300 FXUS63 KGRR 182016 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 316 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain Thursday night into Friday - Turning cooler with some light snow this weekend - Fairly quiet weather early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 - Light rain Thursday night into Friday Warm frontal precipitation moved off to the east this morning and much of the area is now situated in the warm sector of the system. Temperatures have surged into the lower 60s across Southern Lower Michigan. We look to remain dry tonight into into Thursday morning. Some rain will develop on Thursday with the chance of even a few thunderstorms as hinted by HREF guidance. A low will be located in Southeast Iowa by Thursday evening, advancing into Eastern Wisconsin Thursday night. 850mb moisture transport increases on Thursday, but is stronger Thursday night. 850mb LIs become negative Thursday and continue so Thursday night. At point we start thunder Thursday evening in the forecast, but that may need to be brought forward into Thursday afternoon. At this point our chances are confined to the stronger 850mb moisture transport that occurs after dark. We are likely looking at around a quarter of an inch of rain at most locations with this system, so not significant rain to chance much with ice in area rivers. - Turning cooler with some light snow this weekend We turn cooler this weekend behind tomorrow`s system. We set up an upper trough this weekend with air at 850mb that gets progressively colder. By Sunday into Monday 850mb temperatures are cold enough for lake effect snow. We look to have light snow Saturday into Sunday with an inverted surface trough. The precipitation/snow this weekend looks on the light side so no significant issues/impacts with snow. High temperatures in the 40s and 50s Thursday and Friday cool back into the 30s this weekend which is normal for this time of year. - Fairly quiet weather early next week Early next week looks to be quiet with mainly dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. Model discrepancies show up mid next week with the timing of a shortwave. It looks like models are trying to converge on Wednesday being our next chance for precipitation. Highs on Monday and Tuesday in the 30s warm to around 40 on Wednesday. Overall the 7 day forecast is fairly benign with no major system to deal with. Temperatures trending back towards normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026 Aviation conditions have improved since this morning as dryer moves into the region. Latest vis loop shows clearing skies moving from southwest to northeast across Lower MI; we`ll see skies scatter out by within the next hour or two at locations that haven`t yet. Winds will kick up with the clearing due to better mechanical mixing, but will diminish with sunset. As the winds diminish, the wet ground will help to develop MVFR fog overnight. The fog will decrease Thursday morning. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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