554
FXUS63 KGRR 310639
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
239 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and Dry Much Of The Week, Elevated Fire Danger Through At
Least Monday
- Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Return Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026
- Warm and Dry Much Of The Week, Elevated Fire Danger Through At
Least Monday
A dry ambient airmass and surface ridging will continue to promote
dry conditions across the area for much of the week. Models suggest
high confidence in this through Thursday with little spread in
guidance. While 850mb temps cool to near 8C with the passage of a
trough early in the week, highs in the 70s will start the week,
warming into the 80s late week as 850 mb temps climb to the mid
teens. Winds will gust up to 15-25 mph at times. This will lead to
increased fire danger. See the Fire Weather section for more details.
- Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Return Friday
The arrival of a low pressure system, and passage of a cold front
across the Central Great Lakes, will bring showers and thunderstorms
into the forecast. This will be aided in the upper-levels by the
breakdown of the omega block pattern across the area of late,
resulting in shortwaves driving forcing across the area. At least
marginal MUCAPE supports a thunder risk, though uncertainty as to
the timing/placement of frontal features supports some variance in
forecast solutions by late week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026
No significant changes to the going forecast. Predominantly
easterly winds tonight will become light and variable going into
Sunday morning. By early afternoon, winds will become westerly at
MKG as a lake breeze develops. Only high clouds are expected
through the TAF period, with high confidence in VFR given the dry
ambient airmass.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026
Weak, primarily lake breeze driven, winds are expected today with
hazardous winds and waves not expected. Short range model guidance
suggests winds to 15-20 knots are possible, particularly near the
points. Wind direction does not appear favorable for advisory
level waves at this time. High pressure overhead then tempers
winds going into mid- week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026
Elevated fire danger conditions are expected at least Sunday and
Monday. Wind gusts of 15-25 mph along with MinRHs in the 20s will
support an increased concern for wildfires. The greatest risk will
be across the conifer forests of Central Lower Michigan, along and
north of a Muskegon to Clare line. Given no rainfall is expected
until at least Friday, elevated fire danger conditions may continue
into mid-week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
