170
FXUS63 KGRR 281859
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
259 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light Rain Tomorrow
- Scattered Showers Possible Saturday
- Pattern shift with rain chances next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
- Light Rain Tomorrow
Models and ensembles are in great concurrence on the passage of
an upper level trough with a corresponding mid level wave and cold
front. The initial trough will begin moving across the Lake late
tonight, early tomorrow. Showers are possible beginning towards
sunrise in the northwest. NAEFS ensembles has best PWATS in our
region in the Ludington region though the best moisture along the
front overall remains through northern lower.
As the front sweeps across the state throughout the day it will
reinvigorate as it reaches southern lower, with showers possible
along and south of the I 94 corridor in the afternoon and early
evening.
Temps tomorrow will remain fairly warm with highs in the upper 60s
to low 70s. After Max temps of 15 to 20 degrees above normal today
and tomorrow, high`s on Friday will seem pedestrian. However, highs
on Friday, in the low 69s, will still be around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Lows Thursday night into Friday will be closer to
normal, with lows in the 30s.
- Scattered Showers Possible Saturday
Eyes continue to be on the October 31st forecast. The analysis
continues to trend drier, though there is a persistent wave moving
from the southwest through the daytime Saturday. Wave of mid level
moisture will trek through lower Michigan moving from the southwest
to the northeast. The main question remains how much rain will
occur. Trends in ensembles and mid range models have best chance
of rain through the southwest with scattered showers moving across
the state through the afternoon. QPF overall is fairly sparse so
light rain is expected as this point.
- Pattern shift with rain chances next week
Sunday continues to show better moisture streaming into the Ohio
Valley and through southern lower Michigan late Sunday. This
could bring some showers chances along and south of I 96.
There is an increasing disparity in the analysis onward. However,
the overall trend is for temps to warm back up above normal, 10 to
15 degrees, by the middle of next week.
Long range models are showing a system that should make its way
through the inter mountain west and through the Great Plains next
week. Moisture boundaries moving off of this system could bring
some chances for showers, especially mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Clear skies this afternoon will give way to mostly cloudy skies
overnight along with scattered showers for MKG/GRR associated
with a cold front. Other terminals may see showers after 11z but
probabilities are to low for TAF inclusion at this time.
Probabilistic guidance also favors a brief period of MVFR cigs
behind the cold front. LLWS is expected late tonight into early
Thursday morning as a low- level jet crosses the terminals
overnight. Look for southerly winds today to become west-
southwesterly tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026...
Winds have shifted to the southwest and have begun to increase to
not quite criteria. Expect winds waves to increase overnight with
Small Craft Advisory conditions from late tonight into Thursday
with gusts around 25 knots and wave heights 3 to 6 feet. Highest
waves are expected to be north of South Haven.
A cold front will move through Thursday, shifting winds to the
west throughout the day and then to the northwest by tomorrow
evening. This will slacken winds and waves should drop below 4
feet late tomorrow.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Thursday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Ceru
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
