863
FXUS63 KGRR 051923
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
223 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing drizzle likely tonight followed by snow showers Friday
- Cold with lake effect snow along the lakeshore this weekend
- Moderating temperatures early next week with precipitation
possible Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026
- Freezing drizzle likely tonight followed by snow showers Friday
Light snow is ongoing across West Michigan this afternoon driven by
warm air advection and an associated upper-level PV maxima. Low-
level water vapor imagery shows a mid-level dry slot across
Wisconsin set to reach West Michigan late this afternoon into this
evening. This will dry out the DGZ, with it not resaturating until
after 06z Friday. With ample low-level moisture, any forcing will
allow for a period of freezing drizzle/mist across the area.
Greatest confidence is the northwest half of our forecast area
(Allegan to Kent to Montcalm counties and north) where a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect. This is where visibility
guidance such as the NBM, LAMP, and MAV guidance places the best
signal along with BUFKIT cross sections showing the best low-level
forcing. Less of a signal for low- level forcing exists in BUFKIT
overviews south and east of the current advisory so will let
subsequent shifts pull the trigger on an expansion if confidence
increases.
Deep moisture returns with a second mid-level wave resulting in a
change back over to snow as the DGZ resaturates. With the wave
giving us a glancing blow from the west, additional light snow is
expected Friday morning. An arctic front then crosses through the
area during the day Friday. This could bring snow squall-like
showers as weak destabilization occurs along the front, though
SBCAPE < 40 J/kg is on the weak side. Expect 2-4" of snow in the
advisory area, and 1-3" across the rest of West Michigan. Post
frontal cold air advection will drive gusty winds across the area in
the 30-40 mph range.
- Cold with lake effect snow along the lakeshore this weekend
The arctic front brings in a much colder airmass Friday into
Saturday as 850mb temps crash to near -20C. This will bring lows to
near zero by Saturday morning with wind chills possibly below zero.
This cold will generate at least some lake effect snow showers,
however conditions are not favorable for significant accumulations
due to a multitude of factors. We are not in our favorable cyclonic
flow pattern, low-level moisture is marginal, and there is little
synoptic support to lift inversion heights. The flow pattern goes
predominantly northerly this weekend, which will keep lake effect
snow showers mainly near the lakeshore. The arrival of surface and
upper-level ridging, and marginal to poor moisture, may actually
result in periods of sunshine inland over the weekend.
- Moderating temperatures with precipitation possible Wednesday
The arrival of upper-level ridging from the west and associated
southerly flow will lead to temperatures moderating into early next
week. 850mb temps likely climb above zero by Tuesday translating to
surface temps topping out near forty. This will be in conjunction
with a shift from out continental arctic airmass this weekend to
maritime polar which is generally warmer as we tap into Pacific air.
There are some signals for a system that could bring a wintry mix
sometime Wednesday into Thursday. However, cluster analysis suggests
there is still notable uncertainty as to when troughing displaces
the ridge, and by extension sends this system into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026
Light snow continues to fall across the region as a short wave
aloft moves across Lower MI. RH profiles indicate that the DGZ
will become unsaturated this afternoon and evening which will
result in some freezing drizzle mixed with the snow. Total amount
of ice looks to be around a hundredth or two as we move into the
morning hours Friday. IFR conditions are expected much of the
period.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ037>039-
043>045-050-051-056-057-064.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
