324
FXUS63 KGRR 190900
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
400 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Morning fog in portions of Central and South-Central Michigan
- Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms today into tonight
- Breezy Friday with snow showers into the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026
- Morning fog in portions of Central and South-Central Michigan
Dense fog or freezing fog has settled over Central Michigan near and
north of Alma to Big Rapids. Dense fog from Southeast Michigan has
crept into eastern and central Ingham and Jackson counties per
satellite and MDOT cameras. Some further westward advancement in
Ingham and Jackson is possible but not certain. May have to join DTX
in extending the advisory later in the morning. Some guidance
sources erode the fog after daybreak with increasing surface winds
but other guidance holds onto it until midday, particularly in
Central Michigan. Fog may also return to Central Mich for a portion
of tonight.
- Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms today into tonight
Early morning showers and thunderstorms have developed in northern
Indiana, earlier than most of tonight`s models have suggested, where
south winds around 850 mb are advecting moist air underneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. This complex may skirt Jackson on its way to
Southeast Michigan this morning, but confidence is fairly low in its
evolution and impact. Several runs of the HRRR, which have been
relatively aggressive in bringing just enough instability for a
chance of thunderstorms into south-central Michigan this morning,
suggest gusty southeast winds could emanate northwest of the precip
complex.
Mid-latitude cyclone out of Kansas today is expected to deepen as it
tracks to West Michigan by Friday morning. Out ahead of it will be
another mild day for much of the area, followed by modest midlevel
instability to support showers and a slight chance of thunder from
this evening into tonight.
- Breezy Friday with snow showers into the weekend
Cold air advection will be more pronounced on the south side of the
low-pressure system`s track Friday, with strong wind gusts over 40-
50 mph possible in southern Michigan depending on the low`s eventual
depth. Rain showers will also change to wet snow during the day.
The broader synoptic pattern turns more favorable for lake-effect
snow showers over the weekend with deeper troughing and cyclonic
flow with colder 850 mb air flowing in. Can`t count out some limited
to minor winter weather impacts on roads. Temperatures will be close
to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026
VFR conditions are expected with a 20 percent chance for MVFR
visibilities to develop by Thursday morning. We`ll need to monitor
the dense fog to the north and east. It may try to expand westward
into LAN and JXN. At this time confidence is not high enough that
it will expand that far west, therefore have not included it in
the forecast. Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Best
chances 40-50 percent will be from AZO to JXN and up to LAN.
Ceilings will be lowering from VFR to IFR Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night with another round of rain and a few thunderstorms
moving in after 00Z. At this time left the mention of thunder out
of the TAF forecast as confidence was not high enough that thunder
would impact any one TAF site.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ039-040-
045-046-051-052-067-074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
