005
FXUS63 KGRR 061203
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
703 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog This Morning
- Strong To Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening, Then
Saturday Morning
- Above Normal Temperatures into Next Week
- Mid-Week System Brings Storms and Snow
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
- Fog This Morning
Low level moisture remains trapped at the surface with light winds
and the inversion aloft. Visibilities of a mile or less are likely
to continue into Friday morning. Around sunrise visibilities could
drop to a quarter mile or less. If the visibility drops that low a
Dense Fog Advisory would be needed.
- Strong To Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening, Then
Saturday Morning
Round 1: This Afternoon and Evening
Convection currently over Iowa will continue to push northeast
into southwest Michigan this afternoon. This is tied to upper
level divergence with the jet, the low level jet, and MUCAPE
values around 500-1000 J/kg. These ingredients will lift northeast
into our area this afternoon providing fuel to sustain ongoing
thunderstorms along with additional thunderstorms that develop
through the afternoon and evening hours. The severe potential is
greatly tied to how quickly our low level moisture and inversion
erodes. At this time there is consensus that we should see
conditions improve for thunderstorm development this afternoon,
especially toward the late afternoon and early evening looking at
the HREF and individual CAMS. If storms can become more surface
based all hazards are in play with the 50 knots of shear and and
ample storm relative helicity seen in the hodograph profiles, the
highest risk will be in southwest Michigan along the I-94
corridor potentially up to I-96 where CAMS show storms becoming
more surfaced based. Looking at the ongoing thunderstorms in Iowa
compared to model guidance storms could arrive a little earlier
around 11am and push northeast through the afternoon with
additional development into the evening hours. Make sure you have
your severe weather safety plan in place and a way to receive
weather notifications if warnings are issued.
Round 2: Saturday Morning
A lull between the rounds is expected late tonight with a
weakening of the low level jet over the area. The next push of low
level convergence moves in early Saturday morning, expect storms
to move into the area between 4 to 7am. The low level jet with
this second round looks a little stronger at 60 knots along with
higher MUCAPE values as seen in the HREF. As mentioned in the
previous discussion there are differences in instability,
especially surfaced based Saturday morning. Either way with the
amount of shear and strong low level winds in place severe hail
and winds will be a concern. Hail more so with any discrete
thunderstorms and winds with any cluster/line. If the NAM
soundings are realized, there would be a continued concerned for
tornadoes, especially in any bowing segments. With this early
round, make sure you have a way to get warnings that can wake you
up if issued.
With the multiple rounds of thunderstorms heavy rain could bring
flooding concerns to portions of western Michigan. The 24 hour QPF
localized probability-matched mean highlights areas north of a
South Haven to Lansing line to see around an inch or more or rain,
with isolated spots of 2 to 3 inches possible through 7am Saturday.
This will highly depend on where thunderstorms track over the
same area the longest.
- Above Normal Temperatures into Next Week
Highs this time of year are typically in the upper 30s to low 40s.
With the warm air advection in place expect highs to be 20 to 30
degrees warmer with highs in the upper 50s to 60s through
Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday in the
upper 40s to 50s before we see the 60s return Monday. With these
warmer temperatures there is the potential to break some records.
Check the Climate section below for the current records through
Saturday.
- Mid-Week System Brings Storms and Snow
Ensembles are in good agreement on a mid-level trough arriving mid-
next week with a surface low developing out ahead of it. Depending
on where the low-level baroclinic zone and associated warm sector
sets up, the strong dynamics means we will have to watch for the
potential of organized convection Tuesday. Behind the system, much
colder air filters in as 850mb temps fall below zero. This will lead
to rain mixing with or changing over to snow as the system departs
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 703 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
LIFR conditions continue this morning with some patchy drizzle. An
area of thunderstorms will move in 16-21Z from the west with heavy
rain likely. Depending on how much mixing out we see of the low
level clouds will impact the severe potential heading into this
evening. If the low ceilings remain it will lower the risk, if
they lift we`ll have a better potential with storms capable of
hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. The best risk will
be toward far southwest Michigan. With wind speeds aloft
increasing, afternoon gusts around 20 knots are expected then low
level wind shear develops this evening continuing into Saturday
morning increasing from 40 to 55 knots. We`ll see a lull in rain
and thunderstorms between 4-9Z before the next round moves in
between 9-12Z Saturday morning. This round also has the potential
to be strong to severe with all hazards possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
Record High Temperatures...
Friday March 6th...
Grand Rapids... 68 (1983)
Lansing... 65 (2009)
Kalamazoo... 72 (1983)
Battle Creek... 68 (1973)
Holland... 72 (1983)
Muskegon... 67 (1983)
Saturday March 7th...
Grand Rapids... 72 (2000)
Lansing... 74 (2000)
Kalamazoo... 76 (2000)
Battle Creek... 76 (2000)
Holland... 71 (2000)
Muskegon... 64 (2000)
Record Warm Lows...
Saturday March 7th...
Grand Rapids... 53 (2012)
Lansing... 50 (2012)
Kalamazoo... 50 (1983)
Battle Creek... 51 (1973)
Holland... 56 (2012)
Muskegon... 50 (2012)
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
CLIMATE...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
