175
FXUS63 KGRR 011033
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
633 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain ending Friday
- Cooler with frost/freeze possible into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
- Rain ending Friday
National radar shows a large band of rainfall from Michigan
southwest to the southern Plains, moving northeast. The rain is
ahead of a cold front that will move across the cwa Friday. Deep
south flow is in place east of the front and is drawing moisture
northward from the Gulf as well as from the eastern Pacific, where
the remnants of the tropical system have been entrained into the
upper flow. This added moisture has resulted in flooding in the
Mid MS Valley. However, flooding isn`t expected within the cwa.
Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will continue into the
overnight. Additional rainfall accumulations of a half to around
an inch are possible. Once low pressure over Kansas moves
northeast along the frontal boundary into Michigan, the cold front
will move southeast across Lower MI beginning tonight and
continuing into Friday. As high pressure builds in behind it,
we`ll see decreasing cloudiness throughout the day. Dry weather
will then continue through the weekend and much of next week.
- Cooler with frost/freeze possible into next week
Clear skies and light winds will set up radiational cooling
conditions. Temperatures in the upper 20s are possible along US-10
with lower to mid 30s as far south as M-20. Thus, frost/freeze
headlines are likely tomorrow night. After another cold frontal
passage Sunday, additional frost/freeze headlines are possible
Sunday night and Monday night. Monday night will be the coldest of
the season so far. Lows Monday night will be in the mid to upper
20s north of M-20 and in the lower to mid 30s south through the
rest of the cwa. Highs during this period will be in the lower to
mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Rain continues across the region as a cold front slowly approaches
from the west. Most terminals are VFR except for MKG which has a
400ft broken deck. As the cold front moves south across the Lower
Peninsula later today, IFR ceilings will move south across the
rest of the terminals. Precipitation will come to an end late
tonight and ceilings will rise to VFR after 06z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
The marine headlines have been canceled due to wind and waves
falling below advisory/statement criteria. We`ll have a 24 hour
period of low wind/waves before north winds develop behind a cold
front early Friday morning. At that time, we`ll likely need
another small craft advisory as north winds will push waves to 4
to 6 feet.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
