331
FXUS63 KGRR 031126
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
626 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and breezy today with a few light showers
- Light showers tonight and tomorrow
- Cooler, more light showers Thursday and Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
- Warm and breezy today with a few light showers
While we may see some light showers today, this is likely to be
overshadowed by another abnormally warm fall day thanks to
persistent southerly winds and a stout upper ridge aloft. Driving
this pattern is a negatively tilted trough and associated surface
low across the central plains, the latter of which is expected to
merge with another weaker surface low currently across Wisconsin.
While all of this occurs to our west, the key point for our area
is that this will drive persistent southerly low level flow and
warm air advection throughout the day, and drive afternoon
temperatures into the upper 60s to mid 70s. This is approximately
20 degrees above average for this time of year, and only a few
degrees below daily record highs (see climate section below).
Meanwhile, rain has largely ended overnight tonight aside from
some spotty drizzle, and the vast majority of new rain is
expected to hold off until later tonight. However, our northern
lakeshore counties (roughly Muskegon northward) may see some
additional light showers this afternoon. In any case, even if this
does occur, amounts will be very light and most of the area should
remain dry today. Finally, wind gusts may approach 30 mph at times
throughout the day, particularly during the late morning through
late afternoon.
- Light showers tonight and tomorrow
Overnight tonight, the occluded surface low will slowly drift to
the northeast and into the upper peninsula, and as it does so, a
broad area of light showers is expected to push through the lower
peninsula tonight through tomorrow. While forecast confidence is
high that most of the area will see some light rain, the highest
totals are expected to occur to our northwest and southeast due to
the presence of a dry slot aloft. All told, a reasonable upper
ceiling for rain tonight and tomorrow will likely be around 1/4
inch, with best chances (roughly 50%) to reach that threshold
along the lakeshore north of Muskegon, and in our far southeast.
There are also hints of some modest instability Wednesday
afternoon and that leaves open the potential for a rumble of
thunder or two, but this is largely restricted to a layer below
10,000 feet due to a stout warm nose aloft, and this appears
unlikely at this time. Lingering showers should end Wednesday
evening as the occluded front moves to our east. Finally, while
cloud cover and light rain will keep us a few degrees cooler than
today, Wednesday`s temperatures are expected to once again make a
run at 70 degrees.
- Cooler, more light showers Thursday and Friday
Between Thursday and Friday, the remnants of the weakening,
occluded low will drift southeast, and will be followed by a cold
front and round of light (possibly lake enhanced) rain showers.
While we may see some initial showers along the northern lakeshore
as early as Thursday afternoon within southwesterly flow ahead of
the cold front, more widespread showers are likely to arrive late
Thursday and continue through Friday as the cold front pushes
south. 850 mb temperatures continue to be forecast near 0C behind
the front, and with lake temperatures still in the 14-16C range,
this is sufficient for some lake-enhanced rain showers, although
the north-northwesterly fetch will likely keep most of the lake
enhancement along along the immediate lakeshore and in our far
northern counties.
Temperatures will also cool back to near seasonal averages (low to
mid 50s) by Friday, and should remain in this vicinity into early
next week. Beyond Friday, confidence in the day-to-day details is
fuzzy due to a low-predictability pattern, but model guidance
continues to hint at another shortwave and reinforcing shot of
cooler air late in the weekend. In addition to maintaining more
seasonally appropriate temperatures, this could yield a few light
(and possibly lake enhanced) showers Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
Low stratus is gradually lifting this morning, and VFR conditions
are expected to develop at all sites within an hour or two of the
start of the period where this hasn`t occurred already. Gusty
south winds are expected through the day with gust speeds
approaching 25 kt at times. While some patchy low clouds are
possible in addition to more widespread mid/high clouds, VFR
categories should prevail through daylight hours.
Overnight, wind gusts should subside slightly, but a steady
southerly breeze will persist. Some light showers will be possible
at MKG near the end of the period, and ceilings will begin to
lower as well. Most ceiling category reductions should hold off
until beyond the 12Z TAF period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 615 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
Daily record maximum temperatures for November 3 (and the most
recent occurrence) are as follows:
Grand Rapids (GRR): 76 degrees (2015)
Lansing (LAN): 77 degrees (2015)
Kalamazoo (AZO): 74 degrees (2015)
Muskegon (MKG): 70 degrees (2022)
Battle Creek (BTL): 75 degrees (2015)
Holland (BIV): 76 degrees (1938)
Daily record warm minimum temperatures for November 3:
Grand Rapids (GRR): 59 degrees (1938)
Lansing (LAN): 58 degrees (1987)
Kalamazoo (AZO): 56 degrees (2005)
Muskegon (MKG): 57 degrees (2008)
Battle Creek (BTL): 55 degrees (1977)
Holland (BIV): 58 degrees (1938)
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>846.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ847>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRC
AVIATION...BRC
CLIMATE...BRC
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
