191
FXUS63 KGRR 112356
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
656 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain Tuesday changing to snow Wednesday
- Cold and unsettled Thursday-Sunday; snowy
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
- Rain Tuesday changing to snow Wednesday
Latest visible imagery shows clearing occuring over the eastern
cwa and moving westward. RH progs indicate some continued clearing
this evening before mid and high clouds overspread the region
after midnight. We`ll be dry through Monday night, then rain is
expected to develop ahead of the next cold front in conjunction
with a strong short wave. This short wave will be the lead wave in
a wave train that will carve out a broad upper trough over the
Great Lakes through next weekend.
Initially, Tuesday, precipitation will fall as rain as we`ll be
near the warm front of the low that will track across the UP.
The trailing cold front won`t move through until Wednesday
morning. At that point, we`ll see rain change to snow from north
to south across the cwa. H8 temperatures fall to -16 by Wednesday
afternoon. Lake effect snow will develop Wednesday afternoon.
However, boundary layer winds are progd to be NNEly suggesting
that we won`t see much in the way of LES. We`ll need to keep any
eye on the northeast cwa where some LES from Lake Huron may be
possible.
- Cold and unsettled Thursday-Sunday; snowy
Another strong short wave in the wave train will move across
northern Indiana Thursday and Friday with several more waves
following through the weekend. Hard to pin down timing on these
waves, but the mere presence of the them suggest the potential of
some synoptic and lake effect snow.
Highs have trended colder for Thursday; lower 20s now expected
and it`s possible we won`t get out of the teens. Lower to mid 20s
highs expected Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
MVFR cigs will continue through the first half of the TAF
period. Expect cigs to improve after 06Z. Winds have slackened as
expected. Another jet will approach from the south overnight and
will once again bring a round of gusty winds overnight which will
continue through the daytime tomorrow. Winds will slacken in the
afternoon beginning around 20Z. Overall VFR conditions are
expected through tomorrow.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Ceru
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
