667
FXUS63 KGRR 102255
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
655 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry tonight and Saturday
- Showers and thunderstorms late weekend through next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
- Dry tonight and Saturday
Latest visible loop shows some breaks in the stratocu over the
lake and parts of the cwa. High pressure is nosing in from the
west and we`ll continue to see breaks develop throughout the
afternoon and mostly clear skies overnight. This will lead to a
mostly sunny Saturday.
- Showers and thunderstorms late weekend through next week
Meanwhile, a cold front stretches from near Toledo southwest to
southern Missouri. This frontal boundary will begin moving north
Sunday in response to the high drifting east and low pressure over
the northern Plains moving east. The strengthening south flow
will advect moisture northward and the warming temperatures will
help increase instability. The result will be increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night through the end
of next week.
H8 temperatures rise form 0c tonight to 16c by Monday; that`s
pretty significant. Once the cwa gets into the warm sector,
instability will rise appreciably. SBCAPE by Monday afternoon is
progd to be around 2k j/kg and LI`s near -6c. A strong 50-60 kt
LLJ remains in place Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Additionally, mid level lapse rates climb to over 7.5c/km by
Monday afternoon and bulk shear values around 45 knots will be in
place as well. All that is to say a lot of juice for storms will
be in place. The catalyst will be short waves riding up the back
side of the ridge from the Missouri Valley into Lower Michigan.
NCAR AI progs already point toward higher chances for strong to
severe storms Monday through Wednesday; Tuesday appears to have
the highest chances at this time.
It will certainly feel like late spring next week with highs in
the 70s Sunday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
MVFR cigs continue to erode from west to east, with LAN and JXN
last to reach VFR by late evening. Skies clear out tonight with
light winds. This does bring some concern for fog development,
particularly for AZO/BTL/JXN who had more trapped moisture today.
The complicating factor is that lower dewpoints will be advecting
in overnight drying the boundary layer. Overall the chance of MVFR
and lower fog overnight is around 30%, too low for TAF inclusion
at this time. The favored window if any did occur would be
08z-13z. Expect light and variable winds overnight, with winds
increasing from the east/southeast Saturday. MKG is likely to go
southwesterly for a time Saturday afternoon as a lake breeze
develops.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Wind and waves are not expected to be hazardous to small craft
until Sunday and Monday as south flow increases ahead of the next
cold front. Small craft advisories are expected then and gale
warnings are possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
As the crest on the Grand moves downstream, we`re able to slowly
cancel flood warnings. We canceled the flood warning for the
Thornapple River above Hastings earlier this morning. River flood
warning remain on the Grand River at Robinson Twp and Comstock
Park, the Maple River at Maple Rapids, and the Portage River near
Vicksburg.
Dry weather is expected through Saturday, but more showers/storms
are possible Saturday night and Sunday. Much of this rain (~ 1 in) is
expected to fall over the Muskegon River basin, but a half inch
could fall over the Grand basin too. Then Monday through Wednesday
additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is possible over the
area, all of which means that rivers may start rising again and go
past flood stage. It`s certainly something we`ll keep an eye on.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...04
HYDROLOGY...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
