868
FXUS63 KGRR 221116
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
716 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and Mild with Morning Fog
- Chances for Rain Return Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Dry and Mild with Morning Fog
Ensembles continue to lend high confidence in tranquil and warmer
than normal conditions through the weekend. A sharpening upper
level ridge over the central CONUS will reinforce a sprawling high
pressure anticyclone in the low levels across the Great Lakes,
migrating toward the Northeast. There is increasing ensemble
spread and thus lower confidence in high temperatures starting on
Monday and extending through the week, and highs may plausibly be
anywhere in the 50s or 60s. This will depend on the magnitude of
northern stream troughing that occurs over south-central Canada
and the Great Lakes, and the southward extent which cooler air
may reach. Ensemble members also diverge into clusters regarding
the the potential for a recovery of warmer air around the middle
of the week. So, next week is relatively unsettled.
Areas of fog are likely to develop each of the next few mornings,
as they have the past couple mornings. The REFS handled the
general location of the Wednesday morning fog threat in Mid
Michigan fairly well. For this Thursday morning it has been
suggesting areas of overnight fog mainly between Muskegon and
Ludington, which has so far been the case, and patchy fog may
develop elsewhere around daybreak. Tonight into Friday morning,
with the surface high centered north of Lake Huron, a flow of
relatively moist air off Lake Huron will spread into Mid Michigan
during the late evening, setting up fog potential first near
US-127 and spreading west toward US-131 areas around daybreak
Friday.
- Chances for Rain Return Next Week
The chance for precipitation is basically nil until about Tuesday
or Wednesday next week, and even so is far from settled. Any
individual model solutions producing heavy rain or strong winds
the middle of next week are outliers. The potential for a
significant autumn storm system -- even with the unsettled
evolution of the northern stream -- is remarkably low for this
point in the season.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 716 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Fog has remained shallow and/or patchy, with a few AWOS locations
reporting IFR. There was a denser patch of fog about 15 to 25
miles NNW of MKG earlier seen on satellite nighttime microphysics
and highway webcams, but that seems to have improved somewhat.
Light winds are expected today, generally from the north but with
some variability by location. There is another signal for fog
tonight with relatively moist air flowing in from Lake Huron this
evening, which would favor fog development around US-127 at first,
moving west toward US-131.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Light winds and a rather calm lake can be expected today.
Southeast winds on Friday will be a touch stronger but only about
10 knots. South winds on Saturday 15 to 20 knots may build waves
to 2 to 4 feet north of Whitehall.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
