590
FXUS63 KGRR 231024
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
624 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry with moderating temperatures through Monday
- Next chance of rain comes in late next Tuesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
- Mainly dry with moderating temperatures through Monday
Nothing much has changed regarding the upcoming extended dry and
mild period expected for the area through early next week.
We do have one more weak wave rotating around the upper low to our
south today that we have to contend with. The biggest impact with
this will be a shroud of lower clouds that rotates through the
southern portion of the area. Maybe a sprinkle comes out of it, but
these clouds will not have much depth to them with a fairly strong
subsidence inversion building in ahead of the incoming ridge. The
dry low level flow from the NE will not help in allowing rain to
reach the sfc.
We see the ridge then move in on Thursday as the upper low moves far
enough away. This transition, especially the upper low moving
offshore and amplifying, will help to slow the progression of
features across the entire continent. We will see the ridge control
our area from Thursday, right on through early Tuesday. A trough
does try to approach Sunday. It will be sheared out as it encounters
the strong ridge and dry weather.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the period from the 60s
today, to 70s over the weekend and early next week. This is
supported as 850 mb temperatures increase from around +6C today, to
+12 to 13C over the weekend and early next week.
- Next chance of rain comes in late next Tuesday
We will eventually see a stronger jet streak and long wave upper
trough push east across the country early next week. Indications and
mean timing has rain chances coming in later next Tuesday at this
time. Would not be surprised to see this delayed a bit given the
strong ridging and very dry air in place that will resist the trough
a bit.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
As expected, there has not been much change in the position of the
cloud cover, especially low clouds, overnight. High clouds are
over the I-96 corridor terminals, clouds around 3500-4000 ft are
in place over the I-94 terminals, and some MVFR conditions just
south of I-94. We do expect a period of the MVFR clouds to come up
to I-94 for a few hours today. The bkn clouds around 3500-4000 ft
should make it to KGRR and KLAN. Late this afternoon and this
evening, the clouds will improve as they move out, and skies
become mostly clear.
Winds from the NE will pick up again by late morning, then
diminish late this afternoon and evening. Skies are likely to
clear out at all locations by 06z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
One more day of offshore winds that will approach Small Craft
Advisory criteria. As has been the case the last few days of this
pattern, the offshore component will be the main factor to limit
criteria from being met.
We will see winds taper off then Thursday and even more Friday as
high pressure settles right over the area through the weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
