634
FXUS63 KGRR 150543
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1243 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight Chance (20 percent) For Showers This Afternoon and
Evening
- Mostly Dry Conditions Into Next Week, Warming Temperatures
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
- Slight Chance (20 percent) For Showers This Afternoon and
Evening
Lake effect showers remain largely offshore, but could still clip
Van Buren County this afternoon into tonight. Cloud cover will
remain in place underneath the trough overhead with plenty of low
level moisture in place. There is the potential for this moisture
to be deep enough with modest low level lapse rates to produce
showers. This can be seen in the sounding profiles this afternoon
and evening before the drier air moves in and pressure heights
rise. Confidence is not high due to no strong low level lift
signal, so only included 20 percent PoPs at this time.
- Mostly Dry Conditions Into Next Week, Warming Temperatures
Increasing pressure heights will bring a prolonged stretch of dry
weather through most of next week. Clouds will gradually decrease
Sunday into Monday as drier air advects into the region. The upper
level ridge will settle over the eastern CONUS with troughing
over the western CONUS. A shortwave tries to make its way into the
region Thursday which could bring our first chance for rain.
Ensembles are picking up on this, but timing is uncertain on
Thursday with rain chances potentially holding off until Friday.
Under high pressure and sunny skies for the beginning of next week
we`ll see some warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows
in the 30s. Southwest flow returns Thursday into next weekend
bringing warmer air. Highs for the second half of the week look to
rise into the mid 50s to low 60s with lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
IR loop shows abundant clouds across the region, but some clearing
near the lake shore. 00Z raobs indicate a pronounced inversion
around h85 that is trapping moisture below it which is leading to
a bkn/ovc MVFR deck.
The large upper low is slowly moving east, but still has a firm
grip on cloud cover across the terminals. Look for MVFR cigs
into the afternoon before clearing late in the day.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
