802
FXUS63 KGRR 061117
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
717 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday
- Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into
Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026
- Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday
Dew points in portions of the area have dropped into the lower
50s this morning, the driest air since June 23. Dew points may
rebound slightly with mixing as 850 mb air is still fairly moist,
though the next few days won`t be as oppressive as last week. High
temperatures will still be near seasonal norms today, climbing
back up close to 90 again for midweek. However, the heat index
should stay in check.
- Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into
Thursday
Quasi-zonal upper level flow midweek will tend to become a little
troughier over the Great Lakes on Thursday. CAPE is favored to
increase to about 1000 J/kg on Thursday along with deep layer
shear around 20-30 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop in the vicinity of a weak cold front under the right
entrance region of a 250 jet. The chance of severe storms is not
zero but it is fairly low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 717 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026
A few light rain showers near JXN will weaken later this morning.
Scattered stratocumulus cloud development around 3,000 feet is
possible this morning around AZO, BTL, and JXN, though confidence
is fairly low. All cloud bases should rise above 3,000 feet by
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026
Chance of small craft advisory and beach hazard conditions later
this afternoon along much of West Michigan shore. This is a tough
call, though feel confident in at least moderate swim risk
especially for beaches to the north of piers. High resolution
models increase the nearshore wind field to generally 15-18 knots
from the north-northwest this afternoon, which is usually enough
for marginally hazardous conditions late in the day, with
longshore to structural currents developing and waves building 2
to 4, perhaps 3 to 5 feet.
This is an advancing high pressure system setup, which along with
the daytime lake breeze, contributes to increase winds along the
Michigan shoreline often more than expected. While the center of
the large-scale high is NE of Michigan instead of NW, there is a
ridge axis expected to extend out from it into Wisconsin. Given
the expected winds in the best-performing models, there isn`t
much room for error to keep wave conditions out of the high swim
risk range.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through
this evening for MIZ043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
evening for LMZ844>848.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
