017 FXUS63 KGRR 111955 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 255 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer Temperatures continue into next week - Next Chance for precipitation next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 - Warmer Temperatures continue into next week Cold northwesterly flow will persist through the latter half of the work week. Expect gusty winds to continue today before slackening as the pressure gradient weakens tomorrow. The weak trough will move eastward Friday. A ridge will build into the Great Lakes region into and through the weekend. As that ridge builds over the region, warmer than normal temperatures will advect into Michigan. This will allow temps to increase into next week. Anomalous warm air will bring max temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the weekend and 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the first half of next week. Lows will remain below freezing through the weekend but get above freezing next week. - Next Chance for precipitation next week Models continue to have the large upper level low moving through the southern US from Sunday into early next week. A shallow clipper will sweep through southern Canada during this timeframe. However southern Michigan will remain solidly between these two features and will be bifurcated. If the clipper shifts a little further south, there is a slight chance for mixed precipitation. However, a downward trend continues that this occurs. So not expecting any precipitation at this time. Zonal flow will then dominate the pattern early next week with dry warm air continuing into mid next week. The next chance for precipitation will be a system that moves through the upper midwest mid next week. Models diverge on timing though ensembles do show a decent chance for precipitation through that timeframe. The question for that system is the position of the low. Depending where it is situated will determine not only how much precipitation SW michigan gets but what type. So there is some confidence that we will see some precipitation by mid next week, however, what type and how much remains in question. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026 With the exception of JXN, predominantly MVFR conditions are expected through late evening. JXN will likely see a mix of VFR/MVFR. Satellite trends suggest raising cigs above 2kft for all sites this afternoon. Between the tendency for lake driven cloud cover to persist longer than expected, HREF guidance, and NBM guidance which handles lake effect stratocu well, have gone pessimistic and kept all terminals except LAN/JXN MVFR through the TAF period. They could go VFR late tonight but confidence in that is low. LAN/JXN being further inland are likely to go VFR after 05z. Gusty winds to 20 knots will diminish late this afternoon with winds aob 10 knots following into Thursday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion


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