340
FXUS63 KGRR 151734
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1234 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warmer through Wednesday
- Chance of rain Thursday/Saturday, Mild
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
- Dry and warmer through Wednesday
Latest IR loop shows most of the Lower Peninsula covered in a
stratocu deck; 00Z raobs reveal a stout inversion around h85 that
is trapping moisture underneath. Across the UP and southern
Canada, drier air was working south skies were clearing. As the
upper low to the east moves away, high pressure over the MS Valley
will move over the Great Lakes and we`ll see decreasing clouds
this afternoon.
Temperatures will be on the upswing this week due to increasing
heights aloft. H8 temperatures near -4c this morning will rise to
+8 by Thursday. This will result in highs climbing from the mid
40s today to upper 50s by Thursday.
- Chance of rain Thursday/Saturday, Mild
The next chance (around 30 percent) of rain arrives Thursday as a
weak cold front moves through. There`s virtually no cold air
behind this front and the low associated with it is north of Lake
Superior. Thus, that 30 PoP over the northwest CWA Thursday may be
generous.
The larger focus comes over the weekend, when a high amplitude
trough over the West Coast move east. That wave is progd to phase
with a short wave dropping south from Canada and producing a
deeper low over the upper MS Valley. The cold front associated
with that low will then move east late Saturday. That means a very
mild day Saturday...highs in the lower 60s, before showers move
through ahead of the front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
MVFR ceilings to continue over the next few hours and potentially
linger at some TAF sites after 00z Monday. Drier air will work in
and lower ceilings will move off...replaced by VFR conditions for
the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Maczko
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
