327
FXUS63 KGRR 262000
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
300 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow & blowing snow tonight/Tuesday, cold wind chills
- Periods of snow through Friday
- Cold this week, not as cold as last week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
- Snow & blowing snow tonight/Tuesday, cold wind chills
Radar shows light lake effect snow showers falling over the cwa.
H8 temperatures are still creating enough over-lake instability
for snow showers, but the boundary layer is a bit dry, which is
why we aren`t seeing more in the way of accumulations.
The next clipper will move through tonight and bring another surge
of arctic air with it. This clipper will also bring a fairly tight
pressure gradient, resulting in gusty winds late tonight and
Tuesday; ECMWF ensemble mean is near 35 mph. HREF snowfall progs
paint 1-3 inches of synoptic snow after midnight tonight west of
US-131 and an inch or so east of there. There could be isolated 4
inch amounts. Bufkit omega profiles show a well defined omega
bullseye in the DGZ around 09z tonight at GRR which should result
in some heavier snow in prior to sunrise. Of course, this will
have a detrimental impact on the morning commute. Given the
combination of snow (another 1-2 inches Tuesday) and wind, we`ve
issued a winter weather advisory for the western half of the cwa
from midnight through 7 pm Tuesday. I wouldn`t be surprised if the
advisory is extended in time because lake effect snow will be
ongoing for a couple of days.
The southeast cwa will won`t see the synoptic snow until later
tonight and as a result will see colder temperatures. When
combined with the wind, wind chill temperatures will fall to -15
to -20 Tuesday morning; a cold weather advisory is in effect for
tonight and Tuesday morning.
- Periods of snow through Friday
H8 temperatures remain aob -20c through Friday which means lake
effect snow will continue. Synoptic enhancement of the lake effect
snow will occur Tuesday night and again Wednesday night as short
waves rotate through the upper trough and across the cwa. Each
wave will increase inversion heights for several hours resulting
in more accumulation. By Thursday, boundary layer winds become
more northerly which will pull the lake effect snow bands westward
toward the lake shore.
- Cold this week, not as cold as last week
Highs will be in the mid teens this week which is warmer than the
single digits of last week, but still much colder than the normal
highs around 30. We`re not going to see 30 for a while, but we`ll
likely see lower to mid 20s high temperatures Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
An area of light snow is moving east and will cause brief periods
of MVFR visbys over the next few hours. MVFR cigs are also
expected before improving to VFR this evening. A system moving
across the area after 03z will lead to MVFR to IFR snow across the
terminals, with more MVFR to IFR snow behind the system as lake
effect snow ramps up after 09-12z. In addition, wind gusts of
25-35 knots are likely to result in blowing and drifting snow. The
greatest chance for IFR conditions is at MKG, GRR, and AZO where
snow will be the heaviest.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
Tuesday for MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday
for MIZ058-059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
