860 FXUS63 KGRR 222341 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 741 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers possible through far southern Michigan tomorrow - Fair, dry with warming weather into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 - Showers possible through far southern Michigan tomorrow Michigan currently is at an impasse between two systems. A low, cycling along the Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin borders is bringing southerly moisture northward into lower michigan. A large upper level high remains entrenched over Ontario and Quebec. Michigan lies in between these systems. The pressure gradient along their boundary is creating gusty surface winds out of the east. Expect these winds to continue through the evening, dampening briefly overnight, before strengthening again tomorrow. The upper level high pressure will shift eastward as a ridge of high pressure builds front the south. This will drive the previously mentioned low to the south east. As it moves east there is a slight chance that some of the precip bands on the periphery will infiltrate Michigan with a slight chance of bringing light rain to the southern tier or two of Michigan tomorrow afternoon. Latest models continue to shift the low southward, so these precip chances continue to dwindle. - Fair, dry with warming weather into next week The models are in fair agreement through the mid to long range. The ridge building from the south should become a full fledged rex block high late this week, into the weekend. The low will continue to advect eastward and given the latest trends is tracking to close off as it begins its trek up the northeastern seaboard. The high pressure will simultaneous keep this low from retrograding, and stop an upper level wave from intruding into the Great Lakes region. The below normal temperatures will slowly warm through the weekend, with above normal temperatures, peaking into the low 70s, are trending into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Ceilings between 3,000 and 4,000 feet have developed along and southeast of an AZO-LAN line. Scattered to broken clouds at that layer may also reach GRR late tonight or Wed morning. Ceilings should fall to at or below 3,000 feet late tonight or early Wed morning. Though not all models show this, some dip ceilings below 2,000 feet for part of Wed morning around AZO-BTL-JXN. Also expect about 20 knots of LLWS between 1,000 feet and ground between 02 and 12 Z, with winds at 1,000 feet about 08030KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Strong offshore winds will continue the the evening hours. waves remain calm and should continue through Thursday, before winds settle down a bit. The offshore component should keep the winds just below criteria. High pressure will build over the region late this week and through the weekend which will create lighter winds by Friday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...CAS MARINE...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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