421 FXUS63 KGRR 152330 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 630 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest Flow Lake Effect Snow Tonight and Friday - Lake Effect Plus Arctic Blast Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Southwest Flow Lake Effect Snow Tonight and Friday Classic southwest flow lake effect snow set up for tonight through Friday with clipper surface low tracking across northern Lower Michigan and surface ridge axis to the southeast over the Ohio Valley. A vorticity maximum at the base of the shortwave trough axis will aid in providing lift as inversion heights increase from around 5 kft this evening to over 10 kft by noon on Friday. Expect bands of heavy snow to be aligned from near South Haven to the northeast and clipping western Kent and Newaygo Counties. The flow goes more westerly Friday afternoon as the shortwave trough axis moves east and the heavier snow should taper off as inversion heights come down below 10 kft. - Lake Effect Plus Arctic Blast Next Week A longwave trough will persist through the weekend and LES will continue to flare up at times as weak, quick moving shortwave troughs rotate through. It will be cold through the week with 850 mb temps bottoming out around minus 25C on Monday and Tuesday. Right now our forecast apparent temperatures are only minus 10F during this time, but relatively unmodified arctic air coming around the southern part of Lake Michigan could penetrate into the southern half of our forecast area and deliver below zero air temperatures and wind chill/apparent temperatures of minus 20F or lower. This is something we will focus on the next few days to see if cold weather headlines will be necessary. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 627 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 The last of the lake effect snow is moving east and producing flurries at the terminals. The next area of snowfall is already in northeast WI and will begin to affect the terminals after 06z from west to east. Cigs/vsbys will fall to IFR around 12z...earlier at MKG...and remain there most of the day as light snow falls. Snowfall rates from 0.1 to 0.2 in/hr expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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