021
FXUS63 KGRR 301758
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1258 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Transition to lake effect near lake shore today
- Accumulating snow possible Monday afternoon/night
- Cold week ahead
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Transition to lake effect near lake shore today
Surface obs reveal low pressure over central Lake MI early this
morning. Regional radar shows snow extending west to eastern IA
which means we have several hours of synoptic snow to go before
we transition to just lake effect snow showers. Spotter reports
indicate 3-6 inches of snow have fallen so far. During the past
few hours, radar echos have increased to 30 dbz or greater
indicative of heavier snowfall and flake size has increased quite
a bit since midnight concurrent with the strongest isentropic
lift. Pressure advection is maximized through 09z, after which
pressure advection becomes more neutral. At that point, expect the
snowfall rates to begin to decrease. That said, several more
inches of accumulation is anticipated prior to the synoptic system
moving east.
Boundary layer wind progs indicate we`ll see NNWly winds develop
around noon combined with deep moisture to produce lake effect
snow showers. Given the wind direction, the lake shore counties
will see the largest impact with several more inches of snow.
We`ll keep the winter storm warning going through 10 am and see
how the lake effect evolves. We may need to extend the warning for
a few lake shore counties.
Winds will increase this afternoon as the low moves by and high
pressure builds in behind it. This may result in blowing and
drifting snow which could create hazardous travel conditions.
- Accumulating snow possible Monday afternoon/night
Boundary layer winds will become southwesterly Monday ahead of the
next upper trough. H8 temperatures combined with deep moisture
will result in a southwest lake effect event Monday afternoon and
night. Several inches of snow are possible centered on northern
Ottawa, Muskegon, southern Oceana counties as this event unfolds
and headlines may be needed.
- Cold week ahead
Highs around 30 are expected Monday through Wednesday. An arctic
cold front will pass through the state Wednesday with the coldest
air of the season behind it. H8 temperatures are progd to fall to
around -18c behind it; surface high temperatures in the lower 20s
are anticipated Thursday and Friday along with more lake effect
snow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
Boundary layer winds are becoming NW areawide in wake of last
night`s storm system, and gusts near 25 kt expected through the
afternoon. This will result in lake effect snow showers... with
MVFR cigs and occasional IFR vsbys... near Lake Michigan. MKG and
AZO TAFs will see greatest impact through 22-00Z. Cyclonic flow
will diminish tonight as weak ridge of surface high pressure
drifts overhead. Expect winds to weaken with generally SCT-BKN VFR
clouds tonight.
Though TAFs will not reflect any visibility restrictions late
tonight, fresh snow and light winds will allow for substantial
radiational cooling. The question will be whether any low level
moisture contributions stemming from temps hovering near freezing
today /melting snow/ will be overcome by drier air advancing in
from the NW.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
No changes to the marine headlines. Surface low over central Lake
MI will move east today and winds will become NNWly. As high
pressure builds in behind the departing low, winds will increase
to gales late this morning and continue through the afternoon.
Once the gales decrease this evening, we`ll likely need another
small craft advisory.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ037-
043-050-056-064-071-072.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
