193
FXUS63 KGRR 201857
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
157 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds still possible through the afternoon
- Snow chances continue through the weekend
- Multiple weak system bring rain and snow next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
- Strong winds still possible through the afternoon
So far the strongest winds with this event on the lakeshore have
been 54 mph at the Saugatuck Pier and on land 48 mph at the
Jackson airport. BUFKIT profiles still show winds to advisory
levels in the mixed layer through this afternoon and early
evening. Therefore, wind gusts to around 45 mph or possibly 50
mph will occur through 700pm or so. The low was at peak intensity
this morning around daybreak and will continue to fill this
afternoon. The window for stronger gusts is certainly closing
given the low is in a weakening/filling state.
- Snow chances continue through the weekend
Light snow this afternoon is related to the surface low off to our
north. Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s this afternoon have
kept any impacts from the snow to a minimum. Bursts of snow have
occurred with little to no accumulation due to the warm ground and
marginal surface temperatures. 850mb temperatures are too warm
for lake effect snow this afternoon and do not really become cold
enough for lake effect snow until Saturday night. Light lake
effect snow is possible Saturday night into Sunday. Omega fields
do not look impressive so not expecting much in the way of
accumulation during this time frame. Can`t rule out an inch or two
Saturday night, especially up near Big and Little Sable Points
and down towards South Haven.
- Multiple weak system bring rain and snow next week
Tuesday will bring a clipper system through the area with the
chance for light snow. Temperatures look cold enough with this
system for all snow. Best chances for some light snow accumulation
with this system will be across Central Lower Michigan.
Beyond the Tuesday system there is quite a bit of model disparity
with another low set to traverse the area in the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Given the timing differences at
this range in the forecast, confidence in details is low. We have
a rain and snow mix in the forecast for Wednesday at this point
with a dry Thursday, but this could very much be subject to
change.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
Showers have transitioned to snow with IFR cigs at MKG and GRR and
IFR vsbys at AZO and BTL. Periods of IFR conditions will continue
until around 22Z when the front will move through and conditions
will slowly improve. MVFR cigs will persist overnight as will the
winds. There is a 50 kt jet above, though winds mixing to the
surface will be 30 to 40kts until the front moves through,
between 22Z to 00Z. Conditions will improve after 00Z to MVFR and
then improve further after 10Z. MVFR cigs or lower should persist
through the TAF period.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MIZ056>059-064>067-
071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Ceru
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
