452
FXUS63 KGRR 261108
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
708 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler To Start The Week
- Warming Into Midweek With Showers Possible
- Rain Chances Increase End of October into Early November
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
- Cooler To Start The Week
A cold front is sinking through Lower Michigan this morning and is
coming through dry but for a few sprinkles and increased cloud
cover. Temperatures are getting knocked down a bit but are still
going to be slightly above normal especially in southern MI. Highs
today and Tue will range from the mid 50s by US-10 and mid 60s by
I-94.
- Warming Into Midweek With Showers Possible
Good agreement among the ensembles for temperatures to rebound on
Wed to the upper 60s or around 70 as southwest low-level flow
resumes on the backside of an eastern US high. High confidence in
these temperatures persisting into Thu, and likely through the
weekend with perhaps a slight cooling trend. Better low- and mid-
level moisture and weak lift above the warm front Tue night may
produce very light rain showers.
A weak cold front in trail of a northern Ontario/Quebec low will
approach the area and stall on Thursday. Models show a modest
uptick in instability for moist parcels at 850-700 mb, so a chance
of isolated/scattered elevated and fast-moving shower/thunderstorm
cells is in the picture. Severe weather not expected.
- Rain Chances Increase End of October into Early November
Ensembles really start to diverge for Saturday into early next
week with shortwaves in the southern jet stream and eventual
deeper wave development, progression, and potential phasing of
northern and southern stream waves. The main expectation is for
precip chances to increase, perhaps with an occasional soaking
rainfall, though not confident for now which day or days are most
favored. Presently there are 20 to 30 PoPs for Halloween.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 708 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
As a cold front sinks through the area from north to south,
shifting winds north, models have not been consistent with the
handling of potential MVFR or IFR cigs this morning in the
vicinity of a cold front. There is just enough moisture in the
lower atmosphere to reduce visibility at a few locations, and
that may turn into a scattered patches of clouds below 2,000 feet
as the diurnal boundary layer deepens. Otherwise, VFR with
scattered to broken clouds around 8,000 feet which may become
4,000 feet later this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Winds today over Lake Michigan will be north-northeast, keeping
hazardous waves mainly over the open waters, though there could be
2 to 4 footers peeling into the nearshore especially near Big and
Little Sable Points. Gusts this afternoon near the Points may
climb above 20 knots, approaching small craft advisory levels.
East-southeast winds on Tuesday may also gust above 20 knots.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
