569
FXUS63 KGRR 281056
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
656 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain Showers Late Tonight into Thursday
- Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend
- Unsettled Pattern Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
- Rain Showers Late Tonight into Thursday
Shortwave trough moving through currently has sparked off some
isolated light showers and sprinkles. Any light shower should
clear the area by daybreak with skies clearing.
Another shortwave trough moves through the northern Great Lakes
tonight into Thursday. Associated positive vorticity advection
seems weaker, but mid level frontogenesis and low to mid level
moisture with the front are sufficient enough for scattered
showers to develop. These showers will move into the Ludington
area around midnight and gradually shift southeast with the front
into Thursday morning. Showers may linger through Thursday
afternoon along the I-94 corridor before dry conditons return
Thursday night.
High temperatures today will be in the low 70s with lows in the
50s. Thursday behind the front temperatures will only warm into
the 60s with low 70s across southern and south central Michigan.
Temperatures Thursday night into Friday drop into the 30s.
- Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend
Ensembles and cluster analysis are trending drier for Saturday as
high pressure holds a little longer over the Great Lakes region.
There are still some solutions that bring light rain to the area,
but the number of ensemble members has dropped over the past 24
hours. Current forecast has a 20 percent chance for southwest
Michigan.
Sunday the cluster analysis begins to diverge on the overall
pattern. There is an increase in members showing light rainfall
amounts over the area with positive vorticity streaming through
and increased mid level moisture. Best chances 30 to 40 percent
are along and south of I-96 with amounts less that a quarter of an
inch.
- Unsettled Pattern Next Week
As mentioned in the previous section model solutions as seen in
the cluster analysis diverge with lower confidence on the exact
forecast for next week. A closed low is anticipated to develop
over the Plains, but the exact strength, track, and timing vary.
Southwest flow and the looming low could bring multiple rounds of
rain to the area through most of next week. The chance for below
freezing temperatures next week remains low as mild temperatures
remain in place.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
VFR conditions continue with clearing skies this morning.
Southeast winds turn to the south and southwest today with winds
largely 5 to 15 knots. Low level wind shear develops between 6-12Z
with southwest winds around 40 knots. At this time showers should
largely hold off until after 12Z, MKG currently has a PROB30 after
7Z for light rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Offshore winds will gradually turn to the southwest today and
build this evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
to develop late tonight into Thursday with gusts around 25 knots
and wave heights 3 to 6 feet. Highest waves are expected to be
north of South Haven. A front will move through Thursday bringing
lighter northwest winds and waves falling below 4 feet.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Thursday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
