206
FXUS63 KGRR 111023
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
623 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Dry Through Next Week
- Hot Temperatures Monday Through Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
- Mostly Dry Through Next Week
Overall the pattern is rather dry with high pressure building in
across much of the CONUS. We will need to monitor for any
shortwave to ride the ridge as we are on the eastern edge in
northwest flow. A couple of these periods are early Monday and
then toward the end of next week. At this time not planning on any
adjustments to the NBM PoPs as confidence is not high enough to
make any meaningful changes. Most long range ensemble members
keep any measurable precipitation out of the area.
- Hot Temperatures Monday Through Wednesday
With the building ridge and high pressure strongest over the area
Monday into Wednesday we should see highs increase into the 90s
across much of the area. Dew points are expected to be in the 60s
with heat index values in the 90s and potentially approaching 100
on Tuesday. Unlike the last heat wave, dew point values will not
be as high and we`ll recover more at night with lows in the 60s to
around 70. With these factors, confidence in reaching Heat
Advisory criteria (heat index of 100) is low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
JXN may drop to MVFR briefly this morning. Watching an area of
IFR ceilings around 600 feet over PTK as it expands westward. If
it is able to hold together it may impact JXN and LAN this morning
before lifting. Northeast winds are expected through the day
today, but may be more northerly along the lakeshore this
afternoon. FEW to SCT diurnal cumulus around 5000 feet are also
expected this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Northerly winds are expected to pick back up during the later half
of the afternoon into the early evening hours. Gusts may approach
Small Craft Advisory criteria. Waves will be around a foot this
morning but increase to around 2 to 3 feet this afternoon and
evening with the higher winds. Highest waves will be south of
Muskegon on the north sides of piers and breakwalls.
High pressure building into the area for next week will keep winds
and waves below Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement
conditions.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
