347
FXUS63 KGRR 221832
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
232 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through Saturday Morning
- Chances for Showers and Storms Beginning Saturday Evening
- Heat Builds into the Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
- Dry through Saturday Morning
Dry weather is forecast from this afternoon right through Saturday
morning. High pressure will dominate the Great Lakes weather
through that time. BUFKIT overviews show very little moisture
through the depth of the atmosphere outside of limited cumulus
level moisture (4-7k feet). Temperatures will be comfortable as
will humidity levels. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80 the
next two days with lows mainly in the 50s.
- Chances for Showers and Storms Beginning Saturday Evening
The weather pattern becomes more active Saturday evening into
early next week as a northwest upper flow moves shortwaves
through the region. A stronger wave looks to move through Saturday
into Saturday night with additional waves continuing into early
next week. Machine learning schemes are picking up on Sunday and
Monday being two of the more active weather days with a warm front
in the area and fairly deep moisture given PWATs in the 1.50 to
2.00 range. Stronger winds through the profile also aid the
possibilities of severe weather with deep layer shear values
increasing to 40-50+ knots. Right now our 7 day forecast QPF is
under a half inch but could see this needing to be nudged upward
with time.
- Heat Builds into the Weekend
850mb temperatures tonight will be around +9C. These temperatures
will increase into the weekend with +20C or higher expected from
Sunday into Tuesday. Sunday and Monday look to be the warmest days
with highs pushing to around 90F.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
VFR conditions will continue through Thursday afternoon. THe
exception could be some shallow ground fog late tonight at AZO and
JXN, but this should not be thick enough to affect visbys for any
appreciable time.
Northwest winds will gust 15 to 20 knots at times this afternoon
before diminishing blo 10 knots this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
We will maintain the marine headlines (Beach Hazards Statement and
Small Craft Advisory) as is through 11 pm this evening. We will
likely be able to drop the northern 3 zones during the early
evening and the southern 3 zones during the mid evening. Winds
will steadily subside through the remainder of the day. Currently
winds remain in the 10 to 20 knot range over much of the area with
25 knot gusts. By midnight winds should have fallen to 10 knots
or less. Waves range from 3 to 5 feet at most locations, but are
already beginning to subside, especially over our northern zones
north of Muskegon. High pressure settles into the area tonight and
will remain in place through Friday. So, bottom line is after this
evening we are expecting fair weather on Lake Michigan through the
end of the week. The next chance for building waves and increasing
winds will come Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-
043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Duke
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
