017
FXUS63 KGRR 111955
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
255 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer Temperatures continue into next week
- Next Chance for precipitation next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
- Warmer Temperatures continue into next week
Cold northwesterly flow will persist through the latter half of
the work week. Expect gusty winds to continue today before
slackening as the pressure gradient weakens tomorrow. The weak
trough will move eastward Friday.
A ridge will build into the Great Lakes region into and through
the weekend. As that ridge builds over the region, warmer than
normal temperatures will advect into Michigan. This will allow
temps to increase into next week. Anomalous warm air will bring
max temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the weekend
and 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the first half of next
week. Lows will remain below freezing through the weekend but get
above freezing next week.
- Next Chance for precipitation next week
Models continue to have the large upper level low moving through
the southern US from Sunday into early next week. A shallow
clipper will sweep through southern Canada during this timeframe.
However southern Michigan will remain solidly between these two
features and will be bifurcated. If the clipper shifts a little
further south, there is a slight chance for mixed precipitation.
However, a downward trend continues that this occurs. So not
expecting any precipitation at this time.
Zonal flow will then dominate the pattern early next week with
dry warm air continuing into mid next week. The next chance for
precipitation will be a system that moves through the upper
midwest mid next week. Models diverge on timing though ensembles
do show a decent chance for precipitation through that timeframe.
The question for that system is the position of the low. Depending
where it is situated will determine not only how much
precipitation SW michigan gets but what type. So there is some
confidence that we will see some precipitation by mid next week,
however, what type and how much remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
With the exception of JXN, predominantly MVFR conditions are
expected through late evening. JXN will likely see a mix of
VFR/MVFR. Satellite trends suggest raising cigs above 2kft for all
sites this afternoon. Between the tendency for lake driven cloud
cover to persist longer than expected, HREF guidance, and NBM
guidance which handles lake effect stratocu well, have gone
pessimistic and kept all terminals except LAN/JXN MVFR through the
TAF period. They could go VFR late tonight but confidence in that
is low. LAN/JXN being further inland are likely to go VFR after
05z. Gusty winds to 20 knots will diminish late this afternoon
with winds aob 10 knots following into Thursday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
