539
FXUS63 KGRR 271732
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1232 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow and Wind Cause Hazardous Travel Conditions Today
- Periods of Snow through Friday
- Cold Temperatures Continue
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026
- Snow and Wind Cause Hazardous Travel Conditions Today
Snow continues largely along and north of a South Haven to Alma
line early this morning. Upper level divergence with the left exit
region of the upper level jet, positive vorticity advection, along
with the southwest flow over Lake Michigan will provide a
favorable set up for 1 to 3 inches to fall prior to daybreak.
Winds will also cause blowing and drifting snow across the area.
Snow, blowing snow, and reduced visibilities will impact the
morning commute. These impacts may briefly extend eastward as the
front moves through later this morning bringing better lift in the
low levels as we lose the deeper moisture.
Continuing into the day expect lake effect snow to continue within
the northwest flow. Large lake surface to 850 mb temperature
differences will support lake effect snow with the low level
moisture remaining in place and low level instability with
favorable lapse rates mixing down stronger winds aloft. These
gustier winds will impact snow ratios even with the better saturation
in the dendritic growth zone. Additionally moisture will be
shallow limiting accumulations during the day with 1 to 2 inches
largely west of US-131 and lower amounts to the east.
Lake effect snow will continue mainly along the lakeshore tonight.
There is a signal that a heavier band could develop in the
northwest flow impacting portions of Allegan, Van Buren, and
Kalamazoo counties which could warrant and extension of the
advisory.
- Periods of Snow through Friday
850 mb temperatures remain cold continuing lake effect chances
mainly along the lakeshore through the week. We`ll see upticks
with synoptic support tonight into Wednesday, Wednesday night into
Thursday, and Thursday night into Friday. The signal for deep
moisture however remains questionable. Therefore the probabilities
of 1 inch or more over a 24 hour period remain 40 percent or
lower with the higher probabilities focused in Allegan County.
- Cold Temperatures Continue
Wind chills are expected to slowly improve this morning as air
temperatures warm. However wind chills of 15 below zero remain
possible toward daybreak, therefore no changes to the Cold Weather
Advisory. Wind chills will be in the single digits below zero
through the day and into tonight.
With highs in the teens and lows in the single digits above and
below zero, wind chills overall are not expected to improve much
with values around zero through most of the week. We`ll see
another potential for dangerous cold temperatures Thursday night
into Friday with lows around 10 below zero and wind chills
approaching 20 below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026
Lake effect snow showers will diminish over the next six hours
with LAN first to improve, MKG and AZO last. Expect IFR and lower
visbys under snow showers with MVFR cigs. Cigs likely climb to VFR
for LAN/JXN/BTL tonight while remaining MVFR for the other
terminals. Isolated snow showers may impact AZO/GRR/MKG but with
isolate coverage have gone PROB30. After 06z, lake effect snow
redevelops across AZO/BTL, expanding to GRR after 12z. Low chance
of showers reaching MKG/LAN/JXN directly but in the vicinity is
likely. Those snow showers will be primarily MVFR visbys, and
widespread MVFR cigs expected areawide regardless of showers.
Gusts to 30 knots are expected through early evening before
diminishing.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ037-
038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
