490 FXUS63 KGRR 281043 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 643 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and Trending Warmer into Next Week - Rain and Thunderstorms Monday Night into Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 - Dry and Trending Warmer into Next Week Ongoing light snow showers will gradually taper off by 5am. Otherwise dry conditions are expected as pressure heights rise today. Temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Warm air advection will bring mostly cloudy skies to the area this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds this afternoon will continue to advect warm air to the area into next week with temperatures warming into the 50s on Sunday and 60s on Monday. - Rain and Thunderstorms Monday Night into Tuesday Attention then turns to Monday night into Tuesday as moisture and lift better line up. Upper level divergence will be present on the south edge of the upper level jet. The low level jet will also be in play with warm air advection and moisture advection. Precipitable water values will gradually build to around 1.25 inches. Instability will also be increasing with 500 to 1000 J/kg by Tuesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the coverage Monday night and how long it may linger into Tuesday. Depending on how the first round plays out along with the timing of the front Tuesday will impact our severe potential Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overall several models (CSU, NSSL, and NCARs AI- NWP forecasts) highlight the probability for severe thunderstorms over western Michigan. We`ll continue to monitor trends and update the forecast as timing and hazards become clearer. Winds Tuesday also could be quite breezy with the stronger winds aloft. Warm air advection at the surface will provide suitable lapse rates for gusts aloft to mix down. ECMWF probabilities of 40 mph gusts or greater are 50 to 80 percent across much of the area. After Tuesday dry conditions move in for Wednesday with temperatures in the 40s. Depending on the low track Thursday into Friday, rain may impact portions of the area, with the best chances (50 percent) along and south of I-94. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 643 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the day today. Northwest winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon. BKN ceilings around 13000 feet are expected to move in this evening. Tonight the low level jet will result in low level wind shear around 6Z continuing into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 Northwest winds will gradually weaken resulting in lower wave heights by the late afternoon. Winds shift to the southwest this afternoon and build into Saturday night. Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed tonight into Sunday due to wind gusts approaching 25 knots and wave heights 3 to 6 feet. Winds will remain from the southwest until a front moves through Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front Monday night into Tuesday along with Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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