357
FXUS63 KGRR 110734
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow north this morning with no accumulations expected
- Precipitation chances this weekend still trending downward
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
- Light snow north this morning with no accumulations expected
APX radar shows light returns associated with LES extending as far
south as northern Osceola/Clare counties with light snow being
reported at CAD and HTL. Will keep slight chances for snow into late
this morning. Accumulations are highly unlikely and travel impacts
are not expected.
- Precipitation chances this weekend still trending downward
We will see a slow upward trend in temperatures into the weekend
with predominantly dry conditions. Precipitation chances this
weekend continue to look unfavorable, with maybe a 20 percent chance
of a rain/snow mix south of I-96 during the day Sunday when highs
are expected to reach 40 degrees. Such mild temperatures naturally
reduce concerns for slippery travel. Any precipitation that
occurs will almost certainly bring light accumulations, probably
on the order of one or two hundredths of an inch. So, we are
talking about a very low stakes forecast here impact-wise.
The reason for any chances of precipitation at all likely has to do
with the Canadian ensemble (GEPS), which has been favoring a more
northern track of the surface low. This has been at odds with the
ECMWF Ensemble (ECE) and the GEFS Ensemble. The AI GEFS does show
a slight chance of precipitation along the I-94 corridor, which
sort of splits the difference between the GEPS and the ECE/GEFS.
It`s worth noting that it`s surprisingly common to see the
control/deterministic member of an ensemble being a significant
outlier relative to the other members. This is particularly
common with the ECE, but it also happens a lot with the GEFS and
even sometimes with the GEPS. This should serve as a reminder to
not put too much stock into what can sometimes be a scary-looking
deterministic medium range model solution that may entirely
ignore the far more plausible scenarios provided by the ensemble.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026
Ceilings will hover around MVFR overnight with some potential
still of dipping just below 2k ft especially after 12z. NW winds
continue relatively unchanged with sustained winds around 10-12
kts and some gusts around 20kts, higher at MKG.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...Hoving
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
