146 FXUS63 KGRR 200010 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 810 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain Showers North Tonight - Warmup Friday into Saturday, Rain Saturday Night/Sunday - Seasonable Temperatures Early Next Week, Mostly Dry && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - Rain Showers North Tonight A mid-level wave drives a surface low north of the area tonight, with the precipitation shield limiting the areal extent of showers to areas north of M-46. The latest probabilistic guidance favors conditions remaining warm enough for precipitation to fall as rain. This is reflective of the latest high resolution model guidance which allows temps to warm into the mid 30s before showers begin. - Warmup Friday into Saturday, Rain Saturday Night/Sunday Southerly flow Friday into Saturday will support a warmup into highs in the 50s north and 60s south. This will be disrupted by a mid- level wave driving a cold front across the area, though guidance varies on when exactly this occurs. Robust moisture doesn`t arrive until late Saturday Night/Sunday in the post frontal environment. Latest guidance trends with the slowing of the front suggest precipitation remaining rain for most if not all of Sunday. - Seasonable Temperatures Early Next Week, Mostly Dry As the low/troughing departs, Monday will see the advancement of surface and mid-level ridging into the region. The forecast is generally for dry conditions, however latest guidance suggests that shortwaves (which are difficult to pin down at this forecast range) may drive low precipitation chances. Highs will generally be in the 40s to low 50s, which is near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 VFR cigs and vsbys will continue through most of the evening hours. There is a chance for MVFR cigs to develop for KGRR, AZO, MKG and BTL tonight between 06Z and 13Z. Have adjusted the TAF`s accordingly. These are not expected to reach fuel alternate status but there is a low chance so have put scattered at 1KFT to show this potential. The other aviation concern is the chance for LLWS overnight. There should be a low level jet that drops down overnight with 40kts as low as 010KFT between 07Z and around 14Z. While it will slacken a little, a 35 to 40KT jet should continue until around 13Z tomorrow morning. This should lift and winds at the central TAF sites should increase after 14Z. MVFR cigs should develop late tomorrow with potential widespread MVFR cigs after 22Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Only one site remains at or above flood stage as of this afternoon. The Grand River at Comstock Park is now cresting at minor flood stage. The Maple River at Maple Rapids went below minor flood stage this morning allowing the warning to be cancelled. With light amounts of precipitation expected over the next few days, additional flooding is not expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Ceru HYDROLOGY...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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