312
FXUS63 KGRR 271058
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
658 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Waiting on the storms today
- Next chance for rain end of the week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026
- Waiting on the storms today
As suspected, the convection in this northwest flow regime has
vastly underperformed so far for Lower Michigan despite the hi
res convective models insisting on bringing it in. So we wait to
see when and if we get anything. Latest trends show an uptick in
the storms across northern Minnesota, but that`s a long way off
and the rain across Wisconsin is decreasing as it crosses Lake
Michigan so we will continue to wait. If the storms do finally
get here, hail and downburst winds will be the main threats.
Whatever convection does reach us today should be pushing south
this evening with some lingering showers possible after midnight
as a surface low and trailing front clears the forecast area.
Surface high builds in with fair weather for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Next chance for rain end of the week
An upper level shortwave trough rounds the top of the western
CONUS ridge and cuts off across the Great Lakes on Friday and
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms possible for those two
days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Patchy IFR in low stratus can be expected again this morning but
should diminish by late morning. Thunderstorms could bring heavy
rain, hail and winds over 40 knots today and this evening. The
current forecast probabilities are highest between 22Z and 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Thunderstorms could bring heavy rain, hail and high winds today
and this evening then north winds and waves will increase after
midnight. A SCA/BHS has been issued from late tonight to Tuesday
night as high pressure builds in. Conditions will improve on
Wednesday under high pressure.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Tuesday
night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
