084
FXUS63 KGRR 102352
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
652 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Turning colder; rain showers Wednesday
- Lakeshore rain/snow showers Thursday night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
- Turning colder; rain showers Wednesday
Skies are clear and temperatures are well in the 60s...over 10
degrees above normal. A cold front moved across the cwa earlier
today and highs tomorrow will be below normal in the mid 40s. High
clouds will begin to filter in tonight ahead of the next clipper.
- Lakeshore rain/snow showers Thursday night
We`re moving into a pattern that will have a taste of winter with
it. A clipper currently over the intermountain west will take a
track toward northern IN by Wednesday afternoon. This clipper will
be the start of a huge upper low development. Light rain showers
are expected Wednesday afternoon as the surface low arrives, but
qpf looks limited to around a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, as the
clipper moves east, strong north flow will develop behind it and
draw another short wave south from Canada. The main dynamics will
remain over the lake and so we`ll have highest PoPs near the lake
shore Thursday and Friday. Lake effect rain and snow showers are
going to develop as h8 temps fall to -6c, creating lake delta t in
the mid teens. If any snow falls, it`s likely to be over the
northwest cwa Thursday night. Air temperatures Thursday and Friday
will be too warm for snow. However, the air may be cold enough for
some light snow Thursday night near the lake shore south of LDM. A
few tenths of an inch of snow are possible. However, there`s a 50%
chance of an inch or two and a 30% chance of around 3, generally
between Hart and Ludington.
The upper low is progd to shear out by Saturday leading to a dry
weekend. Temperatures will remain chilly through the weekend with
highs in the 40s. A slight moderation in temperatures occur early
next week when highs approach 50 as ridging moves overhead.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
VFR conditions are expected through 6 Z, as model confidence has
grown in fog beginning around 7 Z across the CWA. The crossover
temperatures this afternoon dropped into the high 30s to low 40s,
indicating that temperatures overnight a few degrees lower would
support fog formation. IFR visibilities are favored, but could
temporarily drop to LIFR if areas of fog grow. Winds will remain
calm until 14 Z, when fog will begin to dissipate, briefly returning
to VFR conditions. Towards the end of the period, light rain will
enter the region from the northwest, but timing and obstructions to
visibility are less certain.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...CAS/Angerman
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
