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375 FXUS63 KGRR 300445 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1145 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very cold tonight-Friday morning - Moderating temperatures with less impacts next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Very cold tonight-Friday morning We will be issuing a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire forecast area for late tonight and Friday morning. The Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect was cancelled early this morning. The bands of lake effect pushed further offshore than expected, and have remained there this afternoon and are shearing out with plenty of vertical wind shear present. We will see what is left of these snow showers come onshore this afternoon and early evening as the low level flow becomes onshore briefly as the land breeze from last night ends. A few snow showers will linger for the first half of the evening also as the strong upper wave north of Lake Superior this afternoon passes through the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. This feature will shift the low level winds to the NE once again. The importance of this is that this is expected to push all of the clouds offshore and south of the area overnight. This along with a weakening wind is going to allow temps to dive pretty good considering the entire area has quite a snow pack. Ensemble means that did well with last Friday`s extreme cold support lows generally 0 to -10F. The wind does not go calm, and those factors combined support min wind chills of -15 to -25. The I-94 corridor may not see it until just before daybreak with the clearing, but the coldest wind chills will be there by the time kids are going to the bus stops. The other thing the offshore flow does is it will pretty much end the lake effect for our area for a bit. The only place that might see some snow showers linger would be Little and Big Sable Points, where the band might just clip them. The offshore flow, and land breeze component with the very cold temps should push it entirely offshore by Friday morning. - Moderating temperatures with less impacts next week We will see ridging build over the area then through Saturday night. The lake effect axis should remain out over the lake Saturday night as the low level flow will be weak, and land breezes should focus it there. We also lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the deep cold air, so lake effect will diminish in intensity. It will be Sunday that we see the pattern transition from the Arctic cold and non-stop lake effect to a not-so-cold airmass with less frequent snow chances. This slight pattern change is a result of the flow from the NW having its origins from the Gulf of Alaska, instead of from the Arctic like the past couple of weeks. The next chance of snow then will come in the late Sunday night and Monday time frame. This will be supported by the next short wave coming in from the NW. The snow could be enhanced by Lake Michigan some as the flow ahead of the wave will be from the SW. The system being moisture starved, and having lower inversion heights due to the lack of deep cold air should keep this relatively tame by early February Michigan standards. We will see a break in the action, with the air staying relatively mild behind the Monday system. Most of the period from Monday night through Wednesday should be quiet as we see nice ridging at the sfc and aloft pass through. Inversion heights dropping being on the anti- cyclonic side of the upper jet should prevent much if not all of any lake effect that would try to get going. The next chance for some snow would come next Thursday with the next wave poised to pass through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light snow with areas of IFR conditions across central and southern Lower Michigan will improve to VFR as drier air brings clearing from the north between 06Z and 08Z. Expect VFR conditions with northeast winds AOB 5 knots through Friday evening. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Ostuno

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion