087
FXUS63 KGRR 131707
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1207 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet Weather into Next Week then Potential Storminess
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
- Quiet Weather into Next Week then Potential Storminess
The quiet weather pattern continues through the weekend as a
southern stream low tracks south of Lower Michigan. The northern
stream remains separate with clipper lows passing north of the
Great Lakes today and again Monday. Temperatures moderate as
upper heights rise over the weekend.
Then we have to watch for a "baroclinic battle zone" setting up
across the Great Lakes region for next week. The next chance for
precipitation is late Tuesday into Wednesday as warm advection
increases with enough moisture to bring a chance of rain or mixed
precip with the highest chances across the northern forecast area.
We will have to watch the placement of a cold anticyclone across
the Hudson Bay region during this time with the potential for
freezing rain or frozen precip by Wednesday across the central
and northern forecast areas, where there have been freezing rain
episodes during previous periods of milder temperatures this
winter.
A second wave of low pressure late in the week could also bring
the rain/mixed precipitation which should change to snow by late
Thursday or Friday as cold air filters in on the back side of the
low.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
No aviation concerns over the next 12 hours as dry air and high
pressure lead to SKC across West Michigan, with southwest winds to
around 10 knots. Light and variable winds with clear skies will
allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions and the
potential for patchy fog. Have put in MIFG at GRR/MKG where the
signal for fog is best and will evaluate whether restrictions are
needed with the 00z package given the expected sporadic coverage
of fog. We will also see VFR clouds sub 5kft develop across
Central Lower Michigan and approach LAN. Any fog that does develop
dissipates by mid morning Saturday. Winds increase to around 5
knots from the southeast Saturday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
