013
FXUS63 KGRR 311835
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
235 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increased Fire Weather Concerns
- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday-Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026
- Increased Fire Weather Concerns
Dry conditions continue with high pressure and flow off the
Canadian shield region providing low dew points, highs a little
above normal, and lows a little below normal. Dry fuels,
particularly in some conifers, and afternoon relative humidity
dropping to 20-30 percent the will keep fire weather concerns
elevated through Thursday. Winds have been relatively light this
Sunday which has tempered the threat, but breezier winds with
gusts over 20 mph are favored on Monday.
- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday-Saturday
The breakdown of the omega block pattern later this week will
usher in weak shortwave disturbances amid more westerly upper-
level flow. A majority of global model ensemble members rebuild at
least some amount of instability Friday/Saturday as low level
moisture increases and mid level lapse rates become at least
marginally more supportive. Ensembles are still spread pretty far
on possibilities for when it might rain, between early Friday and
Saturday, making for relatively lower confidence in the forecast
details at the start of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026
High pressure will remain firmly in control, and will continue to
yield VFR conditions through the TAF period, with only
patches/areas of high clouds to contend with over western areas.
Light and variable winds today and tonight will give way to east
winds 5-10 kt early Monday.
The only exception is at MKG, where westerly onshore lake breezes
/near 10 kt/ will prevail through the rest of this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026
High resolution models indicate nearshore winds from the north
will strengthen to about 10-15 knots late Sunday afternoon between
Muskegon and South Haven, which may build 1-2 foot waves. On
Monday, high pressure advancing toward Michigan from the north
will provide a flow of northeast winds, though the winds may get
tugged more northerly during the afternoon with the added
influence of the daytime lake breeze pressure system. The HRRR is
most aggressive with developing 15-20 knot north winds down the
shoreline Monday afternoon, with other models showing a similar
pattern but with slightly weaker wind speeds. This may build 1-3
or 2-4 ft waves. Winds could be hazardous for small craft around 5
to 8 PM Monday near Big and Little Sable Points.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
