424
FXUS63 KGRR 100412
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1112 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Small chance of freezing rain Early Tuesday north of US-10
- Warm front then and low chances for precipitation Tuesday night
- Next chance for accumulating snow this weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
- Small chance of freezing rain Early Tuesday north of US-10
Forecast remains consistent on a wedge of warm air moving over
most of Michigan tonight into tomorrow. Soundings north of Big
Rapids show a small signal for Freezing rain. The DGZ remains
Saturated, however the temps do wedge above the 0 isotherm late
tonight, early Tuesday. If wet bulbing occurs, then there will be
enough condensation for rain to fall and then freeze as SFC
temperatures along US 10 will remain in the low to mid 20s. The
big caveat is that there is very little moisture. So it will be
difficult to eek out any precipitation. The latest HREF Fram shows
this. WPC does show a slight probability accordingly. Any amounts
that due occur will be a Trace and would fall early tomorrow
morning. The highest chance will be in Clare county, north of
Clare. So any impacts could effect the morning commute in that
area. South of US 10, the chances for any freezing precipitation
diminish.
- Warm front then and low chances for precipitation Tuesday night
The aforementioned warm front will move through the region
through the first half of Tuesday. A cold front will quickly move
in its wake late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will shift
to the northwest with 850 mb temps dropping to -12C.
Light lake effect snow will be possible through the first half
of Tuesday evening through Mason county along the frontal
boundary. A lack of moisture and depth in the DGZ will limit
amounts. Any showers should be relatively short lived and should
be light considering the lack of moisture overall and weak
instability.
- Next chance for accumulating snow late this weekend
Models continue to track a low through the Ohio valley region
this weekend. There remains some questions on track of the low,.
However there continues to be a trend of shifting it to the south.
So while synoptic bands of snow will be possible, the region
could miss out if it trends southward. Depending how it tracks,
there could be quite the mix of precipitation. Some Ensembles
bring significant snowfall to the I 96 corridor. However, it is to
far out to settle on any amount ranges.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
Mid and high clouds will cover the terminals overnight. Strong
winds aloft ahead of a cold front will create LLWS overnight. That
cold front will move across the terminals after 12z Tuesday
bringing an MVFR cloud deck with it that will remain in place for
the rest of the day. There`s quite a bit of dry air in place and
so the front should not bring any precipitation with it.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...04
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
