915
FXUS63 KGRR 162343
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
643 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow showers into Saturday morning
- Lake Effect Snow continues through Sunday
- Bitter Cold and snow to start the week ahead
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
- Snow showers into Saturday morning
Surface low will allow periods of snow showers to continue
through this evening. Another round of snow is moving onshore and
will make its way through southern lower Michigan through the
first half of the evening. This will correspond with areas of the
best omega especially closer to the lakeshore. A short wave
trough will be moving through north of I 96 overnight that will
correspond with better QPF, better frontogenetic forcing and
slightly warmer temps.
As temps get colder, flake size will get smaller. So with colder
air south of I 96 have decreased snow amounts slightly. So best
snow bands overnight will be north of I 96 with an additional 2 to
5 inches and locally higher amounts possible. 1 to 3 inches
expected along and south of the I 96 corridor, especially west of
US 131.
- Lake Effect Snow continues through Sunday
Lake effect snow will continue through the weekend, with highest
amounts west of the US 131 corridor, especially the lakeshore.
Some areas along the lakeshore could see snow the entire weekend.
Snow rates and infiltration inland will increase Saturday
evening. Latest Omega shows a weak band through Southern Kent
county and a prolific band due to a thermal trough and an area of
QPF along the US 10 corridor.
Sunday will begin with another break in the snow showers. This is
due to a weak negatively tilted upper level ridge that will keep
the coldest air to the NW and reduce any instability. That break
will be short lived as the arctic front moves southward into the
region Sunday evening. The best timing for snow Sunday will be out
ahead of the arctic front. While 850mb temps will be -16C range
it will correspond with area of strong lift and instability. That
will allow for increase snowfall. Once the 850mb air gets below
-20C, while there will be snow and reduced visibilities, the type
of snow that is generated will become smaller and is more
difficult to accumulate. Along those lines, strong wind will
correspond at and beyond the front which will see drifting and
blowing snow.
Lows Sunday into Monday will be in the single digits with an
additional 2 to 5 inches of snowfall expected, highest amounts
West of US 131.
- Bitter Cold and snow to start the week ahead
As previously stated an arctic air mass will move over the region
Monday and Tuesday. 850mb temps as low as -25 to -30C are
possible Monday. Daytime temperatures will uncharacteristically
drop as the day continues with lows Tuesday morning around 0F. The
other concern with these low temps will be corresponding winds.
The signal for a strong gradient remains. Winds of 15 to 25 with
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible Monday. While highest
winds will be along the lakeshore, widespread gusty winds across
the lower peninsula are expected. The persistent wind will drop
wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning in the
-10 to -20 range. Have held off on any watches for now but a cold
weather advsy will probably be needed.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
Radar shows an area of 25-35 dbz echos near MKG/GRR. This
corresponds to 1/2 mile visibility and perhaps brief periods of
1/4 mile visibility. This area of snow will persist for a couple
of hours before moving northeast. The southern terminals will see
the lower visibility band move east with fairly rapid improvement
around 20z.
Another surge of arctic air will move over the lake late tonight
and produce another round of lake effect snow and lower
visibilities Saturday morning, mostly at GRR/MKG, but perhaps
clipping AZO...although that is less certain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
Radar shows an uptick in echo activity between I-96 and I-94.
A deep upper trough is over the region and minor short waves
continue to pivot and rotate through the trough. The upper trough
won`t move through the state until Saturday night. As such we`ll
continue to see light snow at times. A mix of IFR/MVFR expected
through the period.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037-038-
043-044-050-056-057-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
