131
FXUS63 KGRR 242229
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
629 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer through mid week
- Chance of strong to severe storms late Thursday, then colder
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
- Warmer through mid week
A large dome of high pressure currently over Michigan will drift
east tonight and winds will become southerly. Those south winds
will advect warmer air and moisture northward beginning Wednesday.
H8 temperatures are progd to climb from -2c today to +4c by
tomorrow afternoon and +12c Thursday afternoon. At the surface,
that will translate to highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 50s
(~10 degrees above normal) and upper 50s (near US-10) to lower 70s
(near I-94). Although it won`t feel humid, dewpoints will climb
into the lower to mid 50s across the southern cwa.
- Chance of strong to severe storms late Thursday, then colder
The increase in moisture, coupled with the eastward movement of a
cold front result in thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
A lee-side low will be the driving force for the frontal boundary
moving into the cwa after 18z. Models show quite a bit of shear
and MUCAPE around 1k j/kg near I-94. RRFS reflectivity simulates
strong storms south of the cwa from late Thursday afternoon into
the evening. However, this is a bit farther south as compared to
yesterday`s model runs. While we could see some storms over the
southern cwa, the most likely location for severe storms will be
south of the cwa. But, we`ll continue to monitor for future
development.
Once the cold front moves through, H8 temps fall to -10c Friday.
Look for lows in the mid 20s Thursday night and Friday night and
highs from the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday. This time of year when
we get strong cold fronts, the cold air doesn`t last long and this
will be no different. Highs will rebound to the mid 50s Sunday and
around 60 Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Very high confidence in VFR conditions continuing through the TAF
period due to the ambient dry airmass. BKN/OVC high clouds are
expected, with some lowering of cloud bases to around 10kft
Wednesday afternoon similar to what was observed today. Winds
become light and variable overnight before increasing from the
south on Wednesday. Gusts to around 20 knots are likely during the
afternoon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
