002
FXUS63 KGRR 250739
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
339 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High confidence dry forecast through next Tuesday
- Rain possible mid next week
- Near normal temperatures through the 7 day forecast
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
- High confidence dry forecast through next Tuesday
Moisture overviews in BUFKIT remain very dry into early next week.
Outside of some high clouds today, the overviews in the GFS are
void of RH values above 50-60 percent. Confidence in dry weather
is also boosted by the fact that all 80 members of the GFS and
ECMWF ensembles show dry weather through Tuesday. Not much else to
say in this quiet period of weather other than the fact that the
pattern is somewhat blocked by the Middle Atlantic/Northeast
coastal low that is forming. This pattern block keeps the ridge
over the Great Lakes almost anchored. Bottom line...dry weather
for the next 5 days.
- Rain possible mid next week
There has been some discrepancy in the models in the medium range
and that seems to be clearing up a little bit in the past 24
hours. As yesterday`s discussion noted, the GFS had trended
towards the ECMWF, and that remains to be the case today. The GFS
had a deep low moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, but
consensus is building somewhat towards more of a surface
trough/cold front moving through. Chances for rain begin Tuesday
night, but are higher on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The GFS
is still hanging on to some semblance of a surface low albeit
weaker and further south than last night. The surface low hangs
the front up a bit over Southwest Lower Michigan. The ECWMF is
more progressive. Bottom line is that we have rain chances mid
next week but the details are still a bit murky.
- Near normal temperatures through the 7 day forecast
High temperatures through the period look to range from the upper
60s to the lower 70s which is very close to normals. With no
major system moving through there will not be much fluctuation
from day to day. Lows through Monday night will be near normal as
well, generally in the 40s
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
High confidence in VFR weather conditions through the 24 hour TAF
period of 06Z-06Z. High clouds will work through the region today
before clearing out tonight. Clouds moving through will have bases
between 15,000 to 25,000 feet, so no impact on aviation
operations. Winds will be light from the east today at 5-10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
High pressure will remain in control of the area weather through
the weekend and into early next week. The high will ensure that we
continue in a light wind regime with generally less than 10 knots
of wind into next Tuesday. Waves are anticipated to be in the flat
calm to 1 foot range through Tuesday. Given what can occur this
time of year on the Great Lakes this is certainly a quiescent
period.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
