154
FXUS63 KGRR 100622
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
222 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe storms most likely through this evening
- Residual small shower/storm chances Monday through Wednesday
- Mainly dry and seasonable Thursday and into next weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Latest guidance indicates that several rounds of showers and
storms are possible overnight through Monday morning. This
includes areas west of the I 69 corridor along and south of the I
94 corridor. There is the potential that these regions could see
upwards of an additional 2 inches of rain through Monday morning.
Due to this concern, I`ve issued a flood watch for this region.
Low lying areas areas that have already received heavy rainfall,
especially south of Portage, MI, have the highest risk for seeing
minor flooding and ponding of water on roadways.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
- Strong to severe storms most likely through this evening
After above average uncertainty over the last couple of days, it
seems that the atmosphere is finally showing its hand more now. A
line of strong to marginally severe storms has organized over
Wisconsin, and is starting to move over the lake just before 1 pm
EDT.
This line of storms is associated with a MCV from earlier storms,
that is riding the instability gradient aloft ahead of a stalled out
sfc front over Northern portions of Illinois and Indiana as of early
this afternoon. The favored area for the strongest storms with this
line will be over the far SW corner of the forecast area toward Van
Buren and Kalamazoo counties. This is where the best instability
resides over the area where 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE sneaks up. Deep
layer effective shear is also sufficient for some organized storms
sitting at around 30 knots this afternoon.
Mid level lapse rates and CAPE thicknesses are not too exciting for
large hail potential. Gusty winds look like the biggest threat with
unidirectional wind profiles and the linear nature of the line.
Areas across the far SW corner of the forecast area do have a little
better chance of an isolated tornado being closer to the warm front
and the better low level wind shear.
What boundaries that are left behind from this afternoon are likely
to dictate the evolution of the storms for tonight. The reason this
is important is that the larger scale model solutions all have a low
level jet ramping up to our SW by mid evening, helping to fire more
convection along the stalled out front/outflow boundary. We are
expecting that most of any severe threat with the next round of
storms will likely stay south of our forecast area.
We do remain concerned however that heavy rainfall will remain
possible. There are signals in the various model solutions and
suites that there could end up being a heavier localized band
somewhere over our far southern counties, or potentially into
Northern Indiana. If the confidence goes up it will be in our area,
we may try to issue a Flood Watch.
- Residual small shower/storm chances Monday through Wednesday
We do expect that most of the widespread convection after anything
tonight will likely stay farther south across Indiana and Ohio. That
is where the effective front and baroclinic boundary ends up. We
do not see the degree of heat or instability south of the
boundary, but enough moisture and weak short waves in the steady
mid level flow will keep shower/storm chances present for the area
for mainly afternoon and evenings Monday through Wednesday. Lake
breezes and any other mesoscale boundaries will be the main focus
for any diurnal development.
- Mainly dry and seasonable Thursday and into next weekend
The models have been showing that there is a good chance we dry out
for at least Thursday and Friday, and maybe even into next weekend.
We will see a upper ridge across Canada to our NW, that will support
sfc ridging to our north. This will bring in a drier air mass from
Canada with seasonable temperatures.
Eventually a SW flow aloft tries to build over the country, which
would push the warmer air mass toward the area, and maybe
convection along the periphery around it. There is too much
uncertainty at this time to try and get too detailed with that at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026
The impactful portion of the forecast will be in the first few
hours of the forecast with multiple rounds of storms expected. One
round developed just SW of KGRR and moved through, and is now
approaching KLAN with heavy rain and IFR. Additional storms over
Lake Michigan will be moving east over the terminals through
10-12z. More IFR is expected with these also.
Once the storms move out of all of the terminals by 12-13z, we
will see some residual low clouds eventually lift and break up
through 16-19z, bringing VFR to all sites. The remainder of the
period then will just feature high clouds and winds from the SW
going light late in the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
The best chance for marine headlines is actually early in the
forecast period from now through tonight. This is the case as we
have a low level jet aloft moving overhead. This wind is not
expected to be realized at the surface with it being warm air
advection over the relatively cooler waters of Lake Michigan. We
have some 3 ft waves being mentioned in the northern zones, which
should suffice.
We expect winds then to stay below 20 knots through most of, if not
all of this coming week. There looks to be some wind cores around 20
knots at night, associated with a weak low level jet. These winds
should not make it to the sfc either.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ071>073.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ceru
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
