565
FXUS63 KGRR 182343
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
643 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow, Blowing Snow, and Whiteouts Tonight into Monday Night
- Multiple Snow Events Possible Mid to Late Week; More Cold Coming
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
- Snow, Blowing Snow, and Whiteouts Tonight into Monday Night
Forecast remains on track for impactful and hazardous winter
weather tonight through Monday. SW flow lake effect snow is
ongoing near and west of Grand Rapids, and will increase markedly
between 4 PM and 8 PM as inversion heights rise and the midlevels
above the lake effect saturate with the arrival of a Clipper
system. HREF mean suggests 3 to 6 inches of snow falling by 7 AM
Monday in a fair portion of the Winter Storm Warning area from the
first phase of this event.
Arctic cold front reaches West Michigan prior to daybreak Mon,
and winds becoming west-northwest during the morning will spread
snow farther inland, to also include areas east of Kalamazoo-
Ionia. Temperatures 10-15 degrees and winds gusting 30-40 mph
along with broken banded lake effect snow bursts will create
whiteout conditions at times, most frequently near/west of US-131
but also occasionally toward US-127. Additional QPF 0.10 to 0.25
inches during the day Mon is possible in the warning area, so even
with potentially smaller flake size, impacts will remain fairly
high given the falling and blowing snow. Totals around 6 to 8
inches by Mon night is a fair bet in much of the lakeshore
counties, with about a 10 percent chance for a given location
reaching 10 to 12 inches (not factoring in drifting).
In central to south-central Michigan, the advisory is expanded to
include Mount Pleasant, Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson for 1
to 3 inches of snow Monday but relatively greater-than-usual
impacts due to blowing snow, variable visibility, and slick road
conditions from the cold temperatures. Highway pileup crashes can
just as easily (if not more easily) occur in low-accumulation
areas when patchy whiteouts and changing road conditions occur.
Accumulating lake effect snow should persist through Monday night
but will trend a little lighter as broader synoptic support for
lift weakens. Temperatures will fall into the single digits with
wind chills around -5 to -15 F Tue morning.
- Multiple Snow Events Possible Mid to Late Week; More Cold Coming
A few inches of accumulating snow is likely on Wednesday as a low
traverses the Midwest along a baroclinic zone (north/south
temperature gradient). Temperatures could climb all the way back
into the 20s on the front end of this low on Wed before the next
surge of Arctic air moves in for late in the week. A majority of
the Euro ensemble members advertise daytime temperatures in the
lower single digits Fri and Sat as truly cold 850 mb air around
-30 C swings through the Great Lakes. The GFS and Canadian
ensembles are mostly not on board with air that extreme, but are
nonetheless in the ballpark of lower 10s to upper single digits.
Low temperatures Saturday morning could be well below zero,
perhaps -10 to -20 F in inland areas, under high pressure and a
radiational cooling setup (i.e. clear and no wind).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
Bottom line up front... significant impacts to aviation are
expected over the next 24 hours as a winter storm crosses the area,
with the worst conditions at MKG and GRR.
Widespread snow will increase in coverage and intensity over the
next several hours due to lake enhancement of an approaching
system. Moderate to heavy snow is expected at GRR/MKG with light
to moderate snow at the rest of the terminals. After 06z wind
direction begins to shift to westerly causing heavier snow to
extend into AZO/BTL as well. An arctic front crosses the terminals
after 11z causing further deterioration of conditions as winds
increase supporting BLSN in addition to continued lake effect snow.
Significant reductions in visibility are likely with widespread
LIFR conditions. Periods of near-blizzard conditions are likely
at MKG and may impact AZO/GRR at times. Winds begin to come down
mid to late Monday afternoon allowing some improvement, though IFR
and lower conditions are still likely. Expect southwest winds
tonight to become westerly Monday with gusts of 30-35 knots during
the day on Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
Hazardous conditions for small craft with SW winds this evening
will trend toward WNW winds with gales late tonight and through
the day Monday. Heavy freezing spray is likely Monday into Monday
night. Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected through
much of the rest of the week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-071.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ039-040-
045-051-058-065-072.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MIZ046-052-059-066-067-073-074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
