117
FXUS63 KGRR 211809
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
109 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake Effect Snow Tonight into Monday Morning
- Snow Could Impact Travel Tuesday-Wednesday
- Temperature Roller Coaster Late Week into Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
- Lake Effect Snow Tonight into Monday Morning
After a period of record to near-record warmth across the region,
much more typical late February weather settles in for a bit and
the first opportunity for lake effect snow in quite some time
arrives late tonight into Monday. While the main low that provided
strong winds with some snow on Friday has moved east and
weakened, lake aggregate troughing has set up over the region with
a weak surface low indicated over Lake Huron keeping some light
to occasionally moderate synoptic snow going near and north of
U.S. 10 and into northern Lower MI. During the day, most of our
region dries out.
As we move past 00z tonight, renewed upper troughing moves over
the Great Lakes and 850mb cold air advection commences as -10C to
around -15C air arrives steadily from late tonight into Monday
morning. This air will be plenty cold enough to create over lake
instability with delta Ts getting to around -17C or -18C and lake
induced CAPE values of 50-100 J/kg per the Nam12. Moisture depth
actually looks really good with 15-20k ft indicated via Nam12
Bufkit soundings for various lakeshore locations, due in part to
the lake aggregate low over Lake Huron sinking southeast and
providing some mid to upper level snow production over the
developing lake induced clouds and snow showers. As a result, as
we head through the day Sunday there may be a hybrid look to the
radar with some synoptic snow and lake effect snow occurring.
While omegas within the DGZ itself look to be only -2 ubar/s or
so, there will be generally decent lift in the 925-850mb layer
with -3 to -6 ubar/s, highest near LDM and LWA and especially down
toward BEH.
Expect a wind component to be a factor as a strong surface high
moves into the northern Plains (~1045mb) and a developing
Nor`easter moves up the East Coast (970s mb), placing Michigan in
between these two synoptic patterns and thus in a region of
enhanced pressure gradient force with wind gusts of 30-35 mph
likely as snow occurs. This may add a dicey element to travel
conditions at times wherever snow bands occur especially near and
west of US 131 Sunday into Monday morning. The NBM highs across
the region may be a touch high on Sunday (low-mid 30s) with
deterministic ECMWF/GFS/GEM supporting highs in the upper 20s to
around 32 for much of the region, and certainly dropping colder
Sunday night with teens to around 20 expected.
The probability of 2" or more of snow during this period is 60-80%
from Ludington to Pentwater/Hart and then in a triangular region
from Holland to Kalamazoo and over to Pentwater. The probability
of 4" or more for these same regions is 20-40%. Current storm
total forecast amounts there are 1"-3" with spots of 3"-4"
possible. Elsewhere it is looking like 0.5"-2.0" total from late
tonight into Monday morning. Some delayed travel may occur.
- Snow Could Impact Travel Tuesday-Wednesday
Model guidance indicates a clipper system will likely impact Lower
Michigan late Tuesday into Wednesday with snow being the expected
precip type in spite of this being a warm advection event.
Antecedent surface temperatures below freezing before snow occurs
may aid in producing some slick conditions on roads. ECE/CMC
probabilities for 1" or more along and north of I-96 are 60-80%
late Tuesday into Wednesday with deterministic runs indicating
1"-3" possible. The timing of the snow may catch the Tuesday
evening commute in this region so some impacts are possible then,
as well as the Wednesday morning commute. Some shift in this area
of snow may occur so trends will be monitored.
- Temperature Roller Coaster Late Week into Weekend
Ensemble guidance certainly has some spread late week into the
weekend. Temps may recover into the upper 30s to around 40
Wednesday afternoon then drop back down Thursday with highs near
or possibly below freezing. Mid 40s or warmer are currently
favored by next Friday before another cold front may sweep through
the region by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
Bands of snow return this evening with ceilings dropping after
03Z. MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected with IFR cigs possible at
times. Cigs expected to drop below IFR by 06Z with periods of
snow showers possible overnight into Sunday morning. IFR and lower
visibilities (ie. < 1sm) will be possible in the heavier bands,
especially along the lakeshore, affecting MKG. Best chance for IFR
ceilings will be between 06Z to 12Z Have IFR cigs through this
timeframe though latest models have actually moved the worst vsbys
conditions later Sunday morning, after 13Z. Currently have PROB30
groups representing this potential but will refine more as event
comes closer. Snowfall amounts will be heaviest along the
lakeshore though there is a chance that we get upwards of an inch
accumulation at GRR by Sunday evening.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Monday for MIZ037-043-064-071.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...Ceru
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
