184
FXUS63 KGRR 251748
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
148 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and Warming Monday and Tuesday
- A Few Showers and Storms Possible Wednesday
- Dry and Cool Late Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
- Dry and Warming Monday and Tuesday
High pressure and ridiging from a omega block developing to our west
will be the main driver of the weather for the next day or two.
Highs today will approach 80 and highs Tuesday will be well into the
80s given 850mb temps approaching 15C. A lack of moisture will limit
cloud cover as the northern stream jet remains to our north/east,
and persistent Gulf moisture is progged to stay south.
- A Few Showers and Storms Possible Wednesday
Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday with a northern stream
trough drives a backdoor cold front across the area. PWATs ahead of
this front are marginal, but sufficient for at least a chance of
precipitation. MUCAPE aoa 1000 J/kg in medium range guidance
suggests thunderstorms are possible with this activity. The best
signal for precipitation is just inland of Lake Michigan where a
meso-low signal suggests some enhanced convergence potential.
- Dry and Cool Late Week
The post frontal airmass arrives late Wednesday into Thursday as
surface ridging returns across the area. Highs are forecast to fall
into the 70s as 850mb temps fall into the mid to upper single
digits. The persistent omega block will keep conditions fair through
the remainder of the week as the pattern will force shortwaves east
of the area. Large scale subsidence, plus limited moisture, will
lead to ample sunshine later this week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
VFR is expected into Tuesday. Ceilings north of MKG are expected
to be at or above 9,000 feet. Winds will be between SE and SW
mostly below 10 knots, but there could be some gusts around 16
knots near and north of MKG/RQB. Fog potential tonight is quite
low, and if it`s anywhere it would be in Southeast Michigan coming
off Lake Erie, probably not reaching JXN.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
Analysis of the pressure and wind patterns suggests no marine
hazards through at least Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon will
need monitoring for an advancing high setup as the post-frontal
surface high sets in and interacts with a meso-low over land.
NAMNEST/RRFS guidance suggests a potential 17-20 knot burst of wind
along the lakeshore in the afternoon, which may be sufficient for a
window of Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement conditions.
Otherwise, persistent surface ridging looks to keep marine
conditions benign.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
