143
FXUS63 KGRR 071853
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
153 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon
- Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday
- Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday
- Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
- Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon
Surface observations at present show a robust cold front
(temperature difference across the front of 20F) that recently
passed through the Chicago metro area. Scattered showers are likely
along the front as it crosses lower Michigan. However, thunderstorms
are unlikely given a notable lack of instability across the region.
Any showers will clear the area by afternoon as the front exits to
the east. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely as the front moves
through.
- Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday
Surface ridging takes over as the dominating driver of our weather
pattern into Sunday. Sunday will be a bit cooler than the past few
days with highs in the 50s, still notably above normal for this time
of year. 850mb temps climb from near 0C tonight to near 10C Monday
driving Monday`s highs into the 60s. Expect dry conditions with
partly to mostly sunny skies.
- Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday
Our next system of note arrives mid next week ahead of phasing
northern and southern stream waves. Some questions remain on the
timing and degree of phasing, which will affect the low track and
subsequent northward extent of a warm sector across the area. the
GFS suite, including deterministic, ensemble, and AI model guidance
suggest a track closer to the Michigan/Indiana state line. The ECMWF
suite, excluding the AI-ECMWF (which is more in line with the GFS),
favors a more northerly track with the low moving across lower
Michigan. The main difference this would have is a faster changeover
to snow on the backside of the system. There is some potential for
thunderstorms as well, highest near I-94.
- Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week
The cold air brought in behind the northern stream wave will cause
precipitation to change over to snow, with a weak signal for a
period of wintry mix across Central Lower depending on how fast the
warm layer aloft cools. As the track of this system is fine-tuned
over the coming days, so will specifics on any wintry precipitation.
The upper-level troughing will result in a flip to a colder pattern
across the area, with 850mb temps going into the negatives. This
will bring highs back into the upper 30s/low 40s which is more
seasonable for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
The main band of rain has moved east and we have a lull in
precipitation. A cold front to the west is currently located near
Aurora, IL. A few rain showers have developed north of MKG in
advance of the front. It`s possible a few showers will develop
southward but not certain.
Gusty southwest winds will become WNW later this afternoon once
the front moves through and decrease to 10-15kts toward evening.
Latest visible loop shows clearing skies over Minnesota and that
drier air will move over the terminals late tonight.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
