709
FXUS63 KGRR 140721
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
221 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect showers and clouds today
- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late
week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
- Lake effect showers and clouds today
The trough that has been over the area for several days continues to
linger today with sub-zero 850mb temps. This will keep lake effect
stratus across the area, with lake effect showers over the lake into
the lakeshore counties as winds move from north-northeasterly to
northwesterly. Thermal profiles suggest snow mixing in is possible
before daybreak though no accumulation is expected if this does
occur.
- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late
week
The breakdown of a Rex block will move the aforementioned trough off
to the east with ridging and high pressure driving weather for the
first half to two thirds of next week. With 850mb temps climbing
into the 6C-8C range this will lead to warmer and dry conditions
with increased sunshine. Low pressure and a cold front return late
week, with a shortwave expected to ride the northern periphery of
the ridge. This does bring some rain chances back to the area. Highs
will be near 60 by the latter part of the week, notably above normal
for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Primary concern for this forecast package is lake effect clouds
and showers. Satellite shows lake effect cloud cover advancing on
the area from the north tonight with ceilings expected to fall to
MVFR levels Saturday morning. They will remain there, below 2kft
at times at LAN/JXN, through at least mid evening Saturday.
Guidance is known to be a bit optimistic when it comes to the
clearing of lake induced stratus so MVFR conditions may need to be
extended in future updates. Low chance (approx 30%) of showers
clipping MKG in the morning Saturday as winds shift more onshore.
MVFR visbys are possible in any resulting showers.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ844-845.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
