399
FXUS63 KGRR 302336
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
736 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increased Fire Weather Concerns
- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026
- Increased Fire Weather Concerns
Warm temperatures and afternoon relative humidity dropping to
20-30 percent the next several days will increase the concern for
wildfires especially in the conifer forests north of Muskegon-
Clare. Gusts up to 15-25 mph are occurring Saturday afternoon
which are another component contributing to the concern. Winds on
Sunday will be a little weaker, followed by breezy winds again on
Monday. This dry pattern is expected to persist into Thursday,
with low spread in the solution space among the model ensembles.
- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday
The omega block episode over North America is favored to break
down later in the week, allowing upper-level shortwave troughs to
approach the Great Lakes from the west amid more quasi-zonal flow.
The majority of global ensemble members wash at least a modicum
of MUCAPE over Lower Michigan on Friday, marking our next
potential for a thunderstorm. The arrival window of any
precipitation during that day is still broad, which lends itself
to greater uncertainty in the high temperature forecast (between
lower 70s and lower 80s).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026
VFR conditions will continue thru the TAF period, thanks to deep
subsidence and dry air. Only some thin/patchy CI expected.
East winds will diminish to under 10 kt early this evening,
continuing overnight, and then become light and variable Sunday
with surface ridging in close proximity. This set up will permit
a westerly onshore lake breeze to develop at MKG by early Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026
East winds gusting over 22 knots Saturday morning have generally
diminished to 10 to 20 knots. Winds will become more northerly by
the Sable Points later this afternoon, building waves 1 to 3 feet.
Weaker winds are expected Sunday with direction dictated by the
daily lake breeze cycle. North winds Monday strengthening 15 to 20
knots should build up some chop especially around the Sable
Points, though for now expected to stay below the 3 to 5 foot
range.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
