753
FXUS63 KGRR 131035
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
635 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot Temperatures through Wednesday
- Rain Chances Return for Friday into the Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
- Hot Temperatures through Wednesday
High pressure will build over the area before the upper level
ridge weakens Wednesday. Thunderstorms currently moving south into
northern lower Michigan are anticipated to weaken as they move
into a less favorable environment. Areas along and north of US-10
may see the remnants of these storms, otherwise dry conditions are
expected.
We`ll see temperatures in the low to mid 90s today with
heat index values pretty close to air temperatures. Spots in
Clare, Isabella, and Gratiot counties may see heat index values
approach 100.
Tuesday 925mb temperatures increase into the 27 to 30 C range.
Based on sounding profiles this will result in high tempeatures
around 96 to 100 degrees with the hottest temperatures in Clare,
Isabella, and Gratiot counties. Dew points will also be higher
tomorrow in the 60s to low 70s. This will result in heat index
values in the 100 to 105 range. Locations along the US-127
corridor have the best potential to see heat index values of 105
or greater, therefore an Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for those
locations.
Wednesday areas along and south of I-96 have the best chance to
see heat index values rise again into the 98 to 104 range. There
will be some relief at night with lows in the upper 60s to low
70s, but these multiple days of hot temperatures will be dangerous
to those outside and unable to cool off. Make sure to find air
conditioning, avoid strenuous activities, wear light clothing,
check on family members and neighbors, drink plenty of water, and
watch for signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
- Rain Chances Return for Friday into the Weekend
As mentioned, the upper level ridge is expected to weaken around
Wednesday with northwest flow expected over the area. Within the
northwest flow we`ll have to watch for shortwaves to track through
the region which will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Overall confidence is not high at any one time for these chances.
This is due to differences as seen in the cluster analysis of the
strength of the overall ridge and trough. Depending on how the
pattern sets up, we could see an active period of rain chances
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Remnant showers from the storms to the north will continue to
weaken as they move south. Rain may briefly occur at MKG and GRR
this morning. Ceilings with the rain are around 9000 feet and will
scatter out during the late morning. VFR conditions continue into
Tuesday morning with light westerly winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
West to southwest winds develop today around 5 to 15 knots with
waves of 0 to 2 feet. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday
before winds shift to the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Other than a stray shower near Ludington, dry conditions are
expected through much of the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Here are the high temperature records for July 13, 14, and 15.
Location July 13 July 14 July 15
Grand Rapids 108 (1936) 102 (1936) 95 (2013)
Lansing 99 (1936) 101 (1936) 99 (1977)
Muskegon 93 (1995) 94 (1995) 93 (1995)
Kalamazoo 109 (1936) 108 (1936) 103 (1936)
Battle Creek 103 (1936) 104 (1936) 100 (1977)
Holland 99 (1936) 98 (1995) 98 (1932)
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for MIZ040-046-052-059-067-074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
CLIMATE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
