530
FXUS63 KGRR 232319
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
719 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday
- Showers and A Chance of Thunderstorms Thursday
- Dry and Warming This Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday
Isolated flurries continue across south-central Michigan this
afternoon and will diminish over the next few hours. No accumulation
is expected. High pressure then arrives for the Tuesday/Wednesday
timeframe with a dry low-level moisture profile supporting dry
conditions.
- Showers and A Chance of Thunderstorms Thursday
Attention then turns to Thursday as a mid-level wave drives a
surface low across the region. The attendant cold front with this
low looks to bring rain showers to the area given the arrival of
better moisture. Elevated instability will be supportive of a chance
of thunderstorms mainly south of I-96 where the front arrives later
in the day. This will be driven by an EML advecting into the area.
SPC does have areas just to the south of our forecast area outlooked
for potential severe weather Thursday. Given high deep layer shear,
if we get sufficient instability we can`t completely rule out an
isolated hail threat Thursday afternoon towards the I-94 corridor.
The GEFS based ML guidance seems to support this as a low but non-
zero potential event. However, confidence is low at this stage given
questionable instability due to capping and moisture quality and
agree with SPC that the best risk is south of us.
- Dry and Warming This Weekend
Cool weather Friday persists into the start of the weekend as upper-
level troughing sets up across the area. However surface ridging and
a dry ambient airmass will keep precipitation out of the forecast.
Conditions begin to warm Sunday into Monday as large scale ridging
displaces the trough from across the Great Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Visible loop shows clouds dissipating across Lower MI. High
pressure will continue to drift over the terminals tonight
resulting in light winds and clear skies. Southwest winds will
increase Tuesday morning as the high drifts east.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>847.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
