800
FXUS63 KGRR 080702
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
301 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Earlier rain chances Thursday; Slight chance of mixed precip Friday
- Much warmer Sunday/Monday with periodic chances for rain
- Rain chances continue next week while cooling off
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
- Earlier rain chances Thursday; Slight chance of mixed precip Friday
After a cool day on Tuesday, we are watching changes taking place
this morning that will bring warmer temperatures to the area today.
The transition is marked by the narrow band of precipitation over
Eastern Iowa, Southwest Wisconsin, and Northwest Illinois this
morning. This is the leading edge of the warmer air aloft that will
pushing toward the area this morning.
This precipitation, even though could be somewhat wintry with some
snow toward Ludington, should not cause any impacts. First of all,
moisture below 5k ft is quite limited over our forecast area. This
means precipitation rates will be mainly light. Also, ground and
road sfc temperatures are above freezing, so the rates should not
overcome the relatively warmer ground. This precipitation will move
quickly out early this afternoon.
The next chance for precipitation now looks focused on tonight, vs.
what looked like a late tonight and Thursday morning event
yesterday. The cold front with the low that the warm front moving
through today is associated with will come in a bit quicker. The NW
2/3rds of the area will see rain tonight, and will be done by 12z
Thu. The far SE portion of the area now should see the rain end by
noon. This looks to be just a batch of light April showers with less
than half an inch or rain expected.
This front will get hung up south of the state Thursday night,
before a jet streak moves by and interacts with it late Thursday
night and Friday morning. This system will mostly be uneventful too,
with the caveat that we could see some minor impacts up across our
NE counties around daybreak Friday. As the RRQ of the upper jet
streak induces the precipitation, the lower levels may be cold
enough for the precipitation to be some snow. The NBM blend is not
showing this, but many of the Euro ensemble members are. Would not
be surprised if a inch or two on grassy areas occurs to the NE of
Grand Rapids.
- Much warmer Sunday/Monday with periodic chances for rain
Saturday we will see a break in the precipitation chances as
confluent flow aloft and a fairly strong sfc ridge move over the
area. The air behind the Friday system is not that cold, so temps
should be mostly in the 50s.
We see a somewhat similar setup in the pattern for Sunday as today.
Early Sunday, we will see a wing of warm air advection aloft
generate some showers that will move quickly to the NE. We will then
see warmer temperatures in the wake of this feature, but much warmer
than today. We are looking at 850 mb temps warming to around +12C by
Sunday afternoon. This would support highs in the 70s away from Lake
Michigan with a flow from the SW.
The upper flow will remain from the SW on Monday, as will the sfc
flow. This will continue to support very warm temperatures for the
beginning of April. We will see the moist axis move in, and combine
with short wave activity in the SW flow aloft to produce periods of
showers and storms.
- Rain chances continue next week while cooling off
The cold front with this system will push through the area on
Tuesday, squashing the very warm temperatures a bit compared to
Sunday and Monday. This is the result of the southern periphery of a
northern stream short wave pushing the front south. The front will
not go far through Wednesday, and will be close enough to allow for
shower chances to continue as short wave ride along it just to our
south.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
The main impacts to aviation interests over the 24 hours will be
focused on various wind related parameters. VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the next 24 hours.
The forecast is starting with thin high clouds overhead. We will
see mid clouds move in from the SW by 12-13z that could contain
some light rain for all of the sites except KLAN and KJXN. KMKG
will have the best chance of rain, and maybe even some light snow
right at the onset. This should not cause any impacts with little
to no moisture below 5k ft.
The light rain will move out from the terminals quickly by 17z or
so. This will leave some mid clouds around 5k and 10-15k ft. Winds
will become gusty by the time the rain moves out. Gusts up to
about 30 knots will be likely, highest toward KMKG.
The winds will continue through the evening, maybe diminishing
some inland after sunset. A wind core of 50-60 knots will come in
after 00z at 2k ft agl. We have added low level wind shear due to
the magnitude and slight chance in direction.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
Gale warning for this morning through Thursday morning continues to
look good for areas near and north of Holland, with Small Craft
Advisories south of Holland also looking good. Winds will be on the
increase this morning, and will continue through tonight with the
low level jet moving through tonight. This is a warm air advection
pattern, so we will not realize all of the wind at the sfc. It still
will be formidable.
Once winds and waves diminish Thursday, we will be in for a decent
break from the winds and waves for at least a couple of days. Our
next marine headline event looks to arrive Saturday night into Sunday
ahead of the next system pushing in over the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
No significant rain is expected until Wednesday night and Thursday
when one quarter of an inch is forecast across the Muskegon Basin
with lesser amounts to the south across the Grand and Kalamazoo
river basins. This should not have a significant effect on the
rivers, where crests from the heavy rainfall last Saturday will
continue moving downstream across the rivers.
Another wet weather pattern is established early next week and
some flooding is possible,
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Thursday for LMZ844-845.
Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
