020
FXUS63 KGRR 141055
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
655 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot Temperatures Continue
- Cooler Temperatures and Rain Chances Return Friday into Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
- Hot Temperatures Continue
A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area today with heat
index values expected to be in low low 100s. This is due to the
dome of heat in place under a strong high pressure system. 925 mb
temperatures rise into the 26 to 29 C range and based on sounding
profiles we expect high temperatures to be around 95 to 100
degrees with the highest values toward the US-127 corridor.
Wednesday heights begin to decrease with the trough building over
the eastern CONUS and us moving into more northwesterly flow
between the ridge and trough axis. This will bring slightly lower
temperatures to some areas, but with 925mb temperatures still in
the 26 to 29 C range it won`t be much. We`ll still see highs in
the 95 to 100 degree range and heat index values in the low
hundreds. The best chances on the HREF are along and south of
I-96. We`ll continue to monitor trends for tomorrow and consider
where additional Heat Advisory headlines will be needed.
Thursday will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 80s to
mid 90s. Heat index values may approach 100 along the I-94
corridor. At this time any rain chances look to hold off until
late Thursday night.
- Cooler Temperatures and Rain Chances Return Friday into Weekend
Northwest flow sets up for the latter half of the week with us
nestled in between the ridge axis to the west and trough axis to
the east. In this set up we`ll see shortwave troughs move quickly
through the area and bring us several chances for rain and
thunderstorms. Timing for each shortwave varies this far out, but
the best chances look to be on Saturday when we see a more defined
shortwave move through with a weak low level jet. Overall do not
expect any one day to be a complete washout with more dry time
than not Friday and through the weekend.
Temperatures in this setup will not be as hot. Highs are expected
to be in the 80s (some low 90s on Friday), with lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
No changes from the previous discussion. VFR conditions continue
with southwest to west winds of 5 to 15 knots. A brief period of
low level wind shear is possible between 6-9Z Wednesday with winds
25 to 30 knots around 2000 feet.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
High pressure continues today with light westerly winds and waves
0 to 2 feet. Northwest winds develop tonight increasing waves up
to 3 feet mainly north of Muskegon until Wednesday morning. Winds
become more northerly toward the end of the week with chances for
thunderstorms returning Friday through the weekend. Winds pick up
over the weekend as well with the potential for Small Craft
Advisory Conditions along with a moderate to high swim risk.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Here are the high temperature records for July 14 and 15.
Location July 14 July 15
Grand Rapids 102 (1936) 95 (2013)
Lansing 101 (1936) 99 (1977)
Muskegon 94 (1995) 93 (1995)
Kalamazoo 108 (1936) 103 (1936)
Battle Creek 104 (1936) 100 (1977)
Holland 98 (1995) 98 (1932)
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
CLIMATE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
