187
FXUS63 KGRR 241643
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1243 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer through mid week
- Chance of strong to severe storms late Thursday, then colder
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
- Warmer through mid week
A large dome of high pressure currently over Michigan will drift
east tonight and winds will become southerly. Those south winds
will advect warmer air and moisture northward beginning Wednesday.
H8 temperatures are progd to climb from -2c today to +4c by
tomorrow afternoon and +12c Thursday afternoon. At the surface,
that will translate to highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 50s
(~10 degrees above normal) and upper 50s (near US-10) to lower 70s
(near I-94). Although it won`t feel humid, dewpoints will climb
into the lower to mid 50s across the southern cwa.
- Chance of strong to severe storms late Thursday, then colder
The increase in moisture, coupled with the eastward movement of a
cold front result in thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
A lee-side low will be the driving force for the frontal boundary
moving into the cwa after 18z. Models show quite a bit of shear
and MUCAPE around 1k j/kg near I-94. RRFS reflectivity simulates
strong storms south of the cwa from late Thursday afternoon into
the evening. However, this is a bit farther south as compared to
yesterday`s model runs. While we could see some storms over the
southern cwa, the most likely location for severe storms will be
south of the cwa. But, we`ll continue to monitor for future
development.
Once the cold front moves through, H8 temps fall to -10c Friday.
Look for lows in the mid 20s Thursday night and Friday night and
highs from the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday. This time of year when
we get strong cold fronts, the cold air doesn`t last long and this
will be no different. Highs will rebound to the mid 50s Sunday and
around 60 Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Dry ambient airmass and high pressure brings very high confidence
in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mid to high clouds,
mostly aoa 10kft, are expected with scattered clouds as low as
7kft possible at times through the period. Southerly to
southwesterly winds will become light and variable tonight,
increasing from the south Wednesday. Gusts to 20 knots are likely
through the afternoon before diminishing this evening.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LMZ847>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
