860
FXUS63 KGRR 222341
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
741 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers possible through far southern Michigan tomorrow
- Fair, dry with warming weather into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
- Showers possible through far southern Michigan tomorrow
Michigan currently is at an impasse between two systems. A low,
cycling along the Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin borders is
bringing southerly moisture northward into lower michigan. A large
upper level high remains entrenched over Ontario and Quebec.
Michigan lies in between these systems. The pressure gradient
along their boundary is creating gusty surface winds out of the
east. Expect these winds to continue through the evening,
dampening briefly overnight, before strengthening again tomorrow.
The upper level high pressure will shift eastward as a ridge of
high pressure builds front the south. This will drive the
previously mentioned low to the south east. As it moves east there
is a slight chance that some of the precip bands on the
periphery will infiltrate Michigan with a slight chance of
bringing light rain to the southern tier or two of Michigan
tomorrow afternoon. Latest models continue to shift the low
southward, so these precip chances continue to dwindle.
- Fair, dry with warming weather into next week
The models are in fair agreement through the mid to long range. The
ridge building from the south should become a full fledged rex
block high late this week, into the weekend. The low will continue
to advect eastward and given the latest trends is tracking to
close off as it begins its trek up the northeastern seaboard. The
high pressure will simultaneous keep this low from retrograding,
and stop an upper level wave from intruding into the Great Lakes
region.
The below normal temperatures will slowly warm through the
weekend, with above normal temperatures, peaking into the low 70s,
are trending into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Ceilings between 3,000 and 4,000 feet have developed along and
southeast of an AZO-LAN line. Scattered to broken clouds at that
layer may also reach GRR late tonight or Wed morning. Ceilings
should fall to at or below 3,000 feet late tonight or early Wed
morning. Though not all models show this, some dip ceilings below
2,000 feet for part of Wed morning around AZO-BTL-JXN. Also expect
about 20 knots of LLWS between 1,000 feet and ground between 02
and 12 Z, with winds at 1,000 feet about 08030KT.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Strong offshore winds will continue the the evening hours. waves
remain calm and should continue through Thursday, before winds
settle down a bit. The offshore component should keep the winds
just below criteria. High pressure will build over the region late
this week and through the weekend which will create lighter winds
by Friday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Ceru
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
