474
FXUS63 KGRR 260439
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1139 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing Rain Tonight and Friday
- Lake Effect Snow early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
- Freezing Rain Tonight and Friday
No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Model
soundings still show freezing rain and combined with expected
QPF, will result in about a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation
just north of I-96 from Muskegon County to Ingham County by late
morning on Friday.
This is a transient event as the sfc high and low are in a
progressive flow regime and this will limit icing amounts,
especially across the southwest forecast area where temperatures
and dew points rise above freezing around 8 AM Friday. Further
northeast, advection of cold and dry air continues at the surface
longer and pockets of freezing rain persist into the afternoon.
The precip ends by evening with weak sfc ridging building in for
Saturday. Winds are expected to be below 10 mph Friday night so
it will not be a factor for increasing the chance of power outages
by combining with any ice remaining on tree limbs.
- Lake Effect Snow early next week
Sfc low moving across Lower Michigan with rain on Sunday will draw
in cold air on the back side with a period of lake effect snow
late Sunday night through Monday. Model soundings show inversion
heights starting out near 10 kft, so measurable snow and impacts
to travel appear likely on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
Ceilings will lower to MVFR then IFR as freezing rain moves in
from 9 to 12Z from west to east. Around 12-15Z areas along and
south of a MKG to GRR to BTL line could start to see a transition
to rain before ending 16-20Z across the area. Ice accumulations of
a light glaze to a 0.10 are expected along and south of a MKG to
GRR to BTL line with 0.10 to 0.20 isolated higher amounts north of
that line. Ceilings will likely hover around 500 feet during the
late morning into Friday evening.
Expect southeast winds with gusts 20 to 25 knots overnight into
Friday morning then becoming light and variable as the low moves
overhead during the afternoon. Behind the low winds will be light
and from the north to northwest.
GRR Airport DSS Update:
No changes to the airport briefing information provided Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-065>067-073-074.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EST Friday for MIZ064-
071-072.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
