891
FXUS63 KGRR 221856
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
255 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry this evening through Thursday night
- Showers and a few storms Friday and Friday evening
- Wet system still poised to move in Monday into Tuesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
- Mostly dry this evening through Thursday night
The vast majority of the area will be vastly dry through Thursday
evening, but with a couple of caveats.
The first of these caveats is going on right now with a couple of
isolated cells right near the forecast area border at the edge of
Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties. This is not a complete surprise as
the very weak cold front that came through yesterday was expected to
be entirely south of the area. Instead, it remains just north of I-
94 this afternoon, and is combining with up to 1,000 J/kg of CAPE
south of the boundary, and a very weak short wave aloft spilling
over the upper ridge axis to our west. This will move out of the
area by 5 or 6 pm.
Thursday will be mostly dry also, but a non-zero chance of a shower
or storm will be possible Thursday afternoon. The various model
solutions are showing isolated cells popping during the afternoon
hours on Thursday. This is the result of the boundary over our
southern counties this afternoon, moving NE across the area Thursday
afternoon as return flow pushes it NE. Enough instability of 1000-
1500 J/kg builds with higher dew points and temps well into the 70s
in place. The forcing along the front is weak, which will limit the
coverage.
- Showers and a few storms Friday and Friday evening
One slight chance in the trend of the forecast for Friday is a
chance of showers and a few storms earlier in the day now. This will
be the leftovers of robust convection to our west on Thursday with
the cold front. It will weaken significantly as it moves in during
the coolest part of the day. There are indications that it would
suppress instability for western areas with the dying rain, which
seems to happen quite a bit. Then, the eastern portion of the
forecast area could potential destabilize a bit ahead of the front
that would arrive late Friday afternoon and evening. Still some
details to work out with regards to timing and storm threat. One
thing that has definitely been consistent with regards to this is
that deep layer shear is quite limited, limiting the severe threat
quite a bit.
The rain should exit the forecast area no later than shortly after
midnight. We are then looking at a mostly dry and mild period for
Saturday into early Monday. We do not see significantly cooler air
moving in over the area as it continues to look like the cold air
will stay well north in Canada. We will end up being affected by
some upper ridging in the wake of the Friday system. This upper
ridging is then reinforced ahead of additional jet energy coming in
over the West Coast. This is what will keep us dry.
- Wet system still poised to move in Monday into Tuesday
The aforementioned jet energy coming in over the West Coast will
carve longer wave troughing over the Western U.S.. Eventually,
energy ejecting from this will help to organize low pressure to our
SW, and drive it toward the area.
This has been fairly consistent over the last few days. One of the
things that has been consistent also is that it is able to draw a
decent amount of moisture northward from the Gulf. The rain chances
will steadily increase on Monday, with the peak coming around Monday
afternoon and evening. There does look to be sufficient instability
at this time for thunder, but it is not that impressive for severe
weather. Likely because we will not have a chance to heat the sfc up
before clouds and rain move in.
Some showers may linger through Monday night before the system
exits. We will then see an elongated sfc ridge build in for Tuesday
and Wednesday from the SW. The air with this is not significantly
colder either.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
VFR conditions are ongoing and will continue through the evening.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the I-94 terminals this
afternoon/evening on a surface boundary with convective LLWS and
lower visbys/cigs possible in any storm that develops. Will
maintain the PROB30s and monitor for potential amendments if
confidence grows. Tonight, clear skies and light winds will once
again bring the potential for patchy fog. The worst conditions
will be at AZO/BTL as low-level moisture comes in from the
southeast. Any fog will dissipate after mid morning Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Much quieter conditions out on the lake compared to the last few
days with high pressure nearby. Lake breezes are ongoing with the
strong temperature difference between the land and lake.
Our next headline event for the nearshore continues to be expected
for the Thursday night through Friday night time frame. We will see
the winds ahead of the next area of low pressure increase from the
SW, with the waves building accordingly. With this being warmer air
moving in over the cold waters, the waves will not build very high.
Then we will see winds pick up behind the cold front Friday evening
with some cooler air moving in.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
