224 FXUS63 KGRR 081122 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 622 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow passes mainly southwest of forecast area this morning - Snow passes mainly north of area Monday night - Increasing precipitation chances by this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 - Snow passes mainly southwest of forecast area this morning The SPC mesoanalysis 800-750mb EPVg display nicely tells the story regarding the northwest-southeast oriented FGEN snow band passing east of Chicago at this time. There is a sharp reflectivity gradient on the west side of this band, indicating good coupling between the ascending branch of the FGEN response and the overlying layer of negative EPV (conditional instability). The consequent narrow, sharply focused snow band will give far southwest Lower MI a glancing blow of little to no accumulations. For the rest of the forecast area, accumulating snow is looking far less likely due to subsidence contributed from both shortwave ridging aloft (per water vapor imagery) and mesoscale subsidence poleward of the FGEN band. - Snow passes mainly north of area Monday night As noted previously, a northern stream shortwave trough and clipper tracks north of Lower Michigan Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance indicates low chances for accumulating snow to reach as far south as our northern forecast area. For example, regarding probabilities of exceeding a tenth of an inch of accumulation, latest REFS guidance indicates a 50 percent chance of this happening in Clare County (our far northeast forecast area), whereas 08/01Z NBM guidance gives just a 10 percent chance of this happening north of US-10. Tuesday will be the warmest day in quite a while prior to colder air filtering in behind the exiting clipper. High temperatures farther south towards I-94 could make a run at 40 degrees. - Increasing precipitation chances by this weekend It seems likely that dry conditions will prevail in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe with surface high pressure centered in the area. Precipitation chances nudge upward beginning late Thursday/Friday and continue into the weekend. This uptick in precipitation chances is partly associated with the typical growing uncertainty that occurs at longer forecast projection times and this will usually trend the forecast towards climatological PoPs. The other reason behind this uptick in PoPs is that we do see a signal for longwave troughing in the west and downstream ridging somewhere in the mid-section of the CONUS by the weekend. Cluster analysis shows growing agreement with this solution among the medium range ensembles. The main questions are amplitude and phase speed of this wave. Although precipitation details are a bit tough to iron out at this point, what`s more certain is a warmer pattern due to upper ridging centered near or perhaps just east of our longitude, accompanied by deep southwesterly flow. Some guidance like the AI GEFS even suggests much of the southern forecast area could get into the 40s by Sunday. This should provide a clue that precipitation type could be more of a rain/snow mix, with a non-zero probability of some freezing rain as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 622 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 The probability for IFR conditions being met at any of the terminals through the period is very low...around 5 percent. Based on radar trends, we scaled back on mention of snow, leaving just a brief PROB30 for Kalamazoo early this morning. MKG ceilings did briefly get down to 3000 feet AGL earlier this morning, but don`t expect MVFR ceilings to be a concern today across southwest Lower MI. Ceilings will most likely stay above 6000 ft AGL. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...TJT

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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