759
FXUS63 KGRR 271115
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
615 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain to Snow on Sunday night
- Lake Effect Snow and Windy on Monday
- Clipper Snow Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025
- Rain to Snow on Sunday night
A potent closed upper low and surface cyclone moves through Lower
Michigan on Sunday with an area of warm advection precip ahead of
the low moving in tonight. Unfortunately,there may be a period of
freezing rain late tonight into Sunday morning in the northeast
forecast area where freezing rain recently resulted in power
outages. Temperatures should get above freezing there Sunday
morning, alleviating the chance for more power outages at least
until strong winds kick in Sunday night.
Rain changes to snow as cold air rushes in Sunday night along with
strong wind gusts to 50 mph possible in strong cold advection.
Moisture on the roads could freeze up then be covered in snow by
Monday morning resulting in treacherous travel conditions.
- Lake Effect Snow and Windy on Monday
Low visibility in falling and blowing snow will also be a hazard
into Monday afternoon. At this point it looks like 3 to 6 inches
of snow across the western half of the forecast area and 1 to 3
inches across the east.
Inversion heights fall and lake effect snow diminishes on Monday
night as the upper low pulls away.
- Clipper Snow Thursday
Fast northwest flow brings a short wave trough/clipper low late
Wednesday New Years Eve into Thursday with some lake enhancement
and the potential for travel impacts Thursday morning. At this
point it appears snow amounts should be in the 1 to 3 or 2 to 4
inch range.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025
IFR conditions will slowly improve to MVFR this morning across
southern Lower Michigan while areas to the north remain MVFR. Rain
and low clouds move in late tonight with conditions lowering to
IFR by 12Z Sunday. East winds near 10 knots today into tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025
Model soundings and cross sections of wind/mixing heights from the
NAM and GFS show 50 knots in the mixing layer under a strong cold
advection regime so a Storm Watch has been issued for Sunday night
into Monday afternoon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
