Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
