954
FXUS63 KGRR 140439
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1139 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warmer through Tuesday, wintry mix possible mid week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
- Dry and warmer through Tuesday, wintry mix possible mid week
Visible loop shows clear skies across the region this afternoon due
to high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. As the high tracks
toward the SE US, a southern stream low will move east across the
southern tier of states. Models show the precipitation shield
moving as far north as central Indiana. The cwa will remain dry,
however, we may see some mid/high clouds move into the region
Saturday. Once that low moves away Sunday, predominately clear
skies will return that will continue into early next week.
Meanwhile, a northern stream low will push a cold front south into
Lower MI late Monday, creating a baroclinic zone that an eastward
moving lee side low will use to track toward Lower MI Wednesday.
Strong isentropic ascent in the warm sector will result in
precipitation developing across central Lower. The ECMWF ensembles
keep the baroclinic zone a bit farther south than the GFS
ensembles do and so they develop some freezing rain across the
central cwa Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The GFS is a bit
warmer and farther north and is mostly rain. DESI LREF guidance
shows a 15-20 percent chance of 0.05 inches of ice during this
time. There`s enough model guidance to get our attention to the
possibility of freezing rain, but it`s a bit too early to start
pinning down timing and amounts.
Once that low moves by, another is quickly on it`s heels Thursday
night and Friday. This system will be colder and the snow
potential is higher. LREF probabilities show a 33 percent chance
of 2 inches of snow north of I-96. Probabilities will changes as
we go through the weekend into next week, but we`ll keep an eye on
it.
High temperatures during the next week will climb into the lower
40s Saturday and rise to the mid 40s Sunday. Across the southern
cwa, 50s are possible by Wednesday, but that depends on exactly
where the baroclinic zone sets up.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
The potential of some fog tonight is our main focus with the 06z
forecasts. KMKG has already seen a few brief periods of MVFR fog
over the last couple of hours. They will have the best chance of
impactful fog, likely into IFR category. This is because they have
the lightest winds there, and cross-over temperatures for fog are
more likely to be met. The threat will taper off as you head to
the SE, due to better winds holding up.
Once the fog burns off in the morning hours, lots of VFR expected
through the day. Winds will generally remain under 10 knots. It is
looking like fog will be more likely everywhere right at the end
of this forecast period with higher moisture and less wind
expected.
No concerns for the GRR forecast.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...NJJ
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
