002
FXUS63 KGRR 082306
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
706 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain tonight and Thursday night
- Wet and warmer late weekend into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
- Light rain tonight and Thursday night
A band of light rain is developing currently over Minnesota/northern
Iowa along a cold frontal boundary. The front and associated light
rain will sweep east across the cwa from late this evening through
the overnight. Lingering light rain over the southeast cwa
Thursday morning will quickly move southeast out of the cwa. QPF
from a tenth in the southeast to a third of an inch in the
northwest is expected to fall. The cold front will stall over
northern Indiana Thursday before moving north Thursday night. A
wave of low pressure moving northeast along the frontal boundary
from the Plains will produce more showers and thunderstorms. At
this time, instability is severely lacking and so thunder chances
are isolated at best (10-20%) and severe weather isn`t
anticipated.
- Wet and warmer late weekend into next week
Friday looks dry as high pressure moves overhead. Once the high
moves east Saturday, temperatures will begin to rise. H8
temperatures are progd to climb to 16c by Monday. This will push
surface temperatures into the mid 70s Sunday and Monday. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible along the warm front Saturday
night/Sunday morning and then again throughout the rest of the
weekend as short waves ride northeast from the southern Plains to
the Great Lakes on the back side of the departing ridge. NCAR
medium range guidance points toward the potential for strong to
severe storms Monday and Tuesday; we`ll definitely keep an eye on
this.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
Mostly clear skies are ongoing with increasing cloud cover
expected later this evening. This is associated with a cold front
crossing the terminals Thursday morning, with rain showers
likely. Most likely is altocu around 5-7kft with the frontal
passage and light rain showers given a lack of moisture. VFR is
likely, with the chances of sub-VFR conditions aob 10 percent.
Once showers clear the terminals, skies will clear out once again.
Wind is the other concern with this TAF package. LLWS is expected
tonight due to both winds increasing to around 50-60 knots at 2kft
overnight ahead of the front, and about a 30 degree offset between
surface and 2kft winds. Wind gusts of 20-30 knots are expected
overnight and to around 20 knots during the day. Southerly winds
this evening will become westerly by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
A gale warning remains in effect until 11 am Thursday north of
Holland. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the same
time south of Holland.
South wind flow is increasing as high pressure to the east gives
way to low pressure over the upper Midwest. Look for a wind shift
to the north behind a cold front that will move through Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
The crest on the Grand River is near Comstock Park as it slowly
moves downstream. Locations upstream will continue to slowly fall
through Friday. Earlier this morning we cancelled the flood
warning for the Thornapple River near Caledonia and the Red Cedar
at East Lansing; the rivers there have fallen below flood stage.
Locations downstream from Comstock Park on the Grand River will
see the river continue to slowly rise. Don`t ever drive onto a
flooded roadway, because the road may have washed out beneath the
flood waters.
Light rain is expected tonight with qpf of a tenth over the Lower
Grand basin and a third of an inch across the Muskegon basin.
That`s likely not enough precipitation to push the river levels
back up. More light rain is expected Thursday night and Friday and
this time the Grand basin will see two thirds of an inch of rain
and around a third over the Muskegon basin. The two rainfall
events will likely slow the rate of river level falls.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844-845.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...04
HYDROLOGY...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
