123
FXUS63 KGRR 230437
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1137 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect to move offshore and wind down overnight
- Clipper system to bring light snow accumulations Late Tuesday
- High uncertainty for a potentially more impactful system Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
- Lake effect to move offshore and wind down overnight
We will be holding on to the Winter Weather Advisory as is with the
forecast package this afternoon. There is a good chance that is will
be able to be cancelled a bit early.
Light snow has continued today across all of the area, with more
concentrated and intense snow showers for the northern and southern
sections of the lakeshore. The cyclonic flow and colder air aloft is
centered over the entire Great Lakes region. There are many small
embedded vorts rotating about over the area contributing to the
light snow.
Most of the energy with this low complex will shift to the south and
east flanks of the system, driving the major Nor`easter taking
shape. For our area, we will see the snow shower activity taper off
for most of the inland areas through this evening, and even the
lakeshore overnight. This is the result of another sfc reflection of
the upper waves dropping through, and turning the mean low level
flow to become from the NNE.
Additional accumulations inland will be limited by the light
intensity of the snow, and temps around 30F with the increasing
strength of the late February sunshine. The lakeshore is likely to
see another 1 to 3 inches through overnight as instability remains
sufficient with deep moisture through this evening, before deep
moisture is lost, inversion heights drop to 3-4k ft, as the flow
goes offshore. Some clearing is possible to even likely, especially
inland.
- Clipper system to bring light snow accumulations Late Tuesday
We will see a break in any appreciable snow accumulation from
overnight tonight through the first half of Tuesday as high pressure
passes across the area.
Light snow will develop Tuesday afternoon and continue through
Tuesday night in association with a fairly strong short wave and
associated sfc low moving through. There has been fairly good
consistency with this feature, taking the sfc low across mainly
Northern Lower Michigan.
This short wave and sfc low track supports the higher snow amounts
across Central and Northern Lower where the better gradient of
moisture advection/convergence takes place. Even though the low
level flow is from the SW ahead of the system, lake enhancement is
not really a factor as the cyclonic flow and cold air aloft is not
present, so inversion heights are quite low. There is good agreement
of the mean snowfall with this being less than an inch along the
southern forecast area border along I-94, to around 4 inches or so
in the higher elevations of Central Lower.
In the wake of the upper wave and sfc low, we do end up under the
cyclonic side of the upper jet, and period of lake effect is likely
from Tuesday night into Wednesday with some accumulations likely for
the WNW favored areas.
- High uncertainty for a potentially more impactful system Thursday
We have been watching a more interesting system for the period
centered around Thursday for a few days now. There has been a great
deal of uncertainty with this system as there has been a fairly wide
spread in the ensemble members, and a lack of good run to run
continuity. A couple of examples of this include a rain scenario a
few days ago with the low moving across the state, and ensemble
solutions showing a range from little to no snow to approaching a
foot.
One trend that has evolved is that the mean track has continued to
sink further south with each forecast cycle, and that trend has
continued this afternoon. The main axis of precipitation, falling as
snow, looks to stay south of the Michigan/Indiana border. That
results in probabilities of some of the higher amounts of snow for
our area becoming quite low. Until this energy, which is over the
Northern Pacific is sampled better, confidence will remain a bit
higher than normal with exact details. We will hold with a chance of
snow still, with the best chance for the southern portion of the
forecast area.
The pattern behind the Thursday system wherever it tracks, will
continue to feature an upper flow from the WNW. As has been the case
for much of this winter, short waves with precipitation chances will
be possible. It does look like in general, that we will see a
typical late winter/early spring pattern of periodic chances for
varying precipitation types and a roller coaster of up and down
temperatures with short waves riding along thew main baroclinic
zone over the continent.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
MVFR conditions with ceilings around 2500 feet AGL will improve to
IFR overnight with ceilings around 3500 to 5000 feet AGL expected
on Monday. Northwest winds will gust to 20 mph at times through
Monday afternoon then decrease to less than 10 knots on Monday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MIZ064-071.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
