735 FXUS63 KGRR 091158 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 658 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds expected today, especially this morning - Snow still expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning - Clipper system next Tuesday into Wednesday to bring rain/snow && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 - Strong winds expected today, especially this morning We are concerned with a strong surge of wind that is expected to sweep across the area this morning from west to east between 6am and 10am or so. The HRRR has been consistent for many runs now showing the potential for 45 to 55 mph winds beginning along the Lake Michigan shoreline (6-7am) and surging to the east towards Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Lansing and Jackson this morning. The strongest winds have been forecast to be from Muskegon to Mt. Pleasant and points to the south, especially from I-96 to the south. The entire area stands a chance at 45+ mph winds though and we therefore have issued a Wind Advisory through 4pm. BUFKIT overviews via the 3km NAM show 60 mph in the mixed layer, but not confident we will go that high. The winds are associated with the passage of a strong cold front that will be the catalyst for mixing down the strong winds. The isallobaric component of the wind is quite strong today associated with a sub 995mb low moving through the Great Lakes. 6 hour pressure rises per the HRRR are forecast to exceed 15mb today which is very strong. - Snow still expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning Focus then shifts to the snow potential from Saturday into Sunday associated with two upper waves that phase over the Great Lakes this weekend. A southern upper wave is currently moving through New Mexico with another wave diving into the Northern Plains. These two waves take aim on the Great Lakes and phase into an upper trough overhead. Surface low pressure forms tomorrow, likely situated over Lake Huron by evening. Colder air filters into the area from the west and precipitation should mainly be snow tomorrow and Sunday. The event has both a synoptic scale boost to it via the upper trough, but also a lake effect component as west winds shift to the northwest with delta t`s increasing into the middle teens C by Sunday morning. We are likely looking at 1-3 inches of snow on Saturday mainly near and north of I-96 and then another 1-3 potentially Saturday night near and west of Highway 131. 2-6 inches is not too significant for Michigan in January, but we may need a Winter Wx Advisory with time over portions of Central and Western Lower Michigan for Saturday into Saturday night. - Clipper system next Tuesday into Wednesday to bring rain/snow A clipper system is forecast to dive southeast through the Great Lakes region next Tuesday and Wednesday. The track of the low is well off to the north of Southwest Lower Michigan staying mainly in Ontario. The main feature will be a lake effect snow boost Tuesday night into Wednesday as 850mb temps fall towards -15C. Some accumulations of snow are expected towards Lake Michigan. We will be trending colder than normal for this time of year for mid next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 657 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 A cold front is pushing through Western Lower Michigan at this time (12z) with strong wind gusts. Within the last hour Holland (BIV) has gusted to 48 knots. Winds gusts of 35 to 45 knots will be common through 15z-16z. Winds will gradually trail off through the course of the afternoon as the gradient slackens. Low level wind shear is a concern through 15z-16z as well as winds at 2000ft will be 210/50kts. In terms of flight categories much of the TAF sites are VFR as of 1130z, but that will change as lower clouds (MVFR) and even IFR clouds move in this morning from the west behind the front. Rain showers will spread in behind the front as well for a time, especially between 14z and 18z. VFR conditions can be expected this evening into the overnight. We may see a resurgence of MVFR ceilings once again late tonight towards 12z. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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