296
FXUS63 KGRR 252337
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
637 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- System snow transitions into lake effect tonight
- Cold weather continues much of this upcoming week
- Another snow event for Monday night into Tuesday morning
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
- System snow transitions into lake effect tonight
The relentless winter weather continues as system snow transitions
into a lake effect event tonight. The big system to our south
continues to push occasional bursts of moderate snow into Southern
Lower Michigan this afternoon. The back edge to the precipitation
is slowly working across Illinois at this time, but the snow
continues in Michigan and it likely does not end until after 7pm.
We therefore continued the Winter Weather Advisory as is due to
ongoing snow and the fact there have been numerous accidents and
slide offs in the advisory area. Also, we could see one more burst
of snow this evening as the jet core that has rounded the base of
the trough works across the Ohio Valley placing us in the left
exit region of the jet streak.
The system snow ends this evening and a northerly flow lake effect
band becomes the focus. The band is already in place working NNE-
SSW down the length of the lake. As winds back to the NW and W
tonight the dominant band works into the lakeshore counties. The
band should make landfall between 10pm up towards the points and
4am in portions of the area south of Grand Haven. We have opted to
extend the Winter Weather Advisory in Van Buren for this reason
through the day on Monday. We also added Allegan and Ottawa into
an advisory for the same reason. North up the lakeshore from
Muskegon to the north the band looks more transient and is
dissipating as we head into the Monday morning commute. As of now
the areas that stand to see the highest impacts are from the
Holland area south down the shore. Later shifts may re-evalute the
northern lakeshore and make tweaks appropriately. Snowfall in the
western portions of Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren Counties is
likely to reach the 3-6, 4-7 range. Highest totals will likely be
near South Haven. The Monday morning commute along I-96 west of
Hudsonville south down the lakeshore will very much be affected.
- Cold weather continues much of this upcoming week
The cold weather looks to continue much of if not all of the
upcoming work week. 850mb temperatures hold between -17C and -23C
all week. These are values that result in cold surface air temps
and road problems due to salt not being effective. We are looking
at highs in the teens most days with lows in the single digits
which is well below normal. We will likely be 10 to 20 degrees
below normal most days for highs.
We have a particularly cold period Monday night into Tuesday
morning as surface air temperatures drop towards zero F south and
east of Grand Rapids. Winds ramp up at the same time in advance of
a clipper system and we set the stage for wind chills to drop
into the -15F to -20F range. A Cold Weather Advisory was issued
for a large portions of our area near and south of I96. The
Muskegon, Holland and Grand Rapids areas are not in that headline
though due to slightly warmer air with winds off the lake. It`s
still going to feel cold that morning though with strong winds for
a January morning.
- Another snow event for Monday night into Tuesday morning
The aforementioned clipper will be sliding southeast through the
Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will be
our next snow event as synoptic scale snow with the clipper aids
in lake enhancement for areas downwind of Lake Michigan.
Additional winter weather headlines will be needed as Western
Lower Michigan, especially near and west of Highway 131 is
impacted by snow and blowing snow. The cold temperatures will lead
to another powdery snow event that will limit visibilities.
Visibilities will certainly be changeable and occasionally dipping
towards whiteout categories given the combination of wind and
dry/powder snow character. The beat goes on...so be prepared to
slow down and potentially adjust travel plans.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
Light snow with IFR visbys will pull east of the terminals over
the next hour ot so. Scattered development behind it has a low
chance of bringing brief periods of MFVR conditions to
AZO/BTL/LAN/JXN (though LAN/JXN will already be MVFR prevailing
for cigs) over the next few hours. After 06z tonight a lake
effect band over the lake will reach the shoreline, with the worst
at MKG after 10z. This band will weaken and shift inland through
the day impacting AZO/BTL and possibly GRR. Behind this band will
be MVFR cigs that will impact terminals from Monday morning
through the end of the TAF period. Gusts to 20 knots are possible
Monday afternoon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ056-
064.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
MIZ058-059-064>067-071>074.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
MIZ065>067-072>074.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ071.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
