189
FXUS63 KGRR 120753
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
353 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Friday: Rain/Snow and Windy
- Sunday-Monday: Significant Late-Winter Storm Possible
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
- Friday: Rain/Snow and Windy
High winds and some winter impacts are possible Friday as an Alberta
Clipper system with a deep surface low in the mid-980s mb tracks
through northern Michigan. This MSLP normalized anomaly is about
minus 3.5 sigma based on the CFSR 1981-2010 climatology. A strong
wind field in the lower atmosphere will be present both on the warm-
advection side early Friday morning and on the cold-advection side
during the day, with 40 to 50 knots of wind a few hundred to 1,000
feet above ground. HREF mean wind gusts are in the 50-60 mph range,
similar to the ECMWF. A limiting factor to consider which could
temper the peak gusts include clouds and precipitation occurring
much of the time, which if cold air advection is modest, would
reduce the lapse rates right off the surface and also reduce the
mixing potential.
Temperatures will be marginally favorable for snow Friday morning,
but snow is favored over rain particularly north of I-96 where the
heaviest precip will be occurring prior to daybreak. HREF
probability for greater than 3 inches of snow is greater than 50
percent in the higher terrain of interior Central Michigan,
including around Baldwin, Big Rapids, and Clare. Amounts over 5
inches would be most favored in northern Osceola county. Near and
south of I-96, impacts from snow should be more limited with light
accumulations possible.
- Sunday-Monday: Significant Late-Winter Storm Possible
Global models and most of their ensemble members for the last
several runs have been producing a major late-winter storm in
portions of Northern Michigan between Saturday night and Monday
night, and our portion of Central Michigan and the Lake Michigan
shore could also be on the receiving end of some of significant
winter impacts. There remain a number of differences in the details
to not want to be definitive for now. However, the synoptic setup
involving a sharpening Midwest upper-level trough going negative
tilt, rapidly developing cyclone tracking through Lower Michigan,
sharp temperature gradient (baroclinicity), and strong wind field
supports concern for a disruptive event. The weather in our portion
of Lower Michigan will be especially sensitive to the exact track
and depth of the surface low pressure center as it passes through,
approximately from southern Michigan toward Lake Huron.
Some accumulating snow is possible in our area Saturday night in the
isentropic ascent of warm air out ahead of this system, followed by
a day Sunday that could feature temperatures in the 30s in Ludington
and 60s in Jackson (low pressure track dependent). Thunderstorms are
possible in southern Michigan late Sunday, while heavy wintry
precipitation occurs northwest of the low. There could be a narrow
band of heavy freezing rain Sunday night in a portion of Central
Michigan, with heavy snow to the north. Very cold air and strong
winds on Monday may support lake-enhanced snow and blowing snow.
This is a rough idea of what is possible if some of the more robust
model solutions verify. The probabilistic Winter Storm Severity
Index from WPC currently has about a 30-50 percent chance of major
winter storm impacts north of Muskegon-Mount Pleasant from Sunday
night into Monday, and greater than a 60 percent chance of moderate
impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Improvement to VFR has occurred with skies clearing out. May be
some scattered daytime cloud development but likely above 3,000
feet. West winds will also gust up to about 20-25 knots during
the middle of the day.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
MIZ037-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
