375
FXUS63 KGRR 300445
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1145 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very cold tonight-Friday morning
- Moderating temperatures with less impacts next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
- Very cold tonight-Friday morning
We will be issuing a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire forecast
area for late tonight and Friday morning.
The Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect was cancelled early
this morning. The bands of lake effect pushed further offshore than
expected, and have remained there this afternoon and are shearing
out with plenty of vertical wind shear present. We will see what is
left of these snow showers come onshore this afternoon and early
evening as the low level flow becomes onshore briefly as the land
breeze from last night ends.
A few snow showers will linger for the first half of the evening
also as the strong upper wave north of Lake Superior this afternoon
passes through the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. This
feature will shift the low level winds to the NE once again.
The importance of this is that this is expected to push all of the
clouds offshore and south of the area overnight. This along with a
weakening wind is going to allow temps to dive pretty good
considering the entire area has quite a snow pack. Ensemble means
that did well with last Friday`s extreme cold support lows generally
0 to -10F. The wind does not go calm, and those factors combined
support min wind chills of -15 to -25. The I-94 corridor may not see
it until just before daybreak with the clearing, but the coldest
wind chills will be there by the time kids are going to the bus
stops.
The other thing the offshore flow does is it will pretty much end
the lake effect for our area for a bit. The only place that might
see some snow showers linger would be Little and Big Sable Points,
where the band might just clip them. The offshore flow, and land
breeze component with the very cold temps should push it entirely
offshore by Friday morning.
- Moderating temperatures with less impacts next week
We will see ridging build over the area then through Saturday night.
The lake effect axis should remain out over the lake Saturday night
as the low level flow will be weak, and land breezes should focus it
there. We also lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the deep cold air,
so lake effect will diminish in intensity.
It will be Sunday that we see the pattern transition from the Arctic
cold and non-stop lake effect to a not-so-cold airmass with less
frequent snow chances. This slight pattern change is a result of the
flow from the NW having its origins from the Gulf of Alaska, instead
of from the Arctic like the past couple of weeks.
The next chance of snow then will come in the late Sunday night and
Monday time frame. This will be supported by the next short wave
coming in from the NW. The snow could be enhanced by Lake Michigan
some as the flow ahead of the wave will be from the SW. The system
being moisture starved, and having lower inversion heights due to
the lack of deep cold air should keep this relatively tame by early
February Michigan standards.
We will see a break in the action, with the air staying relatively
mild behind the Monday system. Most of the period from Monday night
through Wednesday should be quiet as we see nice ridging at the sfc
and aloft pass through. Inversion heights dropping being on the anti-
cyclonic side of the upper jet should prevent much if not all of any
lake effect that would try to get going. The next chance for some
snow would come next Thursday with the next wave poised to pass
through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
Light snow with areas of IFR conditions across central and
southern Lower Michigan will improve to VFR as drier air brings
clearing from the north between 06Z and 08Z. Expect VFR
conditions with northeast winds AOB 5 knots through Friday
evening.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion